LTA's NBA Plays

[pokerwhiz90]

Seems like C.J Watson is playing. Dont like that at all, to be honest. Would rather have him sit on the bench the whole game chewing gum instead of running like a freak and jacking up threes.

how many pts do you think no will score?

[vyomguy]

be careful after the break and bet small

[pokerwhiz90]

john lucas is more accurate from downtown and a more abundant scorer, not only that, he doesnt play a lick of defense being a midget on the floor

also john lucas doesnt even use the shotclock into consideration - i like cj's return a lot better, less turnover prone, less garbage points by the opposing team

[JM92]

john lucas is more accurate from downtown and a more abundant scorer, not only that, he doesnt play a lick of defense being a midget on the floor

also john lucas doesnt even use the shotclock into consideration - i like cj's return a lot better, less turnover prone, less garbage points by the opposing team

John Lucas plays less time, way less.

CJ is a game-changer for the Bulls I think. LTA also mentioned this before if I'm not wrong.

As to your question, I think the match-up is really bad for the Hornets. The Bulls can jump at their shooters, pressure their guards and have great and quick inside defense that should prevent Kaman of making much happen. I don't think the Hornets pass 80 to be fair.

[Roto97]

Heads up guys. NBA League Pass free this week only for directv subscribers.

From February 28 to March 4, watch up to 40 games for FREE on Channels 750-768.

For once I don't have to desperately follow on the nba app on my phone.

[pokerwhiz90]

John Lucas plays less time, way less.

CJ is a game-changer for the Bulls I think. LTA also mentioned this before if I'm not wrong.

As to your question, I think the match-up is really bad for the Hornets. The Bulls can jump at their shooters, pressure their guards and have great and quick inside defense that should prevent Kaman of making much happen. I don't think the Hornets pass 80 to be fair.

i dont think the hornets go over 70 to be honest

[NOREGRETS]

Wizards / Bucks total up to 202. Bulls / NO total still steady at 180.

[Apathy31]

Heads up guys. NBA League Pass free this week only for directv subscribers.





For once I don't have to desperately follow on the nba app on my phone.

WOOO ty nothing worse than waiting for your phone to update!

I tried giving you points was not working

[Roto97]

WOOO ty nothing worse than waiting for your phone to update!

I tried giving you points was not working

Thanks for the points. It did go through.

[dshaffe4]

thanks for the heads up Roto97

[jackmyhoggoff]

I like the picks I'm tailing!

I like tailing you !

[NOREGRETS]

For those asking, here is our record heading into the second half of the season which starts today. Good luck! Here are the two plays so far for today. Despite my preference to tread lightly after the break, I have two more leans I am keeping an eye on. Might just add to our card for today, but im off to work for now. Stay tuned and good luck on everyone's plays today.

Rolling with any of your two leans? Let's clean up tonight and thank you, as always

[mikea33]

Wat r the leans LTA??

[JM92]

Curry out for Pacers, live bookies opening it @ either 6.5 or 7! 1.5-2 points value from my bet. Can't stress how I really couldn't make a play this good before I found this thread (and read some other stuff too), thank you very much LTA and all the guys that bring knowledge in here

[hey buddy]

Curry out for Pacers, live bookies opening it @ either 6.5 or 7! 1.5-2 points value from my bet. Can't stress how I really couldn't make a play this good before I found this thread (and read some other stuff too), thank you very much LTA and all the guys that bring knowledge in here

Curry is not on the Pacers but the Warriors

[Love The Action]

One of my leans was the game you guys are discussing. I was contemplating a play on the Pacers, but the loss of Curry drove the line up to -6, which really killed a lot of the value. I liked the Pacers at -5, but not -6. I guess we'll see whether laying off was a good decision or not.

Still have one more lean I am considering, but the ref assignments are not very favorable. This is in contrast to the plays we have so far which have fairly favorable ref assignments. We have Rush, Lewis and Roe in the Wiz/Bucks game and McCutchen, Forte and Smith, with the former crew favorable to the over and the latter crew generally favorable to the under.

[JM92]

Curry is not on the Pacers but the Warriors

I know buddy, obviously meant to write the Warriors.

LTA the line was at - 6.0 when Curry was still Probable/Questionable. Actually, I was a little scared it didn't move more in Indiana's favor, at least to 7 points. How in the hell are the Pacers less than 7 points favoured at home agains the Warriors without Curry? Well, so far so good.

