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To the noobies that were a few weeks ago suggesting that the series records without buying points would be basically the same (for backtesting purposes) as the posted series records with buying points – TAKE NOTE – two series over last couple days (Boston, Philly) were won with the points and lost without the points. This is added on top of the 3 or 4 series this year which had already been won with points and lost without. Buying the points makes a very significant difference to success rate! 5 series in the space of a few months lost w/out points and won with points means that if you were playing for 1 unit per series, w/ points you got +5 units from these 5 series, and w/out points you got -40 units from these 5 series, a differential of -45 units combined. That’s a big deal.
Conversely, not buying the points has only saved people ~12 units which they did not lose on the series that loses both with and without points..
Not telling people they should buy points, just pointing out that it makes a big difference to overall success rate, and it is certainly not something which can be ignored when considering system success rate.
Hey JM Disciple, you've been around the forum for a long time and always bring good vibes only here so kudos to you for that.. But you do tend to request some pretty big things from people on a whim (eg the graph), and also tend to post meaningless 'facts' or statistics which are often not thought through all that well before posting. I think you should just look at researching these things yourself a bit more before posting about them / asking other people to do them. Don't take it the wrong way, just my opinion and like I said you always bring good vibes, and I've got nothing against you at all. Just making a suggestion
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For those who are interested. Since we are at the half way point, I have tracked 4 betting methods for the current JM season. The 1-3-5, 7-5, B/C to win 3 units, and B/C to win 3 units (buy 3 points). Here are the results.
1-3-5 +53.88 units
7-5 +103.33 units
B/C to win 3 +40.08
B/C to win 3 (buy 3 points) +65.32
Notes and filters:
All results are based on closing odds at covers.com.
All methods that do not buy points use odds of -110 and are ATS.
The 7-5 method includes the +3.5 filter to the A bet for each series.
The B/C to win 3 (buy 3 points) assumes 3 points cost -170. (5dimes)
The results include all NBA teams on any 3 game road trip. (V1,V2,and V3)
Thanks
JustinComment -
Well, you guys seem to have that under control, perhaps I can start working on his next request.Comment -
What a shitty night 3 of 3 losses for chase -110.. Anyway Golden state wonComment -
Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 39-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +1.71 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 3 (-8.74 units)
(2/22/12):
#42 Boston (+8½) (B) - Loss
#43 Philadelphia (+4) (B) - Loss
#44 Washington (M/L) (A) - Loss
v1 Plays
(A) 26-18
(B) 6-11
(C) 4-5
(D) 3-2
V2 Plays
In production
Games for (2/23/12):
#42 Resumes (C) on 2/28/12
#43 Resumes (C) on 2/28/12
#44 Resumes (B) on 2/28/12
#45 Orlando @ Atlanta (+5) (A) (7:35 pm EST)
We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.Last edited by Wallco99; 02-23-12, 09:30 PM.Comment -
Atlanta is +3 most places nowComment -
JM Feb 22
V2 GOLDEN STATE +7.5 @ Phoenix (A) WIN
Results Per Version
Version 1
A: 12-5
B: 2-3
C: 3-0
Version 2
A: 6-2
B: 2-0
C: 0-0
Version 3
A: 23-14
B: 11-3
C: 2-1
DET 1/28-1/31
Totals
A: 41-21
B: 15-6
C: 5-1
The next JM Play is on Tuesday, February 28th. No Plays until thenComment -
The public is pounding away at ORL. ATL getting spanked last night and Johnson being out probably have more to do with it than confidence in the Magic.Comment -
You all had a real good laugh at my chart request I'm glad to know some of you are real douche bags! Obviously i been around this forum for a while now and have tried to back test and help out as much as possible.
You think if I had an excel sheet with all the data I wouldn't post the graph? Making the graph is pretty simple to do in excel and If i had all the info I would do that. I figure since you all are keeping track of all the records;I assume its on excel and not just how limit post it, then It would be pretty easy to highlight a column and make a graph. I would do it myself if I had all the W/L records over the season.
Thanks for being Douche bags
JMD
PS
2pts is most I can give and I know points do not mean much, but that is all i can give. For a simple graph to be posted shouldn't be too hard. Probably spent more time laughing about my post amusing yourselves, then it would to make and post the graph.
PPS
Didn't ask for anyone to back test anything with the chart. I figured It was already documented and a graph is pretty easy to post.
PPPS
Thanks Justin for your post! I'm glad some people in here are not total douche bags and take everything up the butt because they lack patience or maybe there mama did not hug them enough.Comment -
atlanta line is now +4, opened at +1,5Comment -
yeesh, speaking of taking everything up the butt....
I'm not going to involve myself in a petty argument, Wilba already said exactly how I feel about the situation in post #2418.
On another note, I'm going to be dumping some good time this weekend into more MLB testing. I'll keep everyone posted.Comment -
Not arguing at all. I just asked for a simple excel sheet to be posted. If you or anyone else does not feel like doing it then do not do it. i was just curious to see what a graph of JM NBA looks like. No need to bash someone for a simple question. Ok im done with this rant of mine.Comment -
Agree...To the noobies that were a few weeks ago suggesting that the series records without buying points would be basically the same (for backtesting purposes) as the posted series records with buying points – TAKE NOTE – two series over last couple days (Boston, Philly) were won with the points and lost without the points. This is added on top of the 3 or 4 series this year which had already been won with points and lost without. Buying the points makes a very significant difference to success rate! 5 series in the space of a few months lost w/out points and won with points means that if you were playing for 1 unit per series, w/ points you got +5 units from these 5 series, and w/out points you got -40 units from these 5 series, a differential of -45 units combined. That’s a big deal.
