LTA's NFL PLays

[GChild]

I love to pounce!!!

[jaeguyoon]

damn it's at 43 on my local book.

[Pick'nParlays]

what a crappy tnf matchup.

[SlickRick1382]

Just hit 44 on my book that follows 5 Dimes

[Love The Action]

I was leaning towards the under, but after Seattle's display last weekend (trading scores back and forth in the 2nd half), the number is scary. Any leans on the side LTA?

Lean Seattle, but would only play them above +3. Out of curiosity, why do you think the result in the redskin game has a bearing on tonights game?

Bol

[Love The Action]

Someone pm'd me that the tout "lang" is on the under and therefore I should not play it.

I never take such factors into account. Do you guys really avoid plays just because one tout or another is on a play? Is "lang" the worlds biggest mush or something?

[Pluthero]

Just FYI, Seattle usually has one of the biggest home/away splits in the NFL.

[Love The Action]

Just hit 44 on my book that follows 5 Dimes

5d still at 43.5....

[Love The Action]

Just FYI, Seattle usually has one of the biggest home/away splits in the NFL.

Splits of what? O/u, ats, scoring, etc.?

[Pluthero]

Splits of what? O/u, ats, scoring, etc.?

Sorry, if you just look at point differential (I realize it's a primitive way of calculating home field advantage but it does make it easy), the past couple of years they have a larger home vs. away spread than just about anyone.
It's not relavent to your under, but you also mentioned you were leaning Seattle and that's one reason I am too.

[Love The Action]

Sorry, if you just look at point differential (I realize it's a primitive way of calculating home field advantage but it does make it easy), the past couple of years they have a larger home vs. away spread than just about anyone.
It's not relavent to your under, but you also mentioned you were leaning Seattle and that's one reason I am too.

Yep...seattle has a strong home field advantage. GL

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 13

Play #1

Eagles/Seahawks under (44) 1x (Locked)

Got the number I wanted. Without Vick, Maclin, Rice and an dinged up McCoy, I just dont see this one hiiting 45 tonight. I have this total set at 41 so I am rolling with the value and playing the under for 1x. I may also tease Seattle with the under as well. Good luck.

[killersweet]

Lean Seattle, but would only play them above +3. Out of curiosity, why do you think the result in the redskin game has a bearing on tonights game?

Bol

I thought Seattle's defense is very good at home and they played that way in the 1st half and then allowed Wash (struggling offence) to score quite a bit. And eagles do have some big time playmakers. s,
anyways, I will not bet over with these teams. Goodluck with ur play tonight

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 13

Play #1

Eagles/Seahawks under (44) 1x (Locked)

Got the number I wanted. Without Vick, Maclin, Rice and an dinged up McCoy, I just dont see this one hiiting 45 tonight. I have this total set at 41 so I am rolling with the value and playing the under for 1x. I may also tease Seattle with the under as well. Good luck.

Nice...about 20 minutes after locking in the under (44), the few major outlets that were at 44 such as Legends, Cris and Betonline all dropped down to 43.5, while Pinny and 5d started juicing the under ever so slightly at 43.5. As I stated in my post above, this play was all about getting 44 and as soon as that number was available, sharp money pounced and dropped it right back down.

I am sticking with the under and will not be teasing it with Seattle. Let's get this under gentlemen. Good luck.

[Pick'nParlays]

What was VY thinking

[Love The Action]

Philadelphia truly has one of the worst defenses in the league. They can't maintain assignments or tackle. Fundamentally, they are horrible which is a direct indictment of their coaching. I capped them having more success against a ball control attack by Seattle. However, Seattle has come out more aggressively than I though with a emphasis on the pass. That, and Philly is unable to tackle Lynch. Hopefully, we can sweat out a winner.

[Pick'nParlays]

lets get a stop here. cant afford more than 24 first half

[Love The Action]

Only Philly could make Tarvaris Jackson look like Tom Brady

[Love The Action]

VY pick 6 to burn the under by one point

Time to go to bed and forget about this disgusting game. The Eagles are trash and both sides of the ball with no heart. Desean Jackson is a scumbag and their defense cannot stop a bottomfeeder like Tarvaris Jackson. Fuking pathetic.

[alamo]

VY pick 6 to burn the under by one point Time to go to bed and forget about this disgusting game. The Eagles are trash and both sides of the ball with no heart. Desean Jackson is a scumbag and their defense cannot stop a bottomfeeder like Tarvaris Jackson. Fuking pathetic.

I will second that about Desean Jackson. He should be benched for the rest of the season for his attitude.

[Redscot]

VY pick 6 to burn the under by one point

Time to go to bed and forget about this disgusting game. The Eagles are trash and both sides of the ball with no heart. Desean Jackson is a scumbag and their defense cannot stop a bottomfeeder like Tarvaris Jackson. Fuking pathetic.

Sup my man, tough loss....looking forward to tonight's big NCAA play .

Wow, what an implosion by the Eagles this year. Can't believe how they have packed it in, showing little heart and character. The defense's arm tackling of Lynch illustrated their lack of commitment and conviction.

On another note this weekend has some really interesting teasing opportunities, as you have pointed out in your thread using the Wong principles (I know you include the 3) has proven to be successful over time against the sharp NFL lines. Some games to potentially keep an eye on IMO:

Teasing:
- Tenn to over a TD
- Houston to the 9 range
- Denver to over a TD (their D-fence should keep this one close) Like this one teased with the under.
- Jax to the 9 range (this one makes me the most nervous as S.D. has the potential to breakout at some point, coaching change etc.) Still should be solid.

