great call on the lakers under!
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Thanks LTA. The Lakers under got me out of a jam.
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Well done!Comment -
NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/10/2012 Recap
2 - 2 = -0.2x
NBA 2011-2012 Season
29 - 20 = +8.35x
A very frustrating card as we miss a 3-1 night by 1/2 point in the Sac/Philly over, I was unable to play the Portland over because my computer died and I failed to play my lean on the over in the Cavs/Jazz game, all of which cost us 3x in profit. That is -ev. Nonetheless, every day starts fresh and so we move on. Good luck on Wednesday.Comment -
Dam LT that SAC game was a bad result. Although I won, I think I got lucky, but after some of the beats I took this bowl season I'll take it. To make up for it you'll get a kick out of me taking the under on my Memphis play when I was supposed to take the over so I thought I just barely won, but I actually lost...it was only 1u play, but
on me. Oh well, I'm getting a feel for these totals and it looks like I cashed the LAL game with you guys.
I've left a lot of money with some of these totals the last week and it looks like the books are going to adjust as well as the play so we'll probably have some money to make on the over because most people will just start blind betting the unders. Actually going into tonight only 4 teams had more than 50% of their favor the over...SAC was one of those teams. I would look for that trend to continue with them as Keith Smart as coach...he's a Don Nelson disciple so expect a lot of offense and little defense with them (well in theory)
Keep it up and on to tomorrow.
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First, let me say what up to MBP! He is a great contributor to SBR and one of the few voices that I give a great deal of respect and deference to.
With respect to the article, yes I am aware and have adjusted. However, so have the books. I am generally an under player in the NBA and you will see that more as the season progresses. However, in most of these fatigue spots, the books are overadjusting in favor of the under creating a large amount of value on the over. The hard part is picking your spots where the value will evidence itself on the court. I actually have a profitable record picking overs so far this season, so I feel that I have made the proper adjustments.
If you look at all of those factors in the article, you should ask yourself whether these are likely to continue for the long term or if they will eventually start to regress to their long term league averages. The answer is the latter rather than the former.
I always look to be proactive in my adjustments rather than reactive. Consequently, I try to figure out what the trends will be next few weeks as opposed to analyzing the trends from the past few weeks. I want to be ahead of the game. As soon as you see all of these articles popping up about the trend related to the lack of scoring, that is generally a signal that the same trend will not continue for much longer. The factors which have led to the lack of scoring will not continue forever. The question is when the tide will turn in favor of higher scoring games.
Generally, to start any NBA season, scoring is down when compared to mid-season averages. In this season, that trend is even more pronounced because of the lack of a preseason. Consequently, we are at the stage now where we would be at from the beginning of a normal regular season. That is why you may see this lack of scoring trend continue for the immediate future. However, the tide is going to turn at some point and I would rather be ahead of the game with a prediction of when that will occur as opposed to behind in the game just hoping it continues.
If you don't stay ahead of the books, you are doomed to be beaten by them.
great reply many thanks. I am a total noob but kind of good with statistics. So was just wondering how you adjust for such factors. Seems difficult. Great read
Tailing you as usual
Keep up the good work!Comment -
LTA, where can I find your College Basketball Picks?Comment -
Great play with the Lakers/Suns Under. Let's shoot for a sweep tonight. Thanks a million and keep up the hard work!
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Went 2-1 with a profit of .91 units with a push on the Sac/Phil over pick. Thanks LTA.
Good Luck my friend. Doing a great job.
jckComment -
NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/11/12
Play #1
Wizards/Bulls under (180.5) 1x (Locked)
Jumped on this right at the open. I expect an ugly game. Both teams are in a fatigue spot and I usually like to back the over in such spots, but I know the bulls very well and they have typically shoot poorly with a slow pace in similar situational spots in the past. Both teams won yesteday and shot very well. Therefore, with the fatigue and liklihood of a letdown, I think this is a great spot for the under. I have this game set at 178.5, so not a ton of value but I like this more for the qualitative factors and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
I like the play on the under there LTA.
One of my early leans is the OVER in the PHI/NY game. Should be a good pace to this game and at least no defense on the NY side. Also, PHI is on the end of a b2b2b.
