John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[thelimit0310]

Okay I went back into last years thread, Krzychu did NOT use the ML filter. All plays were recorded on the spread with 3 points bought. I am going to change the record back once again to reflect this to stay consistent. This makes Chicago a C bet. The dispute regarding the record is settled, I won't change it back. It will be recorded as it was last season. If there are any series losses that would have won if ML was taken, I will note it in the loss.

edit: record post has been changed. Chicago is now an official C bet

[Win89]

Sounds good to me especially if it'll be noted a series won on ML.

[xgame]

Okay I went back into last years thread, Krzychu did NOT use the ML filter. All plays were recorded on the spread with 3 points bought. I am going to change the record back once again to reflect this to stay consistent. This makes Chicago a C bet. The dispute regarding the record is settled, I won't change it back. It will be recorded as it was last season. If there are any series losses that would have won if ML was taken, I will note it in the loss.

edit: record post has been changed. Chicago is now an official C bet

that was good no ML buy here. appreciate thelimit0310

[Win89]

A couple of you guys mentioned earlier in the thread to only bet on the [B] and [C] bets and at first it sounded good because of this shortened season and the lower level of risk you would be taking but after looking at the numbers it seems that method season after season is nothing short of golden. Will many of you be playing that way?

Thanks to everyone who posted previous season backtests.

[J.M. Disciple]

A couple of you guys mentioned earlier in the thread to only bet on the [b] and [C] bets and at first it sounded good because of this shortened season and the lower level of risk you would be taking but after looking at the numbers it seems that method season after season is nothing short of golden. Will many of you be playing that way?

Thanks to everyone who posted previous season backtests.

This is correct if you are betting to win 3 units on B and chasing on C. If you only betting to win 1 unit, then you should be betting A B and C. Betting to win 3 units on B and C will lessen the variance and some seasons show a little more profit.

If you are doing a labby, then I do not think it will matter.

[Wallco99]

Okay I went back into last years thread, Krzychu did NOT use the ML filter. All plays were recorded on the spread with 3 points bought. I am going to change the record back once again to reflect this to stay consistent. This makes Chicago a C bet. The dispute regarding the record is settled, I won't change it back. It will be recorded as it was last season. If there are any series losses that would have won if ML was taken, I will note it in the loss.

edit: record post has been changed. Chicago is now an official C bet

Yes, I was going to say the same thing. I apologize for my error, he told me how he did it and I was mistaken. Once again, sorry.

[Wallco99]

Again please

Sorry, just got in. I believe Kevin already answered.

[Maxi_EV]

Thanks guys!

[Kev the Brit]

Okay I went back into last years thread, Krzychu did NOT use the ML filter. All plays were recorded on the spread with 3 points bought. I am going to change the record back once again to reflect this to stay consistent. This makes Chicago a C bet. The dispute regarding the record is settled, I won't change it back. It will be recorded as it was last season. If there are any series losses that would have won if ML was taken, I will note it in the loss. edit: record post has been changed. Chicago is now an official C bet

Well, I'm glad you're going to record the series losses that woud have been avoided with the ML filter. Personally, I think the ML bet is a premium worth paying. As we know, the filter was introduced by JM only to make his stats look good in the market place. However, we don't really know historically how many needless B and C bets have been placed after SU wins at the A and B bet stages. Its very probable that the filter might have obviated quite a few bets. The simple fact is that the ML bet only needs to work once in 20 series to pay for itself. It could have already done the job for the Bulls on Christmas Day....

I'm a B and C Bet player, so I didn't play the ML or the spread on the Bulls on Sunday and I then decided that the series was won at the A Bet stage. The Bulls are no longer in my focus. We know that a lost ML bet at the A Bet stage will compound a lot of cash later in the series, which is why a B and C only Bettor can be reaonably confident that a ML B or C Bet is not going to be so high.

[ChiLLx]

Well, I'm glad you're going to record the series losses that woud have been avoided with the ML filter. Personally, I think the ML bet is a premium worth paying. As we know, the filter was introduced by JM only to make his stats look good in the market place. However, we don't really know historically how many needless B and C bets have been placed after SU wins at the A and B bet stages. Its very probable that the filter might have obviated quite a few bets. The simple fact is that the ML bet only needs to work once in 20 series to pay for itself. It could have already done the job for the Bulls on Christmas Day....

