2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

**John Ryan** · 10-05-11, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by LUNT101

Ok?

The Jets are hard to figure out period this year. I will see what my database and sim come up with. Every year there is a team or a few teams that can make you look like a genius or a complete fool on any given week. The Jets seem to fit that mold this year.

**John Ryan** · 10-05-11, 08:32 PM

Originally posted by suitor

check VegasInsider! They have public betting trends on Hilton in Vegas and on sportsbook.com for the ML, O/U, and ATS

That is a good resource certainly, but be careful because those percentages are there, but we do not know how many bets to how much dollar volume is on those bets. You need to know those two extra factors to have a more meaningful consensus data. Hope that helps Perhaps I can provide my overall Consensus data later in the week say Saturday afternoon and we will see how it compares.

**John Ryan** · 10-05-11, 08:36 PM

Originally posted by K2daL

Which team are on your radar & will shit the bed this week? Also, Can you elaborate further reasoning why you think Buffalo has more value vs. the Eagles?

Buffalo defeated New England, one of the best teams in the NFL and Buffalo gets no respect from the public. They have been the doormats of the AFC East for years and it takes a while for the public to adjust their interests and sentiment in a losing team like Buffalo. Philly, however, is even more loved by the public because they are 1-3 and just HAVE to win. Well, no team HAS to win or is DUE to win. It may pear to be the case in hindsight, but the Eagles are in deep trouble right now. They are capable of turning it around, but there are so many problems to resolve.

**PickMeAwinner** · 10-05-11, 10:17 PM

I would love to look at it John. I was just speaking my mind to see if I can make some sense out of it. You on the other hand have a more in depth look at the situation and I am one to try and learn. I am a student of the game trying to master the art!

Thanx John you really made me look at things in a different way, positively of course!

**PickMeAwinner** · 10-06-11, 10:30 AM

Kc 38
@ Indy -2.5

Man I dont even know where to start with these two. KC 1-3 vs Indy 0-4. The only impressive thing about these guys are that they are both tied with 2-2 ATS 50% winners. First of all where is the offense at? Currently KC in 30th in total pts average per game, 30th in total passing and they are about average with rushing yard at 14th place. I didn't want to be specific about the #'s cause it not worth it for me to post. Indy is pretty much on the same level, 28th in pts per game, 26th in passing, and 28th in rushing. These two are tied at 30th place averaging 270 total yards per game LOL. Get where Im going with this? Defensively they about even as far as total yards go, giving up about 380 yrds average per game. The thing that scares me most is they gave up pts to their opponents. Kc allowed 31.5 pts and Indy 27 pts average per game. With no offense and a very shaky defense I dont know whether this game is going to be OVER or UNDER. What do I do in these type of situations?

John please give me your thoughts, Thanx

**nmodi** · 10-06-11, 01:34 PM

John,

Out of Footbal topic...

Ur thought for Yankees game today????

Thanks in advance

**JR007** · 10-06-11, 01:56 PM

[quote=John Ryan;11693697]This reinforces the fundamental theme that a lines maker job is to set a number where he knows he will get nearly equal action on each side. They could care less, who wins the game. There are of course times where they do get over loaded on my side, but will keep the line static as to not get 'middled'.

SOMEWHAT DEBATABLE, THERE ARE TIMES WHERE A MANAGER WILL TAKE A RISK ON ONE SIDE, WHEN KEY NUMBERS ARE NOT INVOLVED.....LINE MIGHT OPEN AT 7.5..(FAV)....THEY MIGHT DRIVE IT UP TO 8, 8.5, 9.,9.5, JUST BELOW THE KEY NUMBER OF 10 , AS THEY KNOW SHARPS WILL COME IN THEN, ......IF THEY THINK THAT SIDE WILL WIN, REFERENCE (WONGS bOOK ) SHARP BETTING

**1gamer** · 10-06-11, 05:23 PM

How does teasing Cal up to +31 and und 72.5 sound?

Keeping with the JR picks.