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That's a +ev move as you got a great price for that 1/2 point.
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Just because that's what people say, doesn't make it true.
Personally, I just don't have time and cbb is too much work. Too many schools, player and coach turnover, dont know ref tendencies and the scheduling does not provide for consistent angles or player performances.
I prefer to concentrate on mlb and nba and work to perfect my models and capping for max profit rather than wear myself thin trying to do too much. I model football for the challenge and fun as a bridge between mlb and nba. I think cbb would just be a distraction, plus I would need to develop a model from scratch. No thanks.
Just my opinion though.
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Will the knicks drop to -3.5?
If anyone sees that number at their book, please let us know. Thanks.Comment -
+EV means an event or in this case a bet with positive expected value, while -EV is just the opposite, an event with a negative expected value.
A quick poker example: you go all in on the flop, somebody calls. Based on your cards, you have 80% chance of winning, your opponent has 20%. His call was a -EV decision, as although he might win this time, in the long run this would be a bad decision. If the all in was 100$, then in this case he has 20% chance of winning a pot of 200, and 80% of losing the pot of 200, making his EV -120$.
(Yes, I know I didn't take lots of poker related stuff into account, but it was a plain demonstration)Comment -
Scary game as a Knick fan
. The Sixers are playing as a unit, Synergy, and the Knicks have two big time scorers with no orchestrator. They have had the easiest schedule in the league thus far as well. Gonna take a big time effort from Carmelo/Stat here as Philly also has the superior bench. Philly won in a blowout last night and their vet's have not logged overwhelming minutes in their b2b games. Not like it is a heavy travel situation either........they had 2 games at home and are a hop skip and a jump from NYC.
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I'm sure LTA can do a much better job explaining this, but I'll try and condense it down into a nutshell.
"EV" means "Expected Value," and it is tied to expected returns over time. Betting on a coin flip, where the outcome is exactly 50/50 over time, and getting even 1:1, or +100 odds on your bet would be a neutral EV play. Over time, you are expected to come out exactly even.
If you made the same bet on the coin flip, but you could find someone to pay you odds of 2:1, or +200, you would come out ahead over time, and that bet would always be +EV. If the bookie wanted to charge you -110 odds, typical for an against the spread bet, it would be -EV. Over time, that extra juice would cost you money on a bet that only wins half the time.
LTA can clarify much better and also explain how his models and system apply to EV. Thanks for your picks and knowledgeable approach! We need better examples of people like you who follow bankroll management and real handicapping. Keep up the good work!Comment -
Damn Bulls total just jumped to 182.5 (-110).Comment -
Sh*t, my book has already jumped to 182.5 on the bulls game.Comment -
Wizards/Bulls locked in at u183. Is this line going to continue to move?Comment -
I locked in at 182 1/2 thinking it was the high water mark...............
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Yeah Man this pick is wonderful..
Bulls make hard D in their home court,Wizards should score around 70-80 points..
Good luck LTA!!Comment -
Play #2
76'ers/Knicks over (195.5) 1x (Locked)
I could have had 194.5, but my wager would not go through when the steam hit. Nevertheless, I like this play up to 197. The sixers are playing very fast efficient offensive basketball ranked top 10 in PACE and top 3 in OEFF . However, they are in a fatigue spot which I think hurts their solid defense tonight against a similarly fast paced offensive team. The knicks are rested and I expect them to run. However, philly is so deep, I dont think the knicks can shut them down with their improving defense. The refs are phillips, fehr and richardson, all who generally favor the over. Last season, this matchup did not see a total under 206 and I think a 10 point adjustment is just too much. I have this game set at 200, giving us solid value on the over. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
in vegasinsider i see 65% drom the bets is on Under but steel the line is keep jumping up..
look like WIZ-TOR game last night,most of the bets go on tornto and steel the line jump..
very very strange..
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Not worried about the line move on the bulls under. It pisses me off, but the market expects more offense like last night from these teams. I do not. I am usually on the other side of these moves, so this is a bit annoying now two days on a row. Only time will tell. Gotta get back to work. Good luck to all.Comment -
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hawes is questionable too for this one...could be a major factor with chandler nd amare insideComment
