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Hey absolutkaos, what makes you say 3% for unit size? I've always been curious as to what % is the "correct" amount to wager on a specific bet. I did some reading on the Kelly Criterion, and it changed my thinking toward amounts to be wagered on different bets.
Even if wagers are +ev, if someone's bankroll is fixed, then betting too high of a percentage will turn a +ev situation into a -ev situation. I understand the flat bet system is a way to ensure +ev earnings in the long run, but that also doesn't take into account downswings that are numerous standard deviations negatively away from the norm. In this case, somebody could lose their bankroll altogether if they continue to use their flat bet strategy.
I would be interested to hear people's opinions, and more importantly, some empirical data that can give us insight toward the "correct" amount to wager when making multiple wagers.
LTA, your comments are always appreciated.Comment -
But you're not using a "fixed" or "flat bet" strategy if you are following the 3% rule.
For example, if you start with a BR of $1000, and you are laying $30/game as 3% of your total, as your bank roll increases to say $1500 your 3% bet is now $45/game. Conversely, if your BR drops in a cold slump, then you adjust accordingly. If your BR drops to $750, then you reduce your bets to $22.5/game.
This ensures maximum viability in the long run. You're not betting a "flat" dollar amount, so your BR will last longer in the cold streaks. At the same time, as you hit a hot streak, you can continuously be increasing your bets to be taking advantage of your streak. No doubling down, no trying to buy a big win to get you back in the black.
The main thing I've learned this year is its all about the slow and steady long term gains vs. hitting the big ones, and chancing it on the parlay action plays.Comment -
Couldn't agree more with adjusting the unit size with the size of your bankroll, but this brings us to another question. Why 3%, why not 2% or 4%? Curious if you have any sort of formula, data to prove that 3% is the "correct" amount to maximize profits.Comment -
I have also searched for the correct answer to this question over the years. What I have found is that there really is no "correct" answer. I think it is all dependent on each individual's betting style and bankroll. My personal opinion is that for bettors like LTA, a larger % per unit (such as 2/3%) is an appropriate amount as he keeps his bets consistent (1 to 2 units) and keeps his plays to a minimum (normally 2/3 per night). For bettors such as myself and many others on this site, who like to have more action and play more then 2/3 games per night, I have found that .75/1 % is a more appropriate amount per unit. At the same time, I think each individual bankroll is also a very important factor. If your bankroll is just that-- your "bankroll", then protecting it is the most important key to this business. My bankroll is it for me... if I lose it, im done. So I gear my bets and everything I do around protecting it. Many guys can afford to reload if they go bust every now and then... so protecting that roll isnt quite as crucial. So for me, it goes without saying... a low % risk (approx. .75% per unit) is what I find comfortable for my style. It is enough to where every bet matters to me... but also low enough so that a tough streak doesnt crush me. If I could afford to reload and losing the roll wasnt quite as a big deal, I no doubt might up my % to a higher amount. Either way... everyone is different and I think you just need to find what the right level is for you. Once you find that level, try to stick with it and let it play out through a full season's ups and downs---consistency is key.
BOL with whatver number you end up deciding on
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I've not seen the math behind it, but I've read that 3-5% should be the range that you're playing in for long term success. Obviously, there is one important criteria of this method that I think is clear, none of us have infinite BR's. If we did, then lay as much as you want. For the casual guy like me who is looking to make sports a little bit more exciting, and make a little profit on the side then I have to be a bit more "conservative".
I suppose I look at 3% as being a number that to me seems fairly conservative, and not too high of a risk. If I was to consider playing a 5% play, that is a substantially larger play (in my mind) and I wouldn't feel comfortable laying that kind of action every day. I dont see any reason why you couldn't play 2% if you wanted, and if that amount made you more comfortable, then why not roll with it. You have to find that balance of maximum profit vs. acceptable risk. Like I said, the long term player isn't going to be able to sustain a bad streak playing 10%, as the reality is your BR would run out, and the likelihood of making desperation bets increases.
I should mention, when I see LTA making a 2x (or more) play, that's one of those opportunities where I might go out on a limb and lay a higher percentage, as he's been pretty dead on with his multi-unit plays this year.Comment -
I think I'll be doing a lot of research on this topic in the coming month, attempting to incorporate expected value, variance, a lot of math and number crunching, and whatever other important variables I find along the way.
