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why you getting personal aussie ostrich?..i just said put more on..you win more with LTA's picks...fair call?
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Shitonme40 you called me a homo in an attempt to insult me and then tried to have a dig at lta. Did I really need to explain that to you? Or are you as simple as your insults and posts?Comment -
guys, enough....keep the discussions on point in here.... aussieH, just ignore the BS, dont feed the troll...Comment -
I am not adding to this play because the ref assignments are not favorable for an over play. In addition, this game is now at 202.5 at Pinny so a lot of the value is gone. Consequently, I will stick with a 2.5x play on the over. This is a play I identified early as the extreme value became evident as soon as I ran this matchup through my model. In addition, I think the qualitative factors also favor the over today making this a very solid over play. These teams played under a 196.5 total in late January and yet this game opened at 199.5 telling me the books also expect a higher scoring game. Since that late January game, both offenses have improved whereby the Suns are playing at a much faster PACE which is more conducive to their traditional style of play. Both teams are now ranked in the top 10 of PACE and are top 1/3 in possession per game. I expect a fast-paced game today which highlights a point guard battle between Irving and Nash. Neither team is a defensive force and both are ranked in the bottom 10 of DEFF. In addition, Cleveland should be able to get some easy second chance points from offensive rebounds and extra scoring chances where the Cavs rank #5 and #10 respectively. Both teams are rested for this game so I don't see fatigue slowing down this pace in the least. This Cavs team is now fully in Irving's hands and I expect him to come motivated to play a great game. With Tristan Thompson getting more time in the paint, I think the Cavs future is now. I have this game set at 205 giving those who locked this game up at 199 last night a full 6 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 2.5x. Good luck.
Play #2
Heat (+2) 1x (Locked)
These teams are so evenly matched that I have to roll with the points in this one. The statistical similarity on offense is striking, with both Miami and OKC ranking in the top 5 of OEFF, TS%, Floor %, EFG%, etc. just to name a few. As far as talent levels, these teams are also very similar when you consider they are ranked #1 and #2 in both efficiency differential and PER ratings (which are generally a solid way to "quantify" a "qualitative" factor such as "talent"). However, the true advantage in this game is on the defensive end of the court in turnovers where Miami's #3 rated defense in TOV% will look to pick-pocket OKC's #30 (last in the league) rated TOV% on offense. OKC's turnovers should be the key to a Miami cover/win today as this presents a true mismatch that OKC cannot answer. In addition, even though OKC has improved on defense to a DEFF ranking of #12, Miami has a DEFF #3 in the league and generally has the advantage in most defensive statistical categories (although OKC has a better DEFG% and O3P%). I have this get set at a PK giving us a full fg of value. If you look at the results from last year, OKC beat Miami in Miami as a 6 point dog and Miami won in OKC as a 1 point dog. I would not be surprised to see the same result in the home/away series for this season and I am rolling with the Heat for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Completely agree with you, I already have a double dime against my Thunder. Just can't overlook the amout of value on this one. If the Thunder try and run them out like they have done to other big time teams that would've killed him in the half-court, this time they won't have any advantage. On the other hand, the Heat are not that good of an half-court team either. The thing is, like you said, defense. And there there's no doubt the Heat have the upper hand. Also, LBJ has been a little off of late. And I dont even mean his play, but also his demeanor. I expect him to come out tonight with something to prove. The same about Wade.Comment -
Thank you my friend, unfortunately only able to get over 200.5 on the Cavs/suns, so I went with 1.5x instead of 2.5x. You got any other plays coming up? Haven't been able to get a good look at the cards in the past couple of days, studying and just going out with the girl and the friends and playing some basketball. I've been eyeing the Sixers since Friday but I though I could get more than 3.5 points. No I am at a lost about that one. Also liking the over at Portland, will need to look a little more into it.
GL
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Please post any injury updates on the Spurs. Here's what I see so far. I have a very strong lean on the Sixers, despite their horrible ATS record against winning teams. They just destroyed Boston with Boston in a fatigue spot and now face another older team in a fatigue spot that may or may not have Duncan (SI says he is out), and in which Neal, Ginobli, Parker and Splitter are all less than 100%.
San Antonio Spurs
3/25 11:13A Manu Ginobili G Rest Probable missed last game, is probable Sunday (3/25) vs. Philadelphia History Stats 3/24 8:14P Tim Duncan F Rest Out is out Sunday (3/25) vs. Philadelphia History Stats 3/25 9:36A Gary Neal G Foot Doubtful missed last game, is downgraded to doubtful Sunday (3/25) vs. Philadelphia History Stats 3/24 8:31P Tiago Splitter F Back Questionable missed last game, is questionable Sunday (3/25) vs. Philadelphia History Stats Comment -
LTA for those who are getting 202 should we wait and see if steam will knock it downComment -
To help improve your knowledge of this business. This sheds some true light on how lines are set in the "new world" of sports investing. Enjoy!