I'm a B and C Bet player, so I didn't play the ML or the spread on the Bulls on Sunday and I then decided that the series was won at the A Bet stage. The Bulls are no longer in my focus. We know that a lost ML bet at the A Bet stage will compound a lot of cash later in the series, which is why a B and C only Bettor can be reaonably confident that a ML B or C Bet is not going to be so high.

I think if it makes sense to buy the ML, then why not do it? For example I got the Bulls ML at -165 which is actually cheaper than buying the 3 points and what do you know it won. Obviously not all of the ML games are going to be that cheap but I don't see the need to be so rigid if there's a good ML opportunity.

[ChiLLx]

Also if anyone can post or PM how they use labby for JM, for example what do you do with your 3 lines for each game once you clear one, just start a new one at the bottom and shift them up?

G1: 25-25-25-25
G2: 25-25-25-25
G3: 25-25-25-25

Not trying to derail the thread but there's no plays tonight.

[thelimit0310]

I guess you can shift them up most people just start a new line in its place.

[J.M. Disciple]

Why do you need 3 lines when there is only 1 or 2 bets a day usually? Just use 1 line and play A B and C on the same line. Also use single line averaging. I am keeping a running labby going through out the season on this thread.

Just using 1 line and adding a new line if i do not have enough #s on my line to cover the bets for the day.

--JMD

[J.M. Disciple]

JM NBA road System
Since 12/25/2011
Add 1 unit to the line if its cleared buying 3 points
Add 1 unit to the line for each new series
Unit size $10
Record:2-2 [ATS]
Series record 2-0 (1 pending)
Profit: -$2.05
Units in play: 3.2
Total Series: 3 (1Pending)


Labby Line
$11.03 / $11.03 +1 unit ($10) for starting a new series.

New Line: $16.03 / $16.03
*An (A) bet win on the Knicks on the 28th will bring us up +3.2 units with Bulls series pending.

12/28/2011 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 719 New York Knicks* -3 -110 vs Golden State Warriors
Risking $35.27 To Win $32.06

Upcoming bets:
12/28/11 NYK [A] vs GSW
12/29/11 Chicago Bulls [C] vs Sac
12/29/11 NJN [A] vs ORL

*I added a unit to the line for a new series starting. This will allow us to wager at -110 and keep up with the # of units chase players are making.

Good luck everyone on the Knicks.

[Bugs Bunny]

Well, I'm glad you're going to record the series losses that woud have been avoided with the ML filter. Personally, I think the ML bet is a premium worth paying. As we know, the filter was introduced by JM only to make his stats look good in the market place. However, we don't really know historically how many needless B and C bets have been placed after SU wins at the A and B bet stages. Its very probable that the filter might have obviated quite a few bets. The simple fact is that the ML bet only needs to work once in 20 series to pay for itself. It could have already done the job for the Bulls on Christmas Day....

I'm a B and C Bet player, so I didn't play the ML or the spread on the Bulls on Sunday and I then decided that the series was won at the A Bet stage. The Bulls are no longer in my focus. We know that a lost ML bet at the A Bet stage will compound a lot of cash later in the series, which is why a B and C only Bettor can be reaonably confident that a ML B or C Bet is not going to be so high.

Spot on, mate.

I only bet big on B and C
At the same time, I do a labby on all bet A's

Very profitable!

[J.M. Disciple]

Spot on, mate.

I only bet big on B and C
At the same time, I do a labby on all bet A's

Very profitable!

I like your style

[thelimit0310]

Spot on, mate.

I only bet big on B and C
At the same time, I do a labby on all bet A's

Very profitable!

Have you gone back to see if the profit is consistent? I labby all 3 plays but I may go harder on B and C if your method works in the long run!

[thelimit0310]

December 28

V1 NY KNICKS -2 @ Golden State (A)

NOTE: All plays posted include 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

[alexknyc]

December 28

V1 NY KNICKS -2 @ Golden State (A)

NOTE: All plays posted include 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

When I went to 5Dimes, both -2 and ML were -200. At that point, it seems silly not to take the ML

[ChiLLx]

When I went to 5Dimes, both -2 and ML were -200. At that point, it seems silly not to take the ML

This is similar to the comment I made above. I got the Bulls ML at -165 on 5dimes early and there was no reason not to take in my mind when buying points would have been -200. It just seems like when it makes sense you should do it.

