LTA's NBA Plays

[RoagBettor]

Just wanted to give my two cents on the RAS/market discussion from earlier in the thread.

First of all, I think having a "following" is a relevant market force. You don't create or maintain a following unless you win. Secondly, there are enough market forces unrelated to RAS out there to correct overreactions or lines that get out of whack. This is demonstrated by how much line movement there is on games that RAS has no release on. So the margins we beat the closing line by on average can be attriubted to being on the right side most of the time, not just because we have a big following. Lastly, I would be confident that our WNBA lifetime win rate (against gameday widely available lines) compares similarly if not favorably with any private group/syndicate out there.

With all of that said, I don't think any independent handicapper who has shown some level of past success should automatically get off their play because they are against RAS (or some other long term winning handicapper). What you should understand though, and this goes for everyone (including us), is that when long term winning handicappers are against each other (assuming at the same line), both handicappers win rates will (have to) go down, and at least one of the two (if not both) handicappers won't be profitable in that subset. So it probably is not a good idea to add to your wager in these situations, unless there has been significant line movement or you think you are sitting on some critical non-market info/analysis.

Good advice. However, just to clarify further, that's assuming each play you put out is rated the same strength. In reality, someone could fade one of your plays for 1 unit and lose, but fade another of your plays for 5 units and win. We've had this discussion before - winning % is obviously very important (and most important if you're flat betting), but at the end of the day it's how much money you've made that counts.

Keep up the good work this season.

[Love The Action]

Just wanted to give my two cents on the RAS/market discussion from earlier in the thread.

First of all, I think having a "following" is a relevant market force. You don't create or maintain a following unless you win. Secondly, there are enough market forces unrelated to RAS out there to correct overreactions or lines that get out of whack. This is demonstrated by how much line movement there is on games that RAS has no release on. So the margins we beat the closing line by on average can be attriubted to being on the right side most of the time, not just because we have a big following. Lastly, I would be confident that our WNBA lifetime win rate (against gameday widely available lines) compares similarly if not favorably with any private group/syndicate out there.

With all of that said, I don't think any independent handicapper who has shown some level of past success should automatically get off their play because they are against RAS (or some other long term winning handicapper). What you should understand though, and this goes for everyone (including us), is that when long term winning handicappers are against each other (assuming at the same line), both handicappers win rates will (have to) go down, and at least one of the two (if not both) handicappers won't be profitable in that subset. So it probably is not a good idea to add to your wager in these situations, unless there has been significant line movement or you think you are sitting on some critical non-market info/analysis.

I would agree. Although, as someone who puts a great deal of work into his craft like I do, if I feel I have a strong play to begin with that is only provided more value by the steam caused by RAS, then I do not necessarily feel that adding a modest 0.50x - 1x to that play is dead money. At the end of the day, even the best services/cappers are going to lose 40% of the time and if you don't believe in yourself as a capper you have already lost. However, after researching the RAS effect on the market, I would not be one to assert that fading RAS is a profitable proposition.

I must admit to my own ignorance, because when I had the above-referenced discussion on this issue I was not fully aware of the breadth of RAS's market presence in WNBA. Shame on me...if I am going to play the WNBA, I need to be aware of such controlling market forces. However, as a dad, husband, career-orientated professional and capper of MLB, NBA, NFL and NCAAF, I spend all my sports investing time working on my own models, processes and capping techniques. This is my first year playing WNBA and I do not follow the services, preferring to do the work myself. Researching RAS was a project that I recently embarked upon after the original discussion and I was impressed.

Now that I have researched the issue and understand the wide reach of RAS and the market forces caused thereby, I would retract some of my previous statements on the relevancy of RAS' market forces within the WNBA market. RAS' WNBA success has been unrivaled, at least when it comes to sports services.

With that said, however, I would not retract my original statement which held that if RAS is making plays based on non-market info, then those picks do hold more weight than anyone's model, systems, trends, etc. and should be followed (almost blindly). Whereas, if RAS is using the same methods as most other cappers, I would not give the resulting picks as much deference. So in weighing RAS' market influence, it is difficult to determine if RAS' steam is the result of non-market info which should be followed, or another metric which may not be as strong or unique to RAS.

