LTA's NFL PLays

[Love The Action]

Wow we just got tebowed

Un-fuking-believable. I can't fuking believe this shit. How is this possible? And don't say God

[P25]

Back to back weeks, Rex Grossman alone has cost us 2x. Last week, he plays out of his mind to screw our under and this week he fumbles on his own 1 fuking yard line to screw today's under. God I hate him.

Yes...and last week, I believe it was at/near the end of the game as well! Something happened in the Cowboys game too (not sure if that was a pick of yours I tailed or not)...can't remember now though.

[GChild]

Agree 100%



I don't think he was talking about Chi-town

I hope not

No I live in Chicago I was talking about Roy Williams he's garbage!!!

[Love The Action]

No I live in Chicago I was talking about Roy Williams he's garbage!!!

Williams is true garbage. The funny thing is he still talks like he's hot shit. Cutler can't stand him from what I heard....

[GChild]

Williams is true garbage. The funny thing is he still talks like he's hot shit. Cutler can't stand him from what I heard....

I'm sure he can't. Let's get these late game plays my man!!

[Love The Action]

I'm sure he can't. Let's get these late game plays my man!!

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 13

Play #1

Eagles/Seahawks under (44) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Got the number I wanted. Without Vick, Maclin, Rice and an dinged up McCoy, I just dont see this one hiiting 45 tonight. I have this total set at 41 so I am rolling with the value and playing the under for 1x. I may also tease Seattle with the under as well. Good luck.

Play #2

Bengals/Steelers under (43) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I just don't know how long Dalton can continue playing this well against top defenses. AJ Green is a monster, but he will be facing the Steelers for the second time now and I expect them to have a better read on his tendencies. Rookie quarterbacks tend to fade in the last month of the season as they are not used to playing this many games and I expect this "rookie wall" to hit Dalton and today is as good as any for a start since he's playing a Steelers defense that has really found its stride. Both teams aired it out last game, but I expect a little different strategy in this December game with playoff implications. It's time for ball control and defense and that is what I expect today from two teams that have the ability to play top notch defense. Both defenses are highly rated in advanced efficiency numbers and I expect those defenses to have success today. I have this set at 40.5 so I will take the value and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bears (-7) 1x (Locked) LOSS
Whether Palko or Orton is playing -- I think Palko will start the 1h and Orton the 2nd -- the Bears defense will be ready for this one. This is one where the defensive players know they can pad their stats and I expect that to happen. The Bears are a top 8 defense in defensive DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%, while KC is bottom 1/3 of the league. On offense, I expect a huge improvement from Hanie at home. I think being in Chicago is key as he will have the home crowd firmly behind him. I expect either a defensive or special teams score from the Bears today, which will prove the difference in this spread. Both Forte and Barber should have a solid day running the ball, which will create the play action passing opportunities that will foster Hanie's success. Plus, with his mobility, don't be surprised to see Martz run some rare rollouts which are generally not used in his offense. I have the Bears set at -8.5 and I love the home town team today. I am rolling with the Bears for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Texans under (38) 1x (Locked)WINNER
The Texans will be relying on the run today with the rookie Yates going at qb. However, Atlanta is a top 5 defense against the run in advanced efficiency stats and in conventional stats. Therefore, we have two team strengths matching up today and I expect that matchup to give us an edge on the under. Don't be surprised if we see both teams decide to play a slow tempo game looking to control the clock and win with defense and special teams. Atlanta's passing offense is solid, but has not been as dangerous this year with an ineffective Roddy White. Regardless, Houston has one of the best defenses in the league and is basically top 5 against both the pass and rush in conventional and advanced stats. They should be able to limit Atlanta's attack at home. I expect a defensive struggle today. I have this one set at 36 and we're getting 2 points of value and covering the key numbers of 37 and 38. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Ravens/Browns under (38) 1x (Locked)

The Ravens offense home/away splits are polar opposites where they average over 30 points at home and more than 10 less on the Road. However, that Baltimore defense can keep them in any game. Here is another low total under that I am riding based on the premise that we see more running and defense than an air it out philosophy. We have the Browns with a dinged up McCoy and not much behind him other than a dinged up Peyton Hills. I'm just not confident in the Browns offense at all, but for them to win they are going to need to pound the rock. I expect the same from the Balty offense because Cleveland has a very strong pass defense ranked top 10 in the league in passing defense EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I think we see a slower tempo game today by both teams. I have this one set at 36 and I'll take a shot on the under here with 2 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Packers/Giants over (53) 1x (Locked)

