No...when I first started posting on SBR last season for the NBA playoffs I used $100 to equal 1x because that's how it seemed everyone else was doing it. At the time, my own personal unit scale corresponded to what I posted yesterday, but I was just trying to "fit in" at the time. As I saw more and more how ridiculous and silly that was, I changed my scale for my permanent threads starting with MLB last season. I used 1x-5x for MLB and that is what I will always use moving forward. 15x plays are silly.
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Go read the definition and calculation of PACE and a Possession. http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html
There are many, many more articles online if you google the key words.
I also recommend the book Basketball on Paper.
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Whether it goes up or down, I'm not too worried. I locked it in to preserve the number I was looking for (180) with the knowledge that it might go up. If it goes up, I will actually lean to the under even more and might make it a 2x play at 181. Just not sure if it was going to get there and didn't want to risk losing out on the 180.
Last time these teams played the books closed at 184 after opening at 190. I bought the opener and beat the closer by six points. However, Portland played out of their minds and the total soared over. However, instead of adjusting in favor of the over, the books dropped the total to 181 at opener, three less than the previous game's closer and 10 less than the opener for that game. What does that tell you?
That tells me they are tipping their hand in this game and when combined with the value I see, I love the under here at any number 180 and above.Comment -
LTA, you gonna have a play for ATL/CHI? From what I can see the books arent posting a spread or total yet because they are waiting on injuries, etc. However wouldnt you expect a total in the 170's. Apart from the last time these teams play where they hit 203, these games have been rather low scoring. I notice that the total seems to be always low in Chicago as well.Comment -
I like the Under in LA as well. The only worry I have is that H2H too many games went Over when I thought otherwise, including this season's game earlier in Portland.
Maybe it's better to play Under on Portland only, because Lakers at home can always score 95+ points and been shooting better lately.
Good luck!
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I see, never realized this, although in the end, they are very much a like and both have the objective of calculating the average number os possessions of a team. What I didn't realize was that it included the opponents as well, it actually makes a lot of sense to me now.Go read the definition and calculation of PACE and a Possession. http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html
There are many, many more articles online if you google the key words.
I also recommend the book Basketball on Paper.
Always learnin', no doubt
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Yeah I figure rose sits too. In that case, it could be similar to Boston/Chicago last Sunday where it was a low total but it went over.Comment -
Locked in at 180.5. Let's cash this LTA!
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Absolutely loving a Wizards team with 4 days of rest against a back-to-back Suns team. The Suns although better don't have a clear advantage statistically and I don't see them taking that much advantage of the turnovers of the Wizards or of their poor shooting. Plus they won't be putting any pressure on the defensive rebounding of the Wizards as well. Line moving towards the Suns though
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Unders are hittting at a percentage of 55.49% this season, anyone think this will start to drop during the second half of the season and books adjust the lines? Just a thought this morning. GL today on the plays. I locked Lakers at 180.5, thanks for your time and effort.Comment -
CHI/ATL opening at 182.5 on bet365Comment -
This morning, my line for the Lakers Under was at 180.5. Grabbed it with buying a half to 181.0. However, there was a max bet limit assigned to this play for some reason ($250). Currently, the line is down half a point, at 180.0.
<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="90%"><tbody><tr class="TrGameOdd"><td align="center">Ticket#:15564922
Feb 20 09:35 PM
</td><td valign="center">INTERNET / -1</td><td valign="center">Feb 20 08:48 AM </td><td>
NBA
</td><td align="center">STRAIGHT BET
[520] TOTAL u181-120 (B+½)
(TRAIL BLAZERS (POR) vrs LAKERS (LA))
</td><td>
300 / 250</td></tr></tbody></table>Comment -
...Line back up to 180.5.Comment -
Play #2
Hawks/Bulls under (183) 1x (Locked)
Writeup to come. The lines are lighting up like Christmas trees so I need to be ready to jump on numbers I am looking for such as this game. Most of the market is at 182.5, but when my local that follows Legends just opened this game at 183 instead of 182.5, I jumped on it. I realize this line could go up if Rose is announced as playing, however, I still like this under at 183. I have this game set at 178 so we are getting quite a bit of value here and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Nice, some early action
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Is Chicago overvalued?Comment -
Lta, do you have the total set at 178 w/ Rose playing
or is that insignificant?Comment -
niceeeeeee lta keep the plays coming
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bulls -10 seems awful high to me...been just 1-4 in matinee games, and are 1-1 vs hawks with the win coming by only 3 pts in chicago...just wondering ur opinionsComment -
I knew that Clippers/Warriors game would go back up after getting down to 197. However, I am so sick of losing on Warriors overs by just a few points that it's hard to take that over today. I could just see both teams playing to a 195 final and us losing by a few points. However, I do think we have value on the over in this play at any number at 197 ish.Comment -
I'm a little surprised by the 10. I had - 7 1/2 projected. Tough with Rose status? Watson and Brewer need to take pressure off Deng. Horford always gives Noah big problems, but he's out. Hawks have done well against the East. Bulls embarrassed by home performance against woeful Nets. Tibbs is a defensive man and you should see the bulls clamp down this afternoon. I think the under is a safer bet. I hit un 182 1/2 and will add if it creeps up.Comment -
i took the UNDER...
BTW it just dropped to 181.5 for those interested, i bought the xtra pt to 182.5 though
better jump quick if u like this playComment -
Bulls tough at home.Comment -
It's already started. Unders went from cashing at a 59% clip a month ago, all the way down to 55% today. However, if you check the last 30 days worth of games, unders only have a slight advantage at 51%.
The truth of the matter is that the books had adjusted big time and are giving us solid value on the over on quite a few plays every day. A lot of these plays set at 197 to 199 should be set around 203 or more. However, because these higher totals have been missing by just a few points, the books have been forced to overadjust.
If you've noticed, I have been playing a few overs recently set in that 195 range because of the value. Sooner or later, those plays are going to start hitting and the books will be forced to readjust in favor of the over. I don't know about you, but I plan on staying one step ahead of the books if at all possible.
Good luck buddy
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Got the Bulls U at 182.5 and lakers at 181 last night! Lets get them both! BOL
Any thoughts on Clip GS total? Line opened at 199 and down to 198.5 (I have seen GS games always go over as soon as line opens no matter who they playing)Comment -
Bulls game off the board.Comment -
Back on at Bulls -10 (-110) and total at 181.5 (-110 for u and o).Comment
