Lkid1's Plays

[harthebar]

tampa race 5 thing top seed will be at the front, should run a better then last race hopefully cave run will be a bit closer try to get in the number he has a new trainer...

top seed
cave runner

[Jellymancan]

Top Seed ran well. Interesting one coming up here R7 at Tampa.

[Louisvillekid1]

Tampa r7

7 to win

[Louisvillekid1]

thomas has been hot

He unreal with maidens , especially on the turf

[Jellymancan]

Thought the #7 would be lower than 5/2.

[Bcatswin]

Gassed out.

[Bcatswin]

That Creed was pretty impressive.

[Louisvillekid1]

Those are some horses to watch out for

[Jellymancan]

Creed looked good I exacted the 6 and 7.

[Wabashwonders]

Race 7...#5 Piven 15-1, versatile 5 year old gelding has won on both dirt and poly, gets back on the turf where he ran 3rd beaten 3 lengths and 4th beaten just 2 lengths last year in sprints at Woodbine. Adds Lasix and stretches out in comeback after freshening. #11 Dr. Edgar 5-2, drops into a starter allowance and is the one to beat. The outside post could cause a wide trip with all the other speed here. #9 Grand Journey 6-1, is very consistent and should get a decent pace to run into. #12 Morocco 9-2, cuts back from longer routes and should be flying late if Saez can work out a trip from far outside post. #1 Driven by Thunder will be part of the pace and has to be respected.

Race 8...wide open race that anyone could win. If I had to pick 2, I’d go with #6 LiL Miss Hot Mess 9-2, and #2 Money Never Sleeps 3-1.

Race 9...#7 Ry’s the Guy 15-1, my longshot play of the day. 4 year old makes 3rd start off 5 month layoff. Ran 4th in a fast race at a mile here in February beaten just 2 lengths. Last out, went to the lead from far outside post at 1 1/16 miles, and dueled before fading in the final furlong beaten just over 3 lengths. Now he adds a little more distance to 1 1/8 miles and takes the blinkers off. This horse ran 2nd last year in a 1 5/16 miles race at Kentucky Downs, so he will relish the extra distance. He also finished just ahead of #1 Temple in that race. With the blinkers off, I expect this horse to relax more and set back off the pace and have a strong finish late. #1 Temple 3-1, is in top form and definitely the one to beat. #11 Arthur Kitt 9-2, returns after a long layoff for a trainer who can get them ready off the bench.

[Louisvillekid1]

Gonna try a new format tomorrow for an easier follow

I’ll base plays off having $200 max available to risk

Thursday Gulf


R1 $10W #10 ($10)
R3 $10W #1 ($10) $2 Ex box 1,3,8 ($12)
R4 $10W #4 ($10) $1 tri 4 w/ 1,5,9 w/ 1,3,5,6,9 ($12)
R6 $1 Pick 5: 2/ 9,11/ All / 1,11/1 ($28)
R6 $20 DD, 2 w/ 9/11 ($40)


($122)


I think this format could help and give. Better idea what’s going on

these are my overnight potential moves before changes...

I’ll quote and edit , if any key changes play a role

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 7...#5 Piven 15-1, versatile 5 year old gelding has won on both dirt and poly, gets back on the turf where he ran 3rd beaten 3 lengths and 4th beaten just 2 lengths last year in sprints at Woodbine. Adds Lasix and stretches out in comeback after freshening. #11 Dr. Edgar 5-2, drops into a starter allowance and is the one to beat. The outside post could cause a wide trip with all the other speed here. #9 Grand Journey 6-1, is very consistent and should get a decent pace to run into. #12 Morocco 9-2, cuts back from longer routes and should be flying late if Saez can work out a trip from far outside post. #1 Driven by Thunder will be part of the pace and has to be respected.

Race 8...wide open race that anyone could win. If I had to pick 2, I’d go with #6 LiL Miss Hot Mess 9-2, and #2 Money Never Sleeps 3-1.

Race 9...#7 Ry’s the Guy 15-1, my longshot play of the day. 4 year old makes 3rd start off 5 month layoff. Ran 4th in a fast race at a mile here in February beaten just 2 lengths. Last out, went to the lead from far outside post at 1 1/16 miles, and dueled before fading in the final furlong beaten just over 3 lengths. Now he adds a little more distance to 1 1/8 miles and takes the blinkers off. This horse ran 2nd last year in a 1 5/16 miles race at Kentucky Downs, so he will relish the extra distance. He also finished just ahead of #1 Temple in that race. With the blinkers off, I expect this horse to relax more and set back off the pace and have a strong finish late. #1 Temple 3-1, is in top form and definitely the one to beat. #11 Arthur Kitt 9-2, returns after a long layoff for a trainer who can get them ready off the bench.

