This is just plain annoying. As a thunder fan and over backer I almost want to break the tv and kill these guys tonight. They, as expected, are getting beat up in half-court situations against the Jazz. Im fine with that since I've said millions of time we're still not ready to be a superior half-court team... but to not do anything about it, to not push up the pace, to have 15 turnovers playing this slow is just ridiculous. You can't cap this kind of stuff for sure. That end to the half specially was just brutal. Should have had at least 3 or 4 easy layups that were blown up by terrible passes or simply wide-open misses down low.
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missing a lot of freethrows - lta was on the right side, just a bad day for durantComment -
tough start to the quarterComment -
some ot one time would be nice
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beg for ot nowComment -
188 pace...really need some late help...horrendous fourth quarter.Comment -
Loss. Well get it Back tomorrow. **** this gameComment -
First time I have ever visited this thread. Seems like that over for OKC was a solid play. And here I am hoping for OT.......
OUCH.Comment -
I guess everyone in this thread ate their money tonight on this over. Durrant sucked!!!Comment -
40 pt fourth quarter, how pathetic. And the finish to that first half was a joke. Thanks anyways. BOL to everyone!Comment -
Cant believe we were 16 pts under.....Until the last 30 sec of the 3rd, always thought we had it.
OKC score 90 pts in total............
Let me know the next time that happens!!!Comment -
I think that Under in Oklahoma today is golden. Thunder off a loss, Clippers playing second day in a row, total is really high.Comment -
Thanks bud. Appreciate it. Although I'm no where the capper you are, I hope to get there or close to it one day and a lot of what I am able to do now is mostly in part from what I've learned from you so I owe much of my winnings to you.
Look forward to being able to contribute more on here .
Cheers
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LTA, I've got two games I like today. I'm liking the over for the Bulls and Toronto. If Toronto can get to 85-90 points, I think this game easily goes over 185. I don't see the Bulls getting up for this game in Toronto to where they're playing lock down defense. I know that both teams are in the bottom half of pace but Bulls seems to roll over bad teams scoring at around 95-100. I have this capped at 187.5.
Also, I'm liking Lakers +5 here. This game is on national television. They've played twice already with Lakers winning by 3 at home and 5 in Dallas. There is a certain revenge angle here for Dallas but Lakers will definitely get up for this game even if they're awful away from home. I see this game being a coin flip for who wins but 5 points to either team is just way too much to give even with the revenge angle and the home court advantage. Lakers played last night in Houston and lost in a tough game but I don't see the b2b being too much of a factor here since both games are in Texas so not much travel. I have it capped at Dallas -2.5.Comment -
NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 3/20/2012
0 - 1 = -1.1x
NBA 2011-2012 Season
108 - 93 = +14.45x
A utah game burns us yet again.....onto wednesday. Good luck.Comment -
Good luck on Wednesday Heisenburg.Comment -
After watching last night's game, and now that I'm a little more composed to say so (lots of my anger last night was not only because of my bet, but also because of the Thunder's loss), I felt like that was really a learning experience for me.
I had that game going over based on two major factors and, after watching the game and re-evaluating the situation, I clearly see I overlooked two things: first, even though the Jazz are playing faster, the biggest reason they were ranked number 2 in pace over the last 5 games was the 10 extra minutes they played. Second, even though they are an efficient fast breaking team and they have, in fact, played at higher pace, it was obvious to think that they wouldn't be gunning up and down the floor against the Thunder knowing the previous results of their games and also, knowing they probably had the advantage in the half-court situation and on the boards. And also, with Okc going into a tough stretch including LAC tonight, I think I should've figured they wouldn't want to run that much as well and probably would try to beat the Jazz in a slow paced game. With that said, it bugged me that thanks to the free-throws and paint play, we only needed for Perkins and Ibaka to be able to make layups and also for the guys on that game to know how to throw a pass and the over would've cashed.
Still, my conclusion is that, if it was now, I would for sure take the Jazz (I also leaned them) instead of the over. Don't know if you agree with any of this or even if your reasons to make the play were the same LTA, but I definitively took it a bit as a learning experience.
