LTA's NBA Plays

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  • TH
    SBR Rookie
    • 02-07-12
    • 5

    #5041
    Maybe OT again?
    Comment
    • alamo
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 02-21-09
      • 7131

      #5042
      Nets players :- Sheldon Williams, Sundiata Gaines and Marshon Brooks are 1/22 FG. I need a calculator to work out that %
      Comment
      • Catchn_Picks
        SBR MVP
        • 09-02-11
        • 2984

        #5043
        Right now looks like a split on the totals and we need Utah to win the night.
        Comment
        • CheeseHead
          SBR Sharp
          • 12-03-10
          • 439

          #5044
          Originally posted by Catchn_Picks
          Right now looks like a split on the totals and we need Utah to win the night.
          Utah is done for.
          Comment
          • jas19illini
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 10-27-10
            • 682

            #5045
            How many bets have we lost in a row now that involved Houston? They seem to be our Achilles heel this season. :/
            Comment
            • Atlfan12
              SBR High Roller
              • 01-25-12
              • 205

              #5046
              0-3? Man, that was not what I was hoping for at all
              Comment
              • alamo
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 02-21-09
                • 7131

                #5047
                LTA, might be worth circling the next Bucks\Nets game. These teams had 171 FG attempts tonight. Unfortunately the Nets were shocking. I think it was the right play from a pace \ foul point of view. If we get a good number for the next outing on March 12th it just may be worth another shot at the over....

                Just my view anyway
                Comment
                • latinrus
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 08-01-10
                  • 11188

                  #5048
                  Originally posted by Atlfan12
                  0-3? Man, that was not what I was hoping for at all
                  well so far 0-2, the OKC total may hit, so just wait!
                  Comment
                  • jas19illini
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 10-27-10
                    • 682

                    #5049
                    Originally posted by alamo
                    LTA, might be worth circling the next Bucks\Nets game. These teams had 171 FG attempts tonight. Unfortunately the Nets were shocking. I think it was the right play from a pace \ foul point of view. If we get a good number for the next outing on March 12th it just may be worth another shot at the over....

                    Just my view anyway
                    The total might just open a little lower as well after tonight's under, which would be nice.
                    Comment
                    • CheeseHead
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 12-03-10
                      • 439

                      #5050
                      Has LTA won a game this year yet where he bought the hook? Not trying to be an ass or anything, just an observation that I had...seems like every time we have a -120 play where the hook was bought, the play loses.
                      Comment
                      • dlunc3
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 10-31-09
                        • 9129

                        #5051
                        Originally posted by jas19illini
                        How many bets have we lost in a row now that involved Houston? They seem to be our Achilles heel this season. :/
                        I was thinking utah...off the top of my head, 0-3 on the last three games betting utah ats
                        Comment
                        • jas19illini
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 10-27-10
                          • 682

                          #5052
                          Originally posted by dlunc3
                          I was thinking utah...off the top of my head, 0-3 on the last three games betting utah ats
                          Yeah I don't think Utah has been very kind to us either.
                          Comment
                          • alamo
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 02-21-09
                            • 7131

                            #5053
                            Booo yaka in OKC! Cash the easy over
                            Comment
                            • NYSportsGuy210
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 11-07-09
                              • 11347

                              #5054
                              Jazz on the road are a fade.....good at home. Simple as that. Houston also very strong at home. All signs points to Houston covering tonight.
                              Comment
                              • Overbettor
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 11-08-11
                                • 951

                                #5055
                                Originally posted by NYSportsGuy210
                                Jazz on the road are a fade.....good at home. Simple as that. Houston also very strong at home. All signs points to Houston covering tonight.
                                Why would you post this after the game??
                                Comment
                                • NYSportsGuy210
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-07-09
                                  • 11347

                                  #5056
                                  Originally posted by Overbettor
                                  Why would you post this after the game??