Great write ups

[Louisvillekid1]

I think it will make for a nice transition

when New York starts back up

doing a tracking $2k bankroll

I think it will help others continue to follow horse racing when other sports start back also

[Jellymancan]

GP 4/23- short opinions, can elaborate more if asked. Put them in order on expected outcome.

R1- 10,9,7, 3(longshot)

Laska on the drop should win this, Bravo's been cold though, if Berrios were on 9 would like more, 7 is a wildcard, could fit.

R2- 6,7,5,4

Cabrina decent first time start after bad break, two horses in that race came back to finish win (Mystic Comin Home and Markistan) was 100-1 last time, but if breaks well and runs his race should win.

R3- 1,4,8,6

You guys broke down the 1 pretty well. No reason to repeat. I expect improvement against this softer group, which makes him the pick.

R4- 1,4,9,3 (7 longshot)

Jaramillo will handle from the best speed numbers at this distance. Stormy Boss if can stretch out could win, 4 looks good, 9 loves this distance the most. Any of these 4.


R5- 1,7,6,2,5

Going with the upset. Last two races have been against tougher horses, 2 for 4 breaking from the rail on this surface, Lebron could save some distance from this post. Real shot.

R6- 2,6,1

Untitled should roll here as the only speed and should control the pace at an extremely short price.

R7- 9,11,7,12

Mostly everything was summed up here. Dr. Edgar been racing in stakes for 7 straight races drops here with the #9 6-5-1-0 at this distance, Morroco likes the distance with Saez/Maker, and Vasquez good price on his, good longshot jockey horse does well here.

R8-2,5,4,1

Tough one. I like the 3-1-1-1 record for the 2. Saffie 5 for his last 11 claiming out of maiden wins. Toughest race for p5 and p6 sequences.

R9-1,11,8,6

Temple will have the pace up front to set up his late kick. Dangerous finishing 2nd behind Largent last time out, some other interesting ones in here, but Saez from the rail should get perfect trip. The 8, if Bravo gets the lead, could be dangerous 2-1-1-0 at this distance for a price.

R10-1,5,9,11 (13 AE)

I bet the #10 Short Story last time out but was impressed how #1 finished at a price and told myself to play him next time out, here he is. Lost to Avenida Manana last time out who is a beast. Drops in class a little and gets a good post. Will use others in p5/p6.

[Louisvillekid1]

I love it guys

keep the thoughts coming!

we gonna build up this sub forum

[Wabashwonders]

Question race 3

#1 Dotdotdash...does the addition of blinkers again concern you guys? Tried it 2 back, then took them off last out, now back on. When I see that pattern it always raises a flag with me. This is a weak group and he may be good enough anyway, but just curious.

[Louisvillekid1]

Question race 3

#1 Dotdotdash...does the addition of blinkers again concern you guys? Tried it 2 back, then took them off last out, now back on. When I see that pattern it always raises a flag with me. This is a weak group and he may be good enough anyway, but just curious.

I think they took the eye cups off, because of the long layoff, just wanted the young filly to get a race back under her belt, and be relaxed. Now She can run her race, and be more focused on the task at hand. I don’t love this Win bet, but I’ll be willing to wager , she won’t lose to any other Fily that has previously ran. Too much back class. It’s why I’m backing up with the 2 firsters in the the exacta box.

[Louisvillekid1]

I think they took the eye cups off, because of the long layoff, just wanted the young filly to get a race back under her belt, and be relaxed. Now She can run her race, and be more focused on the task at hand. I don’t love this Win bet, but I’ll be willing to wager , she won’t lose to any other Fily that has previously ran. Too much back class. It’s why I’m backing up with the 2 firsters in the the exacta box.

the only one I think has a chance is the #13 (AE)

but Torres has been awful lately

[mrginandtonic]

Not much time look at the form.....

Here is my thoughts on Race 3. As one of my friends used to say, this whole group is trash.... I’m gonna go with a new face. So for this group, I gonna take shot at the first time starter, the 3- Awesome Light (ML 7-2) which is also the morning line favorite.... so why is she the ML favorite??

[Wabashwonders]

I think they took the eye cups off, because of the long layoff, just wanted the young filly to get a race back under her belt, and be relaxed. Now She can run her race, and be more focused on the task at hand. I don’t love this Win bet, but I’ll be willing to wager , she won’t lose to any other Fily that has previously ran. Too much back class. It’s why I’m backing up with the 2 firsters in the the exacta box.

Makes sense. Thx.

