LTA's NBA Plays

[SoxSide Irish]

i hate the warriors ever since they blew that memphis bet

[Donnie Brasco]

line hasn't changed at pinny in the last hour or so, unless i missed one and it went right back to +2 -106

Tcwoods was referring to total, up from 204 @open to 208.5

[TC Woods]

line hasn't changed at pinny in the last hour or so, unless i missed one and it went right back to +2 -106

Line now at 209 at bodog

[pacocn]

Lta, you waiting for the public to drill that line up to 2.5?

[Catchn_Picks]

The steam is predicting that OKC's road schedule will result in tired legs and no D tonight.

But tired legs also misses jump shots.

[Love The Action]

Lta, please tell me you like the Warriors tonight

Yes. I will be on GS either at +3 (-120) or the ML at +120. Right now, my local that follows Pinny has +2 and +110. My other local that follows Legends has +2.5 and +120. That +120 is great value, so I might just lay a full 1x on that. Otherwise, I may put 0.50x at +3(-120) plus another 0.50x on the ML at +120.

I will decide relatively soon. GL tonight.

[YouHave2outs]

Line now at 209 at bodog

i have no clue why the headscratch symbol is so annoying to me. probably because it is most often used in a misunderstanding like this one. it should have been obvious i was referring to the spread when i mentioned +2 -106. sorry to confuse you


glad to see you are on gs tonight lta!!!

[Catchn_Picks]

Already on it. Love it when that happens.

ML is an interesting option tho.

Hmmmm

[SoxSide Irish]

Love the play, I can see Thunder conceding early after any big runs by golden state

[TC Woods]

Yes. I will be on GS either at +3 (-120) or the ML at +120. Right now, my local that follows Pinny has +2 and +110. My other local that follows Legends has +2.5 and +120. That +120 is great value, so I might just lay a full 1x on that. Otherwise, I may put 0.50x at +3(-120) plus another 0.50x on the ML at +120.

I will decide relatively soon. GL tonight.

I did just that... was able to get ML on GS @ +120. Also took the +3 @ -120

GL all

[fitguy67]

It's...."Help out the knucklehead time"

Someone i know really well...doesn't know how to quote from a previous post...er, for example say he wants to quote just the "glad to see you are on gs tonight lta!!!" bit from post#3717...I, er, am too busy to explain it to him now...thanks

[Catchn_Picks]

Good play TC.

5D and BetUS both at +115.

[fitguy67]

btw, the same friend wants to know what it means if it burns when he pisses...

[Catchn_Picks]

It's...."Help out the knucklehead time"

Someone i know really well...doesn't know how to quote from a previous post...er, for example say he wants to quote just the "glad to see you are on gs tonight lta!!!" bit from post#3717...I, er, am too busy to explain it to him now...thanks

click the quote button and it will auto you to another page with the quote already there....then you can post below the quote.

[SoxSide Irish]

Just quote the whole thing and delete the parts you dont want

[Pick'nParlays]

took some props on ellis and curry over the points

also took first half tt over 51 (gsw)

after the warriors collapse in memphis.... i will sit out a full game bet. i feel they should catch okc sleeping but there 4th quarter play is atrocious.

[fitguy67]

i tried that b4...hit quote...and it gives all the previous posts...but not how to select so i did the usual right-clik select and copy thing...and all i got was something that looked like spaghetti, lot's of embedded codes etc...i really don't understand forum-ware

[fitguy67]

i tried that b4...hit quote...and it gives all the previous posts...but not how to select so i did the usual right-clik select and copy thing...and all i got was something that looked like spaghetti, lot's of embedded codes etc...i really don't understand forum-ware

ok...great...i think

[fitguy67]

thanks guyz...helps us to while away some time while we wait for GSW to get bak to +2.5 -110...i've been waiting for 2hours myself

[Catchn_Picks]

ok...great...i think

[pacocn]

i hate the warriors ever since they blew that memphis bet

There is a
chance that you will hate them more, if you take Okc tonight. Bol on your play.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/7/2012

Play #1

Warriors ML (+120) 1x (Locked)

