[davopnz]

The psychological part of the game is much more difficult to master than crunching numbers & stats. Knew a guy who was very bright (taught himself programming and scored a top job without even having a degree) but took losses too personally and always got trapped in the cycle of chasing. He was a hardcore MLB bettor that should've known better but couldn't handle the tough beats in that sport.

I've enjoyed reading this discussion, thanks everyone for contributing. Back to sports, I'm liking the Under in tomorrow night's Bulldogs vs Dragons NRL game.

it sure is very difficult. if you guys dont mind i'm going to treat this thread as almost a journal of how i'm feeling, as i think its the only way for me to conquer these demons.

so right now am feeling pretty remorseful and getting that urge to make my money back/feeling anxious about how little money i have. just gonna watch some stuff on youtube and get some sleep.

[locsports]

it sure is very difficult. if you guys dont mind i'm going to treat this thread as almost a journal of how i'm feeling, as i think its the only way for me to conquer these demons.

so right now am feeling pretty remorseful and getting that urge to make my money back/feeling anxious about how little money i have. just gonna watch some stuff on youtube and get some sleep.

Maybe you could start your own thread for your journal, as this thread is more for tips and picks. I would prefer it anyways.

Im basically on his thread mainly to get Sando's picks.

[fitguy67]

...if you guys dont mind i'm going to treat this thread as almost a journal of how i'm feeling, as i think its the only way for me to conquer these demons.

so right now am feeling pretty remorseful and getting that urge to make my money back/feeling anxious about how little money i have. just gonna watch some stuff on youtube and get some sleep.

PLEASE start a new thread for your demon-conquering journal bro (probably more suited to a personal-development-focused blog-site)...this thread is for sports picks...not your life

[trigga50]

WNBA

Tulsa VS San Antonio
I've said in the past that I was not going to play tulsa again but this one is too tempting in my opinion so worth a play. This is the first time these teams have played this season. Tulsa have been average so far this season but have found some form of late winning their last 4 of 5 games. Hopefully they can continue that when they visit SA tomorrow. SA has been bleeding way too many points, giving up almost 80ppg whilst scoring only 72ppg giving them a variance of 8 points. Tulsa has not had the best record scoring on the road but Im hoping both teams average defence combined with Tulsa's form of late will keep this game free and open scoring. Statistics and previous games support the over in this one;

The total has gone over in 8 of Tulsa's last 12 games
The total has also gone over in 4 of Tulsas last 5 road games
The total has gone over in 4 of Tulsa's last 6 games VS San Antonio

The more Ive looked into this game the more Ive talked myself out of playing the over. The concerning part about an over play is the fact SA have been struggling offensively since losing their 1st and 2nd leading scorers. They also have another injury which is doubtful for this match which may play a factor. It could very well go way over, but if SA have an offensive brain fart, Tulsa could run away with this game and win by a big margin.

Tulsa will go into this game un-injured and Im confident they will be able to pull through here.

Tulsa +1 @$1.91 X 2.5 UNITS to win 2.27 UNITS


Seattle VS Minnesota
Minnesota are on the verge of their 10th straight home win for the season. -13.5 is a big line against a Seattle side which has been a covering and upset machine this season, however I still see big value in the -13.5 here. When a Seattle team ranked last in rebounds, last in assists and second to last in PPG comes into town to play a team which is number 2 in PPG, 1st in Assists and 1st in rebounds blowouts tend to happen. As is stands Minnesota have an average variance of 9.3PPG vs PA, and Seattle has a -3.3 variance. That is without looking at the fact the best team is playing one of the worst here. The only danger with Seattle is when they grind out games defensively and you have team totals floating in the 60's, having said this Im confident Minnesota will put Seattle away early and Seattle are not the type of team to come back and win quarters by big numbers.

Minnesota +13.5 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.36 UNITS


Candice Parker is questionable for LA sparks tomorrow, so I won't be making a play unless Im sure of her game status. Candice Parker not only adds plenty of scoring power to the LA Sparks but she also resembles a big part of their defence.

[davopnz]

well it would seem im not the only one trying to master money management and people have said this discussion has been good but no worries i can start a new thread

[Vinnie Paz]

WTF!

i turned off the port/crows game halfway thru last quarter...only just logged onto forums and saw the result just now...unreal! Sometimes sports are fun

Unbelievable!!! I was up till fukkin 4am following that shit and said forget this I'm finally gonna crash, crazy ass shit this gambling is

Man this davo guy is fukkin barrelled in, find a girlfriend or something man...

[SonSquad]

Hope some of you guys cashed on my danish soccer bet - more to come tomorrow

[ender749]

Hope some of you guys cashed on my danish soccer bet - more to come tomorrow

nice one mate!