No time for an in-depth writeup as I have to watch the lines right now, but I will say that I just don't see the Giants injured secondary stopping Rodgers and that killer GB offensive attack. However, the Pack is susceptible on defense and with Bradshaw back that should create the play action vertical passing opportunities that are so critical to the Giants and Manning's success. I have this one set at the key number of 55 and I love getting this at 53 on the turf in nice weather with no wind. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Vikings (-1) 1x (Locked) LOSS
I am kicking myself for not locking in the Vikings at even money an hour ago, but I got greedy thinking that it would keep getting better as more Denver money came in. However, big steam hit the Vikings and I missed out. Nevertheless, week 2 of the Tebow fade is in full effect. I know Peterson isn't playing, but I don't think it matters as Von Miller is out for Denver which hurts that defense just as much. Von Miller has been a monster and a big reason that Denver has gone on this streak. On offense, I think Ponder is better than Tebow and I think the Vikings will finally wake up and force Tebow to beat them with his arm. Just pack the box and Tebow can't beat you. I am trusting Leslie Frazier to understand this simple concept. I have the Vikes set at -2, so not a ton of value here but this is all about my belief that Tebow cannot continue to lead this Denver to team to road wins game after game. They have to lose sometime and that time is today. I am rolling with the Vikes for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Jets/Redskins under (39) 1x (Locked) LOSS
I don't see this one going any higher, so I'm locking it up now. Bottom line is the Jets defense is still beloved by the advanced efficiency stats where they remain 5th in overall defensive EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%, while they are top 3 against the pass and top 10 against the run. I am not nor will ever be a believer in Grossman and I think Rex Ryan should be able to devise a blitz package to make that guy get happy feet. My concern is that the Jets force a few pick 6's or fumble recoveries for a touchdown. However, the Redskins defense is not at that top 5 level, but they are a top 11 defense overall and are very respectable against both the run and pass. I think that Redskins defense keeps them in the game and keeps this a low scoring game. I have this one set at 36.5, just below the key number of 37 so I have to take a shot on the low total under here. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Lions/Saints over (54) 1.5x (Locked)

I was hoping to get 53, but it never materialized. I should have locked this one in earlier this week but I messed up thinking it would come back down. However, it started to steam at Pinny and I wanted to get it at 54 before they added the hook. Bottom line is that the Saints offense is killer at home and the Lions defense will be handicapped without the presence of Suh. The Saints will have trouble with Megatron on the turf and the Smith has been better than I expected at RB. With Stafford's finger healing, I think his accuracy improves indoors tonight. I have this one set at 56, which is why I wanted 53 so bad. I am rolling with the over for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #10

Raiders/Dolphins over (43) 1x (Locked)WINNER
I've been waiting for a move on this line, but it's pretty much been at 43 with no movement today. I just think Miami's under streak ends today as Oakland comes to town with a bruising Michael Bush and a sharp Carson Palmer. However, that Oakland defense struggles against the run and I think the Dolphins rushing attack finds some success today. McClain should play, but I think perhaps he might not play as much. Regardless, I think Moore finds some success today through the air. I think we see a competitive game with both teams scoring 3 touchdowns or more. I have this one set at 45 with 2 points of value. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Added 0.50x to Play #9 for total of 1.5x Lions/Sains over (54). Correct units denoted above.

The Saints offense at home on that turf in the controlled environment is scary and I don't think a Suh-less Lions defense can stop Brees and Co. On other side, the Saints defense is vulnerable to a dangerous Lions offense with a healthier Stafford. I expect a shootout on SNF. Good luck.

[letsgo]

I love the over tonight, lets get em LTA!

[peterrr]

Good stuff LTA, hit 2 out of 3 of your picks on a parlay.. No insurance on the last game, letting it ride

[lonelynoob]

wtg LTA, nice picks today .... just need this gb / no overs parlay to finish a great day ..... GREAT capping !!!

[Love The Action]

Wow...Cleveland converts on 4th and 10 from the Baltimore 15 yard line by scoring a touchdown. Shit.

I sure hope Balty can run off these final four minutes without scoring a touchdown. We have a four point cushion for a push and 3 point cushion for a win. 4 minutes left. These are the types of games we have had some tough luck, so let's hope this ends our way....

