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maxlock i am sold on the steeler spread..u converted me from jets pickComment -
I feel pretty confident with the Steelers pick, but would be more confident if it was -3. Hopefully the .5 hook won't bite us. That being said I'm expecting a 7+ point Steelers victory. (See previous analysis)
**BTW I still have not come up with a pick on the Bears/Packers game. At first I was pretty sold on the Packers at -3, now that the spread is -3.5, I am pretty torn. The more thinking and researching I do on this game the more I see it coming down to a last possession FG. CHI at +3.5 MAY be the play for me. I'll come up with a conclusion in the next few days.
Things to consider with CHI/GB:
-I looked back at the last 4 AFC/NFC championship games. I could only find data going back the last 4 years and here's what I found:
-Vegas has never lost both of the public bets in the Championship round. As of right now about 80% is on GB -3/3.5 & 60% on Pitt -3/3.5
-Since I am already convinced on Pitt being able to cover, that is part of the reason I am torn with the GB/Chi game.
Here are the last six Chi/GB games:
2010: Week 3 @ Chicago: GB 17 Chi 20
Week 17 @ GB: GB 10-Chi 3
2009: Week 1 @ GB: GB defeats Chi 21-15...Bears were up 15-13, with 1:11 left Rodgers connects with Jennings on a 50 yard TD pass plus the 2 pt conversion. Results in a 21-15 GB win
Week 14 @ Chi: GB defeats Chi 21-14...Bears were actually up 14-13 going into the 4th quarter.
2008: Week 11 @ GB: GB defeats Chi 37-3
Week 16 @ CHI: CHI defeats GB 20-17
* Chicago is 2-1 straight up in the last three home games vs GB.
*Aside from the week 11 2008 GB victory all of these games have come down to the ENDING, 5 out of the 6 games have been decided by 7 points or less, 2 being 3 pt victories favoring Chicago.
The more I look at this the game the more I am convinced this game will result in a 3 point victory for GB. CHI +3.5 MAY BE the play. Give me a couple days before I make anything official.Last edited by Maxlock; 01-18-11, 10:31 PM.Comment -
Seems like the GB game should be a pass for you Max. You clearly think GB is the better team but don't like the hook. Either buy it down or pass the game. Thinking it's going to be a 3 point game and taking a team you don't think will win just because of the hook seems risky to me. Just my .02 Max.
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I haven't been this confused about a game in a while. Under normal circumstances this would be a no play for me, but because this round only has 2 games to choose from I feel as though I need to make a play. Looking back on some of my past plays throughout the year and my capping career, the plays that I wasn't very confident on, ironically, won for me at a high %. So I'll see what I decide with this game as the week goes on.Seems like the GB game should be a pass for you Max. You clearly think GB is the better team but don't like the hook. Either buy it down or pass the game. Thinking it's going to be a 3 point game and taking a team you don't think will win just because of the hook seems risky to me. Just my .02 Max.
P.S. This game sure isn't giving me any sleep
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Throw the trends out the f*cking window Max and go with your intial lean and your gut play. Don't over analyze this game, just based on logic and reason alone there's only one side worth playing here. I'll go over this in detail on my show Wednesday night!I haven't been this confused about a game in a while. Under normal circumstances this would be a no play for me, but because this round only has 2 games to choose from I feel as though I need to make a play. Looking back on some of my past plays throughout the year and my capping career, the plays that I wasn't very confident on, ironically, won for me at a high %. So I'll see what I decide with this game as the week goes on.
P.S. This game sure isn't giving me any sleep
Either way it looks like were both on different sides here...Comment -
cant wait to read the write up on gb game! thanks for the pitts play i agree with you.
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Aside from the trends..These games are tight as hell every time Chicago faces GB. Chicago at home is in no way going to roll over. I actually think GB might be a little full of themselves after beating PHily and Atl. Needless to say, those were two games were I was very confident taking GB. Take the last 6 games GB has faced Chicago, aside from the one 37-3 beating in 2008, which was clearly an anomaly here's where each team stands. In those 5 games GB has averaged 17.2 points per game vs. Chicago, while the Bears averaged 14.4 points. The Bears are one of the few teams that can slow down Aaron Rodgers. They are excellent in not allowing third down conversions, big pass plays, and are are just as good in not giving up TDs.
Another thing if the GB opts not to punt to Devin Hester then this will routinely set up Chicago's offense in good field position. Since GB will be angling their punts out of bounds they will be continually losing 10-15 yards. Kick offs? Mason Crosby isn't very good when it comes to touchbacks so the opportunities will surely be there too.
Riggs, I'll try tuning in Wednesday night and see what you have to say, might be call in. I already read your analysis and they're pretty sound and in depth, unfortunately we don't see the outcomes being entirely the same.
