70% system 2010-2011

barts185 · 03-13-11, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by bigugly

Looks like Boston was the only play.

Any thoughts from anyone on when OKC would start being used? I actually thought they would count today, even though I didn't play them, but the trades this year have me really confused on how to handle a lot of teams.

barts185 · 03-13-11, 09:16 PM

record update

For now, unless people chime in, will count OKC as a possible play, not a definite play.

Definite plays 23-25
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss
01/16 LAL -6 (10+) loss
01/17 UTA -4.5 (10+) loss
01/17 CHA +5 (fade of PHI -1 or worse) win
01/19 UTA -6 (10+) loss
01/19 IND +4.5 (fade of GSW -1 or worse) win
01/21 SAS -8.5 (10+) win (possible push at -9)
01/24 SAS -5 (10+) win
01/26 OKC -5 (10+) loss
01/29 SAS -8 (10+) win
01/29 NOR -6 (10+) loss
01/31 DAL -9.5 (10+) win
02/02 CHI -1.5 (10+) win
02/08 SAS -6.5 (10+) win
02/11 SAS -3 (10+) loss
02/12 OKC -4 (10+) loss
02/14 SAS -8 (10+) win
02/15 OKC -9 (10+) win
All Star Break
02/28 CHI -7.5 (10+) win
03/01 LAL -9 (10+) win
03/09 BOS -9 (10+) loss Perkins trade / secondary issues, but not starters.
03/10 MIA +2 (fade of LAL) win
03/13 BOS -8.5 (10+) win

Possible plays 11-6
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) win line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.
01/17 ATL -9.5 (10+) loss lineup changes / Williams has been out for 7 games, CHI is 5-2
01/22 DAL -4.5 (10+) loss Nowitzki hasn't looked good / Pavlovic has played in 6 games, and started the last 2
01/24 CHI -7.5 (10+) win Boozer second game back, had a double double his first game back.
02/13 BOS +3 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win
03/13 OKC -9.5 (10+) win OKC -9.5 Trade changes, starters have played 6 games

Tied record plays 0-2

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss
03/01 GSW +6 loss

bigugly · 03-13-11, 09:39 PM

Originally posted by barts185

Any thoughts from anyone on when OKC would start being used? I actually thought they would count today, even though I didn't play them, but the trades this year have me really confused on how to handle a lot of teams.

I have no idea actually.

barts185 · 03-14-11, 12:01 PM

03/14

Possible plays, comments

BOS, but back to back

OKC was close, but even if they qualified, they are on back to back, so no play.

UTA as a fade of PHI, but starter issues

So, no plays.

Good Luck,
Bart

Welt446+ · 03-14-11, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by barts185

Any thoughts from anyone on when OKC would start being used? I actually thought they would count today, even though I didn't play them, but the trades this year have me really confused on how to handle a lot of teams.

I like the 20 game idea. If a team losses a starter or two, wait until they've played a total of 20 games without them (this includes previously missed games) and compare the record to their overall record.

barts185 · 03-14-11, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by Welt446+

I like the 20 game idea. If a team losses a starter or two, wait until they've played a total of 20 games without them (this includes previously missed games) and compare the record to their overall record.

Sounds good. I'll list them as possible instead of definite plays until then. So teams would be

BOS? Not starter, but I do feel the loss of Perkins will hurt them down the stretch if he could have played. I guess won't count it since we've already used them in games.

DEN

HOU

NJN

NYK

OKC

POR

UTA

Please point out any I missed, or if you disagree with the above list.

barts185 · 03-15-11, 11:06 AM

03/15

possibles

IND as a fade of NYK, but starter issues

CHI, but double digit line

No plays.

barts185 · 03-16-11, 10:44 AM

03/16

possible plays, comments

ATL, but back to back

OKC, but 20 game trade moratorium. Also will be Perkins 2nd game, so no play.

UTA would qualify if the line drops to -6, but 20 game trade moratorium. Also, starter issues, so no play.

CLE as a fade of SAC, but starter issues.

So, no plays.

Good Luck,
Bart

cancan · 03-17-11, 04:34 AM

Let's have some winners today

kingjamesyap · 03-17-11, 04:42 AM

have any plays tonight?

barts185 · 03-17-11, 08:35 AM

Originally posted by kingjamesyap

have any plays tonight?

Let's see - so far there is only 1 game with a line, and it's a double digit line, so no, no plays yet for tonight.

Do you really need the points from posts that badly?

barts185 · 03-17-11, 08:37 AM

Originally posted by barts185

Let's see - so far there is only 1 game with a line, and it's a double digit line, so no, no plays yet for tonight.

Do you really need the points from posts that badly?