[davopnz]

Unbelievable!!! I was up till fukkin 4am following that shit and said forget this I'm finally gonna crash, crazy ass shit this gambling is

Man this davo guy is fukkin barrelled in, find a girlfriend or something man...

this post sounds quite contradictive

[OZnBa Fan]

Tulsa were up by 8 and 10 twice in the game they blew it

[Shazzadude]

Anything on the Asia champs guys? I'm thinking Jordan-Qatar over could be good. Total's set at 140.5, which seems low for a Qatari game, Qatar are a side that can rack up the foul shots, thus why they managed to put 75 on Japan off just 36% shooting. I presume the Jordan-Saudi Arabia game is influencing the total here, but the games against Chinese Taipei and Philippines scores suggest Jordan will play an uptempo game if that's what's dictated to them.

[marshmellow]

Anything on the Asia champs guys? I'm thinking Jordan-Qatar over could be good. Total's set at 140.5, which seems low for a Qatari game, Qatar are a side that can rack up the foul shots, thus why they managed to put 75 on Japan off just 36% shooting. I presume the Jordan-Saudi Arabia game is influencing the total here, but the games against Chinese Taipei and Philippines scores suggest Jordan will play an uptempo game if that's what's dictated to them.

Never come to a conclusion about totals in fiba asia...the fourth quarters are nightmares for a non-inplay bettor..

[marshmellow]

and Jordan are experts in effing up the spreads in the last 30 secs..

[Shazzadude]

Haha yeah this is pretty brutal.

[marshmellow]

I'm 1-5 in the overs...That is just ugly and depressing

[king_danilo92]

india +33.. iran beat them last year by 12. http://www.scoresway.com/?sport=bask...72917&view=h2h

[king_danilo92]

and to davopnz... karma bro for being a dickk to me.. get some help man, go to psych forums

[davopnz]

and to davopnz... karma bro for being a dickk to me.. get some help man, go to psych forums

lol @ you chiming in, karma my ass. i was being a dicck to you because you were being a tool towards sando for no reason whatsoever, and funnily enough after awhile you left him alone so job well done i guess.

also you are another hypocrite because we all know you have gambling issues too, as you've tried to blame being a tool towards sando on losing large sums of money.

don't come in here trying to make yourself feel better about your own insecurities by projecting.


also sorry sando and to all others as this has gone from constructive help to derailing the thread, i will stop clogging up the thread. I plan to give my ITM cup preview in here after I've written it up to get things back on track

[fitguy67]

that's it davo...keep that attitude, use your knowledge of a few sports markets, AND (here's the crucial one) adhere--no matter what, no matter how you feel about the game or recent $-gains or -losses or about life...no matter what--adhere to a small-%-of-roll unit-definition..and u'r on the right path, mate

[king_danilo92]

lol @ you chiming in, karma my ass. i was being a dicck to you because you were being a tool towards sando for no reason whatsoever, and funnily enough after awhile you left him alone so job well done i guess.

also you are another hypocrite because we all know you have gambling issues too, as you've tried to blame being a tool towards sando on losing large sums of money.

don't come in here trying to make yourself feel better about your own insecurities by projecting.


also sorry sando and to all others as this has gone from constructive help to derailing the thread, i will stop clogging up the thread. I plan to give my ITM cup preview in here after I've written it up to get things back on track

were all gambling brothers here, lets all make some serious cash

[Cobra Kai]

Anyone else feel like there's value in Kennedy to win the Coleman @ $1.70? I feel like with a 5 goal head start and with 4 games to go the west coast players WILL try to sew it up for him with little else to play for. Hawthorn do have a tough schedule as well. Roughead in for a quiet week or 2 perhaps?

[king_danilo92]

and davo, im 20, i know your 19.. started at 16 betting... lets beat the books.. cheers to the youth

[davopnz]

Happy to call it a truce king, we were both out of line. As long as we are on the same page going forth that's what matters

Thanks fitguy, appreciate the words of encouragement

[king_danilo92]

Happy to call it a truce king, we were both out of line. As long as we are on the same page going forth that's what matters
Thanks fitguy, appreciate the words of encouragement

yesir truce it is everyone has their problems man, i do too. you should see a psychologist or something, thats what ive been doing, it helps!

