John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

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  • thelimit0310
    SBR MVP
    • 01-24-11
    • 1233

    #1996
    "
    Comment
    • 1gamer
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 02-09-11
      • 723

      #1997
      Originally posted by thelimit0310
      How is that not good? Long term testing has shown that the B and C bets have a much higher winning percentage than A. How is weighting those bets more a bad thing? Like I've said many times already, I'm not going to try and convince you to play 7/5. I could care less what you do with your money. But if you want to play the most profitable strategy for JM, you can.
      I'm onboard with 7/5, you don't have to convince me of anything. I will be using 7/5 moving forward. Having said that, why can't you play it both ways? I'm waiting to hear a logical explanation, and all I'm hearing is: Play it your own way. I support 7/5. I think you've done great work Limit, Wallco, and Wilba.
      Comment
      • alexknyc
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 03-22-11
        • 861

        #1998
        Originally posted by 1gamer
        I'm onboard with 7/5, you don't have to convince me of anything. I will be using 7/5 moving forward. Having said that, why can't you play it both ways? I'm waiting to hear a logical explanation, and all I'm hearing is: Play it your own way. I support 7/5. I think you've done great work Limit, Wallco, and Wilba.
        You lose the A bet but not by enough to continue the series under the 7/5 rules, you're down a unit you didn't need to be.

        You lose the A bet before playing 7/5 and you'll be down a unit vs. those who don't play the A

        You lose the A bet and then play 8/6 to catch back up and your losses will be at least 3 units greater should a series lose.

        Where's the upside on the A bet? They barely win enough to break even at -170, never mind -200.
        Comment
        • 1gamer
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 02-09-11
          • 723

          #1999
          Originally posted by alexknyc
          You lose the A bet but not by enough to continue the series under the 7/5 rules, you're down a unit you didn't need to be. You lose the A bet before playing 7/5 and you'll be down a unit vs. those who don't play the A You lose the A bet and then play 8/6 to catch back up and your losses will be at least 3 units greater should a series lose. Where's the upside on the A bet? They barely win enough to break even at -170, never mind -200.
          Ok, the Lose the A bet and then play 8/6 to catch up makes sense, thank you for clearing that up. Then why not just play on (C) bets only like Kevin the Brit suggested?
          Comment
          • Wallco99
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 01-01-11
            • 7261

            #2000
            Originally posted by 1gamer
            I'm onboard with 7/5, you don't have to convince me of anything. I will be using 7/5 moving forward. Having said that, why can't you play it both ways? I'm waiting to hear a logical explanation, and all I'm hearing is: Play it your own way. I support 7/5. I think you've done great work Limit, Wallco, and Wilba.
            Because too many bets get by the B bet to make it profitable playing from A. You are so hell bent on this 29-20, you think this is all that determines success of the bets.
            Comment
            • alexknyc
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 03-22-11
              • 861

              #2001
              Originally posted by 1gamer
              Ok, the Lose the A bet and then play 8/6 to catch up makes sense, thank you for clearing that up. Then why not just play on (C) bets only like Kevin the Brit suggested?
              How does it make sense? That's NOT what I said. Please re-read what I wrote.
              Comment
              • 1gamer
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 02-09-11
                • 723

                #2002
                Originally posted by Wallco99
                Because too many bets get by the B bet to make it profitable playing from A. You are so hell bent on this 29-20, you think this is all that determines success of the bets.
                Originally posted by alexknyc

                How does it make sense? That's NOT what I said. Please re-read what I wrote.
                I completely understand 7/5 now. Thank you for taking the time to clear that up finally.
                Comment
                • COBRA31
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 01-23-12
                  • 61

                  #2003
                  Originally posted by thelimit0310
                  All based on Covers closing lines yup.

                  Can you share the backtest bet results for A,B,&C for all three versions.

                  Similar to the sheet provided in post #1661.

                  Would be much appreciated !
                  Comment
                  • Wallco99
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 01-01-11
                    • 7261

                    #2004
                    Did somebody order this???


                    Last edited by Wallco99; 02-12-12, 10:25 PM.
                    Comment
                    • 1gamer
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 02-09-11
                      • 723

                      #2005
                      Originally posted by Wallco99
                      Did somebody order this???
                      Comment
                      • stevex
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 05-02-10
                        • 5122

                        #2006
                        Wait....