Also, in general, Thursdays very rarely have plays, but we'll see.

kingjamesyap · 03-17-11, 08:45 AM

just want to try your 70%

barts185 · 03-17-11, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by kingjamesyap

just want to try your 70%

Not doing anywhere near 70% this season, although it has since the all star break, 5-1 so far (fingers crossed).

Oh, and not -MY- 70%, I just started using it and somehow wound up getting involved.

barts185 · 03-17-11, 10:12 AM

03/17

Final report

possible(s) and comment(s)

CHI, but starter issues

So - no plays.

Good Luck,
Bart

bigugly · 03-18-11, 05:50 PM

Nothing today?

bigugly · 03-18-11, 06:12 PM

I could be wrong, but looks like Atlanta +6 is a play. (Never tried to calculate this before.)

barts185 · 03-18-11, 06:25 PM

I just didn't have time to do this today - back in a minute with at least the ones which could have qualified (anyone should be able to get these with the spreadsheet - look through the thread if you don't have it).

bigugly · 03-18-11, 06:31 PM

I looked through the first bunch of games and I think Atlanta is the only play. Please confirm that if you can.

I haven't looked at any 10:05 EST or later plays yet.

hazeee · 03-18-11, 06:36 PM

no i believe it only works for favorites.

barts185 · 03-18-11, 06:38 PM

03/19

I just don't have time to do this every day, as I've said for awhile. Unless others start helping, might as well just let this die.

Possible plays, comments

WAS as a fade of TOR, starter issues

DEN as a fade of ORL, trade moratorium

ATL as a fade of MIA, don't have time to look into starter issues, but

K. Hinrich ▪ A. Horford ▪ J. Johnson ▪ J. Smith ▪ J. Teague

have started the last 2 games, only games where they were the starter, so unless someone can comment, no play.

LAL DD line

So, no plays unless someone can explain ATL starters.

barts185 · 03-18-11, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by hazeee

no i believe it only works for favorites.

That is not correct, just look at the list of plays, which is posted after every night there is a play.

bigugly · 03-18-11, 06:43 PM

What's wrong with Atlanta starters?

hazeee · 03-18-11, 06:46 PM

yeah just reread your system. i was going off my memory from what i read other places and those systems don't take into account underdog bets.

barts185 · 03-18-11, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by bigugly

What's wrong with Atlanta starters?

I don't know and don't have time to check. But the people that have started the last 2 games, those are the ONLY games which those 5 players have started so far this season. So, on the surface, it would seem like something is going on. Not sure if it's coach just changing who is starting, which is why I thought MAYBE someone could look into it and comment.

bigugly · 03-18-11, 07:14 PM

I see. Good point. Thanks.

barts185 · 03-19-11, 11:22 AM

03/19

If CLE goes to +13.5 they would be a play as a fade of LAC.

A. Gee ▪ J. Hickson ▪ A. Parker ▪ S. Samuels ▪ R. Sessions

Have started the last 8 games.

Personally, I doubt I could bet on CLE at any price below about +18 at this point.

Open to any feedback as to whether or not they should be a play with Jamison out. They are 2-6 ATS with this starting lineup.

At +1.5 DEN as a fade of MIA, but trade moratorium and back to back.

At +9.5 IND as a fade of MEM, but back to back and don't have time to look into what's going on with their starters. Current lineup has only started 5 games this season.

SAS, but dd line and back to back.

So, no plays.

cancan · 03-19-11, 01:23 PM

Let's have some winners today

barts185 · 03-19-11, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by cancan

Let's have some winners today

Going to be tough since there's no plays, but let's hope for the best. I think we'll break even

Or is CLE a play?

bigugly · 03-19-11, 02:43 PM

Well they are at 15 now. So looks like a play.

bigugly · 03-19-11, 02:44 PM

I have no idea.

barts185 · 03-19-11, 09:27 PM

Record update:

Listing CLE as a possible play, if anyone feels it should be a definite play, let me know and if enough people feel that way, I'll move it.