                                  Cause I don't understand why people would question this. It's hard enough to find solid trends but when you do you have to hold on to it. Even if it loses it's the right way to analyze things 85% of the time.
                                  Comment
                                  • jas19illini
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 10-27-10
                                    • 682

                                    #5057
                                    Originally posted by Overbettor
                                    Why would you post this after the game??
                                    Hindsight is always 20/20.
                                    Comment
                                    • dlunc3
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 10-31-09
                                      • 9129

                                      #5058
                                      Originally posted by NYSportsGuy210
                                      Cause I don't understand why people would question this. It's hard enough to find solid trends but when you do you have to hold on to it. Even if it loses it's the right way to analyze things 85% of the time.
                                      so you doubled up your bankroll on this game? congrats
                                      Comment
                                      • Love The Action
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-08-10
                                        • 10952

                                        #5059
                                        Originally posted by NYSportsGuy210
                                        Cause I don't understand why people would question this. It's hard enough to find solid trends but when you do you have to hold on to it. Even if it loses it's the right way to analyze things 85% of the time.
                                        Can you please explain how that "is the right way to analyze things 85% of the time." Please explain how you calculate the 85% number or what that comment even means. That makes absolutely no sense to me.

                                        On the road, utah was 4-8 ats heading into the game at houston. At home. Houston was 10-5 ats heading into last nights game. Please explain how based on those numbers houston is a winner as -7 favorites 85% of the time. I guarantee you cannot make that calculation because you are wrong and just throwing out an arbitrary number that you have no idea about calculating. Moreover, in my writeup I explained why I thought utah's road woes would not affect them in this game. They could have easily covered, but gave up over the last three minutes of the game after having the cover within their grasp. I ended up being wrong because they did not cover and thats the bottom line. Nonetheless, this was a value play and utah had great value at +7 and is a play I would make 100% of the time regardless of "trends." No biggie, onto the next one.

                                        Imho, trends are nothing more than fool's gold and will bury you long term. I am sure you will respond and say you have won with trends blah, blah, blah. However, there is a reason all these meaningless trends are splashed over every single gambling website like here and covers. The reason is that following ats trends is a sure way to lose your BR long term. The books are clearly not worried about such publicly available info because its already built into the spread.

                                        Now, as far as criticizing my utah play, I have no problem with that had you done so BEFORE the game. To do so afterwards is cowardish monday morning qb bs. I have noticed that you like to post comments about plays after they lose rather than before the game. Perhaps that helps your ego, I am not sure. However, I can only advise you to be careful about such timing because that is how you lose respect very fast. Anyone can "get it right" after the game, but it takes a lot more to get it right before the game starts. Please dont waste your time commenting about a play after the game because no one cares. If you have something to say about a play, say it before the game and explain your position so we can all discuss the relevant issues and hopefully learn from each other. Otherwise you come off as ignorant and someone to ignore.

                                        I look forward to seeing a positive contribution from you moving forward in discussing games before they start. Otherwise, you need not comment at all. Good luck to you on your monday plays.
                                        Comment
                                        • Love The Action
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-08-10
                                          • 10952

                                          #5060
                                          NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/18/2012 Recap

                                          1 - 2 = -1.3x

                                          NBA 2011-2012 Season

                                          78 - 65 = +14.45x

                                          Utah really let us down last night as our "swing" game. However, as I mentioned above, utah was a pure value play and one I would make again. We move onto Monday. Good luck.
                                          Comment
                                          • dmitean
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 03-30-11
                                            • 364

                                            #5061
                                            I'm not writing to rub it in somehow, just wanted to point out that Rockets for second or third season straight do amazingly well ATS wise playing off a loss at home. Don't remember the exact data, but tracked that last year and this trend was hitting about 70% success rate (if I remember correctly) and I think this season it been doing well as well.
                                            Just something that maybe we should keep in mind for future bets...
                                            Comment
                                            • NOREGRETS
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-12-10
                                              • 1326