                        Washington A bet cashes with an outright win...

                        Utah A bet up 6 at half....

                        Keep doing your "research" wallco. I'll keep making that money...
                        Comment
                        • stevex
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 05-02-10
                          • 5122

                          #2007
                          Cat bite your tongue?

                          Keep skipping those A bets to "make more money"

                          hahaha such a joke.
                          Comment
                          • Riceboi
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 10-03-11
                            • 857

                            #2008
                            Originally posted by stevex
                            Cat bite your tongue? Keep skipping those A bets to "make more money" hahaha such a joke.
                            why does it matter how anyone plays the JM system? To each their own man.
                            Comment
                            • Wallco99
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 01-01-11
                              • 7261

                              #2009
                              Originally posted by stevex
                              Cat bite your tongue?

                              Keep skipping those A bets to "make more money"

                              hahaha such a joke.
                              I don't know what the hell you're a "PRO" of, but it sure isn't math.

                              Let's see:

                              1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1

                              OR

                              7+7

                              Hmmmmm......I choose #2
                              Comment
                              • 1gamer
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 02-09-11
                                • 723

                                #2010
                                JM (A) 2 Team Parlay Washington/Utah 1 to win 2.64 WIN (System +38.28 Since Feb 4) (Open Series 0)
                                Last edited by 1gamer; 02-13-12, 12:58 AM.
                                Comment
                                • knugen
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-09-09
                                  • 2612

                                  #2011
                                  Cant just everybody just play the system they like, i doing labbylines to Every system cause i want to minimise the risk.. If people want play it 5/7, 7/5, 1-3-5, 8/6 or anyone else of the like 10 ways that been up here, youre welcome.. We are here for the same reason.. Winning money! BOL
                                  Comment
                                  • Wilba
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 10-29-10
                                    • 702

                                    #2012
                                    Originally posted by 1gamer
                                    Ok, the Lose the A bet and then play 8/6 to catch up makes sense, thank you for clearing that up. Then why not just play on (C) bets only like Kevin the Brit suggested?
                                    The reason is very simple. Look up the long term stats I provided in last year's thread - playing every A bet all time makes you a LOSS. Granted, a small loss, but still a loss. Playing every B and C bet all time makes you a good profit. That's why you do skip the As and do not skip the B or C bets.

                                    Bottom line - whether they are part of a chase series or not, a losing bet (long term, statistically) is STILL A LOSING BET, and playing every one all time will leave your bankroll in the -ve from playing that bet type.

                                    similarly, whether they are part of a chase series or not, a winning bet (long term, statistically) is STILL A WINNING BET, and playing every one all time will leave your bankroll in the +ve from playing that bet type.

                                    So the reasons are very simple; you don't play losing bets as they cost you money, and you do play winning expected outcome bets as they do make you money.

                                    Hope this helps. I assure you that the stats are well tested back to 10 years or beyond and it has been proven beyond a shadow of doubt that these are facts.

                                    People who don't get the whole skipping As thing - please take 30 seconds to read this and if you still don't get it, you never will. Let's move on and stop talking about all this now please! Everyone play it however suits you best, no need to try to convince people that one way is better than another. If they don't want to hear it, they won't!
                                    Comment
                                    • Wilba
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 10-29-10
                                      • 702

                                      #2013
                                      c'mon Stevex man, if you don't see the sense in skipping As and if you are so short sighted that you think winning 4 in a row makes them profitable then good for you. Play it however you want no need to be a massive douche bag about it and try to start shit.

