2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

[Derty D]

DAL-2.5/21.5(-115) Heritage

If you would have given me Dallas+18.5 I would have laughed and bet it.

But seeing how mistake-prone they are on defense, I don't think they keep NYG from scoring.

Hmmmm....

[fecgp40]

I highly recommend a 5* play on Dallas in the second half. Giants habitually go into a shell with the lead and will undoubtedly go to a cover-2.. or cover-3.. As bad as this looked in the first half Dallas had Three great opportunities to turn the tide. Two fumbles they could have had had and then capitalizing on the missed FG. Dallas did take Cruz out of the game in the second quarter. Giants under Coughlin have always been very predictable with the lead... and I strongly believe Dallas will make a game of this yet.

Question... If the Giants do the same stupid stuff game after game, don't you think their coaching staff would make some adjustments so they don't go into a shell? Dallas is trying to make a game of it, and I don't disagree with you John, but I just don't understand why the Giants go into the "prevent you from winning" defense.

[fecgp40]

oh my... qb sneak??? damn...

[cdnicholson]

Cha-Ching..... Thanks and keep them coming....

[John Ryan]

Question... If the Giants do the same stupid stuff game after game, don't you think their coaching staff would make some adjustments so they don't go into a shell? Dallas is trying to make a game of it, and I don't disagree with you John, but I just don't understand why the Giants go into the "prevent you from winning" defense.

I don't get it either, but the Ginats and Eagles are perhaps the most notable. Eagles below five fourth quarter leads. Dallas just shot themselves in the foot last night. I am not convinced that the Giants are a good team yet and they certainly are not a good team without Manning's incredible season. VERY frustrating game, but at least got back a 5* play on the second half... That quarterback sneak on 4th down was pittiful and we will never know, but if they score there to make it 21-14 the Giant choke factor certainly comes into to play. Giants side line was not good at that point. But, it was a LOSS.

[p19101]

What are you talking about? Giants dominated last night...

Giants will send home Falcons just as easy and then give GB a run for their money. So much reminds me of the 2007 season it's spooky. As long as they don't get the Saints I think they have good chances to reach the SB.

[austintx05]

good thing the giants don't play the redskins in the playoffs

[John Ryan]

I have to say this and get it off my chest. Did Andrew Luck essentially say to the Colts "Don't draft me if I am going to sit behind Peyton Manning'? When asked about that situation he stumbled through it... There are TWO better quarterbacks and Weeden proved that last night in my opinion.... Is this Ryan Leaf story all over again? I just could not believe why he did not say.. wow, that would be great to be drafted No. 1 and then learn the NFL game from arguably the best quarterback in history, who could end up being is offensive coordinator down the road. Does Luck realize how much FASTER the NFL version is compared to the College Ranks?

[upscope]

What are you talking about? Giants dominated last night...

Giants will send home Falcons just as easy and then give GB a run for their money. So much reminds me of the 2007 season it's spooky. As long as they don't get the Saints I think they have good chances to reach the SB.

Homers are hilarious sometimes....

[p19101]

good thing the giants don't play the redskins in the playoffs

It's a sign!

GB lost to Redskins last year then went to win the SB!

[p19101]

Homers are hilarious sometimes....

Yeah I got told that the same thing in 2007 as well, however I got the last laugh that time

[John Ryan]

while we are looking at 'exotic' situations. Note that four of the last six Super Bowl winners have no cheer leaders. So, that should narrow down our search.. I know Giants and Packers do not have cheer leaders. I'll see about the rest

[John Ryan]

There are six teams in the NFL that don't have cheerleaders: the Bears, Browns, Giants, Lions, Packers and Steelers. Those franchises have won four of the last six Super Bowls and have made up half of the Super Bowl participants during that span.

Last year, Green Bay beat Pittsburgh in the first-ever Super Bowl that did not include cheerleaders from either squad. The Steelers won Super Bowls XLIII (2009) and XL (2006), while the Giants stunned the undefeated New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII (2008). The Bears played in Super Bowl XLI (2007), but not having cheerleaders wasn't enough to overcome the Indianapolis Colts.

[John Ryan]

How teams without cheerleaders have fared in recent Super Bowls.

TEAM Super Bowl Result
Packers XLV Won
Steelers XLV Lost
Steelers XLIII Won
Giants XLII Won
Bears XLI Lost
Steelers XL Won

[shopbar picks]

wow did you skip your meds today

[p19101]

Haha that's some fun stuff

[John Ryan]

Yeh.... I actually saw this in the Wall Street Journal and thought is was a laugher to say the least. Funniest thing is that the Bears last had cheerleaders in 1985, which is the last year they won the Super Bowl. So, perhaps there is a sub-theorem stating that in the absence of cheer leaders for more than 10 years and with no SB appearances would reinstate the cheer leading squad for the benefit of team morale.... Now, there is something that has tremendous handicapping value ... ROFL... I will get serious here tomorrow with the plays for the playoffs and I am confident they are going to do very well. The matchups I have ben studying all week have given me strong opinions that are backed up in a big way by the simulator. Stay tuned.

