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Comment -
Wondering if anyone knows where SBR get their consensus figures from, because they are at times completely different from the consensus on freesportsbet, for example the Hofstra game tonight, fsb has George mason 77% Hofstra 23% with the line moving from -11 to -9 makes Hofstra definitely a play, but SBR consensus has George Mason 45% Hofstra 55% making it definitely not a play under this system, this makes a big difference so which figures do we believe, let me know if i'm missing something..but love the system you guys got going here..Comment -
UPDATE 7:49PM
Games to Watch 2/08/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from
http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing
them to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF
YOU WANT)
NCAAB
6:00pm 523 George Washington Colonials OPEN +15 NOW +13
7:00pm 529 Hofstra Pride OPEN +11 NOW +9
7:00pm 533 NC Wilmington Seahawks OPEN +6.5 NOW +6
7:00pm 539 Marshall Thundering Herd OPEN +4.5 NOW +3.5 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)
7:00pm 542 Central Michigan Chippewas OPEN +6 NOW +5 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)
7:00pm 557 Rhode Island Rams OPEN +15.5 NOW +14.5 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)
8:00pm 578 Northern Illinois Huskies OPEN +9 NOW +8.5 (NOT REACHED 3K BETS)
8:00pm 589 South Carolina Gamecocks OPEN +7.5 NOW +7
O/U:
7:00pm 561 Georgetown Hoyas/562 Syracuse Orange OPEN 130.5 NOW 129 - PLAY UNDER 129 (PLAY IF YOU LIKE)
NBA
7:05pm 506 Toronto Raptors OPEN +2 NOW +1.5
7:35pm 513 Detroit Pistons OPEN +4.5 NOW +3
O/U:
7:35pm 513 Detroit Pistons/514 New Jersey Nets OPEN 184.5 NOW 187.5 - PLAY OVER 187.5 (PLAY IF YOU LIKE)
RECORD 2/7/12: 2-2
RECORD 2/6/12: 1-1
YTD: 73-52-1 59%Comment -
From perusing the site, it seems that the consensus data is culled from the people betting essentially play money at freesportsbet. I'm just not convinced that the betting trends their reveal sharp vs. square, more likely just the consensus of a bunch of squares. There certainly isn't anything wrong with betting the other side of a bunch of squares though...Comment -
UPDATE
Games to Watch 2/08/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from
http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing
them to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF
YOU WANT)
NCAAB
6:00pm 523 George Washington Colonials OPEN +15 NOW +13 W
7:00pm 529 Hofstra Pride OPEN +11 NOW +9 L
7:00pm 533 NC Wilmington Seahawks OPEN +6.5 NOW +6 L
7:00pm 557 Rhode Island Rams OPEN +15.5 NOW +14.5 L
8:00pm 589 South Carolina Gamecocks OPEN +7.5 NOW +7
O/U:
7:00pm 561 Georgetown Hoyas/562 Syracuse Orange OPEN 130.5 NOW 129 - PLAY UNDER 129 (PLAY IF YOU LIKE) W
NBA
7:05pm 506 Toronto Raptors OPEN +2 NOW +1.5
7:35pm 513 Detroit Pistons OPEN +4.5 NOW +3
O/U:
7:35pm 513 Detroit Pistons/514 New Jersey Nets OPEN 184.5 NOW 187.5 - PLAY OVER 187.5 (PLAY IF YOU LIKE)
RECORD 2/8/12: 2-5
RECORD 2/7/12: 2-2
RECORD 2/6/12: 1-1
YTD: 75-57-1 57%Last edited by wiseguy007; 02-08-12, 10:03 PM.Comment -
Tough night. Good luck tomorrow.Comment -
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Well here were my plays from last night, first night in a while I wasn't 50%... think I just stepped out too far and took to many games for my liking. Although this morning when I looked if I would have played EVERY NCAA game (except more heard state can't find any info on them)last night I would have been 20-16 so not throwing out the system quite yet.
