HG's 2017-18 College Basketball Thread

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-19-17, 12:18 AM

7:00 Elon/Canisius u144
I get 66 possessions here, and I think it could go lower. Often when you get teams that play the same style, those style compound each other and lead to unusually high or low possession games. This is one of those instances where both teams are very deliberate on offense, which could lead to a lot fewer possessions than their season averages. I think this line is skewed some by the 6 OT periods Elon has played. Those games have bumped up their season averages for points and points allowed. Greensboro plays a tempo similar to Canisius, and Elon's game against UNC-G was played to 64 possessions. These teams should not be good enough offensively to get to 145+, but Elon does shoot a lot of threes, which can change an under very quickly.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-19-17, 12:43 PM

May have a few others today. Will try to get them out as quickly as possible:

8:30 Morehead St/Butler o140
I think we see 70+ possessions here. Butler should have a field day scoring and will likely get over 80 without much effort. Slight concern that the lead gets too big and the Bulldogs sit on the ball, but I like this one to get into the mid-140s at least.

**2daBank** · 12-19-17, 01:41 PM

If you got a minute buddy I'm curious where you have cuse total? I jumped on cuss and like that but more I thought about more sense under made to me but I have yet to put come up my number. Doing this one kinda ass backwards for me, lol.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-19-17, 01:42 PM

8:00 Texas A&M -11.5
Robert Williams is listed as probable, but even if he doesn't play points should be hard to come by for the Norse.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-19-17, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

If you got a minute buddy I'm curious where you have cuse total? I jumped on cuss and like that but more I thought about more sense under made to me but I have yet to put come up my number. Doing this one kinda ass backwards for me, lol.

I usually stay away from Syracuse totals, except for unders. I think this number is pretty close, but it mostly hinges on whether Buffalo can hit threes. Most of the predictors I look at have it around 148. My model has 149. But if I look at it by possessions I get 142ish. Not enough for me to play it either way.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-19-17, 02:02 PM

I think this is the last one for Tuesday:

10:00 St Mary's -8.5

**2daBank** · 12-19-17, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

I usually stay away from Syracuse totals, except for unders. I think this number is pretty close, but it mostly hinges on whether Buffalo can hit threes. Most of the predictors I look at have it around 148. My model has 149. But if I look at it by possessions I get 142ish. Not enough for me to play it either way.

Much appreciated. Yea my main thing is I expect buffalo to really struggle, they not really built to beat a zone. Certainly expect cuse to dictate pace, and their length to bother the few decent long range shooters bulls have.. I like cuse side better, offensive boards should be there for both sides, don't like that for a under. Kp has bulls scoring 69 which I think high., thanks for response, i try not to ask guys about games they not on too much, believe me I know how much work it is and can get overwhelming responding to bunch of questions about games you passed on! Even worse sometimes while answering it gets me to play a game I initially had no interest in when I went thru card!! lol

**Louisvillekid1** · 12-19-17, 04:23 PM

Get em !

**ChrisPicks** · 12-19-17, 05:53 PM

goodluck

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-20-17, 07:15 AM

3-3 last night. Illinois St went 13-28 from the FT line to keep us from a winning night.

Thread: 47-43 (+3.49u)

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-20-17, 09:08 AM

2:00 Bradley/SEMO o140
I disagree a little with kenpom here and think we see 70+ possessions (he has 67). These two played last year to a 162 total, but more importantly for my purposes, there were 73 possessions. Same coaches and largely the same players (at least on the Bradley side).

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-20-17, 10:59 AM

Looks like just the one play today. You might start seeing more 2u plays from me in the coming weeks/months. This is not a chase or anything like that. Rather, there are certain plays (like Elon/Canisius last night) where I see a more significant edge. Not only do I intend to play those more heavily, I want a way to distinguish them here for anyone who may be interested.

**Louisvillekid1** · 12-20-17, 01:06 PM

Let’s get it

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-20-17, 04:06 PM

1-0 somehow. Still not sure what happened in the last 30 seconds, but it's nice to be on the good side of one of these.

Thread: 48-43 (+4.49u)

**Balco10** · 12-20-17, 04:06 PM

Nice smash Heeluva! You too Kid.

**Brutus84** · 12-20-17, 04:23 PM

Lol I don’t know how you won. My phone showed like 70-60 with 15 secs left. I had 1h over 66.5. If I hadn’t seen this thread I wouldn’t have bet the game. Thanks!!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-20-17, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by Brutus84

Lol I don’t know how you won. My phone showed like 70-60 with 15 secs left. I had 1h over 66.5. If I hadn’t seen this thread I wouldn’t have bet the game. Thanks!!

Glad you got a winner. The ending doesn't make any sense, but I've been on the other side of those plenty of times.

**2daBank** · 12-20-17, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Glad you got a winner. The ending doesn't make any sense, but I've been on the other side of those plenty of times.

No shit. I look at it like we deserve those every freakin time it happens cause god knows I get fukked enough by ot, or a team continuing to foul down 15, or any number of other ways!!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-21-17, 12:08 AM

For Thursday:

8:00 UIC/Northern Illinois o144.5
I won't be surprised to see this number drop a little, but I like it here. I get 75 possessions, which should give these two mediocre offenses enough opportunities to get to 145+. These two played to 74 possessions last year in a game that ended in the 92-81.

