HG's College Hoops Thread

[cooperman]

this total is more in Kent's range to go over. the last few times the books reached and put them in the 150's.

I'm surprised that neither you or DD have forayed int the C. Michigan over streak. 12-3 to the over. They are routinely in the 180's. They go over b/c CMU isn't very good and coach Keno Davis' philosophy is anything 15 pts and under start fouling with 2 min to go. their PPP may not be impressive but this is one heck of a streak.

[HeeluvaGuy]

this total is more in Kent's range to go over. the last few times the books reached and put them in the 150's.

I'm surprised that neither you or DD have forayed int the C. Michigan over streak. 12-3 to the over. They are routinely in the 180's. They go over b/c CMU isn't very good and coach Keno Davis' philosophy is anything 15 pts and under start fouling with 2 min to go. their PPP may not be impressive but this is one heck of a streak.

I played them some in the non conference schedule. They're a silly offensive team. But I tend to stay away from teams that shoot that many threes. I find that it's nearly impossible to predict whether a team will shoot well or not. Pace and free throw rates are a little more reliable.

BOL tonight!

[HeeluvaGuy]

1-1 night for me, though folks who got the NIU game at 138.5 won. Really frustrating to lose that game, especially since there were 3 missed FTs in the last 40 seconds that could have gotten us a push or win.


Thread: 59-52 (+2.78u)
Totals only: 57-47

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 Minnesota/Ohio St o134.5 -102
These two played at the Barn 17 days ago to a 78-68 final. Minnesota does not score as well on the road, and both defenses are good, but we should see 72+ possessions in this one to get us over 134 points. Kenpom has it at 70 possessions.

[slamuels2021]

Good job getting the -102. Do you mind sharing where you got that from?..

[HeeluvaGuy]

Good job getting the -102. Do you mind sharing where you got that from?..

It's available on 5Dimes under Reduced Juice.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Fwiw, I may have other plays today. Just running a bit behind today.

[Flea Hotel]

wow, that number moved fast. whoever keeps dropping dimes on your plays should wait a few minutes for the rest of us to get a bet in ..

7:00 Minnesota/Ohio St o134.5 -102
These two played at the Barn 17 days ago to a 78-68 final. Minnesota does not score as well on the road, and both defenses are good, but we should see 72+ possessions in this one to get us over 134 points. Kenpom has it at 70 possessions.

[HeeluvaGuy]

A rare side for me tonight:

9:00 Wyoming -7 -106
UNLV has only two players on its roster who have ever played in Laramie. Only one of those players has logged more than 2 minutes in a game. Why does this matter? 7,200 feet above sea level is why. It's one reason Wyoming is 10-1 at home (6-3 ATS), and should present a real problem for the Runnin' Rebels tonight. This advantage doesn't exist against most MWC teams, but it does against this UNLV team that basically has never experienced this altitude. I'm looking for Wyoming's tempo to wear UNLV down and for the Cowboys to extend the lead late with their terrific FT shooting.

[HeeluvaGuy]

wow, that number moved fast. whoever keeps dropping dimes on your plays should wait a few minutes for the rest of us to get a bet in ..

I only wish line movement equaled winning. I would feel comfortable with this one up to 136.5. Above that I'd probably pass.

[Flea Hotel]

It's 138 on 5Dimes reduced. Oh well. I like the Wyoming play.

I only wish line movement equaled winning. I would feel comfortable with this one up to 136.5. Above that I'd probably pass.

[frisky]

The only thing that scares me on the Wyoming play is that they host Boisie on Saturday and don't get caught looking ahead

[HeeluvaGuy]

The only thing that scares me on the Wyoming play is that they host Boisie on Saturday and don't get caught looking ahead

Perhaps. All plays have risk. But at 3-4 in conference, Wyoming can't really afford to look ahead to anyone. This is also a revenge game for the Cowboys. BOL with your plays!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Those two are it for me. GL tonight to all!

[cooperman]

Didn't realize you were a limit player and moved lines that much . BOL tonight

[Flea Hotel]

I don't think it takes too many dime bets to move a lower tier NCAAB game number much but I swear to God, if I'm two hours late with HG or DD's plays, 9 times out of 10 I'm priced out. You and C-Batch, I have your schedules figured out and almost always beat the movement. I also primarily use Pinnacle which seems to sustain it's lines longer than 5Dimes and other books, maybe since they don't take American players, so they probably adjust numbers more to Vegas and the big off-shores that accept Americans, giving people like me a bit more time. Meh.

Didn't realize you were a limit player and moved lines that much . BOL tonight

[HeeluvaGuy]

1-1 night. No words for that second half collapse by Wyoming.

Thread: 60-53 (+2.72u)
Totals only: 58-47

[cooperman]

Thought you were headed for the sweep at the half. Sometimes things just don't make sense. Who wasn't used to playing at altitude...lol

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thought you were headed for the sweep at the half. Sometimes things just don't make sense. Who wasn't used to playing at altitude...lol

They could have played this one on the beach using the ocean as the basket and Wyoming wouldn't have been able to score. They probably missed 10 shots within three feet in the second half. The real twist of the knife, though, was the two three point prayers UNLV hit with the shot clock expiring somewhere in the middle of the second half. One was a turnaround three and the other was a 35-footer. Turns out 6 points mattered...