Just to note, I've been using 1% as my unit size, but I follow LTA and John Ryan so I usually have anywhere from 4% to 15% (on very big cards) on the line on any given day.
I'm working on coming up with my own simulator, but I'm far away from having that up and running.Comment -
I think the line jumped a little bit but you can find that line at bet365 or pinnacle but at a lower oddsComment -
It never moved to 4 except for a few minutes at Greek, BM/Cris and Heritage. I was able to get 3 a few times throughout the day when Pinny was juicing the Clippers in the -109 or -110 range but I didn't see any major outlets move off of 3.5. I just couldn't trust either team in this game.
I don't have an opinion on the Suns/Heat total but have a slight, unplayable lean on the Suns (I would play it at +12). Good luck buddy.Comment -
I was able to get 203.5 right around when this total opened at 10:18 EST...I was waiting for it. 203.5 was actually available at both my locals. As I've mentioned an incalculable amount of times, I have one local that follows Pinny/5d numbers and another that follows Legends. I posted the play at 10:37 am EST after locking it in around 10:25am EST with my local that follows Legends. For your ease of reference, I have copied the Legends line movement from SBRodds for you below. In addition, I was also able to get 203.5 at my other local when Pinny started juicing under 204 at -109 and -110. As I mentioned to you before, whenever Pinny gets that high of juice on any side or total, my local shades his numbers by a 1/2 point in the direction of the juice. Sometimes this helps and sometimes it hurts, but I can usually get a different number at my other local so it works out well. In this case, I was actually going to take 204 at the opener, but when I refreshed the odds it had moved to 203.5 so I just locked up that number. My model has this game set at 207, so I knew this was going to go up at any number below 206. Sure enough, it went up to 205 within an hour of me locking in 203.5. GL
LEGENDS
03/20 06:35 PM 204½ -110 204½ -110 03/20 12:48 PM 205 -110 205 -110 03/20 10:27 AM 204 -110 204 -110 03/20 10:24 AM 203½ -110 203½ -110 03/20 10:18 AM 204 -110 204 -110 Comment -
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If you knew it would go up at anything under 206, why do you think the first line move at Legends was 204 to 203.5?Comment -
Great money management conversation going on in here guys....keep it up.
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Good luck today LTA, Im off to bed!Comment -
Funny amigo, I would have played the Suns @ + 13 or better, but would've also played the Heat @ - 9.5. Neither number materialized but I got close to pulling the trigger on the Heat. I thought they'd come out focused just like they did. Im just scared that if they don't pull to much away and guys like Nash, Gortat and Hill are in the game in the second half, the bench of the Heat will never be able to maintain a 10 point lead.Comment -
Who knows...probably because they took a big under bet or because Pinny started to juice the under 204. I don't concern myself with "why" a line moves because that is something about which I will never have a true answer. Only the books know. Consequently, a move from 204 to 203.5 would not "scare" me off a play on the over, rather, it would make me feel better about getting a better number than I originally had identified. My goal is to look for numbers identified by my model that I feel are the optimal numbers to play for a particular matchup. Once I see those numbers, I pounce on them. If I can get better than that optimal number, then that is just icing on the cake.
In this case, I was more than happy to take 204 because that is one of the top 20 key totals in the NBA hitting about 1.69% of the time. I didn't care why it went down below that key number, I was just glad it did. I was quite confident that this was never going to get below that range because I expected the books to open at or around 206. When I saw 204, I was happy. When I refreshed and saw 203.5, I was even happier and locked it in.Comment -
Not sure why but I really expected LTA to be on with these later games....Comment -
blah. i didn't go with my gut today and play the over in the memphis and sacramento game. would've played it at 201 and beaten the line by 3.5 points. gotta start trusting myself.Comment -
I always like to see both teams scoring in the first quarter of an over rather than a one-sided game. Let's get it and keep the streak alive!
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I also capped this game to go over so I basically have two units on it. I had 2 main factors for this play: Pace and Free Throws. And although pace is letting me down, the only reason we didn't have a terrible first quarter? 13-15 total of FTA/FTM in the first. Lets hope this trend keeps up and someone other than Westbrook can shoot the ball and we will be completely all right.Comment -
101 2nd half o/u.
I personally like where we are at.Comment -
Need that big 3rd quarterComment -
Durant can't make shit!Comment -
Explosive 4Q, OT, or intense foul game at the end, and the OVER can still hit
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