[Swinging Johnson]

John, big fan here pal. I promise I'm not cutting into your thread but just wanted to let you know I gave you and my boy Geno (of Geno's Picks) props in my article and podcast http://www.sbrforum.com/nfl-football...eview-a-22737/

[John Ryan]

John, big fan here pal. I promise I'm not cutting into your thread but just wanted to let you know I gave you and my boy Geno (of Geno's Picks) props in my article and podcast http://www.sbrforum.com/nfl-football...eview-a-22737/

awesome ..... I had heard the grape vine that Geno had mentioned me all in good fun of course, but he will get the return favor soon.. laugh Ha Ha.. I really appreciate it and I will do the same.

[John Ryan]

How about McElroy's comments being the No. 4 quarterback on the Jets and his comments. That took guts.. he should get an ESPY for that line. wow... was he released before making these statements? I had often wondered if the Jets/Eagles - even the Giants didn't have some big time 'ticker' issues... when i played we did not call it heart.. or lack of heart.. we always said that guy has a big time ticker.. or habve to question his ticker.. not all the time of course, but point is that McElroy has nothing to gain by not telling the truth and it really is only his opinion.

[81_84]

How about McElroy's comments being the No. 4 quarterback on the Jets and his comments. That took guts.. he should get an ESPY for that line. wow... was he released before making these statements? I had often wondered if the Jets/Eagles - even the Giants didn't have some big time 'ticker' issues... when i played we did not call it heart.. or lack of heart.. we always said that guy has a big time ticker.. or habve to question his ticker.. not all the time of course, but point is that McElroy has nothing to gain by not telling the truth and it really is only his opinion.

I don't think its opinion at this point. It's one thing for me to say it , but when he says it , along with his coach , there's something there. The jets as a team , especially on offense have very little mental toughness. I and many others have been saying this for a while now. Just think about it , you don't think those players see right through fat Rex? That team has serious issues. There's no way those players can take Rex serious when he puts sancheeze under center every Sunday. Problem is , at least imho , they blew their load over the last few years. Very few teams can call themselves contenders year in qbs year out. Plus and again this is just my opinion. Their not that good of a team to begin with. They overpaid for a lot of guys and have aging team. The jets won't win anything with rex and sancheeze.

[John Ryan]

Ok. Playoffs are nearly here. I will do my best to get the Saturday picks up tonight and perhaps even Sunday's too. Lot's of data to delve through and constant news on injured players... this time of year requires even more research effort, but it is ALWAYS worth it.

if anyone hears anything on the net about injured players; i.e Roethlisberger and the like; please don't hesitate to share it with all of us. These type of news via the internet is a powerful tool for all of us. The more we know the better we will do .

[Jedi Mind Picks]

NFL Network's Jeff Darlington reports that Broncos SS Brian Dawkins' neck injury is "career threatening."
"I continue to hear from my sources that this injury is career threatening and there is very little expectation that he will be able to return if the Broncos do indeed advance," Darlington reported on Around the League Friday. Dawkins may be headed for injured reserve shortly. David Bruton and rookie Quinton Carter will be the Broncos' safeties throughout the playoffs. -Rotoworld.com

[Jedi Mind Picks]

ESPN's Ed Werder reports Brady Quinn took eight first-team reps in Broncos practice this week, and that it was more than usual.

Brady Quinn has been getting "roughly half the first-team reps in practice this week," a source tells ProFootballTalk.com.
Over the final three regular season games, Tim Tebow tossed four interceptions against one touchdown and lost three fumbles. The Broncos went 0-3. It appears the Broncos are now preparing a backup plan in case Tebow faceplants against the Steelers on Sunday. We already know that the organization hasn't been in Tebow's corner since jump street._- Rotoworld.com

There were many other conflicting reports...

[Jedi Mind Picks]

Falcons LCB Brent Grimes (knee) returned to Friday's practice on a limited basis and is listed as questionable for the Wild Card round.
Atlanta's best cornerback, Grimes wouldn't have practiced on Friday unless he was preparing to play against the Giants. The Falcons may work Grimes out before the game to make sure he's okay, but he should start on Sunday.-Rotoworld.com

[Jedi Mind Picks]

Steelers C Maurkice Pouncey (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's Wild Card round game at Denver.
Doug Legursky will move over from left guard, weakening two positions with mistake-prone Chris Kemoeatu likely to enter the starting lineup. The Steelers had hoped to have their offensive line intact, as they've averaged six more points per game with all hands on deck this season.-Rotoworld.com

[John Ryan]

Steelers C Maurkice Pouncey (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's Wild Card round game at Denver.
Doug Legursky will move over from left guard, weakening two positions with mistake-prone Chris Kemoeatu likely to enter the starting lineup. The Steelers had hoped to have their offensive line intact, as they've averaged six more points per game with all hands on deck this season.-Rotoworld.com

Denver just ,might win this game.. It may end being Brady Quinn as the hero

[John Ryan]

ESPN's Ed Werder reports Brady Quinn took eight first-team reps in Broncos practice this week, and that it was more than usual.