What's your lean? I think I could really make something out of the total in the Clippers game for the over, but both teams have been playing better defense of late and you never know what pace the Clippers will play

[PistolPete13]

a lot of times when a star player is out, that first game without him the team really does a good job of rallying and stepping up. Then they go on a 6 or 7 game losing streak. But it happens often that they rally for that 1st game without him.
just my 2 cents.

[Love The Action]

John Lucas plays less time, way less.

CJ is a game-changer for the Bulls I think. LTA also mentioned this before if I'm not wrong.

As to your question, I think the match-up is really bad for the Hornets. The Bulls can jump at their shooters, pressure their guards and have great and quick inside defense that should prevent Kaman of making much happen. I don't think the Hornets pass 80 to be fair.

No, I never said Watson was a "game-changer." Watson is a serviceable back-up to Rose, who is more of an over prone player because he likes to push the pace much more than Rose when he is playing the point. Consequently, when Rose is out, you need to pay attention to who is at the point for the Bulls. If it's Watson and the total is overcompensating for the loss of Rose, then you probably will find some value on the over.

With respect to being a game-changer, I may have mentioned that Rip Hamilton has the ability to be an impact player for the Bulls upon his return, which ended up being tonight as we predicted.

GL

[Trivial]

Trying to look up the stats, but the NBA site seems busier than normal. Trying to figure out why the score in both our games are the same which looks good for the OVER, but obviously not for the UNDER, but lots of game left to play.

[alamo]

Nice 1q in Milwaukee !

[Love The Action]

Trying to look up the stats, but the NBA site seems busier than normal. Trying to figure out why the score in both our games are the same which looks good for the OVER, but obviously not for the UNDER, but lots of game left to play.

Even trying to predict whether a play will cash based on a high scoring or low scoring first quarter is utterly pointless. The NBA is a 4 quarter game where it is not uncommon for the team to combine to score 50 points in quarters 1, 2 and 3, only to score 30 in the 4th quarter and vice versa. Most often, when you are on an under you should not be pessimistic about a high scoring first quarter as that often leads to a low scoring 3rd and 4th quarter. Think back to the recent Bulls/Nets under we cashed a few weeks ago as proof of that principal.

The point being that an NBA game is never decided until the game is over so it's a waste of time to fret or rejoice before such time.

[JM92]

No, I never said Watson was a "game-changer." Watson is a serviceable back-up to Rose, who is more of an over prone player because he likes to push the pace much more than Rose when he is playing the point. Consequently, when Rose is out, you need to pay attention to who is at the point for the Bulls. If it's Watson and the total is overcompensating for the loss of Rose, then you probably will find some value on the over.

With respect to being a game-changer, I may have mentioned that Rip Hamilton has the ability to be an impact player for the Bulls upon his return, which ended up being tonight as we predicted.

GL

I only meant pace, not in literally being a "game-changer"

Also, I do not think Rip Hamilton will take the Bulls past the Heat in the ECF. On the other hand, I think he really helps create further distance between the Bulls and the number 3 team in the East. This game is now on NBa tv Portugal and I've been seeing bits of it, I love it how Hamilton is doing exactly what Steve Smith and Greg Anthony said he's got to do in the pre-game show coming of those screens, working with the bigs.

To bad this Hoosiers game is being so good, 'cause I would really love to watch how the Bulls play with Hamilton. Will probably see the whole 2nd Half.

[Trivial]

Even trying to predict whether a play will cash based on a high scoring or low scoring first quarter is utterly pointless. The NBA is a 4 quarter game where it is not uncommon for a team to score 50 points in quarters 1, 2 and 3, only to score 30 in the 4th quarter and vice versa. Most often, when you are on an under you should not be pessimistic about a high scoring first quarter as that often leads to a low scoring 3rd and 4th quarter. Think back to the recent Bulls/Nets under we cashed a few weeks ago as proof of that principal.

The point being that an NBA game is never decided until the game is over so it's a waste of time to fret or rejoice before such time.

Absolutely LTA. I have learned from yourself. My point wasn't to gloat of a win, or cry about a loss that hasn't happened yet. Sorry if I led on to believe of such.

No game is over until it is over.

I was merely trying to learn (I'm reading the Conquering Risk book and developing a model). I figure there is no learning like learning what happens during a live game in terms of statistics and why things are happening the way the are. It is easier for me to learn during a live game, than trying to figure out what happened after the fact to result the way it did.

In fact, I hate the NBA, and I hate basketball. However, I love math and statistics, and probability theory (I minored in math at University) - so the development of this modelling intrigues me as equally as the result of the wager.