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Actually Under 202.5 in Cleveland. Early hour, low teams stats as far as scoring goes, good refs and the fact that Pheonix was an Under machine on the road makes it a nice bet I think.
Hope it will be between 200 - 202.
Actually also took Thunder -1 as the main bet, so I guess we are head to head tonight. I believe that Thunder simply a better team. I rate Heat third in the league, behind Thunder and the Bulls. To get almost a PK line at home for a team that I think is better and hungrier makes it a no brainer for me.
At least if I lose, I know that you won, so at least one of us will have a good night
BOL!Comment -
Good luck dude....not that I put much stock in the following trend, but you mentioned that the over has not fared well with these teams in early day games. However, both teams are 2-1 o/u in day games so toda being a day game does not bother me.Actually Under 202.5 in Cleveland. Early hour, low teams stats as far as scoring goes, good refs and the fact that Pheonix was an Under machine on the road makes it a nice bet I think.
Hope it will be between 200 - 202.
Actually also took Thunder -1 as the main bet, so I guess we are head to head tonight. I believe that Thunder simply a better team. I rate Heat third in the league, behind Thunder and the Bulls. To get almost a PK line at home for a team that I think is better and hungrier makes it a no brainer for me.
At least if I lose, I know that you won, so at least one of us will have a good night
BOL!
I actually have some pretty strong leans in quite a few games today. In addition, to the over and Miami, I also like Minny at PK, Philly at +3 or more (might buy up to +4 since I can still get 3.5), Utah +1.5 and Memphis +7
Good luck to you today.
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Love your Cle PHX O 199 play! Hope 1st half goes well over and We have enough room to middle/hedge.Good luck dude....not that I put much stock in the following trend, but you mentioned that the over has not fared well with these teams in early day games. However, both teams are 2-1 o/u in day games so toda being a day game does not bother me.
I actually have some pretty strong leans in quite a few games today. In addition, to the over and Miami, I also like Minny at PK, Philly at +3 or more (might buy up to +4 since I can still get 3.5), Utah +1.5 and Memphis +7
Good luck to you today.
I took Heat OKC over 201, OKC ML (-120) Memphis +7.5 (LAL are 9-22 on sunday last 2 seasons on national TV games), M on nuggets +2(-120)
(Denver is on 2nd game of road trip, 1st game they were +2 and got kicked by utah. Minn returning home after 7 game road trip and I alway try to fade 1st home game after long road trip. Double OT in OKC where they lost by 9 in 2nd OT. Only 2 wins in 7 game road trip for minn. 63% public on Minn and no line movement means "sharp" money coming in on Denver)
Cant decide in spurs/philly game here as Line dropped from 5 to -3 (-3.5 at some outlets)
At 5 i would have taken philly but no play so far
BOL LTA and allComment -
Lta possible plays on all of them?! I love it! I might lock Philly up now while I can get 3.5Comment -
Sixers makes a lot of sense, with Joe being the ref and with Duncan probably out.
The problem is that teams playing third leg of B2B2B at home been doing pretty well.
Jazz I think should run out of their luck sooner or later. Won few very tough games in close finishes, poor on the road and have D-Will on deck as look ahead game. I'm thinking of backing the Hawks that last time that they played third leg at home in B2B2B, trashed the Bulls despite playing three OT's in the two first legs of B2B2B.
Memphis are great B2B and they match up well against the Lakers, but Lakers been playing really good recently, so it's hard to fade them, at least for me. Sessions trade really did wonders for them.
Usually we think eye to eye more than we not, but tonight we almost on every game on opposite sides. Wonder why it is...Comment -
Lta, thanks for that video clip it was quite informative.
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bol LTAComment -
Tailing LTA and a bonus NCAA play
Minny -1.5 1X
Jazz +1 1X
76ers Money Line +135 1X
Grizzlies +6.5 1X
Suns/Cavs OVER 201.5 1X
76ers +3 1X
Heat +1.5 1X
5 TEAM Parlay
Minny pick
Jazz +5
76ers +5.5
Heat +3.5
Grizzlies +10.5
1X to win 7X
NCAA late play and this is coming from a Kansas grad. student, as well as a Kansas bball fan and supporter... My heart is with the Jayhawks, but my $$$ is on the Tarholes.
UNC +2 3X
UNC Money Line +110/+117 3X
Good luck guys! Let's get today
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This game isnt in too much trouble but the Cavs got no scorers jeezComment -
O/U for 2nd half at 99? I would say its in a lot of trouble. And thats just if you're in at 199.Comment -
Really liking the Miami play LTA. Enjoy the day with the family and thanks again for your time.Comment -
Minny have scored 6 more points in their first 2 Quarters to Clevelands 3 QuartersComment -
Still no quarter over 50 points in Cleveland. It's bound to happen in the 4th.Comment -
Not looking good in ClevelandComment -
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OT maybe
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no heart in the 4th quarter....
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No more bigger $$$ on higher units for me.Comment -
Unlucky Aussie H...hope you didn't LOSE too much
variance ....now i'm starting to understand it better following this thread.
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