**Jay2k1civic** · 10-06-11, 09:43 PM

2h play oregon?....

**jjaycuny** · 10-06-11, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by Jay2k1civic

2h play oregon?....

took Cal +13.5 -105

**John Ryan** · 10-07-11, 06:49 AM

Originally posted by PickMeAwinner

I would love to look at it John. I was just speaking my mind to see if I can make some sense out of it. You on the other hand have a more in depth look at the situation and I am one to try and learn. I am a student of the game trying to master the art!

Thanx John you really made me look at things in a different way, positively of course!

Thanks, but keep in ind this thread is based on a 2-way street of communication. That is why I believe we are all becoming better handicappers and game analyzers.

**John Ryan** · 10-07-11, 06:51 AM

Originally posted by Jay2k1civic

2h play oregon?....

I missed this last night as i was 'hangin' out in the CFB thread focused on that game. Each week I have one single game that we completely tear apart over the course of the week. i will post the link to the new thread once the new game is identified for next week.

In hindsight, I was thinking of second half play on Oregon figuring the coaches would rip into them, but having Cal +24, UNDER Cal, and a teaser Cal and Under i felt that by adding second half Oregon was just adding too many plays and too much risk.

**John Ryan** · 10-07-11, 07:22 AM

Just as a note and a reminder to everyone. I have a CFB thread started so that we can keep the CFB and NFL discussions and analysis separate. Also, I will be releasing the NFL 5* Plays this afternoon.

**John Ryan** · 10-07-11, 02:52 PM

Ok. Friday afternoon. I will be Game 5 tonight in Philadelphia. Will send Game updates and hopefully a little video of the stadium, the fans, the atmosphere, the food, the whole thing will be incredible. I do have a 5* play on Arizona today Just FYI.

I am 13-6 ATS for 68.4% ATS winners. Here are this weeks 5* plays so far.

5* Kansas City (yes again) +2 over the Colts
5* Houston -5 1/2 over Oakland
5* New England -8 1/2 over the Jets

There may be more as I move through Sunday night and the totals data and simulations.

**John Ryan** · 10-07-11, 02:55 PM

Here is the thread for the baseball game.

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/1312067-john-ryan-live-game-five-phillies-cardinals.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

I will do my best to send live updates with some video. Should be fun.

**DrStale** · 10-07-11, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by John Ryan

Ok. Friday afternoon. I will be Game 5 tonight in Philadelphia. Will send Game updates and hopefully a little video of the stadium, the fans, the atmosphere, the food, the whole thing will be incredible. I do have a 5* play on Arizona today Just FYI.

I am 13-6 ATS for 68.4% ATS winners. Here are this weeks 5* plays so far.

5* Kansas City (yes again) +2 over the Colts
5* Houston -5 1/2 over Oakland
5* New England -8 1/2 over the Jets

There may be more as I move through Sunday night and the totals data and simulations.

Like 'em. Chiefs is my strongest play of the weekend. BOL.

**PickMeAwinner** · 10-07-11, 03:10 PM

John,

Any input on the put about KC at Indy about the over/under situation?

**Greyraptor** · 10-07-11, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by John Ryan

Ok. Friday afternoon. I will be Game 5 tonight in Philadelphia. Will send Game updates and hopefully a little video of the stadium, the fans, the atmosphere, the food, the whole thing will be incredible. I do have a 5* play on Arizona today Just FYI.

I am 13-6 ATS for 68.4% ATS winners. Here are this weeks 5* plays so far.

5* Kansas City (yes again) +2 over the Colts
5* Houston -5 1/2 over Oakland
5* New England -8 1/2 over the Jets

There may be more as I move through Sunday night and the totals data and simulations.

Good picks John! Have fun at the game and I hope it is a good one!

**Jay2k1civic** · 10-07-11, 06:00 PM

Anybody making a play on boise state game tonight?... anyone like the favored team?

**bruloc** · 10-07-11, 07:20 PM

Iam thinking about do a teaser boise + over.