[HeeluvaGuy]

Didn't realize you were a limit player and moved lines that much . BOL tonight

Looks like I'm moving lines with my mind now. Two overs I was ready to pull the trigger on today have already jumped up on me.

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 Manhattan/Niagara o151 -110
I think we see a few more possessions than the last time these two played at Manhattan. The defenses are so bad that this can easily get over 150 with a decent showing by the offenses tonight. The bad news is that the last game finished at 147 (push), but Niagara plays a little faster at home and scores a little better there as well. Hoping that's the difference. I get 75+ possessions. Kenpom has 71.

[HeeluvaGuy]

0-1 night. Somehow finished at 139 after 50 points in the first 10 minutes of the game. Can't get going right now.

Thread: 60-53 (+1.62u)
Totals only: 58-48

[HeeluvaGuy]

9:00 Wright St/Valparaiso o140.5 -110
I get 71+ possessions here, which I think will be enough to get this one over 140. Valpo isn't quite as good defensively as it has been in recent years, and I think they will be able to score over the smaller Wright St team.

[slamuels2021]

Dam. I guess I late to the party on this one. I just checked and it is at 144.5 now.

I hate it when works get in the way me making my plays. LOL

[slamuels2021]

Dam. I guess I late to the party on this one. I just checked and it is at 144.5 now.<br>

I hate it when works get in the way me making my plays. LOL

oops! sorry for the double post. clearly i cant multi task at work

[HeeluvaGuy]

Dam. I guess I late to the party on this one. I just checked and it is at 144.5 now.

I hate it when works get in the way me making my plays. LOL

That one was up to 144.5 last night and down to 140 in some places this morning. As you note, it bounced back up pretty quickly.

But with 300+ games per week there are plenty of plays to go around.

[HeeluvaGuy]

9:00 Idaho St/Weber St o140.5 -110
These two played two nights ago to an 83-75 finish on 73 possessions. I get 70+ possessions again tonight, and we don't need near the efficiency of he lost game to get over 140 at that pace. The line is a little odd, but the defenses are very bad. Kenpom has 66 possessions.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1-1 night. Wright St was 3-28 from 3, which killed any chance at the over in that one.

Thread: 61-54 (+1.52u)
Totals only: 59-49

[HeeluvaGuy]

As with most Saturdays, I'm working my way through the card as best I can. I hope everyone has a great day! First play:

2:00 LSU/Texas Tech u153 -105
Let’s start with the bad … It looks like there were better lines out there at one point (154.5?). This game is also one I normally would pass by because of the contrast in styles (LSU wants to run, TTU does not). Oh, and I also don’t like unders. All that said, I get a game played at 70 possessions or less (Kenpom has 68). Based on the efficiencies I estimate, they will need at least 73 possessions to get over 153. There are also some tactical elements that I think favor the under, such as poor FT shooting by LSU and a lack of FT attempts. I normally don’t play games with such contrasting styles, but in my experience the slower team, the better team, and the home team (in that order) normally gets its pace. Here that team is TTU, so I like the under.

[HeeluvaGuy]

3:30 Eastern Michigan/Miami (OH) o147 -110
I really like the FT numbers for this one. I also get a 74+ possession game, which should be enough to get us over 147. EMU’s defense is always a bit of a concern because they can slow teams down with their zone. Kenpom has 69 possessions.

4:00 UT Chattanooga/East Tennessee St o141.5 -110
I get at least 72 possessions here. Despite the nice defenses, these two should be able to average at least 1 point per possession. Getting to the FT line will help with that. Kenpom has 69 possessions.

[Louisvillekid1]

Looks good bro , crush it!

What dies your numbers say about my 3 totals?

Im feeling extremely confident w/ my card

[sedwards86]

This is my first time in this thread, please excuse my naivety. I like your angle using possessions per game. It looks like every total would require around 2 points per possession (both teams combined). Is that typical of a college basketball game?

[HeeluvaGuy]

Looks good bro , crush it!

What dies your numbers say about my 3 totals?

Im feeling extremely confident w/ my card

I'm rarely "extremely confident." Haha.

I agree with the WVu under and the Marist over. They just didn't quite make it for me today. I don't do halftimes, so no opinion there.

BOL today and thanks for dropping in.

[HeeluvaGuy]

This is my first time in this thread, please excuse my naivety. I like your angle using possessions per game. It looks like every total would require around 2 points per possession (both teams combined). Is that typical of a college basketball game?

The average PPP per team so far this season is 1.006356. The range is from 1.194 (UCLA) to .807 (Western Carolina). Obviously each game is unique, but 1 PPP (per team) is a good rule of thumb.

BOL today!

[DOM_Toretto]

The average PPP per team so far this season is 1.006356. The range is from 1.194 (UCLA) to .807 (Western Carolina). Obviously each game is unique, but 1 PPP (per team) is a good rule of thumb.

BOL today!

Curious as to why/how you're not on the Kansas-Kentucky OVER? These 2 teams average 15 seconds per possession = about 160 possession (or 80 as you would say) for the game. Both KU & UK avg. >1 PPP (actually I think both are closer to 1.15 PPP). I calculated 187 total, so the 168/169 total o/u is a no brainer over to me. Thoughts?