Definite plays 23-25
12/06 UTA -9 (10+) loss
12/07 DET +7.5 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss
12/10 NYK -3 (10+) win
12/11 CLE +8 (fade HOU at -1 or worse) loss - not injury, but numerous lineup changes
12/12 NOR -1 (10+) loss
12/12 LAL -9 (10+) loss
12/12 SAS -7.5 (10+) win
12/12 ORL -7.5 (10+) win
12/13 DAL -7.5 (10+) loss
12/14 ATL -4 (10+) loss
12/15 SAS -9 (10+) loss
12/15 DAL -6.5 (10+) loss
12/17 NYK +5 (fade of MIA at -1 or worse) loss
12/17 DAL -7 (10+) win
12/18 SAS -9.5 (10+) loss Line moved to double digits with Rudy Gay suspension.
12/22 UTA -6 (10+) loss Raja Bell's 4th game back, but only 6 days, played well last game
12/28 BOS -4.5 (10+) win Shaq's 4th game back, Rondo's 5th missed game, both over a week.
12/29 NOR +3 (fade of LAL at -1 or worse) loss Line not orginally there, but with move, became eligible.
12/30 NYK +7.5 (fade of ORL at -1 or worse) loss, but as noted in the thread, didn't play since ORL is a different team.
01/07 SAS -4.5 (10+) loss Parker questionable with cold-like symptoms but played.
01/07 CHI +0 (10+) loss Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/09 NOR +5 (fade of DEN at -1 or worse) win
01/10 CHI -9.5 (10+) win Noah has been out long enough to no longer be considered.
01/11 SAS -6 (10+) win
01/12 NOR +4 (fade of ORL at -1 or less) win
01/12 MIA -8 (10+) loss
01/16 LAL -6 (10+) loss
01/17 UTA -4.5 (10+) loss
01/17 CHA +5 (fade of PHI -1 or worse) win
01/19 UTA -6 (10+) loss
01/19 IND +4.5 (fade of GSW -1 or worse) win
01/21 SAS -8.5 (10+) win (possible push at -9)
01/24 SAS -5 (10+) win
01/26 OKC -5 (10+) loss
01/29 SAS -8 (10+) win
01/29 NOR -6 (10+) loss
01/31 DAL -9.5 (10+) win
02/02 CHI -1.5 (10+) win
02/08 SAS -6.5 (10+) win
02/11 SAS -3 (10+) loss
02/12 OKC -4 (10+) loss
02/14 SAS -8 (10+) win
02/15 OKC -9 (10+) win
All Star Break
02/28 CHI -7.5 (10+) win
03/01 LAL -9 (10+) win
03/09 BOS -9 (10+) loss Perkins trade / secondary issues, but not starters.
03/10 MIA +2 (fade of LAL) win
03/13 BOS -8.5 (10+) win

Possible plays 12-6
12/08 NOR -9.5 (10+) win - David West missed 1 game due to flu, 2nd game back.
12/08 OKC -5 (10+) win - Kevin Durant missed 2 games due to knee, 3rd game back, played well in the 2 games he's been back.
12/09 DAL -9.5 (10+) win - line moved down to -9.5, Tyson Chandler first game back after missing 1 game with flu.
12/19 ATL +4 (10+) loss Joe Johnson 2nd game back after surgery, played well in first game back.
12/28 - not counted as actual play NYK +10 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win - Since +10 was really only available for a short time at a couple of books, and most books opened 9.5 and moved to 8.5, not counting it in the definite plays, putting it here to make sure no one thinks it was overlooked.
12/29 OKC (10+) win line moved from -10 to -8.5, Krstc 3rd game back.
01/04 CHI-9 (10+) win - Noah has been out, Gibson still was having issues from concussion
01/05 DEN -2.5 (10+) loss Anthony 3rd game back from personal leave.
01/07 BOS -9 (10+) win Garnett's 4th missed game out since 12/31.
01/12 DAL +1.5 (10+) loss Both Nowitzki and Chandler have been out for over a week.
01/14 BOS -8.5 (10+) loss lot of injuries, but starting 5 of R. Allen / G. Davis / S. O'Neal / P. Pierce / R. Rondo have been in place since 01/02
01/14 MIL +4.5 (fade of PHI at -1 or worse) win Bogut questionable (played), Gooden 2nd game back, didn't start 1st game back, played 10 minutes. Gooden didn't start, played 22 minutes.
01/17 ATL -9.5 (10+) loss lineup changes / Williams has been out for 7 games, CHI is 5-2
01/22 DAL -4.5 (10+) loss Nowitzki hasn't looked good / Pavlovic has played in 6 games, and started the last 2
01/24 CHI -7.5 (10+) win Boozer second game back, had a double double his first game back.
02/13 BOS +3 (fade of MIA -1 or worse) win
03/13 OKC -9.5 (10+) win OKC -9.5 Trade changes, starters have played 6 games
03/19 CLE +15 (fade of LAC) win

Tied record plays 0-2

12/10 HOU +4 (HOU/MIL same record, ran both ways, fade of MIL at -1 or worse after line move to MIL -4) loss
03/01 GSW +6 loss

cancan · 03-20-11, 10:28 AM

BOL on your plays today

cancan · 03-20-11, 10:29 AM

BOL to everyone with their bets tonight

barts185 · 03-20-11, 10:51 AM

03/20

I only see 1 possible play, and it isn't a play as of now.

If SAC goes to +4.5 they would be a possible play as a fade of MIN. Questions about the starters. Anyone care to comment?

Good Luck,
Bart