**jjaycuny** · 10-07-11, 07:30 PM

I have Fresno State covering +21 -110

**Jay2k1civic** · 10-07-11, 07:39 PM

jjay.....what do u think they will cover?.... WR comes back for Boise....i just dont see how they dont cover.....

**Jay2k1civic** · 10-07-11, 07:40 PM

9-1 since 1992 4-1 at fresno since 92 ats!!!!!!!!!!! over the last 3 seasons 2-0 ats .....

**Jay2k1civic** · 10-07-11, 10:10 PM

uhm....if the yankees wernt going anywhere...PHILLIES werent going anywhere! back to back seasons!

**fecgp40** · 10-07-11, 10:25 PM

Originally posted by jjaycuny

I have Fresno State covering +21 -110

Better luck next time JJ. Never bet against Boise in a prime time nationally televised game.

**fecgp40** · 10-07-11, 10:26 PM

Originally posted by Jay2k1civic

uhm....if the yankees wernt going anywhere...PHILLIES werent going anywhere! back to back seasons!

Yankees and Phillies =

**jjaycuny** · 10-07-11, 11:17 PM

Originally posted by fecgp40

Better luck next time JJ. Never bet against Boise in a prime time nationally televised game.

**Jay2k1civic** · 10-07-11, 11:22 PM

Originally posted by jjaycuny

hate to say "i told ya so"

**PickMeAwinner** · 10-08-11, 12:30 AM

Picked Boise St + OVER 58. Got me shaking cause is was gonna be UNDER and a Pick by Boise St gave me a chance and I was like, damn there is no more time. Wow nice easy run for a Td to make my day as time ran out!
Sweet

**PickMeAwinner** · 10-08-11, 12:33 AM

Originally posted by John Ryan

Ok. Friday afternoon. I will be Game 5 tonight in Philadelphia. Will send Game updates and hopefully a little video of the stadium, the fans, the atmosphere, the food, the whole thing will be incredible. I do have a 5* play on Arizona today Just FYI.

I am 13-6 ATS for 68.4% ATS winners. Here are this weeks 5* plays so far.

5* Kansas City (yes again) +2 over the Colts
5* Houston -5 1/2 over Oakland
5* New England -8 1/2 over the Jets

There may be more as I move through Sunday night and the totals data and simulations.

I like KC and New England Im still not sure about Houston. Yes I am a fan of the Raiders but I more a fan of beating the spread. I bet against them all the time when I feel its the right play. Still waiting to look at those number when you get a chance.

GL ya'll

**PickMeAwinner** · 10-08-11, 12:38 AM

Last year Boise State beat Fresno State 52 - 0 or something like that and back then Boise state was ranked #10. Now Boise State is #5 and I can see the big improvements or maybe its just because Fresno State got worst.....doubt it though.

**fsulover100** · 10-08-11, 06:20 AM

Originally posted by PickMeAwinner

Last year Boise State beat Fresno State 52 - 0 or something like that and back then Boise state was ranked #10. Now Boise State is #5 and I can see the big improvements or maybe its just because Fresno State got worst.....doubt it though.

No offense but is this a joke? They lost 2 top 20 receivers in Titus Young and Austin Pettis. Fresno State has gotten worse.

**PickMeAwinner** · 10-08-11, 10:02 AM

I got a 5 teamer on College tomorrow

Utah + 3
Miami FL +8.5
Baylor -16
LSU -12
Michigan -10

Im feeling lucky about this one, this is a fun pick thanks to Boise St.

**Reno Gambler** · 10-08-11, 10:20 AM

John,

How much of a diffrence up or down on the line where it's not considered a play on the plays you put out??
Thanks and keep up the great work!!

**Mully85** · 10-08-11, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by PickMeAwinner

I got a 5 teamer on College tomorrow Utah + 3 Miami FL +8.5 Baylor -16 LSU -12 Michigan -10 Im feeling lucky about this one, this is a fun pick thanks to Boise St.

Why so lucky on this one PickMeAwinner? Looks enticing!