Cash Orlando. They win OUTRIGHT by 13 !
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Worst game of the season. And they could've still won it if they had hit their easy jumpers throughout the game. Only Parker played for the Spurs basically. Did anyone else noticed how he had like 30 after 3 quarters and 0 jumpers? That's just ridiculous.Comment -
Generally, paying -120 in an NBA is NEVER a +ev play. While it's technically possible, the situations are rare and would most likely involve an early -120 buy and dramatic line movement that has you beating the closer by 4 points or so.
From a pure mathematical perspective, it is not a recommended move. With that said, however, in certain circumstances -- this was now my 5th time this season -- I will do it. I personally hate to be "hooked" to such an extent, that under certain circumstances I will buy that insurance.
Let's take a look at the OKC/GS game last night. As I stated, I was debating paying -120 and taking GS at +3 or just rolling with the ML. Once I was able to get +120 on the ML, that was enough value compared to then-available Pinny number that I had to pull the trigger. However, had I bought that hook in that situation, I would have pushed.
Bottom line is that out of the 5 times I paid -120 this year, I pushed one time, lost a couple and won a couple. Although not mathematically accurate, I look it at from practical perspective and figure "since I already saved myself a full 1x on that push, then I am already ahead of the game and can afford to buy the hook from time to time when I think it wise."
Like I said, it's my money and if I choose to knowingly disobey the mathematical rules of sports investing because of a "gut" feeling, then I can't really regret when it loses. Oh well, I paid an extra 0.1x. If someone is paying -120 in the NBA on a daily basis, then that is stupid. In this case, I do it on rare occasions and the effect on my overall BR has been positive. I'm not recommending others pay -120 regularly, but I don't view it as a big deal when it's every once in a while.
But to answer your question, no, tonight's Philly play was not +EV. No hard feelings buddy, I hope that explains my thinking behind it, but I really don't see why it's such a big deal.
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This just seems to really contradict your whole approach, that's all.
Generally, paying -120 in an NBA is NEVER a +ev play. While it's technically possible, the situations are rare and would most likely involve an early -120 buy and dramatic line movement that has you beating the closer by 4 points or so.
From a pure mathematical perspective, it is not a recommended move. With that said, however, in certain circumstances -- this was now my 5th time this season -- I will do it. I personally hate to be "hooked" to such an extent, that under certain circumstances I will buy that insurance.
Let's take a look at the OKC/GS game last night. As I stated, I was debating paying -120 and taking GS at +3 or just rolling with the ML. Once I was able to get +120 on the ML, that was enough value compared to then-available Pinny number that I had to pull the trigger. However, had I bought that hook in that situation, I would have pushed.
Bottom line is that out of the 5 times I paid -120 this year, I pushed one time, lost a couple and won a couple. Although not mathematically accurate, I look it at from practical perspective and figure "since I already saved myself a full 1x on that push, then I am already ahead of the game and can afford to buy the hook from time to time when I think it wise."
Like I said, it's my money and if I choose to knowingly disobey the mathematical rules of sports investing because of a "gut" feeling, then I can't really regret when it loses. Oh well, I paid an extra 0.1x. If someone is paying -120 in the NBA on a daily basis, then that is stupid. In this case, I do it on rare occasions and the effect on my overall BR has been positive. I'm not recommending others pay -120 regularly, but I don't view it as a big deal when it's every once in a while.
But to answer your question, no, tonight's Philly play was not +EV. No hard feelings buddy, I hope that explains my thinking behind it, but I really don't see why it's such a big deal.
My point is this LTA, i get what you're trying to do here. You want to get the best numbers possible. The problem is that there were 3s with the 76ers at one point and 3s with GS last night too. If you want to beat the market, you need to anticipate line moves before they happen. I know you haven't bought points often but you know I had to come in after you called out your "hater" when you made the play earlier.
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I place a big portion of the blame on Doug Collins, which is rare... Parker killed them all night. Not once did he slide over and allow Iggy the chance to guard him. Sure, iggy traditionally doesnt guard the opposing pg, but after what he did to kobe the other night, and after parker was abusing everyone else, it was a MUST to slide iggy over.. Obviously the sixers couldnt hit a shot tonight... but that was not the only problem. They did not deserve to win.Comment -
When I get home from work, I have to take the dog out, change the baby, give him some dinner and about 5 other things. The funny part is that during most of those activities, I have my phone by me with the odds page on and I'm periodically checking for line movement. If I see the number I want, I jump on it and try to post it as soon as I can when I'm done with the "real world." In this case, it was with at least 10 minutes left to bet. My book stays open till 9:15 for 9pm games since they never start on time and I am shocked that your book does not. If you couldn't get it, I apologize but I did the best I could for you. Remember, I'm not looking for anyone to tail me. I'm here to be able to talk about other guys who invest in sports. I have no other outlet for that. Instead of tailing, just use my thread as a reference against your own plays. Good luck.