[thelimit0310]

My personal book has buying 3 points at -188 and the ML at -215. Just because you can get it cheaper doesn't mean everyone can. Thus, the record will be with 3 points bought, and ML will never be taken but will be noted if losses occur that could have been avoided using ML.

[Wallco99]

My personal book has buying 3 points at -188 and the ML at -215. Just because you can get it cheaper doesn't mean everyone can. Thus, the record will be with 3 points bought, and ML will never be taken but will be noted if losses occur that could have been avoided using ML.

My book is -170 for three points. You guys are getting ripped.

[thelimit0310]

My book is -170 for three points. You guys are getting ripped.

Many books offer that, like BetUS. My book is actually -108 for the base spread, which is what I play, but has larger increments in juice per point bought.

[JW Cash]

Really...the best option is Not buy points and initiate a labby with a low risk tolerance methodology..............


Use the compounding principle when you feel comfortable............................. ......

[Win89]

Question for everyone playing B and C bets only. Are you playing in accordance with the ML filter or the 3 points. In the case of the Bulls since they won ML they'd be out the picture for a B but if your going by points you were on B and now pending C. I don't think it'll make a big difference in the end but there's definitely a chance a play wins ML and fails to cover the remaing games.

[UCcats]

My book has the bulls game tomorrow listed at -8. Would it be smart to bet now ir wait till tomorrow

[stevex]

It's going to be a good year boys and girls, as usual. Lets get that A bet money tonight with the Knicks!

[ajlaw1228]

Hi all, this is my first time posting on this site. I have been capping the NBA for over 15 years and I hope to bring some insight. Just out of curiosity do all books allow you to buy 3 points, because mine does not. It only goes up to 2.

[stevex]

Some do, some don't you just have to do your research. If you feel more comfortable buying 3 points instead of just 2 then by all means find a book that allows 3, but you'd be limiting your outs.

[thelimit0310]

Really...the best option is Not buy points and initiate a labby with a low risk tolerance methodology..............


Use the compounding principle when you feel comfortable............................. ......

JW How many lines you running? 2?

[Bugs Bunny]

Have you gone back to see if the profit is consistent? I labby all 3 plays but I may go harder on B and C if your method works in the long run!

No I'm afraid I didn't do a backtest. But i've been doing it for the past 1.5 seasons and you can work out from the past record that it should be ok.

Good luck all

[juice050]

as a knicks fan im disgusted

[ChiLLx]

as a knicks fan im disgusted

I'm a Bulls fan and the Warriors did the same to CHI the other night. They're a tough team this year.

[juice050]

I'm a Bulls fan and the Warriors did the same to CHI the other night. They're a tough team this year.

agree both our teams shouldve been able to beat gs, but mark jackson has brung a good defense mind set to warriors. hopefully knicks can cover b bet vs la.

[J.M. Disciple]

JM NBA road System
Since 12/25/2011
Add 1 unit to the line for each new series
Unit size $10
Record:2-3 [ATS]
Series record 2-0
Profit: -$37.32
Units in play: 7.6
Total Series: 5

Labby Line: $16.03 / $16.03 / (-35.27) +$10 (new series starting)
New Line: $25.79 / $25.79 / $25.79 (averaged)

12/28/2011 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 719 New York Knicks* -3 -110 vs Golden State Warriors
Risking $35.27 To Win $32.06 -- Loss

Upcoming bets:
12/29/11 Chicago Bulls [C] vs Sac betting to clear 2 #s since its a C
12/29/11 NJN [A] vs ORL betting to clear 1 #

12/29/2011 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 501 New Jersey Nets* +11½ -110 vs Orlando Magic
Risking $28.37 To Win $25.79
12/29/2011 10:05 PM NBA Basketball 509 Chicago Bulls* -7½ -110 vs Sacramento Kings
Risking $56.74 To Win $51.58

***These two wins will clear the line and put us up 4 units on the season. ***