**2daBank** · 12-21-17, 12:17 AM

If you got a second would love to hear where ya got Purdue total? More often than not I'm looking to play under on big spreads and certainly was looking that way here as Tennessee st a good squad to look that way with their slow pace and decent defense to go with hideous offense. But man they came low here I think. Purdue has put up 80+ on very similar teams pace and defensive ratings wise, actually teams with better defensive ratings. If boilermakers put up 80 here just need 54 from tigers which I don't think asking too much! Plus Purdue could very well be over 80.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-21-17, 07:28 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

If you got a second would love to hear where ya got Purdue total? More often than not I'm looking to play under on big spreads and certainly was looking that way here as Tennessee st a good squad to look that way with their slow pace and decent defense to go with hideous offense. But man they came low here I think. Purdue has put up 80+ on very similar teams pace and defensive ratings wise, actually teams with better defensive ratings. If boilermakers put up 80 here just need 54 from tigers which I don't think asking too much! Plus Purdue could very well be over 80.

These games are tough and I don't usually spend a lot of time on them (except where an uptempo cupcake is involved). This one is even harder for me because of the high percentage of points that come from three for Tennessee St. I find three point shooting to be one of the toughest things to predict in college basketball.

That said, I think this one is closer to 70 possessions than the kenpom number at 66. Using that pace, I get right at 55 for Tennessee St, and I feel pretty confident that's on the low end. I get Purdue at 79 using pretty conservative numbers at 70 possessions, but I agree that it looks like they're going over 80.

Turns out this is close to a play for me on the over, but I'm gonna pass. Last night Duke scored 104 in a game that stayed under. That's my concern for games like these no matter what the numbers tell me.

**2daBank** · 12-21-17, 10:09 AM

Thanks bro. Yea I understand not liking these, I generally prefer under if anything cause I don't trust pace to continue last 4 minutes in a blowout. The more I looked tho this one just seemed pretty short so couldnt resist.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-21-17, 11:16 AM

Well, I screwed up this morning and missed a good play by being greedy waiting for a line to move. Last night I liked USA/Tulane o141. But the kenpom number was 136, so I thought there was a good chance the number would drop. It did - at first. 140 was available a couple of hours ago. Then it ran up to 142, and now 143.5 a lot of places. I was planning to play it 2u at 139 if it got there, and now it looks like I'm sitting it out all together. FWIW, I have a very high tempo game that could have up to 75 possessions. Guess that's what I get for trying to outsmart the market.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-21-17, 11:57 AM

1:00 S Alabama/Tulane o142
See above. I have this one at 145+, so I'll play it here even though I missed the good numbers.

**jeffchitown** · 12-21-17, 12:26 PM

I’m curious why a couple people like the over. I feel like this game is more comparable to Tulane vs Fordham. That game had a total of 118. I want to bet the under but you all making me nervous with your strong opinions on the over.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-21-17, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by jeffchitown

I’m curious why a couple people like the over. I feel like this game is more comparable to Tulane vs Fordham. That game had a total of 118. I want to bet the under but you all making me nervous with your strong opinions on the over.

To me this one is all about pace. South Alabama plays a lot faster than Fordham (17.1 seconds/possession vs 18.6 for Fordham). I also think that South Alabama wants to play faster than it has this season. Tulane loves that style, so I'm expecting an up and down game.

**jeffchitown** · 12-21-17, 12:40 PM

Yeah I don’t know about that how much can you really trust that without deep diving into each game they played. Opponents alter game tempo and Fordham has faced a lot of slower teams making their general game tempo slower. South Alabama being the under dog is not going to be in a rush to let Tulane have its way. I took the under 143.5 in a parlay earlier so I hope the game ends at 143 so we both win haha. My prediction for the game is Tulane 72 to 60.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-21-17, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by jeffchitown

Yeah I don’t know about that how much can you really trust that without deep diving into each game they played. Opponents alter game tempo and Fordham has faced a lot of slower teams making their general game tempo slower. South Alabama being the under dog is not going to be in a rush to let Tulane have its way. I took the under 143.5 in a parlay earlier so I hope the game ends at 143 so we both win haha. My prediction for the game is Tulane 72 to 60.

With limited exceptions, I have found offensive time of possession to be an excellent indicator of pace of play. Raw possession numbers can be misleading because they are affected by the other team's pace (and overtimes). My general approach is to seek out matching styles because I have found they often compound each other and result in a deviation from averages/expected norms. If you look back at the Elon game a few nights ago, you'll see what I mean (though that was a matchup of two slow teams).

Of course, pace/possessions is only part of it. Offensive/defensive efficiency (points per possession) is an important aspect that can sometimes be difficult to predict.

Regardless, BOL as always!

**jeffchitown** · 12-21-17, 01:32 PM

looks like you were probably right on the over. This game is heading that direction.

**Brutus84** · 12-21-17, 04:21 PM

I’m taking Northern Illinois ML. Might be -175 but UIC hasn’t won on road I believe.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-21-17, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by Brutus84

I’m taking Northern Illinois ML. Might be -175 but UIC hasn’t won on road I believe.

I don't have an opinion on the side, but BOL!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-21-17, 05:27 PM

I have one other after this. Just waiting to see if I can get a better number:

9:30 UC Irvine/Idaho o135
I have this one approaching 70 possessions, which should be enough to get this one over.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-21-17, 07:27 PM

Last one:

8:30 Portland/Sacramento St u136
I see a few 137s out there but not available to me. I have this one at about 66 possessions and 130 or so.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-21-17, 10:53 PM

Ugh. Looking like a rough night. First one for Friday:

7:00 Bradley/Ole Miss o140.5
I have this one at 71+ possessions. These two are efficient enough offensively to get us there at that pace.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-21-17, 11:33 PM

1-3 day. With the exception of the UIC/NIU game, I was pretty close with the number of possessions. Shooting variance is primarily what caused the Portland/Sac St and UCI/Idaho losses.

Thread: 49-46 (+2.19u)