Brady Quinn has been getting "roughly half the first-team reps in practice this week," a source tells ProFootballTalk.com.
Over the final three regular season games, Tim Tebow tossed four interceptions against one touchdown and lost three fumbles. The Broncos went 0-3. It appears the Broncos are now preparing a backup plan in case Tebow faceplants against the Steelers on Sunday. We already know that the organization hasn't been in Tebow's corner since jump street._- Rotoworld.com

There were many other conflicting reports...

I have NO DOUBT that Quinn will be in the game if Tebow struggles to make reads and solid throws. He should have been 16-for-22 in that last game based on watching the recording over again.

[John Ryan]

NFL Network's Jeff Darlington reports that Broncos SS Brian Dawkins' neck injury is "career threatening."
"I continue to hear from my sources that this injury is career threatening and there is very little expectation that he will be able to return if the Broncos do indeed advance," Darlington reported on Around the League Friday. Dawkins may be headed for injured reserve shortly. David Bruton and rookie Quinton Carter will be the Broncos' safeties throughout the playoffs. -Rotoworld.com

Great news adn great work. Thanks for your contributions

[Reload]

Brady Quinn is still in the NFL? Doesn't Best Buy need some more big screen TV salesmen before the Super Bowl?

[81_84]

Just my opinion here , but I think both Grimes and Pouncey are going key factors in both games. Grimes is a very underrated cb and will called on to stop Cruz. Cruz has been a beast this year and at least this year he's been a top 5 wr. A healthy Grimes has the ability to do so. I'm going to try and see if I can dig up any first hand accounts of how he looked.
In regards to Pouncey , along with Clark and R.M. , the steelers are really banged up. To the point where if this was a rev. season game Big Ben wouldn't be playing. With him hobbled , a shaky o-line to begin with and without their starting rb , I think the steelers are in for a tough game. Denver has absolutely nothing to lose here. Plus the total really has me thinking that pitt will be running as much as possible. They will have to keep the pressure off of Ben by doing so. Right now I'm seeing 33-33 1/2 and we know its that low for a reason. I see this as a 17-9 / 21-13 type game. Maybe closer.
I've been checking in throughout the season and appreciate you're insight and knowledge. BOL With you're picks.

[edmskid]

Yeah, it's tough to look at both Denver and Detroit too (maybe less so for detroit bc of the SuperDome), so I'm going to pull a Slade, and run, run away from those two games, maybe look for something at the half. That said, I am going to put a little 2* sprinkle on the Broncos ML - +310. That's really just something to agitate my host on Sunday (Steelers fan). Part of me wants to see Pitt leading 10-6 going into the 4th....

It's also really, really hard to go against the Giants, so would be looking away from sides, and see how the totals shake out, and of course John, what the Sim-Swami has to say :-) 47.5 seems awfully low for two such (sporadically perhaps) potent attacks. I'd have to say it's quite an unpredictable (gut-wise) slew of games this weekend. Hard to go with the Texans based on looking at good Cinci is *capable* of being - and also that they, too have nothing to lose. Clearly, they're going to do their level best to make Houston throw the ball. Like Denver, Cinci's season can be considered pretty successful, win or lose on the weekend. That should scare the Texans. All the same, again another game with no clear gut-sides. Looks like I'll stay light this weekend, and watch out for a few 2nd half TTs or something like that. Interested to hear what the sim says, as always thanks for your efforts John, and also thanks to the Jedi for the injury updates.

[John Ryan]

10* graded play ‘under’ the posted total in the Lions/Saints game. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 58 points will be scored in this game. The Lions have struggled to run the ball, BUT Lions running back Kevin Smith has put together some solid games over the second half of the season. The Saints already have a solid rushing attack, in large part, because the defenses have to defend pass first and always. In a twist of sorts, both offensive coordinators will look to gain an advantage in time-of-possession and keep thje other juggernaut offense off the field. This too, in my opinion, plays into the strength of the Lions as shortening the game will only keep the Lions in the game and then anything can happen in the fourth quarter. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 65-31 for 68% winners since 1983. Play ‘under’ with home teams against the total that is an excellent passing team gaining >=7.3 passing yards per attempt and now facing an average passing defense allowing 5.9 to 6.7 passing yards per attempt and after eight or more regular seasons games have been played and after gaining seven or more passing yards per attempt in two straight games. Payton is 14-4 ‘UNDER’ after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games as the coach of the Saints. Take the ‘UNDER’

[John Ryan]

Ok.. I am going out on a limb to most observers and I will recommend a 3* amount on Detroit using the MONEY LINE. You may remeber a similar play when I nailed Arizona as a 13 1/2 point dog and the 3* MONEY LINE winner when they defeated a hapless Eagles team in Philadelphia earlier this year. I truly believe Calvin Johnson will be the Saints nightmare. Lions must minimize penalties of course, but this is far more mature and cohesive than say in week 8 and prior. I know it is a long shot, but how often do you get these odds with a proven 5000 yards quarterback and a team with 14 fewer turnovers than the opposition?

And I will be back at half time of the first game.

[No coincidences]

If you like the under so much and think the Lions will not only cover but win SU, I'm assuming you'll absolutely pound the Saints TT under right?