[kobstopa]

WNBA

Tulsa VS San Antonio
I've said in the past that I was not going to play tulsa again but this one is too tempting in my opinion so worth a play. This is the first time these teams have played this season. Tulsa have been average so far this season but have found some form of late winning their last 4 of 5 games. Hopefully they can continue that when they visit SA tomorrow. SA has been bleeding way too many points, giving up almost 80ppg whilst scoring only 72ppg giving them a variance of 8 points. Tulsa has not had the best record scoring on the road but Im hoping both teams average defence combined with Tulsa's form of late will keep this game free and open scoring. Statistics and previous games support the over in this one;

The total has gone over in 8 of Tulsa's last 12 games
The total has also gone over in 4 of Tulsas last 5 road games
The total has gone over in 4 of Tulsa's last 6 games VS San Antonio

The more Ive looked into this game the more Ive talked myself out of playing the over. The concerning part about an over play is the fact SA have been struggling offensively since losing their 1st and 2nd leading scorers. They also have another injury which is doubtful for this match which may play a factor. It could very well go way over, but if SA have an offensive brain fart, Tulsa could run away with this game and win by a big margin.

Tulsa will go into this game un-injured and Im confident they will be able to pull through here.

Tulsa +1 @$1.91 X 2.5 UNITS to win 2.27 UNITS


Seattle VS Minnesota
Minnesota are on the verge of their 10th straight home win for the season. -13.5 is a big line against a Seattle side which has been a covering and upset machine this season, however I still see big value in the -13.5 here. When a Seattle team ranked last in rebounds, last in assists and second to last in PPG comes into town to play a team which is number 2 in PPG, 1st in Assists and 1st in rebounds blowouts tend to happen. As is stands Minnesota have an average variance of 9.3PPG vs PA, and Seattle has a -3.3 variance. That is without looking at the fact the best team is playing one of the worst here. The only danger with Seattle is when they grind out games defensively and you have team totals floating in the 60's, having said this Im confident Minnesota will put Seattle away early and Seattle are not the type of team to come back and win quarters by big numbers.

Minnesota +13.5 X 1.5 UNITS to win 1.36 UNITS


Candice Parker is questionable for LA sparks tomorrow, so I won't be making a play unless Im sure of her game status. Candice Parker not only adds plenty of scoring power to the LA Sparks but she also resembles a big part of their defence.

Tulsa laid egg in the end, after a dominance first half.
this team got plenty of talents but just cant execute it in the end when they play road games. They're the Chicago cubs of wbna.

[Gee]

Anyone else feel like there's value in Kennedy to win the Coleman @ $1.70? I feel like with a 5 goal head start and with 4 games to go the west coast players WILL try to sew it up for him with little else to play for. Hawthorn do have a tough schedule as well. Roughead in for a quiet week or 2 perhaps?

Eagles schedule even worse. I think it is priced about right. Not huge value and an appropriate odds on favourite, so should win.

Kennedy probably lucky to kick 10 more on the year. He won't get much service in the next 3 weeks (Bombers, Cats and Pies). Most of the forwards with a chance (roughie, cameron, cloke and riewoldt) have a pretty tough run home though.

I kinda like Jack for the upset. Should kick a few vs Brisbane and GWS. Even Carlton haven't been that good defensively.

[OZnBa Fan]

Anyone else feel like there's value in Kennedy to win the Coleman @ $1.70? I feel like with a 5 goal head start and with 4 games to go the west coast players WILL try to sew it up for him with little else to play for. Hawthorn do have a tough schedule as well. Roughead in for a quiet week or 2 perhaps?

BANG yes I do, LOCK it in

[OZnBa Fan]

Eagles schedule even worse. I think it is priced about right. Not huge value and an appropriate odds on favourite, so should win.

Kennedy probably lucky to kick 10 more on the year. He won't get much service in the next 3 weeks (Bombers, Cats and Pies). Most of the forwards with a chance (roughie, cameron, cloke and riewoldt) have a pretty tough run home though.

I kinda like Jack for the upset. Should kick a few vs Brisbane and GWS. Even Carlton haven't been that good defensively.

Kennedy has been bagging goals all year and against ever1 5 goal lead is massive he will b hard to beat

[Gee]

Kennedy has been bagging goals all year and against ever1 5 goal lead is massive he will b hard to beat

I agree, which is why he is at $1.70. I meant in the previous post that I like the price on Jack with the Tigers run home and the fact that he is known for playing for Colemans (although with finals that might be different); I think Kennedy probably hangs on.

All it takes is for one of the other 4 to have one big game and Kennedy to get shut down or hurt and everything changes.

[marshmellow]

btw never take overs in the fiba asia unless Iran is playing some shitty team..I went 2-7 and 1 of the win being a blessing due to OT.

[Cobra Kai]

Had another look and yeah Jack Riewoldt is definitely most likely to challenge by the look of things.

With West Coast playing Essendon this week I fancy Kennedy may bag 3 at least and make it even more difficult for the rest.

