LTA's NBA Plays

[mikea33]

Thanks LTA
Woke up this morning. Saw it was APRIL 1st.
No more bad-breaks March. Its a new month, new day, new play. Every playin here is a +ev play, and if you disagreee sorry but you are retarted. We had 50+ pts cushion goinh into the 4th...if you could skip to the 4th quarter (which to me, is essentially where winners and losers are cashed) and bet on under 50 or so pts in the quarter at -110 odds....im sure im LTA woupd agree, you would be making a +ev bet on it. That is really the way we've been losing. Doing what we need to fo throughout and losibg it on uncharcteristic things (chalmers 3 and that scoring explosion comes to mind)

[Dmil]

No...he said the opposite. His comment was that we do the right thing by not chasing.

LTA, I've post on your tread that April would be a better month for you so I'm not a hater, but your are clearly chasing and steaming. You are a good guy and great capper. My only constructive criticism of you is that you rarely take a day or two off, Especially after recent bad beats. That 8 play card two weeks showed lack of focus and chasing. That like trying to break the casino in one day. Most of the degenerates on this thread that always asks for your picks and opinions lack money management skills that's why there always crying. Continue with the grind and success

[Love The Action]

LTA, I've post on your tread that April would be a better month for you so I'm not a hater, but your are clearly chasing and steaming. You are a good guy and great capper. My only constructive criticism of you is that you rarely take a day or two off, Especially after recent bad beats. That 8 play card two weeks showed lack of focus and chasing. That like trying to break the casino in one day. Most of the degenerates on this thread that always asks for your picks and opinions lack money management skills that's why there always crying. Continue with the grind and success

I highly disagree, but you are entitled to your opinion. I don't think of it as "hate" so don't worry about it.

That 8 play card was based purely on the value provided on that day. Plus, if you remember, if it was not for a 1/2 point loss and a push, I would have ended up 5-3 on that day. Instead, I was 3-4. Those plays were all based on value projected by my model and were all highly vetted just like any other play made this season. I had an edge on all of those plays, so I played them. I am a firm believer that you should play every game where you have an edge, which is an appropriate transition to you other point about taking days off.

If I feel I have an edge, I'm going to make a play. I don't let bad beats carry over from day to day. Whatever happens from day to day -- whether a big win or big loss -- is forgotten and I move onto the next day. I made the decision a long time ago that you have to have a short memory in this business or you will drive yourself crazy. You can't let yourself get frustrated about bad beats for more than a few hours. As soon as the sun comes up the next day, then you just have to forget about it and think about the possibilities the new day has to offer.

Why would I take a day off for no reason? If I think I have an edge, I am going to make a play. If I don't have an edge, I will pass. Unlike degenerates that do not approach this as a business, I don't NEED to have action every day. However, I'm not going to pass up a +EV opportunity just because of a bad beat on the previous day. That would be unprofessional and would end up costing me money in the long run. As long as I follow my process and put the same amount of work into each play that I make, I have no problem with making 10 plays in one day. It just depends on when you have an edge and on that particular day I felt I had a strong edge on each of those 8 plays.

The true pros have the discipline to block bad beats out and move on. Discipline is the key to this business and that is the key to my long term success and winning track record. If you think that an 8 play card showed "lack of focus" and "chasing", that's your opinion. However, you would be wrong in such thinking. Good luck today!

[Love The Action]

Really like this Bulls/OKC under, but having a hard reconciling taking this at 192.5 or worse when it opened at 194. I was hoping it was going to go back up as my model has 190.

[unitedlad]

Really like this Bulls/OKC under, but having a hard reconciling taking this at 192.5 or worse when it opened at 194. I was hoping it was going to go back up as my model has 190.

Just to give you an idea of the selection of numbers all of us based in the UK have, I can get 190.5 and 193 in the Bulls/OKC game. Considering the over on this one. Thunder have really been lighting it up at home this season.

[mikea33]

I think late steam will hit by tip on the over. Any public stats to back up that theory? Just seems like the public sees two marquee teams and screams over.

[mikea33]

I have a strong lean to the under as well.
I know a lot of coach Thib and he will not try and get this game over 200 for the best chance to win. There gonna need to grind every possesion get good shots and slow down the game for Thunder. They need to keep it in reach, especially at a hostile envirement. I dont see him letting this turn a trackmeet

[Love The Action]

Just to give you an idea of the selection of numbers all of us based in the UK have, I can get 190.5 and 193 in the Bulls/OKC game. Considering the over on this one. Thunder have really been lighting it up at home this season.