                                      The end of a year and the end of a decade are the only things that matter in sports betting, so if we are still wrong in 1-2 years time feel free to come and rub all our noses in it then.
                                      Comment
                                      • Wallco99
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 01-01-11
                                        • 7261

                                        #2014
                                        Wallco NBA Chase 110
                                        2011-12 System to date: 33-2 (fin. series)
                                        System profit/loss: -4.29 units (fin. series)
                                        Current open series: 2 (-4.51 units)

                                        v1 Plays
                                        (A) 25-12
                                        (B) 3-8
                                        (C) 3-4
                                        (D) 2-2

                                        V2 Plays
                                        In production


                                        Games for (2/13/12):
                                        #36 Resumes (C) on 2/15/12
                                        #37 Utah @ New Orleans (+3½) (B) (8:05 pm EST)



                                        We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.
                                        Comment
                                        • thelimit0310
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-24-11
                                          • 1233

                                          #2015
                                          JM Feb 12

                                          V3 UTAH +9 @ Memphis (A) WIN
                                          V2 WASHINGTON +9 @ Detroit (A) WIN

                                          RESULTS PER VERSION

                                          Version 1
                                          A: 9-5
                                          B: 2-3
                                          C: 3-0

                                          Version 2
                                          A: 4-2
                                          B: 2-0
                                          C: 0-0

                                          Version 3
                                          A: 20-13
                                          B: 10-3
                                          C: 2-1
                                          DET 1/28-1/31

                                          Totals
                                          A: 33-20
                                          B: 14-6
                                          C: 5-1

                                          JM Feb 13

                                          No Plays
                                          Comment
                                          • thelimit0310
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-24-11
                                            • 1233

                                            #2016
                                            Originally posted by knugen
                                            Cant just everybody just play the system they like, i doing labbylines to Every system cause i want to minimise the risk.. If people want play it 5/7, 7/5, 1-3-5, 8/6 or anyone else of the like 10 ways that been up here, youre welcome.. We are here for the same reason.. Winning money! BOL
                                            Knugen How has the labby performed for you so far and how do you play it? I tested a labby earlier this season, A B and C all on the same 1 line labby. I ran it through the first few weeks of this seasons plays and it got a little heavy before I stopped. Just wondering has it worked out for you so far and how many lines you use?
                                            Comment
                                            • jcygts6
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 04-05-09
                                              • 3316

                                              #2017
                                              Lets go hornets
                                              DO WORK + KROW OD
                                              do work! do work! do work! do work!
                                              od krow! od krow! od krow! od krow!
                                              Comment
                                              • knugen
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-09-09
                                                • 2612

                                                #2018
                                                Originally posted by thelimit0310
                                                Knugen How has the labby performed for you so far and how do you play it? I tested a labby earlier this season, A B and C all on the same 1 line labby. I ran it through the first few weeks of this seasons plays and it got a little heavy before I stopped. Just wondering has it worked out for you so far and how many lines you use?
                                                i play one basic line, when its 2 plays some day i start a new thread for that play, if that game hit i save that line til next time i have 2 plays, works very well actually, i dont buy point so iit doesnt matter if my lines get a bit long sooner or later i clear them... i had a line with SBP last week it was 10 numbers but i still only bet like 5% om my roll on next bet... im up 30 units i think with jm
                                                Comment
                                                • bisturis
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 04-03-11
                                                  • 141

                                                  #2019
                                                  Originally posted by knugen
                                                  i play one basic line, when its 2 plays some day i start a new thread for that play, if that game hit i save that line til next time i have 2 plays, works very well actually, i dont buy point so iit doesnt matter if my lines get a bit long sooner or later i clear them... i had a line with SBP last week it was 10 numbers but i still only bet like 5% om my roll on next bet... im up 30 units i think with jm
                                                  Do you take the PS when the team is the favorite or do you take the ML?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Nino7
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 07-11-09
                                                    • 798

                                                    #2020
                                                    i think he plays them all at -110
                                                    Comment
                                                    • knugen
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-09-09
                                                      • 2612

                                                      #2021
                                                      Yes i play all games at -110 and it works really good for me..
                                                      Comment
                                                      • bisturis
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 04-03-11
                                                        • 141

                                                        #2022
                                                        Thanks knugen and Nino. I am currently trying to figure out the best labby method too but sometimes the amounts are extremely high. Maybe I will try playing all games at -110 also.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Valand
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 05-25-11
                                                          • 238

                                                          #2023
                                                          Is 7/5 only fore JM plays or could it work on wallcos plays aswell? I'v been reading but haven't found anything about that. Hornets how many games have the lost now in a row seems like som kind of record.