Timberwolves(Minnesota) +8 x1 WIN
Nets(NewJersey) -3.5 x1 LOSS
Heat(Miami) -4 x1 LOSS
MissouriSt -3.5 x1 LOSS
HoustonU +2 x1 LOSS
Arkansas +1.5 x1 LOSS
Virginia -14 x1 WIN
FloridaSt -12.5 x1 LOSS
Akron -2.5 x1 WON
Buffalo -5 x1 LOSS
MichiganSt -14.5 x1 WIN
...ewww
(8-9-2) ...ewww
I am going to start keeping track of my record against the original RLM strategy I was using before... which was working great, I really don't know why I strayed from it in the first place. I haven't checked the RLM plays for the last few days but I am going to back and update my spreadsheet now... I'll post when done.
Hope EVERYONE had a better night than me, looks like pauly did congrats!
Comment -
Alright everyone, I just spent the last 3 hours re-doing this spreadsheet haha, I have to say I kind of turned my head on RLM but after looking at the ratios compared to how I was doing I think what you guys started with is the way to go (at least for the moment being), games 63% or more, 3000 total bets or more, and at least 1 point of line movement, AND a spread = or under 8 are 16-9 since 1/21! and if you take out the spread requirement, but leave everything else the same, RLM is 42-27! I should specify I'm only looking at college basketball games as of right now so all my figures are from that.
Going to be doing what I was ORIGINALLY going to try from now on.
Only betting the .5 or more games, and doubling down on games with 1 or more.
BOL all!
... this minnesota game is mind boggling to me so far today. Wisconsin is way better than them..?Last edited by detroitigerz; 02-09-12, 02:33 PM.Comment -
I'm going to give wiseguy an assist while he's out of pocket. After last night, we stand at 75-57-1 for this thread.
2-9-12 hoops plays as of 1410 CDT:
Kings
FAU
WKU
Watch List:
Northern Colorado
USC
Illinois
Tennessee State
Santa Clara
Portland
Fairfield
College of Charleston
NC Greensboro
Last edited by Night-Tripper; 02-09-12, 05:03 PM.Comment -
Hey Night-tripper,
Are you using RLM when you look at the basketball money lines? How have you done compared to the spread? I thought about using RLM for money lines and totals but I was just curious as to how those do compared to the spread.
Thanks for the input.
In other news I've been working on my spreadsheet more and more, hoping to get it back a few months at least but it seems to be taking a lot longer than I thought it would, =/.Comment -
I don't compare percentages when playing moneylines... I just use the spread percentages. Whenever I see what I consider to be a live dog, I just toss 30% to 50% of whatever I'm playing on the spread on the moneyline.
For example... last night Pauly was 4-5 and a lot of people are giving him props for going 5x on Duke, which allowed him to show a profit. If I really liked Duke, I would have played them for 1x or 1.5x and then tossed 30% to 50% on the moneyline. More bang for the buck at less financial risk.
These are the games that I played spread/moneyline on last night:
Rockets +8/450 = won 450
Rockets +295/200 = Won 590
Northern Illinois +8/450 = Won 450
Northern Illinois +290/200 = Won 580
South Carolina +7/450 = Lost 495
South Carolina +265/200 = Lost 200
Pistons +3.5/450 = Won 450
Pistons +135/200 = Won 270
CMU +5/450 = Won 450
CMU +165/200 = Lost 200
Sometimes I'll lose both (as in the case of South Carolina last night), but my plan is to at least hit the spread, which will guarantee me a positive win for the wagers. And... if they actually win the game, I'll have a nice payday with minimal cash risk. The only time I'll go large with no moneyline play is on a favorite... not worth the financial risk versus reward.
I haven't done any exact statistical research... but I'm pretty sure that a large enough number of +3 -> +8 dogs win when they cover... which has made my system profitable for me. If I don't feel good about a dog, I'll just play the spread.
Long story short... I don't look for RLM when it comes to moneylines... I base my plays off of the RLM on the spread.Comment
for tonight with 52 college and 4 pro games. Just need to stay focused and play what we know. Enjoying the thread so far but some of these later post are getting out there.