[JBEX]

Question race 3

#1 Dotdotdash...does the addition of blinkers again concern you guys? Tried it 2 back, then took them off last out, now back on. When I see that pattern it always raises a flag with me. This is a weak group and he may be good enough anyway, but just curious.

to me those races don't matter..it was before june of her 2yo year..she's a statebred filly and they chose to debut her vs open colts at 47-1and finished last..then they tried something more reasonable sb fillies and still 2nd to last..my point is she was young and hadn't established herself at all ..she's found a level she's competitive at much later in her career (relatively speaking,still a 3yo)so getting the blinkers now takes on a whole new meaning than it did back then

[Jellymancan]

I don't think the addition of the blinkers in this case is that worrisome due to the limited races she had and this is race two of her second season. Race one off layoff last time without them I would guess to ease her back, see what she can do comfortably as she was 22-1. Now to get her focused from that #1 post and run her race, saves some distance, trainer adds them as she's no giant and obviously could easily lose, but I think the addition of the blinkers this time is more positive from what the trainer so the first race of this season. I could be wrong, just my novice opinion. Small win bet for me, if I do a p5 will back up with others.

[Louisvillekid1]

R1 $10 W #10 ($10)
R3 $10 W #1 ($10)
R3 $5 Ex Box 1,3 ($10)
R4 $10 W 4 ($10)
R4 $1 Tri 4 w/ 1,5,9 w/ 1,3,5,6,9 ($12)
R6 $1 Pick 5: 2/9,11/All/1,11/1 ($24)
R6 $20 DD 2 w/ 9,11 ($40)

heres for the new format

$116

you can scale

And I’ll do it like daily for New York

[matt711]

Time to give this a try, hope your all healthy and well!

[Louisvillekid1]

It’s not r2 it’s race 3

[harthebar]

nevermind i read it wrong last night

[harthebar]

by the way kid, any follow ups that you may see , would it be cool if you post them in my thread
thanks

[Louisvillekid1]

by the way kid, any follow ups that you may see , would it be cool if you post them in my thread
thanks

you got it , I posted. Few last week

[Louisvillekid1]

Gulfstream Thursday


Race 1


This field totes a combined 0-92 mark in this low level Maiden Claimer. Faceless race, leads to me suggest the #9 Princesa Crystal (4/1) , to set the early fractions. Meneses takes over for Hector, as he isn’t riding for one reason or another. #10 Laska (3/1) , is the logical top selection to stalk here and get the score. #7 Calentita (7/2) , is play against for me.


#10 Laska to win , but need that 3/1 for a wager.


Race 2


I don’t have many positives to say about this group.


Race 3


#1 Dotdotdash (4/1) , kept some strong company last spring in New York, something that these other haven’t came close to facing. Went to the bench for 10 months and switched surfaces for the return. Ran ok , as the number pretty much tops these. Cuts the tag if half, and should take a big step forward vs these in the 2nd off the layoff try. #3 Awesome Light (7/2) , has an impressive worktable for this debut and gets in light. #4 Princess Avril (6/1) , Speed and Fade type, improving and may like the lawn. #8 Sandbah (8/1) , 5 year old mare, is definitely bred for the green stuff, and the 2 morning moves on the turf , goes a half mile in 49 and 1, 48 and 1. wont have to be much vs these.


Could see an Exacta Box using the Top Choice #1 Dotdotdash, with the 2 firsters. Also #1 to win @ 3/1 or better


Race 4


#1 Samoa (6/1) , speed from the rail, with this excellent break rider. Cant not be ignored, zero chance you’re getting this price tho. #3 Stormy Boss (7/2) , Pilot upgrade after just missing last out. Just been burning money up by the fistful, Stretching out for the first time, not for me on top. #4 Time to Two Step (4/1) , Very consistent fily on the surface, trying winners for first time and clearly fits here. I like the ability this filly has shown to either be aggressive or rate. Walder/Vasquez do great work together, The Pick. #5 Country Strong (12/1) , 5 year old mare is 2nd of the 7 month layoff and the last 2 works are excellent. Positive sign they are stretching back out, and will be moving late. Win player, but must include underneath. Victor Barboza numbers off the claim are hard to dismiss, but #6 Paynter Fest (3/1) , just doesn’t excite me. Claimed for 12.5k kept in the stable for 2 months , run for a cheaper tag, and I don’t like the way Torres is riding at all lately. Play Against for me. #9 Looking for More (9/1) , is another that has to be used underneath.


#4 Time to Two Step to win @ 3/1 or better. I think its a good race for a Trifecta, Something like 4 w/ 1,5,9 w/ 1,3,5,6,9


Like this race quite a bit.


Race 5


Tough race to figure, one thing I’ll note, If you get Double digit odds on the #2 Eight Ain’t Enough (10/1) , I think its worth a shot to hit the board. But I don’t have any edge or opinion here.


