Noob capping questions, ask away!

[sweetjones55]

Sweetjones, just wanted to say thank you for putting the time in and sharing your thoughts.

I joined the site this year but this is my second year of betting - although I've done well during my time I never realised there was so much to learn.

I've been impressed with your rational, unbiased analysis which is spot on more often than not, all presented without attitude or ego.

Great job, please keep it up, and thanks. Good luck to you for the rest of the finals and next year

Thanks I appreciate it. Good luck to you as well on your plays.

[HammerTYME41]

My noob capping question is who here at SBR has the most knowledge in capping NBA?

[sweetjones55]

My noob capping question is who here at SBR has the most knowledge in capping NBA?

Don't got the answer to that one..

[nomeansno]

thanks for all the info, useful stuff itt

[easyian]

Sweet been following, you're killing shit. My question is this, which stats do you find most relevant to making a play on a game? How much stock do you put in ATS trends? And finally I have LA ml tomorrow hard, what do you think?

[sweetjones55]

Sweet been following, you're killing shit. My question is this, which stats do you find most relevant to making a play on a game? How much stock do you put in ATS trends? And finally I have LA ml tomorrow hard, what do you think?

I do not like LA ML tonight, I would try to hedge out if possible. I think the line movement from 3 to 3.5 is telling and I just wouldn't bet against Boston in a do or die situation. Vegas didn't have to move this line, they pretty much have even money on both sides.There is no doubt in my mind Boston will want this game more than the Lakers and with the homecourt coming off a home loss I think Boston will pull it out. I think Boston will play above their heads today.

I don't really find any one stat most relevant. I try to get a big picture for a play. I like to have many stats in favor of the play. I am not really a big trend guy, if betting on sports was as easy as following ATS trends then we would all be millionaires.

[shock11]

wow sweetjones you are such a knowledgeable guy

[lyon804]

I do not like LA ML tonight, I would try to hedge out if possible. I think the line movement from 3 to 3.5 is telling and I just wouldn't bet against Boston in a do or die situation. Vegas didn't have to move this line, they pretty much have even money on both sides.There is no doubt in my mind Boston will want this game more than the Lakers and with the homecourt coming off a home loss I think Boston will pull it out. I think Boston will play above their heads today.

I don't really find any one stat most relevant. I try to get a big picture for a play. I like to have many stats in favor of the play. I am not really a big trend guy, if betting on sports was as easy as following ATS trends then we would all be millionaires.

couldn't agree more. I learned this by alot of loosing in the past. I can't tell you how many times I have found a matchup were two teams had played "under" or 'over" the total 8,9,10 times and a row and I go out and bet the trend and it lost Your right if it was that easy nobody would have a JOB!

[sweetjones55]

[/B]



couldn't agree more. I learned this by alot of loosing in the past. I can't tell you how many times I have found a matchup were two teams had played "under" or 'over" the total 8,9,10 times and a row and I go out and bet the trend and it lost Your right if it was that easy nobody would have a JOB!

It really is the biggest amateur mistake. Sportsbook.com gives you all those amazing looking trends for a reason. They aren't afraid of people hopping on board them.

[lyon804]

It really is the biggest amateur mistake. Sportsbook.com gives you all those amazing looking trends for a reason. They aren't afraid of people hopping on board them.

Exactly. Through trial and error I found it is better to fade "most" trends rather than play them.


It kinda goes back to the old adage.."if it looks to good to be true it usually is"

[easyian]

Thanks for the response, good luck tonight.

[warriorfan707]

hey jones, do you like the over or under in game 4? My instinct says under but everyone seems to like the over.

[sweetjones55]

hey jones, do you like the over or under in game 4? My instinct says under but everyone seems to like the over.

I would lean OVER but I wouldn't play it.

[brumbies]

Sweetjones, what are your thoughts on fading the public and live betting?

[sweetjones55]

Sweetjones, what are your thoughts on fading the public and live betting?

Fading the public is generally a good idea but you have to pick and choose your spots. I feel like the public wins in bunches so you have to be careful. Live betting is good for hedging. I have never really gotten into live betting though, I think it would just drive me crazy looking at lines all game long.