Finally, in WNBA especially, I believe there is no factor as important as the number you bet in relation to the efficiency of the closing line. One of the problems I have encountered that I have not had to face in other sports markets is the inability to bet opening numbers. This has resulted in a frustrating inability to beat the closer in WNBA, which is something I pride myself on in the other markets I play. Because both of my locals do not open their WNBA lines until around noon of game day each day, I am left to bet stale numbers on a total that may have moved as much as 5 points after a syndicate and/or RAS has had its effect on the market. Based on my recap of all plays I have made so far this season, 12 of my losses were by 3 points or less and would have been wins had I been able to be opening or near opening lines. That is a crazy amount and has made me realize that I cannot play WNBA on a daily basis when all the value has been sucked out of the available lines. Consequently, I have decided to only spot play WNBA from here on out because I am not interested in losing money on stale lines.

Moving forward, I hope everyone can continue to make some money in WNBA this season and that most certainly includes RAS. Perhaps it's time I start to tail a few RAS plays myself...but only if there is still value in the play...

Good luck in the future.

[MrXYZ]

Line movements in the WNBA are plain nuts & sometimes offer some terrific opportunities. My book dropped Indiana from -10 @-110 to -8.5 @-105 against Tulsa, of all teams lol. I got a few units before they moved it up again. Gotta wonder who was on the other side, but just happy this one cashed in with a blowout result.

[ebemiss]

With that said, however, I would not retract my original statement which held that if RAS is making plays based on non-market info, then those picks do hold more weight than anyone's model, systems, trends, etc. and should be followed (almost blindly). Whereas, if RAS is using the same methods as most other cappers, I would not give the resulting picks as much deference. So in weighing RAS' market influence, it is difficult to determine if RAS' steam is the result of non-market info which should be followed, or another metric which may not be as strong or unique to RAS.

What does it matter? Non market info/market info, you are just talking out of the side or your mouth. Their handicapping method is better than yours. YOU should never fade them until you produce winners. It's not difficult at all. Your method produces losing units, they have a winning record and a profit..Once again, you start to understand and admit you've made a mistake and then sound ridiculous. Can't totally bring yourself to admit you don't have a clue.

Pretending to know what you are doing in this sport is worse than not knowing. You basically think your methods, as you put it, are the same as most other cappers. That part you got right. They are, most cappers lose bad in the WNBA.

RAS and other successful WNBA bettors aren't using what you are using, THEREFORE MAKING IT, NON MARKET INFO. (Your term). You should always assume it's NON MARKET, until you win.

You get it. They are not arriving at the same plays and predictions as you are. So like I mentioned more than a month ago, when they play a game, and you are on the other side you won't win consistently.

Finally, in WNBA especially, I believe there is no factor as important as the number you bet in relation to the efficiency of the closing line. One of the problems I have encountered that I have not had to face in other sports markets is the inability to bet opening numbers. This has resulted in a frustrating inability to beat the closer in WNBA, which is something I pride myself on in the other markets I play. Because both of my locals do not open their WNBA lines until around noon of game day each day, I am left to bet stale numbers on a total that may have moved as much as 5 points after a syndicate and/or RAS has had its effect on the market. Based on my recap of all plays I have made so far this season, 12 of my losses were by 3 points or less and would have been wins had I been able to be opening or near opening lines. That is a crazy amount and has made me realize that I cannot play WNBA on a daily basis when all the value has been sucked out of the available lines. Consequently, I have decided to only spot play WNBA from here on out because I am not interested in losing money on stale lines.

Horse crap. RAS hasn't released a play yet until the line has settled the following day. In fact, just about every play has been at peak value the following morning/afternoon. That being said, it's usually 1 game NOT ALL OF THEM.

IF your model is good, release your play the day before, well before RAS does. You are supposedly here to help others, why wouldn't you release a winner ahead of time if you know/think RAS may be on the same side? Even if YOU can't get the line, why wouldn't you post a winner based on a line at a book, right now! You are using the same market info, correct?

They aren't betting into any different lines than you. You basically say that every capper has "market" info value. Why aren't you winning then? You aren't posting plays anymore because you are losing.

The only number that moves more than a point, is a game they bet after the line is sent out at most books and sits overnight. They have the most influence on the market, PERIOD. Nobody else is moving these lines especially since they stopped sending out plays every day a week ago.

No one is getting pinnacle opening lines, give me a break. Most big books and locals get the numbers after they settle. Your "stale" numbers theory/excuse is laughable. Everyone's lines are stale.

Plus everyone loses close games. It's funny we only remember to post the bad beats, not the fortunate or lucky winners. Posting how you lost close games sounds like someone trying to make himself feel better or make excuses.

Stick to baseball, it looks like you have half a clue. In the WNBA however, the more you type or pick the worse you sound.