In no way was I trying to predict the results of the wagers, but just statistically why the score is what it is.

Hope I made some sense.

[Love The Action]

Bulls defensive intensity is lacking tonight in a predictable let down spot with the Spurs game looming. The Hornets are also playing much faster than their average. However, the real difference is that NO is 12-12 and Chicago 3-3 on free throws so far. Not really worried, becasue the pace will slow down in the 2h and both teams will start bricking some shots, but if the refs keep calling all these fouls we won't have a shot.

[pokerwhiz90]

that was pretty ridiculous, but the hornets are definitely outworking the bulls and their intensity has picked up greatly

[Catchn_Picks]

Books get wiser. Chicago second half total U88.5. Begging for over money.

[smarotta09]

chicago/no 2h will slow down alot..the under still looks very good...

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/28/2012

Play #1

Wizards/Bucks over (200) 1x (Locked)

This is one of the games I have been eyeing since I capped the card last night and jumped on 200 when my local opened up in the late afternoon. These teams last played very early in the season at the end of December on a total set at 186.5 and the game stayed under by a 3 points, despite a PACE of 94.5. The reason that game stayed so far under is because Washington shot under 35% and such futility will be hard for them to repeat, despite their inconsistency. In this game, the books are opening up almost 14 points more that the closer for the previous game and that big of adjustment might just be them tipping their hand. Both teams are to 12 in PACE and possession per game, while very poor on defense. This is especially true when you consider that Washington ranks top 5 in points in the paint, fasbreak points per game and fastbreak efficiency, while the Bucks are in the bottom 1/3 of those defensive categories. Despite this being a Scott Skiles team, they are not playing his typical brand of defense and I don't expect them to start on Tuesday. With Jennings facing up against Wall, I expect them to pus the ball up and down the court and turn this into a score-first type game. I have this game set at 203.5 giving us over 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Hornets/Bulls under (180.5) 1x (Locked)

Pinny is juicing the over 180 at -110 and my local is posting 180.5. Even though I would really like to get the key number of 181 on this play, I am going to jump on this number now because I really don't see this one getting up that high. I think any number at 180 above is a solid play in this game. This play is the opposite of Play #1, whereas we expect a fast pace in that game, in this game we expect a much slower pace. This is the first game back for these two teams and they might be just a bit a rusty with so many reserves playing for New Orleans despite Jack being back in the lineup. Chicago's defense can be stifling at home and even though their offense is improved this year, I don't see them exploding tomorrow even if Rip plays. In the last game between these teams a few weeks ago, Chicago won 90-67. Generally, when a team scores under 70 like NO, I look for them to have a rebound performance in the next matchup. However, in this case, while I can see NO scoring more than 67, I do not see them scoring more than 85, especially when we can expect a PACE at 88 or less. I think this one will be close, but I think there's enough value here to take a shot. I have this game set at 177 giving us over 3 points of variance between my number and the books. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #3

Jazz/Kings over (201.5) 1x (Locked)

For my final play of the day, I am rolling with the over between Utah and Sacramento. Other than poor ref assignments, this game screams over. Sacramento plays at the 4th fastest PACE in the league and Utah averages 91 with a tendency to play at the pace of their opponent. I expect a fast pace tonight with Sacramento and Thomas eager to push the ball, light up the scoreboard and get their fans into the game early and often. With the news that the Kings are staying in Sac-town, I expect a raucous crowd tonight. Both teams are top 10 in points in the paint, fastbreak points and fastbreak efficiency, while are in the bottom 10 in those defensive categories. I expect some easy baskets in the paint and in transition. In the last game between these two teams at the end of December, Pinny had the total open at 195, which was bet down to 192 and the game ended under at 189. In this game, Pinny opened at 203 which was bet down to 201 and has since started to go back up. I just jumped on the 201.5 at my book which follows Legends, even though I greatly regret not getting 201 earlier. I had waited because I was disappointed in the ref assignments, but I am not going to sweat it since both teams are already adept at getting to the line with defenses that like to foul based on their FT/FGA numbers. I have this game set at 205 give us solid value at this number. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[JM92]

Got 201! Lets get that one as well, good luck

[WVU9494]

Chi/NO is over.....let's get Utah then

[smarotta09]

36...ya need a miracle

[Catchn_Picks]

Got 02...BOL all

[smarotta09]

okay now its over lol

[Catchn_Picks]

I don't want to jinx us but I am going to go ahead and mark Mil O a winner.