LTA's NBA Plays

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 3/21/2012

2 - 1 = +0.9x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

110 - 94 = +15.35x

Back to grind....good luck.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/22/2012

Play #1

Pacers (-6)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I don't think the Pacers stay at -6.5 and eventually get back to -7 Thursday morning without ever moving to -6. Therefore, I am going to buy the hook in this spot now and ensure myself a number I very satisfied to play. Had we done this on Saturday, we would have won the Jazz and Nuggz wagers. This one opened up at 7 on Pinny and I am discounting some strange numbers that popped up earlier at Betonline. In this game, Indiana has a significant statistical advantage in almost every advanced statistical category, especially on defense where they outrank the Wiz in virtually every category. While Washington does have the advantage of scoring in the paint and on the fastbreak, Indiana ranks in the top 8 in both of those defensive categories. Therefore, I expect Indiana's defense to stymy anything Washington throws at them. Situationally, the Pacers are well rested while the Wizards ended a 6 game road trip at NJ with a win. Now, they have to come right back home -- where they are 7-15 ATS -- on b2b with no rest where they are 4-6 ATS. Washington is a poor road team and is in a horrible situational spot. As far as Nene adding something to this matchup, I do not think he will be enough after playing 31 minutes on Wednesday. Indiana needs to blow a team out and this game sets up perfectly. I have this game set at -8, plus this is a great situational fade of Washington. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Pacers for 1x. Good luck.

[dmitean]

posted twice by accident...

[dmitean]

If Wizards would have lost tonight, would have played Wiz for sure. I think that getting rid of the head cases (Young and McGee) and getting Nene made the team sane, Wall happy and I really think they can make a small run.

But as you said, coming home off a long trip and off a win... Could be a letdown spot.

If I'm not taking the Wizards, I hope you win it!



P.S. Congrats on a winning night!

[YouHave2outs]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/22/2012
Now, they have to come right back home -- where they are 7-15 ATS -- on b2b with no rest where they are 4-6 ATS.

just part of a very nice and more in depth write up. i know it's probably one of the last angles you looked at, but you did mention it. haven't you responded to people that post stats like that in the past by saying that ats records tend to move towards .500 on average as the season goes on. meaning vegas is likely to give wizards slightly favorable lines on average, whereas maybe a covering machine like the spurs gets inflated lines?

[ronnieseah]

when im on under i will be happy when the 1Q is low, not the other way round.

I love a high scoring start when on one of LTAs under's

I recall about 66 pts for the 1Q of Saturdays Knicks game and the under hit....

LAst time I checked it was a 4Q game...not 1.

[Love The Action]

just part of a very nice and more in depth write up. i know it's probably one of the last angles you looked at, but you did mention it. haven't you responded to people that post stats like that in the past by saying that ats records tend to move towards .500 on average as the season goes on. meaning vegas is likely to give wizards slightly favorable lines on average, whereas maybe a covering machine like the spurs gets inflated lines?

I dont look at ats stats as a controlling factor.....they are pretty, but not that important. Sort of like "icing in the cake." Its good to have ats stats on my side, but they wont keep me off a play I otherwise like if the ats stats are not in my favor. I look at everything though and some people really like that stuff so, i threw those ats numbers in my writeup. They are not the reason I like this play, but do favor it. GL

[Love The Action]

when im on under i will be happy when the 1Q is low, not the other way round.

Many times in the nba, when a game starts off high scoring it ends low scoring and and vice versa. Just the way it is...

[Love The Action]

If Wizards would have lost tonight, would have played Wiz for sure. I think that getting rid of the head cases (Young and McGee) and getting Nene made the team sane, Wall happy and I really think they can make a small run.

But as you said, coming home off a long trip and off a win... Could be a letdown spot.

If I'm not taking the Wizards, I hope you win it!



P.S. Congrats on a winning night!

There is only so much nene can do. Plus, I think this play is won by indiana's bench because washington is SO thin right now. Even if washington's starting unit can hang, the wiz's second unit will get destroyed by indy's second unit. Washington has no depth. Plus, as we both mentioned, this is a classic situational letdown spot for washington. Moreover indy needs a blowout easy win under their belts. Indy is playing for the playoffs, where the wiz are playing for pride. I know who my money is on and dont see why anyone would play the wiz at any number under 8. Good luck in whatever you choose.

[aussieH]

Clippers are in a must win game and Paul is playing on his home court. Really liking this play. Line currently -3

Hate to say it but what do you think lta

[Speedy88]

Clippers are in a must win game and Paul is playing on his home court. Really liking this play. Line currently -3

Hate to say it but what do you think lta

Trapcity.