It's great to have those options

If Rose was playing, I would play the under for sure because of his tendency to slow the pace. However, with Watson and Lucas, I'm hesitating just a bit because they do like to run. Nevertheless, the only way the Bulls win this is game is by slowing the pace and winning with defense. Thibs knows they cannot let this game get into a shootout because they don't have the offensive firepower to beat a team like OKC without Rose. Let's face it, that game against the Heat at home was unusual because Lucas was shooting out of his mind. He's unlikely to play that well today. I think OKC has the edge on the side as well. However, I will not play this at -5 or more because if the Bulls always try 100% and they have enough to keep it close.

I think this play comes down to who do you think can control the pace. OKC will do its best to keep this a fast-paced game. If the Bulls get some easy transition points off careless OKC turnovers, that will help the over. This is why I have not made a play yet. The question is if you think they can slow OKC down on defense. If you think the Bulls can play lock-down D and keep it close with a game-plan to hold the ball until late in the shot clock via ball movement, then the under is the play. If you think OKC is going to win easily, then the over seems more likely. I think there is a strong correlation to each in this game. GL

[mikea33]

Its a lot of points at 194 or so if we can end up getting it there. 103-90 type of game still cashes since its a high total. I think there 2 elite teams and it could play out similar to that lakers/thunder game. Im not saying the bulls are similar to the lakers in there style of play, but in this game without Rose thats their best way of attack. I have a feeling OKC is going to put the clamps on defensively and turn this into a halfcourt type of game. No reasoning besides just my situational aspects of the game, but everything you are saying is 100% why im shying away.

EDIT: and that Lakers game went over because westbrook went off in the 2H. I dont think the Bulls will dip. There team defense even without rose looked crazy good last couple weeks.

[meader99]

That Lakers game went under.

[mikea33]

With a 200 total

[meader99]

Down to 192. Gun to my head I would take the over because it was already shown that the Bulls play a little faster with Watson/Lucas. I'm not playing it either way at 6.5 or 192.

[CheeseHead]

Not that anyone probably cares but I never did make it to the Bucks game last night. My buddy's car that we took down to the game shut off on us about half-way there, alternator took a shit. I made a small play on Bucks -2.5 just for entertainment purposes so when I got to the game I could cheer more for them to win...ended up missing the game completely and missed out on the Grizzlies +3 winner from LTA.

All I can say is...thank god March is over. What a b#tch it was to me..

[Love The Action]

NBA Regular Season 2011-2012 4/1/2012

Play #1

Celtics/Heat under (186.5) 1.5x (Locked)

I am going to keep this as a 1.5x play because Crawford and Bavetta are the refs and are two unpredictable to trust. However, this is a game I fully expect to stay under the posted total. In the game on Christmas Day, both teams shot over 50% from the field and over 60% from beyond the arc in a game that soared over the posted total of 187. Despite all that scoring, the books opened this game at 186.5 a 1/2 point lower than that first game. I think they expect a lower scoring game and I have to agree. My model has this game set at 182 which is too much value to pass up despite getting burned by some Heat unders this week. Defensively, we have an even stronger defensive matchup than we did earlier in the week with the Heat and Mavs. I won't go through all the numbers, but we'll just say that both teams are defensive elite teams ranking in the top 5 of most statistically significant categories. Offensively, the Heat are set up perfectly for a regression after two solid offensive performances, especially when you consider that Boston will be waiting for them with some defensive adjustments from the previous game. This is a grudge match type game that will take shape with defensive intensity of the playoffs. In this series, it has been rare to see these two teams have two high scoring games in a row and I cannot imagine that both teams shoot 60% from beyond the arc or 50% from the field again today. I have this game set at 182 giving us 4 full points of value which is just too much to pass up. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

ML Parlay

Thunder ML (-230)/Magic ML (-210) Risk 1x to win 1.1x (Locked)