I keep looking at the 3.5 and can't help but imagine GB backers getting screwed by .5Comment -
The bears are the play. The pack beat a bad ATL team that had a weak sched. All year long. The pack beat a good PHIL. Team that quit the last 2wks. I will take hester and erlacher. Give me the points at home. Sucker game. Steelers beat the best D . The pats didnt play D all seasonComment -
concerned, not worried
I'm taking your worries with a level (humble) head because this is a divisional matchup (much like Pats - Jets) and I do agree it throws a psychological wrench into a normal handicapping scenario. I am also concerned with the extra .5, but not because of Vegas reasons and history --- because this is "supposed" to be close / rivalry.
Any way you look at it, if Chicago or NY Jets win, i don't see it being by anything else than last second.Comment -
Both games have the half point to -3 at 25 points... I don't know if that makes sense, I'm just trying to talk in capper speak.
From -110 to -135. If this half point is really the biggest concern, why not just buy it down? I see both games either hitting at 21-24 or 21-28 and it'd be nice to have that Push safety net.Comment -
Do you guys think the Steelers line at 3.5 might go down to 3 as it gets closer to game time? (Like an hour before kick off) I feel like the average "bet every once in a while during playoffs and super bowl" bettors will be more attracted to the Jets hype. Do you think this will affect the line?Comment -
Pitt now at -4. Interesting to see a higher % on GB yet that line is still at -3.5.Comment -
This is a good write up on the Packers game:
Packers' Next Opponent: Bears
BOB MCGINN - JOURNAL SENTINEL
Lovie Smith and his Chicago Bears are in the NFC Championship Game after beating Seattle in the divisional round.
TUE, 18 JAN 2011 22:52:00 -0600
Green Bay — Two executives in personnel for National Football League teams agreed on one thing.
The NFC Championship Game on Sunday at Soldier Field between the Green Bay Packers (12-6) and Chicago Bears (12-5) will be decided by three points.
One personnel man for an NFC team picked the Packers, 17-14.
"I think the Packers will win but it's not going to be easy in that environment," the scout said. "I think it will be low-scoring based on the defenses. It will be tight."
The other personnel man, who also works for an NFC club, kept calling the game a tossup. When pressed, he picked the Bears, 20-17.
"On Wall Street they say the trend is your friend," the scout said. "The Bears have just been absolutely lucky this year. They got the Seattle Seahawks at home after a bye and now they get home-field advantage because the Packers beat the Falcons. And they're injury-free.
"I like the Packers. The Packers are a better team. They've got a lot of playmakers on both sides of the ball.
"But Lovie Smith, they didn't have anything to play for up in Green Bay and it was 10-3. The first game he only gave up 17 points.
"I think it can go either way. I just think Lovie Smith's scheme has got his (Mike McCarthy's) number this year.
"I wouldn't bet against the trend. I don't know how they're going to win, but I just think the Bears will win the game."
Here is what the two scouts had to say Tuesday about the Bears' personnel and schemes:
OFFENSE
SCHEME
"Since the bye week they've understood what their issues are and have done a great job (covering) their weaknesses. Which is pass protection. They were seven-step dropping, trying to get everybody out and they had a tremendous amount of sacks. They had to cut down their drops. Under (coordinator) Mike Martz, now they're a three- and five-step drop team with a lot of bootleg and dash action. The offense turned conservative, playing not to lose the game. Martz still will take shots down the field but will utilize seven-man protection. He loves to spread the field to work his quick passing game. To slow down the rush the Bears use the screen game.
"The Bears' rushing attack tends to favor an outside or off-tackle finesse game from either one- or two-back looks. They prefer the outside zone and counter misdirection from one back and toss out of two-back. The inside run game consists of inside trap and zone schemes from one-back and lead draws from two-backs. Martz loves the art of deception by utilizing multiple shifts and motions to disguise his attack."
KEY PLAYERS
WR Johnny Knox: "Speed threat. Right now he's more of a down the field, outside the numbers guy. He will run some dig routes at about 12 to 15 yards. Most of the time he's operating outside the numbers. They do have some changeups where they can get him on a shallow cross. He has some easy drops. I'd take him over (Devin) Hester. He's a little more polished as a route runner."
LT Frank Omiyale: "He's probably their best run blocker. Still developing as a pass protector but he's better than the right tackle (J'Marcus Webb). He's a physical guy. Long arms. Does have good feet. He's still raw but he's got very good traits."
LG Chris Williams: "I think he's soft. He's never played guard until this year. He's a work in progress. Good athlete. Can pull. Gets to the second level. But he plays high and can get caught on his heels. I've seen him get (walked) back to the quarterback."