[Love The Action]

Clippers are in a must win game and Paul is playing on his home court. Really liking this play. Line currently -3

Hate to say it but what do you think lta

I would not put my money on the Clippers verse anyone right now....they are a mess.

[aussieH]

Thanks for the advice.

[PR9]

clips messiness reminds me of knicks messiness pre-Lin . only difference clips played well early in season, knicks will play well later in the season.


clips also a 2nd half of the season fade team through their entire existence. This is the status quo for them

[Pross1]

John Lucas is a straight up scumbag.

Don't hate. JL3 is the man.

-Bulls Homer

[Love The Action]

Don't hate. JL3 is the man.

-Bulls Homer

I like JL3 too....however, he acted with no class at the end of the game. Didnt you watch the game and see Thibs chew lucas out for not running out the clock? Stacey King and Neil Funk were talking about it at the end of the game. Lucas was not following direction and was trying to pad his stats instead of dribbling out the clock as instructed. Thats an easy way to get into Thibs doghouse.....

[Pross1]

I like JL3 too....however, he acted with no class at the end of the game. Didnt you watch the game and see Thibs chew lucas out for not running out the clock? Stacey King and Neil Funk were talking about it at the end of the game. Lucas was not following direction and was trying to pad his stats instead of dribbling out the clock as instructed. Thats an easy way to get into Thibs doghouse.....

Actually I didn't get to see it b/c I was at the Blackhawks game but thanks for the heads up. In general the way JL3 has stepped up with Rose out has been an absolute pleasure. I'm glad Thibs put him in his place if he didn't have his head in the game.

[dmitean]

About NO - LAC game, I wouldn't touch it. I hate games with huge x-factor like CP3 coming home.
CP3 cried when he was told that Scott got fired. Who knows how will he feel coming back home and how it will influence his play.
I didn't see your Orlando - Phoenix play, but I wanted to play it, but one of the reasons I didn't in the end, becasue there were rumors that Nash and his wife divorced because she cheated on him with J-Rich that was on Suns roster back than. With such info, you really don't know how players/ teams will react and I decided to skip the match (that ended up winning). Some spots you really can't cap, you can only speculate and hope to be right...

[MindGames]

I believe the first half might be close in the Pacers/Wiz game, but with the addition of Barbosa in the lineup and Granger finding a rhythm as of late, Indy will be too much to handle down the stretch. Their solid D should force some late turnovers and easy baskets for the Pacers. I see a 102-92 finish here. Good luck to all!

[Highness]

I'm not sure how a Phoenix team that gives up nearly 50% of all defensive shots from 18-23 feet or from 3 point range, but ranks in the bottom 10 of defending such shots according to their EFG%, is a good perimeter defensive team? You can claim anything you want, but you need the stats to back it up. Although Phoenix has improved their defense over the last month, they are far from a good perimeter defense. In addition, they have no one to defend DHoward down low and I expect a dominate game from Orlando in the post.

You're right, I just equated having two really skilled wing defenders to perimeter defense, which apparently isn't the case

Glad to have you back....try not to get booted so fast this time.

With greek being gone after that 900 unit pounding he took, there's little risk of that

[Brooklyn Dick]

Dr. Bob is on Indiana also. Price will go up.

[Vasco]

Quiet on the boards today with a small card tonight, any other strong leans from anyone? Bucks have been red hot covering in 8 straight, won 6 in a row and 7 out of 8. I really like them, but it's now at -4. Doesn't seem like much value. Grizzlies haven't been playing great, but Portland is a complete mess. I think Memphis -1 is a solid play.

[Cinarocket]

Hey LTA i like the pacers pick but i have another question :

Say you're holding pocket kings preflop and someone goes allin what would you do?

[italianbandit]

Hey LTA i like the pacers pick but i have another question :

Say you're holding pocket kings preflop and someone goes allin what would you do?

I'm LTA's poker coach (LTA, I hope you don't mind me telling people)

He calls.

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

In poker it depends on the size of your chip stack/ the bettors chip stack. How many times has he gone all in? Where you are sitting at the table? How much money you already put in the pot? Are you committed? And so fourth.

[SlickRick1382]

Hey LTA i like the pacers pick but i have another question :

Say you're holding pocket kings preflop and someone goes allin what would you do?

Unless you put him on pocket AA then you call.