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I didn't name anyone in particular, but I guess you jumped up to accept the offerThis just seems to really contradict your whole approach, that's all.
My point is this LTA, i get what you're trying to do here. You want to get the best numbers possible. The problem is that there were 3s with the 76ers at one point and 3s with GS last night too. If you want to beat the market, you need to anticipate line moves before they happen. I know you haven't bought points often but you know I had to come in after you called out your "hater" when you made the play earlier.
I agree. It absolutely does contradict my whole approach, but I tried to explain why. As far as anticipating line movement, you're preaching to the choir. However, like I said in the above post, I got a life outside of sports investing and I can only run them through my model and cap them when I can find the time. In this case, I missed the 3's but felt it was worth paying for it anyway because of it's potential importance.Comment -
LTA - any plays on the late game?
Can get the over at 194 which looks good.Comment -
Wow the Dallas game is on course for over 90 shot attempts in the 1h aloneComment -
There is no doubt LTA that you are a very busy guy...with an infant to boot.
One idea is something that you do sometimes. I don't know how long it takes for your write-ups...obv the longer the write-up the more time it takes. But it has to take 10-15 minutes. If you could just say "Betting Philly write-up to come" I would get the best line I can on the game. We could pick up a lot of players to join the game. After all, we Love The Action.
That is also why I played Philly 2nd half. I contend that still was a good bet even though it lost.
And Btw, I still root for your plays when I miss playing them too. I take no happiness in this group doing anything but winning. Overall, some very cool people join this thread.
Catch
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Im in a little shock at the number of shot attempts by both Dallas and Denver. They were runnin and gunnin like the Warriors of old. I hate sayin it by our under could be dead unless we get a 35-37pt qtr and even then....Comment -
Played Under 96 for the second half just for fun.
This pace cannot continue...can it?Comment -
Dallas are taking the piss now.Comment -
nice picks LTA!
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jeez lta thought you were supposed to 3-0 everynight?
just retire why dont ya!
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good thing about LTA is 'when it rains it pours' does not apply. when its good you keep a smooth train going. when its bad you are discipline and dont chase.
thats why we will be very profitable at years end
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NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/8/2012 Recap
1 - 2 = -1.3x
NBA 2011-2012 Season
64 - 54 = +10.05x
Typical peaks and valleys as we go from a solid hot streak of 12-3 for a profit of +11.5x to a frigid cold streak 1-5 and a loss of 4.7x. This is when you just need to buckle up and ride it out as your BR grows and shrinks. Get hot, give a portion back, get hot again, give another portion back, so on and so forth until you have a nice little profit total at the end of the year. As long as our hot streaks are better than our cold streaks, we will do all right. Time to heat back up a bit and get rolling again. GL.Comment -
less than 18pts in 5mins ??? I've seen it done. 1 "quiet" minute as I like to call em and we have a shot ere in Dallas... I'd certainly take that after 2qtrs !Comment -
Al Harrington makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ty Lawson assists) with 2m to go. That fcker couldve sealed it. If he missed that i think both teams cruise to the lineComment -
I really like the Celtics tomorow. There finally hitting there stride and there second unit is 200X better than lakers second unit.Comment -
LTA do you have an opinion on which way the Rockets/Suns total will move?Comment -
Can't believe ppl are complaining about the time LTA's posts his picks. You can usually grab a similar line via live betting, if not better.
I'm kinda pissed off I didn't pull the trigger on Duke ML tonight. All I had to do was click "submit". Couldn't do it.
I believe LTA said earlier in the thread those situations usually mean it's a good pick, haha.
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good stuff lta.. missed the orl (was already on miami
)and dal under bets, but was able to jump on the dallas 2nd half under and cash in on that.. keep it up man, that next winning streak is right aroung the corner
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Anyone have any links or tracked numbers that they can post here which shows the stats of the Celts offense with Rondo and without Rondo so we can compare his recent impact? Thanks.Comment