C Olin Kreutz: "Kreutz is just Kreutz. He's smart. He makes all the line calls. He gets them in and out of protections. He has pull ability. He can run. But he's a little guy. He doesn't play with a lot of strength. If you can get him isolated you can beat him."
RG Roberto Garza: "He's the better of the three right now inside. He's playing with more strength and power. He's probably playing his best football, believe it or not. Right guard is his natural position. He's probably the most consistent player they've got on the line."
RT J'Marcus Webb: "I actually think he's getting better. He's bending. But he's got issues. He oversets and gets beat inside. He's like a turnstile. He doesn't play with great hand placement. He's a rookie. Long arms. Big body. "
TE Greg Olsen: "He's a big wideout. He creates mismatches on certain players. Seattle went zero man coverage and they had old man Lawyer Milloy covering him down the seam. How stupid is that? Very average blocker. Great hands."
WR Devin Hester: "Vertical threat receiver. Both he and Knox are damn good at what they do. Got great speed. But he is a little guy and can be rerouted and pushed off his track. Not the most sure-handed guy. "
QB Jay Cutler: "He's hot right now. He wasn't hot in Green Bay. For the most part he's playing within himself. He's scrambling more and more. It's a problem being able to contain him. He's got a little more patience, especially around the red area. He significantly cut down his turnovers."
FB Brandon Manumaleuna: "He's just really a big fat body. Almost like an offensive lineman. He has caught some check-downs just to offset their tendencies. He's not a big threat."
RB Matt Forte: "He will be the key guy running and catching. Good balance. He's 220, 225 pounds and can pull away from people. He wasn't doing that last year. He can run quick and shallow crosses from the slot against linebackers, or they will run him on a flat-and-up out of the backfield."
No. 3 WR Earl Bennett: "He's their hot receiver and possession receiver. The two guys that work the middle of the field are Bennett and Olsen. If you blitz them, those are the guys you've got to cover on hot routes. He's not a slowpoke but he is their slowest receiver. But he's got excellent hands. He's smart. He's their clutch receiver on third down."
No. 2 TE Kellen Davis: "He's a better receiving threat than Manumaleuna. You're starting to see more and more of him down the stretch. He has developed into a decent blocker. He's a big target down the middle of the field."
No. 2 RB Chester Taylor: "He's become one-dimensional. Earlier in the season, they were throwing him the ball. Now when he's in the game they've become more run. People have picked up on that. He can search (for blitzers). He's got good hands."
DEFENSE
SCHEME
"What they did against Green Bay was change up in the last game. They know they were hurt because of the spread attack so they played a lot more press man coverage to close the windows. It kind of threw Aaron Rodgers off a little bit. New England spread the Bears and played pitch and catch. The Bears read the quarterback's eyes. So when the quarterback is moving his body, that frees up receivers in the quick-passing game.
"The Bears kind of showed their hand a little bit in the last game playing a little more man coverage. That seemed to work. The Packers only scored 10 points. They tried to rush four and force Rodgers to hold the ball. Look for Green Bay to run some pick routes and crossing routes. I don't think they were prepared for that. Now the Bears had nothing to lose when they did that. This week it will probably be a combination. You might see press the whole game. They may go back and forth. Press and play zone, press and play man."
KEY PLAYERS
LE Israel Idonije: "Everybody is trying to block Julius Peppers and then you've got this big mountain of a man just bull rushing the right tackle or the left tackle, depending where they put Peppers. He's a kind of a stiff in the hips type guy. It's all power. He's not going to beat you on the corner. But he's got long arms, he's tall, he can knock balls down. The two ends give you height, so there's a lot of tipped balls and it's hard to find those passing lanes."
NT Anthony Adams: "He's not the most stout guy. He is undersized but he gives you that great effort. He plays with passion and he can make some plays. He's got range. He's not a dominant-type nose tackle."
DT Tommie Harris: "He's playing better but he's terrible against the run. I don't think he cares about playing the run. He will make a sack. He gets blocked at the line, falls down and then Peppers will (flush) the quarterback and he'll make a play."
RE Julius Peppers: "He's got power and speed. He's just a freak of an athlete. He's got height but he can make himself small. I don't know who put it out that you can run at the guy. Go ahead and try. Both those ends do a great job setting the edge. I see both ends knocking tackles back in the run game. His effort level is excellent. Does he take plays off? He's also passing linebackers to track guys down on sideline runs away. He plays a lot and gets tired."
SLB Pisa Tinoisamoa: "He fills the best of their linebackers. He's the most aggressive downhill player of the three. He's a pit bull. He forces where the other two catch. He's just coming back now off knee surgery."
MLB Brian Urlacher: "He's a big guy. When he plays in 'Tampa 2' it's a problem for the quarterback to throw over the top of him. He's never been a take-on guy. He doesn't fight through you. He's not the most physical guy. His biggest thing is chasing guys down and making plays outside. Misdirection is great because it slows him down."