Race 6


This is a paid workout for #2 Untitled (6/5) , Prob be 2/5 , as Casse waits for a chance to score more derby points. Mark told my buddy, he’s doing great after getting rest and that shows, peep the 5/8’s work in 59 and 3 on the 10th of april. Not much other speed signed on here, but it wouldn’t matter, this one is flat out quick, and Luis takes over as we haven’t found a steady rider for this colt. Jose got hurt after the swale or woulda rode in the Gotham. Happy with the selection here. Easy single to kick off the late pick 5.


Race 7


This field is loaded with speed. Im a big fan of #11 Dr. Edgar (5/2) , and of course I love the barn. Ran very strong in the G3 last out, and if it took too much out of him, Tagg would never flip this gelding in less than a month. Much needed Class Relief here, but man will dam sure have to work hard for the lead in this field. Im going to single on one my pick 5 tickets, but will have to spread on the main ticket because of that. #2 Tizzarunner (12/1) , Just wanna write a few lines because at first you look and say “ wow how did this new barn get a horse of this quality for only 16k.” It feels like a steal, but Obv something happened in the Maker barn as this 7 year old gelding was sidelined for 7 months and dumped. Add that to the fact , that Maker is one of the most difficult barns to claim from, and have success. Red Flags here. #5 Piven (15/1) , Has the right running style to make an impact vs this speed, Should be able pick up plenty of pieces late and maybe even pull the upset. #6 Gemonteer (7/2) , Gets much needed class relief off the freshening, is 7 3-2-0 on this course , 10 3-2-2 @ the distance, and 8 outta 13 in the money overall. Might Clash with Dr Edgar, tough horse to dismiss, but would have to be a monster to finish on top vs this speed. Think you reluctantly use on the horizontal ticket. #9 Grand Journey (6/1) , Just like Piven , has the right style be a big player in this field. Must include. #10 Big Agenda (15/1) , Makes a lot of sense for maybe 3rd place, but could include, as there is potential for total collapse. I wouldn’t wanna dismiss Maker / Saez on the #12 Morocco (9/2) Either. #1 Driven by Thunder (6/1) , Does have 10 lifetime wins in 31 races and 7 outta 14 here. But needs the lead to win and has to be sent from the fail, will be up against it.


I think Dr. Edgar will show that class and run a huge race , might be able to rate even vs these. So I’ll use him on one ticket but If he doesn’t win, I think the most likely winner is #9 Grand Journey , who I feel has a huge chance here


Race 8


#2 Money Never Sleeps (3/1) , Simple must use. Last time the #1 Addison (6/1) , went Turf to dirt , broke the maiden by 6+, hard connections are to ignore. #3 Leo’s Diamond (12/1) , Cant be left off, after that debut. #4 Topo Grigio (4/1) , will be over bet and I don’t think is the winner, but probably have to include. #5 Bird Map (7/2) ,


Bottom line im going all this race, just purchasing it.


Race 9


#1 Temple (3/1) , Should lay over these, Only one im using as a saver is #11 Arthur Kittening (9/2) ,




Race 10


#1 Bahama Kitten (12/1) , has been within 2 lengths in the last 5 vs slightly tougher. Landeros getting on , tells me its time get the first win of 2020. Silly line, but would love it. Has finished ahead of most of these already. Just needs to work a trip from the rail.
Worth the risk thinking this 6 year old mare is just a step above these. All the shorter priced M/l’s have finished behind top choice in the last. To me, this horse isn’t a lock by any means, but you either single or go crazy deep. No Thanks, cmon, Give us the trip Chris, close this Pick 5 out.


So I have very strong options on this late sequence,


I will definitely be playing a pick 5 several times.

Moving this up

[harthebar]

you got it , I posted. Few last week

got them thanks

[Louisvillekid1]

2nd

Risked $10 / Returned $0

[harthebar]

R1 $10 W #10 ($10)
R3 $10 W #1 ($10)
R3 $5 Ex Box 1,3 ($10)
R4 $10 W 4 ($10)
R4 $1 Tri 4 w/ 1,5,9 w/ 1,3,5,6,9 ($12)
R6 $1 Pick 5: 2/9,11/All/1,11/1 ($24)
R6 $20 DD 2 w/ 9,11 ($40)

heres for the new format

$116

you can scale

And I’ll do it like daily for New York

Thanks kid. I'll post my pick 4 late

[Louisvillekid1]

Blew the break still ran 4th

unlucky

Risked $30 / Returned $0

[harthebar]

3rd at gulfstream stable horse the 1 you agree solid bad break.......she was ready to win today

[Louisvillekid1]

Another 2nd

Thought the 1 would beat up on the 6 more

Oh well

Risked $52 / Returned $0