I made this play about 45 minutes ago, but am just able to post it now so the Thunder odds have gone up to about -250. However, that is still acceptable for this play. This will be our second moneyline parlay of the season after we cashed on the first day of the season with the Bulls/Heat play. I know this could be deemed a "square" play, but both my model and situational factors project both teams to win these games and probably cover -5ish spreads. The OKC line got away from me and there's no way I play -6, however, I expect the Thunder to have too much firepower in this game at home with the Bullls playing without Rose. Chicago has the advantage defensively, but OKC has been improving all year and are currently ranked 11th in DEFF. Without Rose, the Bulls will have a difficult time coming up with consistent scoring options because we all know Boozer likes to wilt in "big" games. Even though the Bulls will give maximum effort -- which is good enough even without Rose to beat 90% of the teams in the NBA -- it will not be enough against the elite teams such as OKC. I do not think Rip's return will much impact today and you can only get by so long without your superstar before you start to lose some games. This is a game I fully expect the Bulls to lose but they can probably keep too close to consider playing a spread of -5.5 or more. That is why I think the moneyline parlay is the better option. In the other game, we have two of the more inconsistent playoff-caliber teams in the NBA. However, as long as Howard plays, and every report out says he will, I think Orlando should win this game and probably cover the -5. My model has Orlando favored at -6 and I would not be surprised to see that type of victory. Both teams' success is based highly on the 3 point shot and Orlando has the decided advantage on both ends of the court from behind the arc. Orlando's perimeter defense from beyond the arc is ranked top 10 in O3P% and O3pt EFG%, while Denver is ranked dead last in both. In addition, Orlando is ranked in the top 3 of 3P% and 3pt EFG%, while Denver is bottom 1/3 of the league. I expect Orlando to light it up from 3 point land in this game. However, they will also dominate the paint with Howard. I know that the reports say he has a bad back and missed practice, but he has not missed a game all season and I do not expect that streak to end tonight. Orlando has lost two games and needs to get back in the win column and Howard should put up some huge numbers against Denver's thin front court. I don't play many moneyline parlays, but I think both these teams win and probably cover and therefore I a going to parlay them on the moneyline for 1x. Good luck.

[mikea33]

wowwwww cheesehead that is a horrible expierience. sorry to hear bout that.

[meader99]

Not that anyone probably cares but I never did make it to the Bucks game last night. My buddy's car that we took down to the game shut off on us about half-way there, alternator took a shit. I made a small play on Bucks -2.5 just for entertainment purposes so when I got to the game I could cheer more for them to win...ended up missing the game completely and missed out on the Grizzlies +3 winner from LTA.

All I can say is...thank god March is over. What a b#tch it was to me..

That sucks brother. Double barrel action there.

[mikea33]

thanks lta

[mikea33]

Are you still looking at the total in the OKC game? Or just a lean that has passed?

[burchfield]

Bulls score alot more without Rose.

[EricZ116]

Celtics/Heat back up to 186 at 5dimes for those who missed the better numbers earlier.

[Love The Action]

Lots of Bulls fans in OKC today. http://twitter.com/#!/DarnellMayberr...948160/photo/1

Just another illustration of why Bulls fans are some of the best in the league and so much better than those of the Heat for example

[CheeseHead]

wowwwww cheesehead that is a horrible expierience. sorry to hear bout that.

Yeah, pretty shitty experience. Haven't been to an NBA game in probably close to 10 years and then that has to happen when I'm on the way to one. April is a new month and hopefully will bring better luck to all of us though.

[mikea33]

Bulls fans are great. I have had season tix for celtics for years, saw some of the most exciting games vs. the bulls. That series few years back was legendary. I hope we meet again in the playoffs. (Better shot than the Heat)

Also, i am going to the celtics game today. I was hoping theyd be bigger underdogs i dont know if theres any value in taking them +155 as an action play

[Premierr23]

Hey LTA are you from the Chicago area?

[Love The Action]

I'm out for the day. I will post any other plays from my phone. Good luck everyone.

[dallasspartan]

Thanks, LTA...Here we go!

[Les_Nuts]

Howard is a true game time decision according to rotoworld

[TC Woods]

Howard is a true game time decision according to rotoworld

Benjamin Hochman <s>@</s>nuggetsnews

• Close

Huge news: Dwight Howard not playing tonight vs <s>#</s>Nuggets (back injury)

• 3 Retweets
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[coachkap]

what's happening in the MAGIC/NUGGETS game? line taken down and now the MAGIC are laying 3.5 points...Is Howard out?

[MarkTX]

Yup Howard out

[unitedlad]

OK, we need 50 or less points in the 4th quarter. Definitely going in favour of the under.

Anyone else thinking about covering their losses for the parlay by packing Denver at 2.75 to ensure either a profit or non-loss?

[PolishSensation]

Got 50 points to play with going into 4th in Heat/Celtics game.

I'm thinking of taking Nuggets +3.5. Maybe can still hit the parlay with it too.

[CheeseHead]

Should we hedge on the Nuggets now or play this one out? LTA's write-up said that he expected Howard to play...

[TC Woods]

OK, we need 50 or less points in the 4th quarter. Definitely going in favour of the under.

Anyone else thinking about covering their losses for the parlay by packing Denver at 2.75 to ensure either a profit or non-loss?

I'm a rookie at this, please explain the "packing Denver...."

[coachkap]

Yup Howard out

YEP thanks... "GREAT MINDS THINK ALIKE!!!"