Conversely, not buying the points has only saved people ~12 units which they did not lose on the series that loses both with and without points..
Not telling people they should buy points, just pointing out that it makes a big difference to overall success rate, and it is certainly not something which can be ignored when considering system success rate.
Hey JM Disciple, you've been around the forum for a long time and always bring good vibes only here so kudos to you for that.. But you do tend to request some pretty big things from people on a whim (eg the graph), and also tend to post meaningless 'facts' or statistics which are often not thought through all that well before posting. I think you should just look at researching these things yourself a bit more before posting about them / asking other people to do them. Don't take it the wrong way, just my opinion and like I said you always bring good vibes, and I've got nothing against you at all. Just making a suggestion
Just didn't want to research some thing that people most likely already have data on. A simple no response or "i do not feel like posting personal data" would suffice.
Not trying to blow up this thread with meaningless garbage or an argument. Arguments don't put money in my pocket, so its kinda meaningless anyways. Thanks for the constructive criticism.
JMDComment -
Man, I am not doing so well ever since I started playing the JM system without buying the points.
Anyone else playing the system this way?Comment -
Last year, as a noob, I played it straight, buying the three points and seeing maybe one series where it would have made a difference. So this year, I decided I'd test how it went without doubling my risk for the extra 3 points (-110 to -200). So far, buying the points would have saved me significant money.
So what have I learned? That you can't try to "time the system" and guess when you'll need the three or not. The system works as a system and buying the points makes the system work as well as it does. Losses take longer to recover from but you'll have fewer of them.Comment -
Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 40-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +2.71 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 3 (-8.74 units)
(2/22/12):
#45 Atlanta (+5) (A) - Win
v1 Plays
(A) 27-18
(B) 6-11
(C) 4-5
(D) 3-2
V2 Plays
In production
All Star Break:
#42 Resumes (C) on 2/28/12
#43 Resumes (C) on 2/28/12
#44 Resumes (B) on 2/28/12Comment -
I have question .
What does mean 7/5 system ? and how play its ?
Please answer me .
Thanks all.Comment -
I have no idea how many times we discussed this in this forum, but our writing falls on death ears so to speak.
If a post is really long do not be afraid to read it. Usually some good statistically information in it; including exactly what your talking about. Probably discussed it 30 times in this thread. Im sure every 3 pages has your answer at least once.Comment -
If your not going to buy points you need to play 1-3-5 or even better yet 7/5, you can't play it straight. Last season was the exception not the rule.Comment -
Listen here JM, I read every single post that is made in here. I'm just trying to see who is out there that is playing the same way I am. Just because one person was back "3" pages ago doesn't mean they are now. Or there might be people who don't post that might because I asked a question that is revelant to them. This is a FORUM. Where we're allowed to communicate. Unless you, aka, The Forum Police, decide that other peoples questions arent worthy to be discussed. Maybe I should have just asked for 50 ridiculous requests from people instead and then you wouldn't have been so rude.Comment -
Yes it does really good, im up 33 units with my labby, thats a little bit less maybe than the 1-3-5 and 7/5 method but i do it to minimize the riskComment -
I may be rude, but your question has been answered several times through out the forum. If you read every post on this forum, then I have to wonder why are you still asking that question. I do not think I was very rude, but more straight forward with my answer to your question.
Should I post my graph question 10 times and see how nicely people respond? They already answered the question for me, so maybe I should post it 5 or 6 more times. You see the the reasoning behind me posting it 5 or 6 more times when I already got the answer? ... Dont think about that too long cause its pointless for me to keep asking the same question as you have after saying you read every post on the forum.
I understand your trying to help others, but as we tell all new comers to the forum, to read the entire forum and all your questions should be answered. I did not mean to disrespect you, but as stated several times in the forum and same way wallco, limit, and others respond to questions that have been asked several times, is to go back and read the forum.Comment -
You ever try a 3 or 4 strike labby with the JM system? It will be more profitable then a 2 strike labby.
2 strike labby = When you win cross off 2 #s and when you lose add 1 # to your line which only needs to win 34% of the time to show a profit, hence cross 2 add 1. (2:1)
3 strike: similar to 2 strike but cross 3 and add 1.
4 strike: cross 4 add 1.
The bigger the strike count the bigger the bankroll you needed because of the heavier lines, but you will definitely clear your lines a lot faster!
If you look at last years forum, icebet posted several spread sheets on these methods showing the profit margin given worse case scenario an eight game losing streak.
Hope this helps the newer labby players.
*I do not have a link to last years thread or post #. Just look for Icebets name to quickly skim the thread.Comment -
Yeah it will! The labby works very well the only problem with it is losing streaks and you will accumulate more losses because you aren't buying points. For example earlier this season the A bets had a terrible streak. If things get gloomy for a week or so you can easily end up with 8+ numbers on a line and the bet sizes being triple original size. You also have to factor in as I said the extra losses, there have been 3-4 losses that could have been avoided buying points.
I used to labby and still do depending on the system but I've learned that if its possible to turn good profit only playing "set" amounts (ie, 7 units on B and net 5 on C, regardless of whats going on that's what it is) then I would rather play it that way. People say labbying minimizes risk but if you get an inflated line you will find yourself a nervous wreck risking inflated numbers every day trying to clear as opposed to playing a set amount regardless of what's happening.Comment -
I'm sooooo confused!!!!!!!
I hate the ALL STAR BREAK!!!Comment