Basically in a forum that starting out with a dozen or so, know it all's, posting WNBA picks in the beginning. It's now down to about 3-4 who actually post winners.......
[/quote]

[burgi]

Good luck!

[bleek88]

You guys and your "systems" full of crap, make your wager based on the fact who do you think is going to win and let the chips fall where they may.

[burgi]

You guys and your "systems" full of crap, make your wager based on the fact who do you think is going to win and let the chips fall where they may.

Hahaaa, gambling is based on a system, where you lose and bank wins. Always, no bullshit. Betting is gambling too, it has the "systems" as well, but it makes more fun (to me) than poker or roulette. Speak out the smart things, go on.

[Love The Action]

God Bless America, all the people she lost on 9/11/01 and all the troops that protect each of her citizens on a daily basis. WWNF

[Love The Action]

Looking forward to the WNBA playoffs and a return to profitability in that sport

[Love The Action]

WNBA 2011 Season

39 - 38 = -5.5x

Time to get back to the women and finish off the season in the black.

[Love The Action]

WNBA 9/15/11

Play #1

NY/Ind over (146.5) 1x (Locked)

My local switched websites and appears to be offering consistent WNBA lines the night before. Therefore, I'm going to give the WNBA one more shot for the playoffs. My model has this one as low as 149 and as high as 153. Either way, I'm getting more than two points in value here. Although these two teams are two the better defensive teams in the league, there is a solid head to head trend pointing to the over. In addition, I expect both Catchings and Poindexter to come out firing trying to establish their respective games. I believe this will lend itself to a faster pace and more possessions. Based on my numbers, we should hit 150 as long as both teams shot around 45% and based on the historical head to head trends, we should see that materialize on Thursday night. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I am looking at a play on the total in the Pho/Sea game as well, but hoping we get a little line movement to increase the value...GL

[kobstopa]

WNBA 9/15/11

Play #1

NY/Ind over (146.5) 1x (Locked)

My local switched websites and appears to be offering consistent WNBA lines the night before. Therefore, I'm going to give the WNBA one more shot for the playoffs. My model has this one as low as 149 and as high as 153. Either way, I'm getting more than two points in value here. Although these two teams are two the better defensive teams in the league, there is a solid head to head trend pointing to the over. In addition, I expect both Catchings and Poindexter to come out firing trying to establish their respective games. I believe this will lend itself to a faster pace and more possessions. Based on my numbers, we should hit 150 as long as both teams shot around 45% and based on the historical head to head trends, we should see that materialize on Thursday night. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Good god, you're taking the over, now that's a surprise good to see back here
Bol

[Love The Action]

Good god, you're taking the over, now that's a surprise good to see back here
Bol

How have you been? What do you like tonight? Good luck Kob!

[fly fisher]

I am looking at a play on the total in the Pho/Sea game as well, but hoping we get a little line movement to increase the value...GL

I am leaning under, what are you leaning, if you don't mind me asking?

[kobstopa]

How have you been? What do you like tonight? Good luck Kob!

since under is your middle name, i like Seattle-Phoenix -Under 161.5 Points
Storm will be physical at home and they can't let themselves down by play anything less than 100% defensive effort by keep Mercury to less than 75 points, this is like a CONFERENCE FINALS game last year. gl

[Love The Action]

since under is your middle name, i like Seattle-Phoenix -Under 161.5 Points
Storm will be physical at home and they can't let themselves down by play anything less than 100% defensive effort by keep Mercury to less than 75 points, this is like a CONFERENCE FINALS game last year. gl

Agreed...just waiting to see if I can get a better number. Good luck

[bleek88]

You think they'll keep the Mercury under 75? Idk bout that

[Love The Action]

You think they'll keep the Mercury under 75? Idk bout that

Both teams under 81....

[Love The Action]

WNBA 9/15/11

Play #1

NY/Ind over (146.5) 1x (Locked)

My local switched websites and appears to be offering consistent WNBA lines the night before. Therefore, I'm going to give the WNBA one more shot for the playoffs. My model has this one as low as 149 and as high as 153. Either way, I'm getting more than two points in value here. Although these two teams are two the better defensive teams in the league, there is a solid head to head trend pointing to the over. In addition, I expect both Catchings and Poindexter to come out firing trying to establish their respective games. I believe this will lend itself to a faster pace and more possessions. Based on my numbers, we should hit 150 as long as both teams shot around 45% and based on the historical head to head trends, we should see that materialize on Thursday night. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Phoenix/Seattle under (162) 1x (Locked)

My squarer of two books has 162 so I'm going to jump on it now rather than get greedy. I have this one in the 158 range and that provides some nice value on a total of 162. Seattle does not want to let Phoenix dictate the pace and I expect them to clamp down on D from the start and slow it down. Off to eat with the family and then cap tomorrow's MLB and my NCAAF card. Good luck tonight.

