why don't u post ur plays and we'll compare them to LTA and see who does better for the rest of the season?
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Back to business. This one's down to 177.5.
Do you guys have the lines posted for Bobcats/Bucks, Heat/Pistons, Mavs/Spurs? My book has them but I can't see them on SI or SBR. I want to jump on two of these, but I tend to think the line moves will go in my favor for a better number later.
According to my local who generally follows 5D/Pinny, the Bucks are giving 6.5 with a total of 200, Heat are giving 9 with a total of 195 and Spurs are giving 3.5 with a total of 198.5.
Anyone else have these games up yet?Comment -
Two small local bookies offer 185 in Charlotte, but 200 makes more sense.
I hope your bookie is correct. Would hit Charlotte and Under if those are the numbers when Pinny releases it. But I think that it will be 195 - 196 points in Charlotte and no more than 6 points (still would take the Under and Charlotte but for less units)...Comment -
Back to business. This one's down to 177.5.
Do you guys have the lines posted for Bobcats/Bucks, Heat/Pistons, Mavs/Spurs? My book has them but I can't see them on SI or SBR. I want to jump on two of these, but I tend to think the line moves will go in my favor for a better number later.
According to my local who generally follows 5D/Pinny, the Bucks are giving 6.5 with a total of 200, Heat are giving 9 with a total of 195 and Spurs are giving 3.5 with a total of 198.5.
Anyone else have these games up yet?
If that is true I'm all over Spurs tomorrow.Comment -
At Heritage, Milwaukee is -6 (up from 5.5), Miami is -8 (down from 9), and SA is -4 (unchanged).Comment -
My book doesn't have any of those games up yet, but I managed to get 1x Philly/Celtics under 179.5 @-110 & they took it off the board literally as I was typing this.Comment -
Yea none of those games are posted on Bookmaker. I managed to get that Bos/Phi U at 178.5 and it's dropped to 178 already.Comment -
Lta, i like the Magic/Cavs under 193 today,
does your model indicate any value on this
play today. I really like it.Comment -
Detroit has been a covering machine lately. Playing really well. Down 22 the other day at Denver and almost won the game. Always a chance that the Heat will blow a team out, but Detroit at home +9 seems like good value. Any opinion on that game LTA?Comment -
Why do you care what these idiots betting sbr points think? Why do you bother caring about proving yourself to these people? Who cares about having the respect of some idiot who thinks losing 10 in a row makes you a loser or winning 10 in a row makes you god. Forget the sheep
You like to follow flash-in-the-pan guys that come on here, post ten winners in a row and then end up losing their shirts. Bottom line, I am on of the very few proven (i.e. over 1,000 plays) winners on this site. That's not bragging either, that's just a fact. Am I going to hit 60% over the course of a season? No. Am I a 53%-55% capper that will earn about $10K or more over the course of a MLB and NBA season? Yes.
Despite my recent slump, I remain well over $5K in profit on the season. By the end of the playoffs, I will be up well over 30x or over $12,000. I can say that, because I have a proven process along with the intelligence, discipline, confidence and desire to continue profiting in this business and proving to people that long term success is possible.
Don't worry, I know that winning cures all. The good thing is that I also know a winning streak is right around the corner. It's only a "when", not an "if."Comment -
I like DET +9 here as well. Someone on the board pointed out a while ago that DET plays better on FRI and SAT nights at home and I've found this to be true. This just seems like a game MIA won't give a shit about. I mean they'll win but I just don't think it will be by 10+.Comment -
Lta, thanks for the info.
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i am looking into mlb too.Comment -
I don't see any problem with the refs and the Under bet (10 Under in 18 games with total below 184 points). They actually like Under 184 points as much as I can tell.
Anyway, refs won't decide this one I think, because teams style of play is not the one that should cause refs to decide the total...Comment -
You have to consider lifetime numbers when evaluating refs instead of just this season so you have a large enough sample size to make an informed determination. In addition, you should also consider avg foul calls per game in adiition to o/u numbers. Both zarba and kogut are guys that favor high scoring throughout their careers. GLComment -
Play #3
Bucks/Bobcats over (199.5) 1x (Locked)
Im taking this now because maggette was switched to probable and I think that keeps this game in the 200 range with a closer around 201. This is a classic over spot with two bad teams that like to play fast and with no incentive to play any defense in this game. I expect the players to try and pad their offensive stats tonight. No time for an indepth writeup, but I have this game set at 201.5 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
S.Ant. total up to 202 Time to pressComment -
Where do you get the updated injury info from? Everywhere I've looked still lists Maggette as questionable.
-JudgeComment -
the only thing is the dreaded back home game after long west coast road trip. Like what happened to Milwaukee last night, they looked lackadaisical all game long back home after covering 8 games in a row. This is common for teams after such long roadies. They get back home and their mind is not on basketball. Have to go buy gifts for the kids because you were away, gotta bang the wife or girlfriend, take care of commitments, friends, family matter etc - more often than not their minds are not on basketball after a long road trip.
I'm leaning Heat 1st Q or 1st half here . They've had a couple days off and didn't play well out of the gate on 2 days off the last 2 times. And they have OKC and Dallas coming up and think they will start covering games, DET as a tune up. They go in spurts, they cover a bunch in a row and don't cover a bunch in a row (in their wins). I just feel we're approaching a time where they will cover a bunch of games like they did 3 or 4 weeks ago. Or at least, cover more than they have latelyComment -
I like the Under in SAS, but I as wrote, strongly disagree with you in Charlotte, though didn't take the overall total here, but took slightly different route
Took Under in Indiana. Looks a bit too good to be true, but I hope it's not the case...Comment -
Good point. Just too lazy to be honest to go through career stats.
I also take a look at the refs only as a small part of capping procedure, so not too worried if I get bad refs.
Hope we both win the Under in Philly and SA and that the numbers will go our way, so that we both profit in Charlotte...
GL!Comment -
Tony Parker is listed as Doubtful on Don Best Primium now. Should help the Under.Comment -
Never get how people take big lines on the road as if it's a given. I think in my all years of betting, I can count on one hand the number of times I took a team playing on the road, laying 9+ points.
Why would Heat demolish the Pistons? Can't see any special reason.Comment -
Tony Parker and Tiago Splitter are both out tonight for SA. What impact do you think that has on the O.U?Comment -
Doesn;t mean it will for sure happen, but its a situational spot that favors the Heat. And it's not like they're incapable of it.
From February 7th to Feb 23rd:
Beat Cavs by 16
Beat Wizards by 17
Beat Hawks by 20
Beat Bucks by 19
Beat Pacers by 15
Beat Cavs by 24
Beat Orlando by 12
Beat Kings by 12
Beat Knicks by 14Comment -
Again, I just have a feeling with following the local media and the happenings of the team. The Heat, since the start of last season, go on runs where they cover a bunch, and runs where even in the wins, they dont cover a bunch. I feel they will soon go on a run where they start covering a bunch (if not tonight, very shortly). And tonight is a spot where they certainly can. Detroit is home after a long west-coast road trip and usually you see a let down in this spot (see bucks last night and a ton of other examples this year throughout the league). Furthermore, Detroit played miami very tough in the 1st meeting in detroit and almost won the game, losing by 3. However, that was a situational spot that greatly favored detroit . Tonight it greatly favors miami, on a few fronts.
BOLLast edited by PR9; 03-23-12, 12:24 PM.Comment