Looking forward to your plays bro, keep on grinding.

[killersweet]

VY pick 6 to burn the under by one point

Time to go to bed and forget about this disgusting game. The Eagles are trash and both sides of the ball with no heart. Desean Jackson is a scumbag and their defense cannot stop a bottomfeeder like Tarvaris Jackson. Fuking pathetic.

That game should have gone under the number man. Can't believe how close it was at the end. Eagles are trash.
Good luck with your weekend plays

[815Sox]

The Eagles really surprised me, I am not a fan of any Philly team (esp the Flyers and Eagles), so it pained me to admit that the Eagles were probably going to be very good this year. I was wrong.

[jas19illini]

LTA, looking for one team to tease with Chicago tomorrow. Thoughts? I feel really good about my Bears tomorrow. After major injuries the Bears always seem to lose that first game, but get back into form in their second game. Throw in home field advantage and a KC who really laid everything out on the line last week against PIT and it all adds up nicley for the Bears, imo.

Im thinking SF or the NO Over.

[Pick'nParlays]

liking this Det/No over....

[fecgp40]

LTA, looking for one team to tease with Chicago tomorrow. Thoughts? I feel really good about my Bears tomorrow. After major injuries the Bears always seem to lose that first game, but get back into form in their second game. Throw in home field advantage and a KC who really laid everything out on the line last week against PIT and it all adds up nicley for the Bears, imo. Im thinking SF or the NO Over.

What do you think about under 37 in chi/kc? Two backup QB's with gusty winds up to 30mph...

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 13

Play #1

Eagles/Seahawks under (44) 1x (Locked)

Got the number I wanted. Without Vick, Maclin, Rice and an dinged up McCoy, I just dont see this one hiiting 45 tonight. I have this total set at 41 so I am rolling with the value and playing the under for 1x. I may also tease Seattle with the under as well. Good luck.

Play #2

Bengals/Steelers under (43) 1x (Locked)

I have this set at 40.5 so I will take the value and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[GChild]

Great comeback last night LTA let's keep it rolling today!

[Redscot]

Mornin' LTA, wishing you a great Football Sunday, will be tuning in for your picks . Hope the fam is doing well .

[Love The Action]

Great comeback last night LTA let's keep it rolling today!

I didn't see the game, but it sounded like we got some luck for once with that Fresno State/SDST over....finally!


GL today

[Love The Action]

Mornin' LTA, wishing you a great Football Sunday, will be tuning in for your picks . Hope the fam is doing well .

Same to you bud. Hope all is well.

These crazy games in football are wearing on me Is April here yet? NBA playoffs and MLB start is my favorite time of the betting year!

GL today!

[Donnie Brasco]

Miami -3
Cinncy +6.5
Zona +4.5
Detroit +8.5
Cleveland under 38.5
Bills over 42.5

[lakerboy]

Same to you bud. Hope all is well.

These crazy games in football are wearing on me Is April here yet? NBA playoffs and MLB start is my favorite time of the betting year!

GL today!

Its because you pretty much only bet totals. That is an appetite for a short life. I always love your writeups. GL with your plays today LTA

[Love The Action]

Its because you pretty much only bet totals. That is an appetite for a short life. I always love your writeups. GL with your plays today LTA

Somebody's gotta do it

In NBA and MLB, the totals markets are a little softer and easier to beat. In football, it's a heart attack on every game. I love it though.

Good luck bud

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 13

Play #1

Eagles/Seahawks under (44) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Got the number I wanted. Without Vick, Maclin, Rice and an dinged up McCoy, I just dont see this one hiiting 45 tonight. I have this total set at 41 so I am rolling with the value and playing the under for 1x. I may also tease Seattle with the under as well. Good luck.

Play #2

Bengals/Steelers under (43) 1x (Locked)

I have this set at 40.5 so I will take the value and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bears (-7) 1x (Locked)

Whether Palko or Orton is playing -- I think Palko will start the 1h and Orton the 2nd -- the Bears defense will be ready for this one. This is one where the defensive players know they can pad their stats and I expect that to happen. The Bears are a top 8 defense in defensive DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%, while KC is bottom 1/3 of the league. On offense, I expect a huge improvement from Hanie at home. I think being in Chicago is key as he will have the home crowd firmly behind him. I expect either a defensive or special teams score from the Bears today, which will prove the difference in this spread. Both Forte and Barber should have a solid day running the ball, which will create the play action passing opportunities that will foster Hanie's success. Plus, with his mobility, don't be surprised to see Martz run some rare rollouts which are generally not used in his offense. I have the Bears set at -8.5 and I love the home town team today. I am rolling with the Bears for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Texans under (38) 1x (Locked)

The Texans will be relying on the run today with the rookie Yates going at qb. However, Atlanta is a top 5 defense against the run in advanced efficiency stats and in conventional stats. Therefore, we have two team strengths matching up today and I expect that matchup to give us an edge on the under. Don't be surprised if we see both teams decide to play a slow tempo game looking to control the clock and win with defense and special teams. Atlanta's passing offense is solid, but has not been as dangerous this year with an ineffective Roddy White. Regardless, Houston has one of the best defenses in the league and is basically top 5 against both the pass and rush in conventional and advanced stats. They should be able to limit Atlanta's attack at home. I expect a defensive struggle today. I have this one set at 36 and we're getting 2 points of value and covering the key numbers of 37 and 38. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.