[tullamore21]

i cannot play Under, when PHX playing.
Good Luck

[bleek88]

Cant wait for ATL's game tomorrow

[bleek88]

Btw, PHX SEA is going OVER tonight men just to let u know. 9:44 EST

[tullamore21]

Btw, PHX SEA is going OVER tonight men just to let u know. 9:44 EST

agree

[alamo]

Holy crap that was a sharp line. Finished at 146 on the button.

[longhorn2011]

26 point 4th was a killer for me. These women suck 26 point 4th f\*\*k!!

[Love The Action]

Holy crap that was a sharp line. Finished at 146 on the button.

Should've bought the hook...the only time you buy a hook on a total is playoff baskeball...didn't know that applied to WNBA and I had to learn it the hard way. Got hooked...

[kobstopa]

Agreed...just waiting to see if I can get a better number. Good luck

Mission accomplished 61-80 Seattle
Can't go wrong if you agree with me

[Love The Action]

Mission accomplished 61-80 Seattle
Can't go wrong if you agree with me

[Love The Action]

Btw, PHX SEA is going OVER tonight men just to let u know. 9:44 EST

Under

[Love The Action]

This sucks about the NBA....one of my best money-making ventures down the drain. I doubt their will be a season this year based on everything I have read. Once MLB ends, it will be weird not having a sport to handicap everyday. Still have football, but NBA and MLB are my favorites....

[kobstopa]

This sucks about the NBA....one of my best money-making ventures down the drain. I doubt their will be a season this year based on everything I have read. Once MLB ends, it will be weird not having a sport to handicap everyday. Still have football, but NBA and MLB are my favorites....

Hello what's this, haven't seen you here a while since wnba playoff started;
I have to say this had been a good MLB season, plenty of actions and I agree it will Be hard to fill this void, you may consider NHL & euroleague games coming up. Gl

[Love The Action]

Hello what's this, haven't seen you here a while since wnba playoff started;
I have to say this had been a good MLB season, plenty of actions and I agree it will Be hard to fill this void, you may consider NHL & euroleague games coming up. Gl

Congrats to you Kob and everyone else that had a successful WNBA season.

With work, family and all the other sports markets in which I invest, I just couldn't find the proper amount of time to devote to WNBA. After I suffered some bad beats and was forced to bet into bad numbers, it just seemed my time would be better spent concentrating on MLB and getting ready for football. This was my first season of WNBA and I doubt I mess with it again other than spot plays. I just don't feel like it's a smart investment for me. The women do not play a very good brand of basketball and that adds too much variance into the equation. I need to work on my model in this sport to be successful and that would just take too much time.

I have a lot of respect to those of you that were profitable this season. Great job guys.

I hope we get an NBA season so we can make some real money! For now, you can find me in my MLB, NCAAF and NFL threads...good luck!

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/1166721-ltas-mlb-plays-p123.html#post11782377

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/1239549-ltas-ncaaf-plays-p7.html#post11782419

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/1252335-ltas-nfl-plays-p9.html

[Love The Action]

I don't think we see an NBA season until around January....however, I am going to light a candle at church and pray that we get the season started by November...my BR loves the NBA...

[kobstopa]

Congrats to you Kob and everyone else that had a successful WNBA season.

With work, family and all the other sports markets in which I invest, I just couldn't find the proper amount of time to devote to WNBA. After I suffered some bad beats and was forced to bet into bad numbers, it just seemed my time would be better spent concentrating on MLB and getting ready for football. This was my first season of WNBA and I doubt I mess with it again other than spot plays. I just don't feel like it's a smart investment for me. The women do not play a very good brand of basketball and that adds too much variance into the equation. I need to work on my model in this sport to be successful and that would just take too much time.

I have a lot of respect to those of you that were profitable this season. Great job guys.

I hope we get an NBA season so we can make some real money! For now, you can find me in my MLB, NCAAF and NFL threads...good luck!

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/1166721-ltas-mlb-plays-p123.html#post11782377

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/1239549-ltas-ncaaf-plays-p7.html#post11782419

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...-plays-p9.html

Just in case you missed it, elimination games had been gone under pretty consistent, for example wnba game 3 - today