                                                          If it's 6+ with Jm and the bougth 3 points of them and they loose by 4 points it will count as a B play fore 7/5?


                                                          Go hornets
                                                          Comment
                                                          • J.M. Disciple
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 11-16-10
                                                            • 5143

                                                            #2024
                                                            yES, YOU CAN play the A bets if you wish. I would suggest labbying all A bets to make a profit no matter if its at -170 or -110 the end result will be in the positive with the labby. However, if you do a chase long term loser with the chase on the A bets!

                                                            A bets = labby time!

                                                            B / C = 7/5 method.

                                                            YOur welcome now shut up about it please.

                                                            JMD
                                                            Comment
                                                            • bisturis
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 04-03-11
                                                              • 141

                                                              #2025
                                                              JMD, we not allowed to ask questions to each other? I was just inquiring about knugens labby method since I do not feel I can stomach the 7/5 method at this time. I wish I could cause I think it's brilliant though. But sorry if my labby question annoyed you.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Maxi_EV
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 05-11-10
                                                                • 535

                                                                #2026
                                                                thelimt0310

                                                                You got my mail regarding the record?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Wallco99
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 01-01-11
                                                                  • 7261

                                                                  #2027
                                                                  Originally posted by Valand
                                                                  Is 7/5 only fore JM plays or could it work on wallcos plays aswell? I'v been reading but haven't found anything about that. Hornets how many games have the lost now in a row seems like som kind of record.


                                                                  If it's 6+ with Jm and the bougth 3 points of them and they loose by 4 points it will count as a B play fore 7/5?


                                                                  Go hornets
                                                                  Not on my plays yet. I am working on a couple angles for Chase 110, but I can't confirm anything until I have found a way to remove all M/L plays from this system, and set up a new bet structure for all -110 games. The A bets have been very strong in Chase 110, so I am trying to find a way to maximize their profit. For now, it's 1 lame unit at a time. Also, lose only has one "o".

                                                                  For description of 7/5 bet strategy:
                                                                  Whatever the spread is, add 3.5 points. If they still don't cover, it is a JM B bet for 7/5.

                                                                  Example: Miami (-14) vs. Cleveland

                                                                  If the play was Cleveland, add 3.5 + 14 = 17.5. So if Cleveland loses by 18 or more points on the A bet, it would go to an official 7/5 B bet.

                                                                  If the play was Miami, add -14 + 3.5 = -10.5. If Miami wins by 11 or more, there would be no B bet, however, if they win by 10 or less, or lose the game, the 7/5 B bet would be official.

                                                                  This method has tested the best, but I still only play it with the 3 point rule, not the 3.5.
                                                                  Last edited by Wallco99; 02-13-12, 01:54 PM.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • thelimit0310
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-24-11
                                                                    • 1233

                                                                    #2028
                                                                    Valand It currently only works for JM, Wallco is testing it with his system and will let us know when he's finished.

                                                                    JMD Have you tested this at all? I wouldn't give advice that you aren't sure about. Remember a 7/5 loss is 22% if your bank. If the labby gets long and you hit a loss or two your advice could kill people's rolls.

                                                                    Maxi_EV I will message you with what you asked on the forum. In the future please send me a message over the forum instead of my email. Thanks!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Wallco99
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 01-01-11
                                                                      • 7261

                                                                      #2029
                                                                      Originally posted by bisturis
                                                                      JMD, we not allowed to ask questions to each other? I was just inquiring about knugens labby method since I do not feel I can stomach the 7/5 method at this time. I wish I could cause I think it's brilliant though. But sorry if my labby question annoyed you.
                                                                      Yes, you may ask. I don't know what propted that, the A bet argument was over last night. And this assumption that labbys are 100% foolproof and win no matter what you do is a crock of crap. All systems have risk, labbys may have slightly less risk, but that comes with one drawback, less profit.
                                                                      Last edited by Wallco99; 02-13-12, 02:51 PM.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Wallco99
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 01-01-11
                                                                        • 7261

                                                                        #2030
                                                                        Not to be picky, but can people double check their posts, before hitting "post quick reply", for grammar, punctuation, and capitalization. It's really getting sloppy in here!
                                                                        Comment
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