tired of losing money -make my own picks instaed

[masticore]

3/!

Grade - - Today - - Total - ff- Tot$ -ll - Tot$ w/wagering
5*mmmmm1-2ffffffff23-16 fffffff+565 ffffffffff+2825
3*ffffffffffj3-3 fffffff39-27 flflffff+930fffffffffff+2790
Tot:ffffffff4-5 fffffff62-43 ffffff+1495fffffffffff+5615


Today res: 4-5
Tot: -150
w/wagering: -690

5* 23-16 (59%)
3* 39-27 (59%)
5* and 3* 62-43 (59%)


pls tell me if you see something wrong in the sum up

I'm only human so I do some misstakes

[masticore]

Shame to see you "retiring" Your picks looked pretty solid.

Okey, okey...I give it another try...

But I must do some changes maybe...didnt like the bad run the last days

I know it will be good and bad runs..but dont like the bad

I see when I do some "write up" and post it win (and when find POD, also win)

I always do write up...but dont posy them..(lack of time..have familly,jobb etc)

regards
mikke

[masticore]

3/2

5* ATL/CHI un182
5* CHI -4
5* MIN +5
5* PHO +6.5
5* POR -3

3* GS +1
3* CLE/SA un201
3* NO +2.5
3* NYK/NO ov200.5
3* LAC -3


Games in bold...picks I really like (will start track bold games)

[wikkidinsane]

Whats your YTD homie?

[masticore]

Whats your YTD homie?

YTD?
I'm newbe so donr understand?

If you ask what my winnings and result are...some post over latest "score board"



mikke

[masticore]

Done with analyses today....

Have some picks in bold..will track them seperatly...

If the bold games is "better" may I only play them in future....

Fade or follow...its your money


BOL
mikke

[Troillunge]

Don't let a few bad days stop you mikke! BOL tonight

[masticore]

3/2

Grade - - Today - - Total - ff- Tot$ -ll - Tot$ w/wagering
5*mmmmm3-2ffffffff26-18 fffffff+645 ffffffffff+3225
3*ffffffffffj1-3 fffffff40-30 flflffff+700fffffffffff+2100
Tot:ffffffff4-5 fffffff66-48 ffffff+1345fffffffffff+5325


Today res: 4-5
Tot: -150
w/wagering: -290

5* 26-18 (59%)
3* 40-30 (57%)
5* and 3* 66-48 (58%)

I dont track push - so if you dont see thatd correct and not forgotten by me


pls tell me if you see something wrong in the sum up

I'm only human so I do some misstakes

[masticore]

Not a goood day, again!

But the 5* give pluss today

Still 53 units on the good side

Will do some changes tomorrow...let see hoe that works out


regards
mikke

[masticore]

3/3

5* MIA/ORL un198
5* DEN +3.5

[shopbar picks]

good luck mikke thanx, for posting

[masticore]

Analyses done for today

WARNING
Testing a new system for a few days - so dont really know if its better
Have redeem the systems...harder to get any result but the result with backtesting always over 80%

New star system:
80-90% 3*
90-100% 5*


At least 5+ games shall be on back testing
Line changes up to 1.5-2.0 points will also be ok



Fade or follow at your own risk

BOL
mikke

[masticore]

Next "score board" will start from zero...it easier for me to see if the new system is better

[BigBurk]

So what is the "new system" you are talking about? How do you come up with the percentages?

[masticore]

So what is the "new system" you are talking about? How do you come up with the percentages?

Back testing diffrent parameters (have some example in earlier posts)



mikke

[BigBurk]

Back testing diffrent parameters (have some example in earlier posts)



mikke

So what you're saying is you are 90%-100% certain with the 5* picks if I understand correctly? Seems surreal.