The Bombers defense has not been the best over the last few weeks and has really struggled against big forwards. Cloke 5, Franklin 8, Roughead 4 and Cameron 4 all in the last 3 weeks.

I'm on it to win 3 units plus have half a unit on Riewoldt.

[aussieH]

I have Kennedy and cloke going for a lot so hoping Kennedy can hang on or cloke storms home. Now is not the time to take Kennedy though. If he gets injured or suspended he will get overtaken. At this stage reiwoldt is the value and danger.

Cameron will get shut down by Fremantle so is a bit risky.

[trigga50]

WNBA +15.82

Tulsa continue to be my North Melbourne, each time I don't play them they cover and everytime I play them they get outplayed and beaten bad against teams they should be winning against. Thats beaver ball I guess. . .

On a more positive note, Minnesota continue to be a strong play for me, their consistency this season has been reliable and awesome to cap each game. If the line was more around 11-12 I would have made it a stronger play but the line of -13.5 was semi risky coming up against Seattle who can be streaky against good teams.

Bulldogs came through with a strong win in NRL tonight. I was a bit put off after getting on the Tigers last minute the other night. Hopefully Sando gets back on the NRL train this weekend

Any thoughts on the early week AFL lines boys? Port +35.5 against Geelong seems enticing especially considering its played at Simmonds Stadium which are usually low scoring affairs. Port should be getting confident now and looking at moving even further into the top 8. Port trail Collingwood and Richmond by 4 points on the ladder for 6th and 7th spot and trail Essendon by 8 points for 5th spot. If we break this down into more detail ....

Collingwoods remaining games;
@ Sydney (SCG)
@ Hawks (MCG Friday Night)
West Coast (MCG Friday Night)
North Melbourne

Richmonds remaining games;
Brisbane (MCG)
Carlton (MCG)
@GWS (Skoda Stadium)
@ Essendon (MCG)

Essendons remaining games;
West Coast (Etihad)
North Melbourne (Etihad)
@ Carlton (MCG)
Richmond (MCG)

So both Collingwood and Essendon have some danger games upon them although Collingwood seems to be shaping up at the right time of the season. Port have Geelong, Gold Coast, Freo and Carlton which they will need to win at least 2 of to stay in the top 8 with Carlton now 2 games behind on the ladder. This also leads me to think that Carlton are a strong lean against Western Bulldogs this week.

Sorry for the rant, just sharing my observations

[sando]

Sorry about the lack of NRL plays, have had problems logging in to SBR all w/e, so ended up giving up trying to post any more plays, you guys didn’t miss much anyway, made a grand total of 1 unit on the NRL, the quietest week in nearly 2 months. Would have been a better w/e, had the Cowboys m/l against Souths, so was pretty happy with myself but then dumped most of my NRL profits on the Wests Tigers, never should have bet on that game.
So I see a lot of philosophy going on in this thread at the moment. Rohan, XYZ, Cooper and others have all shared some great advice over the last month or so, the only thing I can think to add is that whilst everybody who wishes to make money in this game must strive towards achieving a calm mentality and emotion free decisions, it’s not necessarily all it’s cracked up to be.
I know this because my own journey has been a very long one, and I have been in deep and in some bad places mentally, and while I am confident those days are long behind me it most definitely is not all golden. As many of you have probably gathered I am a sports nut, always have been. Before my accident I used to play many sports, and I have always loved watching sports and debating them as well (especially NBA and AFL). You see this is the thing – these days when I lose it doesn’t really bother me, I just move on to the next event, however unfortunately and (for me) far more importantly, when I win I don’t really get any joy either. It’s all business now and my simple joy at watching a good sporting event is long gone. Even when my beloved Swans play I can’t just sit back and enjoy it. It’s hardwired in to me now, always analysing, always crunching numbers in my head (even when I don’t realise I’m doing it). Making extra money is great, but I have no doubt gambling interferes with the simple love of the game, whatever game that may be and I don’t know if it will ever come back for me personally. Like I said it’s all business now, and that’s not necessarily a good thing, unless money is your god.
If you really plan on existing in that very small % of guys that actually can show long term profits from this thing that we love to do, you must be prepared for other areas of your life to potentially suffer as a consequence. For me that childhood joy is long gone, but these are the cosequences of the path I have chosen.
Oh one more thing – MLB King – sorry mate, I was not ignoring you at all. Most of the time when I post in this thread, I just post and then leave without reading anything and then when I have some spare time I come back and go through the thread and read everything single comment, but sometimes it is a day or two after they were posted.

[trigga50]

Hey Sando, being a fellow South Aussie, what are your thoughts on West Adelaide tonight?