If it was something where they smooth call for the big blind, someone raises and they push all in then that's more dangerous but if someone straight pushed and you don't put them on pocket A's then you call 99 times out of 100

[smarotta09]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/22/2012

Play #1

Pacers (-6)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I don't think the Pacers stay at -6.5 and eventually get back to -7 Thursday morning without ever moving to -6. Therefore, I am going to buy the hook in this spot now and ensure myself a number I very satisfied to play. Had we done this on Saturday, we would have won the Jazz and Nuggz wagers. This one opened up at 7 on Pinny and I am discounting some strange numbers that popped up earlier at Betonline. In this game, Indiana has a significant statistical advantage in almost every advanced statistical category, especially on defense where they outrank the Wiz in virtually every category. While Washington does have the advantage of scoring in the paint and on the fastbreak, Indiana ranks in the top 8 in both of those defensive categories. Therefore, I expect Indiana's defense to stymy anything Washington throws at them. Situationally, the Pacers are well rested while the Wizards ended a 6 game road trip at NJ with a win. Now, they have to come right back home -- where they are 7-15 ATS -- on b2b with no rest where they are 4-6 ATS. Washington is a poor road team and is in a horrible situational spot. As far as Nene adding something to this matchup, I do not think he will be enough after playing 31 minutes on Wednesday. Indiana needs to blow a team out and this game sets up perfectly. I have this game set at -8, plus this is a great situational fade of Washington. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Pacers for 1x. Good luck.

wow .. that was an amazing call with it going back to 7 before hitting 6 lol .. i cant wait for your baseball thread.. im tailing everyone of those picks

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/22/2012

Play #1

Pacers (-6)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I don't think the Pacers stay at -6.5 and eventually get back to -7 Thursday morning without ever moving to -6. Therefore, I am going to buy the hook in this spot now and ensure myself a number I very satisfied to play. Had we done this on Saturday, we would have won the Jazz and Nuggz wagers. This one opened up at 7 on Pinny and I am discounting some strange numbers that popped up earlier at Betonline. In this game, Indiana has a significant statistical advantage in almost every advanced statistical category, especially on defense where they outrank the Wiz in virtually every category. While Washington does have the advantage of scoring in the paint and on the fastbreak, Indiana ranks in the top 8 in both of those defensive categories. Therefore, I expect Indiana's defense to stymy anything Washington throws at them. Situationally, the Pacers are well rested while the Wizards ended a 6 game road trip at NJ with a win. Now, they have to come right back home -- where they are 7-15 ATS -- on b2b with no rest where they are 4-6 ATS. Washington is a poor road team and is in a horrible situational spot. As far as Nene adding something to this matchup, I do not think he will be enough after playing 31 minutes on Wednesday. Indiana needs to blow a team out and this game sets up perfectly. I have this game set at -8, plus this is a great situational fade of Washington. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Pacers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Clippers/Hornets under (181.5) 1x (Locked)

This is a rare situational total play as opposed to a pure value buy. While my model says there is no value in this play quantitatively, I disagree because of the qualitative factors in play. We have two teams in bad fatigue spots, with cp3's homecoming and some surprising defensive strengths which match up well with these offenses. The refs are philips, dalen and fehr which is not a bad crew for the under and these are two of the slowest three teams in PACE. Some books have as much as 80% of all bets on the over as this is a highly backed public play, yet has experienced no line movement favoring a high scoring game. I expect an intense low scoring slow paced game and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[mikea33]

Thanks LTA

[smarotta09]

NOT saying this game is over at all .. just stating that washington looks really good.. i have NBA league pass and john wall is getting to the hole at will

[Hw101]

Lta. We got this today

[JM92]

Play #2

Clippers/Hornets under (181.5) 1x (Locked)

This is a rare situational total play as opposed to a pure value buy. While my model says there is no value in this play quantitatively, I disagree because of the qualitative factors in play. We have two teams in bad fatigue spots, with cp3's homecoming and some surprising defensive strengths which match up well with these offenses. The refs are philips, dalen and fehr which is not a bad crew for the under and these are two of the slowest three teams in PACE. Some books have as much as 80% of all bets on the over as this is a highly backed public play, yet has experienced no line movement favoring a high scoring game. I expect an intense low scoring slow paced game and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Already had this one, just played actually only now looking into games and I'm about done as this is probably the only play I really like.

I figure there's also tons of value in the Jazz, but I just can't overcome the fact they've been outscored in the paint by the Kings in the last two games

[TC Woods]

NOT saying this game is over at all .. just stating that washington looks really good.. i have NBA league pass and john wall is getting to the hole at will

Not over, they are only down 22.... but it's the first half

[Love The Action]

Pretty pathetic of Indy not even showing up for the 1h. Would love to know how many 6-7 point faves down 20 at the half have come back to cover in the last 10 years.

Seriously though....this was a perfect opportunity for Indy to come out with a strong performance and instead they fell flat on their face. Unreal...at least make it a competitive game. Here's hoping that we get lucky and are on the right side of one of these bad beats. The gambling gods owe us so many....

[mikea33]

Indy has burned us Aplenty this year