[masticore]

More parameters...lesser games that have that parrameters at the last 12-13 years...so in the end few games...so there is no problem to get to down 1 game (will not use if lesser then 5 games)

But if you filter it out to 10-20 game and then its "no problem" to get 80%+.....if you find right parameters

The problem is to find the "true" parameters - its "only" 19198 games in the base and su is 11602-7596 (60% home wins) ATS 9324-9506-368 O/U 9457-9435-306

But as soon you put in some parameters the the number falls down a lot (you dont need many...5-6 and you are down to a handfull of games - depends on your parameters) ex. If parameter "home dog" you are down to ca 5.5 k games (around 75% of the games away)

Hope that explain a little

mikke

[masticore]

So what you're saying is you are 90%-100% certain with the 5* picks if I understand correctly? Seems surreal.

Back testing show 90-100% ... I'm not..because the history dont show future...but they can show what future can give us - maybe

And if I was 90-100%...had I not sitting here and post (and lose)

I'm satified if I come over 55% ...and 60% would be wonderfull

best regards
mikke

[masticore]

First one in today

Lets go Denver for a dubbel today



mikke

[shopbar picks]

agreed cmon denver

[masticore]

3/3

5* MIA/ORL un198
5* DEN +3.5

Ca'tching......

Good start of my version 2 system....

V1: 62-43 (+5325) - "see post 218"

V2:

5* 2-0 (+1000)

Hopefully will V2 be better then V1


regards
mikke

[masticore]

Some extra I'm "dubbel happy" - bought some free plays at BetJam this morning from the points I have won with the first system...

And gone all-in on this two games



mikke

[BigBurk]

Nice night you had! Keep it going!

[shopbar picks]

thanx mikke

[masticore]

3/4 - Will still try V2 (3* almost V1 5* games)

5* BOS/GS un201.5
5* MIA +2.5 (also 5* MIA ml)

3* NJ -2.5
3* NJ/TOR ov201.5
3* ORL -2
3* PHI/MIN ov206
3* CLE +12
3* DAL -8.5
3* DAL/IND un208.5
3* MIL/PHO ov194.5
3* CHA/LAL ov190.5
3* OKC +3.5
3* NOR +5.5

Games in bold almost 5*

[masticore]

Dont know if I like this V2 system...to many games fitts..but its ok for a action junkie (as I am)


Games in bold is almost 5*..its same criteria on them as the 5* games yesterday (I had some minior changes yesterday after the picks already was locked) - they get over 90+ but to few games in back testing...and with enough games they are only 3*. Will track bold games as 3* - also will down grade yesterdays 5* games to bold 3* games (dont know what I should do with them yet - any sugestions?)

2 games left to analyse...I will wait for the line comming up on my book

As usual fade or follow at your own risk (its your money)

BOL

[BigBurk]

Tailing on the BOS under, NJ over and LAL over!

BOL!!

[masticore]

Games in bold is almost 5*..its same criteria on them as the 5* games yesterday (I had some minior changes yesterday after the picks already was locked) - they get over 90+ but to few games in back testing...and with enough games they are only 3*. Will track bold games as 3* - also will down grade yesterdays 5* games to bold 3* games (dont know what I should do with them yet - any sugestions?)


BOL

I have now have make a decision...I will ¨grade them as 5*..but will "bold" them as warning


mikke

[masticore]

Done with analyses...

Fade or follow at your own risk

BOL
mikke

[masticore]

Tailing on the BOS under, NJ over and LAL over!

BOL!!

Starting good (1-0)
Hopefully will you go 3-0

I started with "easy" 2-0

Let see what the day can give me
BOL
mikke

[masticore]

looking bad for my last 5*

But we can live on the 3* with some luck


mikke

[masticore]

WOW...

Heat do only 12 pts in first quarter!!!!!!!!!



mikke

[masticore]

3/4

V1: 62-43 (+5325) - "see post 218"

V2:

5* 0-2 (2-2) -100
3* 6-5 (6-5) +150

V2: 6-7 (8-7) +50

Could be a better day...and worse




regards
mikke

[masticore]

3/5

5* TOR +2.5

3* MIN/WAS ov213
3* HOU -6
3* HOU/IND un216.5
3* SAC/UTA ov208.5
3* CHA/POR un184
3* DEN +1.5
3* DEN/LAC un209

[masticore]

Analyses done for today

Lets buns back today

Fade or follow an your own risk

BOL
mikke