                                              #5062
                                              Let's get 'em today bud!
                                              Comment
                                              • Love The Action
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 11-08-10
                                                • 10952

                                                #5063
                                                Originally posted by dmitean
                                                I'm not writing to rub it in somehow, just wanted to point out that Rockets for second or third season straight do amazingly well ATS wise playing off a loss at home. Don't remember the exact data, but tracked that last year and this trend was hitting about 70% success rate (if I remember correctly) and I think this season it been doing well as well.
                                                Just something that maybe we should keep in mind for future bets...
                                                Hmmmm.... Are you saying that a 70% number (which may or may not be accurate) over a small situational sample size of about 20 or so games is predictive of future success? If so, there are so many things wrong with that assumption that I couldnt possibly have time to break it down. Bottom line is that to be a truly significant and statistically relevant "trend" it must prove successful over a huge sample of plays (think 1,000 or more). Otherwise, its nothing more than a red herring imho.

                                                If you dont like a play because of an opposings trend, that's fine.....just don't play it. However, its going to take a thesis paper with relevant data to convince me and anyone else that understands the math behind sports investing that any of these statistically irrelevent ats trends are actually worth anything. The math says these trends are irrelevent. When math is proven wrong, please let me know.
                                                Comment
                                                • KYkid89
                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                  • 02-04-12
                                                  • 8

                                                  #5064
                                                  Let the haters hate. Your track record speaks for its self! Great call on the nugg/thunder game btw. Wonder if anybody had KD going for 51!

                                                  GL today
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Love The Action
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 11-08-10
                                                    • 10952

                                                    #5065
                                                    Originally posted by KYkid89
                                                    Let the haters hate. Your track record speaks for its self! Great call on the nugg/thunder game btw. Wonder if anybody had KD going for 51!

                                                    GL today
                                                    Its not hate...just discussion and I welcome different viewpoints. However, if those different viewpoints are not based in statistical relevancy, I am going to be a hard one to convince.

                                                    Regardless, I welcome the conversation as that is why I am here at sbr. We learn frim each other.....however, in this case I just cant agree with the opposing viewpoint because it is not based in fact, only hypothesis.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • BigBurk
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-25-11
                                                      • 3785

                                                      #5066
                                                      Already eyeing some plays for tonight LTA?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • absolutkaos
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 12-29-11
                                                        • 213

                                                        #5067
                                                        LTA what are you thinking about that MIN/DEN matchup? line is at 208 right now, both teams played hard last night, Denver to a tough OT game, and MIN a last second shot to win, and now travel to the high altitudes in Denver. "classic fatigue" spot? can you not see this one going under?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • dmitean
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 03-30-11
                                                          • 364

                                                          #5068
                                                          Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                          Its not hate...just discussion and I welcome different viewpoints. However, if those different viewpoints are not based in statistical relevancy, I am going to be a hard one to convince.

                                                          Regardless, I welcome the conversation as that is why I am here at sbr. We learn frim each other.....however, in this case I just cant agree with the opposing viewpoint because it is not based in fact, only hypothesis.
                                                          I agree that math and stats are important capping tools. But I always claim that it's best combined with other tools like trends, match ups, spots and so on.
                                                          Math and stats are blind to each team's individual approach.

                                                          For example, I see Houston trend that I mentioned, as something that makes sense. Good and proud team, will want to react to a bad loss and will approach the next game with a bit bigger awarness, motivation and so on.

                                                          Math and stats can't also cap something like a let down between two big games (if Orlando plays Boston for example on Sunday, Nets on Monday and Heat on Tuesday, it obvious what is the game there is the biggest chance to get overlooked by Magic).