[GChild]

Booooooom

[r1kkie]

Wow...Cleveland converts on 4th and 10 from the Baltimore 15 yard line by scoring a touchdown. Shit.

I sure hope Balty can run off these final four minutes without scoring a touchdown. We have a four point cushion for a push and 3 point cushion for a win. 4 minutes left. These are the types of games we have had some tough luck, so let's hope this ends our way....

Could have been ugly...

[Love The Action]

Wow...Cleveland converts on 4th and 10 from the Baltimore 15 yard line by scoring a touchdown. Shit.

I sure hope Balty can run off these final four minutes without scoring a touchdown. We have a four point cushion for a push and 3 point cushion for a win. 4 minutes left. These are the types of games we have had some tough luck, so let's hope this ends our way....

Nice!! Those are types of games we needed to win. All we need is this SNF over. Let's get it for a nice NFL week!

[Donnie Brasco]

Jason garrett is an idiot! But he won the game for me by doing it so it is all good!

[Louisvillekid1]

LTA,

you still like the over tonight @ 55?

keep up the good work

[Donnie Brasco]

For those like myself who hate taking public faves, fading the pubes today blindly on 70% or greater lopsided bets woulda made a fortune!

[Donnie Brasco]

Using sportsbookspy.com as a source you would be 8-1 with nyg looking good and detroit to go.

[Donnie Brasco]

Packers def is terrible! How on earth could you cap that game and think rodgers doesnt get it done by 6? After nyg poor recent offensive and defensive performances. I guess bradshaw, but is he worth a td LTA?

[Donnie Brasco]

9-1 now against 70%< pube plays, unreal!

[GChild]

9-1 now against 70%< pube plays, unreal!

Wow

[Donnie Brasco]

Check that, 8-1 with lions pending. Very impressive.

[Love The Action]

LTA,

you still like the over tonight @ 55?

keep up the good work

Yes, but not above 55. That's the max range for this one.

[mdfizzle]

What are your thoughts on the Saints -9

[Love The Action]

For those like myself who hate taking public faves, fading the pubes today blindly on 70% or greater lopsided bets woulda made a fortune!

Yeah, but unfortunately, blindly fading those all year would have you bankrupt.

[Dexter]

Check that, 8-1 with lions pending. Very impressive.

any public fav's from 51-69% are what you're fading?

good day LTA

[Donnie Brasco]

Yeah, but unfortunately, blindly fading those all year would have you bankrupt.

Wont do it blindly but i do pay attention to it. Yes nfl would have hurt up to this point but ncaaf if i am not mistaken woulda been pretty good.

[Donnie Brasco]

any public fav's from 51-69% are what you're fading?

good day LTA

Not blindly. But mostly i have affinity for 70% or greater. Ncaab has been good to me with home dogs of 5-15 points getting 30% or less of action.

[blaze4g]

LTA whats ur lean for mondays game? im thinking under 38.5

[Donnie Brasco]

I am on lions +8.5 tonight but not soley fading public.

[Love The Action]

Not blindly. But mostly i have affinity for 70% or greater. Ncaab has been good to me with home dogs of 5-15 points getting 30% or less of action.

Wont do it blindly but i do pay attention to it. Yes nfl would have hurt up to this point but ncaaf if i am not mistaken woulda been pretty good.

Nice! Something to follow next season.

Good luck tonight. I'm rooting for the over and Detroit so we can both cash!

[mdfizzle]

Not blindly. But mostly i have affinity for 70% or greater. Ncaab has been good to me with home dogs of 5-15 points getting 30% or less of action.

I have a similar system for college football that has been pretty successful. My criteria is 60% or more on the away team with a spread of less than 9.

[Donnie Brasco]

LTA whats ur lean for mondays game? im thinking under 38.5

39@5dimes fwiw

[Donnie Brasco]

Dont think i have bet niners once this year. What a mistake!

[suicidekings]

I agree on the total for the Saints game, however odd point to note: the 1Q U10.5 is getting heavily juiced at Pinnacle. The 1H and GM lines are both juiced over. I'm taking the 1Q Over 10.5 (+120) small, and if that fails to cash, I should be able to get a good value on the total in live betting. Just an idea for anyone looking at the current 55 available and on the fence about it.