WLB Lance Briggs: "Solid player. He's probably overrated in a lot of ways. He runs around blocks. He's a little sloppy in his techniques, his zone drops. Not the most physical guy. He has natural instincts. He does make some plays for that spot but he should be making a lot more plays than he does."
LC Tim Jennings: "He's a midget. I don't like small guys playing corner. But he's making plays on the ball. He's doing what they tell him to do. Play outside technique, deep as the deepest. I do think you can double-move him. If you have time, you want to work down the field on him. He's one of those little guys who plays better in the front zones than deep. Against big receivers they've got to worry about the high jump balls and they can't get up there."
RC Charles Tillman: "When he plays off he's got no transition left. You can double-move him when he's playing off. Best thing he does, he can rub against a big body guy. Great stripper of the ball. But he doesn't have great feet in transition when he's working deep to short. You do like his height and long arms. Good tackler."
SS Danieal Manning: "He's their best open-field tackler. Not the most instinctive guy. Will watch the quarterback a little bit. You can really move their safeties with look-offs, especially in the two-deep stuff."
FS Chris Harris: "He's one of the luckiest guys alive. He has a knack for recovering fumbles and getting overthrows. He's just lucky. He struggles to make open-field tackles. He's more of a hitter than he is a space tackler."
No. 3 DT Matt Toeaina: "Try-hard player. Short arms. Is conscious of his gap responsibility in the run game. He's just a rotating player."
No. 4 DT Henry Melton: "He was a running back in college. He's a heck of an athlete. Little raw. More of a pass-rush specialist now than a run player. They do a lot of twisting and that's what he does best. When Peppers comes inside he can loop around. He's a good enough athlete to run the quarterbacks down when they break contain."
No. 3 DE Corey Wootton: "He's a short-stepper. Doesn't really have a great take-off. Effort player. Will fly around. But he's stiff and can play high. He's more of a bull rusher."
No. 3 CB D.J. Moore: "He's having a heck of a year. He's got quick feet and great change of direction. He can work in a short area. Got a knack for knocking balls away and interceptions. Has good blitz capability off the slot. Good open-field tackler. But he's not a very big guy. You can get some push-off stuff when you run routes right at him."
No. 3 S Major Wright: "He's just average."
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Robbie Gould: "He's 'Mr. Clutch' in Soldier Field. You don't want it to come down to him."
P Brad Maynard: "He punted the ball pretty good against Seattle. I was surprised. The old man is a gamer. He probably sees this as his last opportunity to go to the Super Bowl. The bye week helped him. They got him rested."
KR: Danieal Manning/Devin Hester: "When Manning's back there you're going to get more of a straight return. When Hester's there you'll get more of a potential bounce return. Go one way and redirect another."Comment -
It's Bears and Steelers for me this week Maxlock. I've been following you for the past 6 weeks or so... Good luck whatever you decide.Comment -
Packers -3 -135
Pitt-3 -135
At Betcris as off right knowComment -
Same payout as if you'd bought half a point, so the line hasn't really "moved," they're just showing you the -3 bet. Sounds like they want some takers.Last edited by Pap45murF; 01-19-11, 09:27 PM.Comment -
Who is even thinking of betting the OVER in that game? Another great example of if you think it can go over, just don't touch it ... under clearly the play if anything.
I'm talking GB at CHIComment -
MAXLOCK NFL HANDICAPPING:
(all documented in thread)
Regular Season Weeks 10-17: 33-21-2 ATS
Wild Card Round: 3-0 ATS
-GB +2.5 over Phily=W
-Baltimore -3 over KC=W
-NY Jets +3 over Indy=W
Divisional Round 3-0 ATS
-GB +2.5 over Atl=W
-NY Jets +8.5 over New England=W
-Chicago -10 over Seattle=W
TOTAL: 39-21-2 ATS 65%
***********************************odds off sportsbook.com as of 5:00 pm eastern Thursday
AFC: NY JETS @Pittsburgh
PICK STEELERS -3.5 (-110)
NFC: GB Packers @ Chicago
PICK BEARS +3.5 (-110)
*How many units you wish to place on these games is up to you, BUT these are equal type games for me.
BOL....LETS ROLL
Last edited by Maxlock; 01-20-11, 05:27 PM.Comment -
This is not an attempt at figuring out the over /under, just an educated guess on the final scores...
Predictions:
Pittsburgh 23 NY Jets 10
PICK PITT -3.5
Green Bay 23 Chicago 20
PICK Chicago +3.5Comment -
i decided to go with Pitt and the Bears as well. Not gonna do the teaser i was thinking about. BOL this week everybody.Comment