                                                          I always like discussion and you have good and proven record, so it's always interesting to read an opinion of person that proved he can cap this league.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Love The Action
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-08-10
                                                            • 10952

                                                            #5069
                                                            Originally posted by absolutkaos
                                                            LTA what are you thinking about that MIN/DEN matchup? line is at 208 right now, both teams played hard last night, Denver to a tough OT game, and MIN a last second shot to win, and now travel to the high altitudes in Denver. "classic fatigue" spot? can you not see this one going under?
                                                            I could "see" every game on the board going under. However, I could also "see" every game going over as well.

                                                            Doesn't exactly narrow it down does it

                                                            In all seriousness, both of those teams play at a fast PACE. Denver is #1 and Minny is #3. Even though Minny plays solid defense this year, in fatigue spots defense can lag when both teams play at a naturally fast pace. Both teams are also at the top 10 of possession per game. When combined with pace, this is not an enticing matchup for the under.

                                                            I'm not saying the under won't hit, but I think there are better plays with more of an edge. Good luck in whatever you choose.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JM92
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-27-12
                                                              • 1140

                                                              #5070
                                                              I can, because Denver will try to run has hard as it can as usually even in the fatigue spot... they've got young lets and, most of all, lots of legs to say so. Without Nene and Gallo I feel like the Wolves will really have the advantage in the half-court situation and therefore Karl is gonna get them runin' again I believe. Otherwise I would've locked it.

                                                              I'm really liking Houston right now. Even on a back to back, they have a little revenge angle, Lowry is back and he played really nice yesterday and the Rockets won't be playing for two days now as the Grizz got a tough battle with the Sixers tommorow. still lookin into it though.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • iMpega
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 04-26-10
                                                                • 189

                                                                #5071
                                                                LTA, you mentioned you only have 1-5u plays, but you had some 15units plays last season. Have you changed that or will you have some 15u plays?

                                                                Regards
                                                                Comment
                                                                • BigBoi
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 04-01-11
                                                                  • 1084

                                                                  #5072
                                                                  If any of you guys play second half bets, all of LTAs plays have been money lately when it comes to that.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • JM92
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-27-12
                                                                    • 1140

                                                                    #5073
                                                                    Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                    I could "see" every game on the board going under. However, I could also "see" every game going over as well.

                                                                    Doesn't exactly narrow it down does it

                                                                    In all seriousness, both of those teams play at a fast PACE. Denver is #1 and Minny is #3. Even though Minny plays solid defense this year, in fatigue spots defense can lag when both teams play at a naturally fast pace. Both teams are also at the top 10 of possession per game. When combined with pace, this is not an enticing matchup for the under.

                                                                    I'm not saying the under won't hit, but I think there are better plays with more of an edge. Good luck in whatever you choose.
                                                                    Wow wow wow!

                                                                    What do you consider to be the difference between pace and possessions? I always read pace as the number of possession a team gets per game.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Love The Action
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 11-08-10
                                                                      • 10952

                                                                      #5074
                                                                      NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/20/2012

                                                                      Play #1

                                                                      Trail Blazers/Lakers under (180) 1x (Locked)

                                                                      Writeup to come. I don't want to risk losing out on the 180. With that said, if you are adventurous, you may want to wait as it might get back up to 181 before dropping back down for a closer I expect at or under 179.5. I have this game set at 177 and might add to this play down the road. I am rolling with the under for 1x right now. Good luck.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • absolutkaos
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 12-29-11
                                                                        • 213

                                                                        #5075
                                                                        Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                        I could "see" every game on the board going under. However, I could also "see" every game going over as well.

                                                                        Doesn't exactly narrow it down does it

                                                                        In all seriousness, both of those teams play at a fast PACE. Denver is #1 and Minny is #3. Even though Minny plays solid defense this year, in fatigue spots defense can lag when both teams play at a naturally fast pace. Both teams are also at the top 10 of possession per game. When combined with pace, this is not an enticing matchup for the under.

                                                                        I'm not saying the under won't hit, but I think there are better plays with more of an edge. Good luck in whatever you choose.
                                                                        Comment
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