I am going to step out a bit on this play and go with the ML rather than play the spread. I had contemplated paying the -120 for +3 or putting a 1/2 unit on both the +3 (-120) with a 1/2 unit on the ML +120. However, value wise, the best value is the ML at +120. Pinny opened this game at +3 on the spread and +122 on the ML and is now at +2 and +113, despite almost 80% of all bets for the spread and the ML on OKC. Therefore, being able to beat the current and possible closing Pinny ML by 7 cents is worth more to me than getting the +2.5 (-110) or the +3(-120). In this game, I think that GS even wins outright or loses by 4 or more. I do not think the spread will come into play. This game is a very bad spot for OKC, with them being on a b2b, 4 in 5 and 5 in 7. With GS coming in off 2 days of rest, I think we see more effort out of the Warriors, especially considering they are playing with revenge and OKC is coming off an OT game where it's 3 best players (Durant, Westbrook and Harden) all played over 40 minutes. OKC is coming off a revenge game win and they follow this game with a game against Sacramento. I think OKC will be less than motivated in this game and if GS is able to take control late in the game, I don't think OKC will have the energy or motivation to fight back. Statistically speaking, OKC has the edge in most categories. However, there are some areas where the Warriors have the advantage or are very close to OKC. For example, OKC and GS have very similar EFG% at .511 to .504, TS% 111% to 106%, Floor % 50% to 48%, Fast break points per game 16 to 14, etc. On defense, OKC is a decidedly better defensive team. However, defense is effected by fatigue and I think OKC's fatigue will keep them from playing their best defense tonight. In addition, GS has a HUGE advantage in turnovers on both offense on defense and that will be key tonight with OKC in a fatigue spot and possibly playing sloppy ball. GS has a TOV% ranked 13th to OKC's 29th rating and on defense GS's TOV% is rated 11th overall to OKC's 26th ranking. I think that OKC's fatigue will keep GS in the game and I trust GS to have some pride and pull out this win. I know we got burned with GS against Memphis in a similar spot, but I just can't imagine them blowing such a lead again at home. If you look at the ref assignments of Adams, Richardson and Willard, you will find 3 guys who generally favor home dogs between 0-4 points throughout their career which gives us favorable refs for this play. GS is playing with revenge tonight and should bring maximum effort, while OKC really doesn't need the win. In the NBA, you need to "cap" effort just as much as the stats. In this case, I think the effort will be in the Warriors' favor and I am rolling with GS on the ML for 1x. Good luck.

[Dexter]

In the NBA, you need to "cap" effort just as much as the stats. In this case, I think the effort will be in the Warriors' favor and I am rolling with GS on the ML for 1x. Good luck.

[dlunc3]

You are no doubt better at breaking down games then me lta.. but I personally think if you wanna take gsw, it would be beneficial to look for a good live game spot.. okc is 4-2 on b2b games this season and gs is 1-1 coming off 2 days rest and 6-10 coming off 1 day rest... not to mention their home record is 6-7 in comparison to okc's 10-4 road record..so i am not sure of the home court adv factor or fatigue factor here (tho they did have a long hard fought game just last night). definitely am not saying you are making the wrong play, but am looking forward to seeing your thoughts behind this one


edit: i see you posted your writeup as i was typing... i will read it now

[Catchn_Picks]

Man LTA, win or lose, your write-ups are without equal. No BS. BetUS just jumped to +3 and +130...yipee.

Anyone with an account...grab it.

Someone must have bet $50 on OKC and moved the line.

[dlunc3]

Solid write up yet again lta.. made some good points..

with that said, wouldnt you think gs tt over 102 is a better play? if you think gs is going to win, wouldnt you expect them to go over 102? with okc puting up slightly over 100 per night, you would have to think they reach that mark vs a bottom 3 defensive team in GS... so esp if you see gs winning, going over 102 seems like a safe bet to me as it can still be a winner even if gs loses..

Either way, thanks for the thoughts and write up and bol

[Catchn_Picks]

Solid write up yet again lta.. made some good points..

with that said, wouldnt you think gs tt over 102 is a better play? if you think gs is going to win, wouldnt you expect them to go over 102? with okc puting up slightly over 100 per night, you would have to think they reach that mark vs a bottom 3 defensive team in GS... so esp if you see gs winning, going over 102 seems like a safe bet to me as it can still be a winner even if gs loses..

Either way, thanks for the thoughts and write up and bol

I tried to chase 102 all day and it got away from me. All I see is 103 right now. I hate getting the worst line so I just jumped off the search.

[Love The Action]

Man LTA, win or lose, your write-ups are without equal. No BS. BetUS just jumped to +3 and +130...yipee.

Anyone with an account...grab it.

Someone must have bet $50 on OKC and moved the line.

Pinny is now juicing the +2 at -113, which is huge, plus they dropped the ML all the way down to +107. If you got +130, that is AWESOME! GL buddy

[jas19illini]

Just a reminder to revisit that post about line movement from earlier LTA. I'm sure I'm not the only curious one.

[Catchn_Picks]

Now...

Let's go Warriors. OKC, you've got to be gassed by the second half.

[Catchn_Picks]

OKC missing open shots, dunks and other plays that I hope means tired legs. Too early to tell, but I likee so far early.

[Donkeys2012]

I dont like what I see and im on GS also. Shoot 70% durant cold and are now behind. May try to jump on live line to hedge out.

[dlunc3]

You are no doubt better at breaking down games then me lta.. but I personally think if you wanna take gsw, it would be beneficial to look for a good live game spot.. okc is 4-2 on b2b games this season and gs is 1-1 coming off 2 days rest and 6-10 coming off 1 day rest... not to mention their home record is 6-7 in comparison to okc's 10-4 road record..so i am not sure of the home court adv factor or fatigue factor here (tho they did have a long hard fought game just last night). definitely am not saying you are making the wrong play, but am looking forward to seeing your thoughts behind this one


edit: i see you posted your writeup as i was typing... i will read it now

just jumped on gs +4 live and ml is at +183... hopefully works out

now need to gs keep up the scoring and cash the over + win the game

thanks again for your insight and thoughts

[Catchn_Picks]

just jumped on gs +4 live and ml at +183... hopefully works out

now need to gs keep up the scoring and cash the over + win the game

thanks again for your insight and thoughts

Wow...sick ML bet...congrats.

[mikea33]

Wow this game is gonna go iver 300 haha