on to tonight guys, I like the clippers and the Mavs side and the under for the game, so far.Comment -
Looks like Shawn Marion should be back tonight....Comment -
What do your numbers say about the Wash/NJ total? I was pretty surprised to see a 204.5 last night.Comment -
I think this is a classic second guess. We only needed a 59 point 4th quarter despite the poor shooting prior. The scoring lull in the beginning of the 4th killed any chance we had. Durant played terribly. I think this was a great bet, just didn't get the outcome we wanted. It's hard to predict if a team will have an off night or not.Comment -
The only reason we had a chance was because they were shooting close to 50% dude. Or did you predicted them to shoot 50%? Cause I didn't, I predicted a fast paced game and that was the main factor for the bet. I explained it correctly. It's a second guess yes, but it's the right one, and if we always think we made right play just because we had chance, or even because we actually won it, then in the long term I believe that leads to losing. I know what I thought the game would turn out to be, and expect for the free throws some how, it really wasn't.Comment -
All I'm saying is most of us thought it was a good play before the game, so just because we lost that doesn't mean we made a bad bet. If Durant played better and we caught a few breaks and it ended at 205 you wouldn't say it was a bad play. I'm not criticizing you I'm guilty of the samething at times. For example I loved the Bucks last night but only placed a small wager. Now I'm thinking I should have bet the house. But if Portland won and I made that bet I might be second guessing too. On to today, what are your leans? I love betting against the Clippers lately, but 8.5 may be too much. Knicks seem to be more of an under play with Woodson. I think I'm leaning under 192 in that game. Best of luck today.Comment -
NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/21/2012
Play #1
Bulls/Raptors under (185) 1x (Locked)
I will have a crazy day at work today, so will try to post my plays but they might not be right when I make them. I have this game set at 182 with Rose and would adjust it even lower with his absence. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Big wednesday card!! Lets get it gentleman!Comment -
If they scored 300 points the way they were playing, I would've said it was a bad play anyway. Actually, I posted twice during the game last night and I think in of those I referred to the fact that the Pace was completely off. You are probably a more experienced and bigger earner gambler than me, but still, I would advise you to rethink the way you "recap" the games. Did Milwaukee win because the game played out the way you thought? For instance, just some nights ago, I won a over game on a Wizards game by like 30 points. That happened because both teams shot over 50% and they didn't turn it over often... my prediction was definitively not that, it was for the game to go a higher pace than it did (I think it was versus the Magic, this game I'm referring to) and also I was expecting more misses that would have led to more fast breaks and high pace. So, even though it was 30 point win to say so, I didn't just said "men what a great play, completely nailed it". It was a good play, yes, but my main objective is to understand: out of 10 times, what would've been the results? And if I adjusted the shooting percentages, turnovers numbers and such, I reached the conclusion that the over edge was actually very little. See where I'm getting with this?
Like I said, I lean to Mavs and Clippers, Under at Mavs/Lakers and also have other small leans into the Sixers and the Hornets, but have to take a bigger look at those.
Gl guys
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Fair enough. I agree that it is important to analyze our plays and determine if it was the right play regardless of the outcome. Bulls/Raptors total down to 183.5 on my book. Damn. I don't think we'll see 185, but I'm hoping to see 184 or 184.5 again.If they scored 300 points the way they were playing, I would've said it was a bad play anyway. Actually, I posted twice during the game last night and I think in of those I referred to the fact that the Pace was completely off. You are probably a more experienced and bigger earner gambler than me, but still, I would advise you to rethink the way you "recap" the games. Did Milwaukee win because the game played out the way you thought? For instance, just some nights ago, I won a over game on a Wizards game by like 30 points. That happened because both teams shot over 50% and they didn't turn it over often... my prediction was definitively not that, it was for the game to go a higher pace than it did (I think it was versus the Magic, this game I'm referring to) and also I was expecting more misses that would have led to more fast breaks and high pace. So, even though it was 30 point win to say so, I didn't just said "men what a great play, completely nailed it". It was a good play, yes, but my main objective is to understand: out of 10 times, what would've been the results? And if I adjusted the shooting percentages, turnovers numbers and such, I reached the conclusion that the over edge was actually very little. See where I'm getting with this?
Like I said, I lean to Mavs and Clippers, Under at Mavs/Lakers and also have other small leans into the Sixers and the Hornets, but hv
e to take a bigger look at those.
Gl guysComment -
How come lakers under isn't a multi-unit play? I ask because usually 5+ points of value results in a bigger play. Just wondering if there are negative situational factors or ref assignments that are holding you back? Would be interesting to hear your thoughts as I love the playComment -
Laker/Mav total has me scratching my head. Looked at my online book when the play was posted UN 190 1/2. My book had the game at 188. Jumped to 190, 190 1/2 and now sitting at 191.
Dallas on a streak of 6 straight overs. Lakers 7-1 last 8 over. Lakers hard to bet on the road with side, but showing some consistency with five straight road games going over. Dallas 4-1 over last five at home.
The Bulls total is always of interest, with that smothering defense. I was watching the Knicks/Raptors game last night and when Bayless left the court (hip pointer) Raptors really struggled after he departed. He will be missed if he doesn't play tonight and was hot in Calderons absence. Calderon looked tenative vs the Knicks and registered 11 points. Bayless status uncertain for tonights game. If he doesn't play, or is ineffective, should favor the under. Bulls total at 183 1/2 for me. I might play it if it gets to 184. I have the Bulls - 6 1/2 that I grabbed last night. I'm a huge Bulls homer, so I usually have something on them or the total, since I watch every game.
Also grabbed the Knicks + 4 1/2. I've won four straight with them and will keep riding that train until they lose. Sixers really struggling as of late and needed the win against the horrific Bobcats to stop a 4 game slide. Knicks have some nice team chemistry going.
Good luck with your plays and picks tonight.Comment -
LTA, I was wondering if you keep track, besides your total YTD, of the YTD specified to overs/unders and favs/dogs?Comment -
Lta do you like the under in Philly? Nyk have been playing solid D and philly at home is always great D. Obviously more to the lean on my phone thouggComment