[sfi50]

come on please how is that need to know who the best is

[sweetjones55]

come on please how is that need to know who the best is

I think you're asking who the best is.. There's no answer to that question IMO, it's just ones opinion.

[sfi50]

IMO?????

thanks

[lyon804]

IMO= in my opinion if that's what your asking.


Sweetjones is one of the fine cappers here. There are several here that post there picks that are very good at what they do. None of that will serve you well for now because some of the NBA guys here either do not do baseball or do not have as good as results. It'svery hard to be master of multiple sports. Some can do it, but most can't.

[sfi50]

thanks master for i am a mere grasshopper in the newby forum will follow sweet if that is the advise.

[lyon804]

thanks master for i am a mere grasshopper in the newby forum will follow sweet if that is the advise.

No problem. Sweet proved he is a very formidable NBA capper and you could do worse than following him. I believe that is all he does is NBA though.


It's best to learn from people that you respect than be a minnion. Ask questions. Try to figure them out. Look at what they are doing and try to apply things yourself that are working for them.

If you ever tail somebodies plays it needs to make sense for you. Don't just blindly tail.

Successful Sports gambling is the ultimate accomplishemt in life.. It is a lifetime achievement worthy of any college degree. Whatever success you have in it you will have earned it.. There are no short cuts are any golden eggs anybody can or will give you.


Learn from other people here that are successful and you can pick up things time to time. That's basically how everybody learns.. from others are just trial and error. Nobody was born a good at this. Even if you become good you will work your ass off to maintain that level of success.

[shoebox]

thanks master for i am a mere grasshopper in the newby forum will follow sweet if that is the advise.

SJ is solid he has my respect, looking forward to his selections next year as well.

[sfi50]

it is great to know people are serious about this serious business thanks for your reply have done hrs of homework and down money this week follow bigdog to see what is there and goldengreek any other advise on who to follow MLB

thanks

[lyon804]

it is great to know people are serious about this serious business thanks for your reply have done hrs of homework and down money this week follow bigdog to see what is there and goldengreek any other advise on who to follow MLB

thanks

Bet very small and stay within yourself.. Especially in MLB.. If you are looking to follow people in MLB try finding the guys that have alot of page views and replies.. Chances are they might have something working for them. Baseball is a tough animal to get. It really ain't for a rec. bettor. Rec bettors can have nice season's in other sports but baseball can be a real son of a bitch..as can anything else. Don't worry about making money in baseball. If you play it just try to learn something and protect your BR until you can move into a more profitable sport. Baseball is for the hardcore.

[sfi50]

thanks

[sweetjones55]

The only sports I handicap and I'm profitable/worth tailing in my opinion are NBA, ACC football, and ACC basketball. My best by far is betting/fading the Miami Hurricanes in the ACC, I know the basketball and football team inside and out and I am not a homer. My college basketball game of the year, I took WF against Miami.

I tried my luck at NFL but haven't done very well, might just be because of the public killing it so hard in the NFL last year or that can just be wishful thinking on my part lol. I did well in the WNBA last year but the sport is so boring that it's hard to keep up and watch all of the games and get a good grip on it. I know zero about MLB, I'm actually very good fade material in this sport. I took a shot last summer and did horrendous.

[sweetjones55]

it is great to know people are serious about this serious business thanks for your reply have done hrs of homework and down money this week follow bigdog to see what is there and goldengreek any other advise on who to follow MLB

thanks

Just keep putting in the time and most of all learn from your mistakes. When you lose a game try to figure out what you missed judged and why you lost. There are going to be games that you were on the right side and just got unlucky. These losses are the hardest to deal with but it does happen from time to time and you need to be ready for this. Trust yourself and always stay confident. You are going to have cold streaks, it happens to everyone.

Also the biggest mistake I see a lot of new cappers making is they go on a big hot streak and then start slowing down their plays and making smaller unit plays. This is a HUGE mistake, when you are hot you have to leak every penny out of it. Do not be cautious when running good. It's funny because I will see someone losing their shirt one week and then go and put a huge amount on one game to try and get it back and risk getting into a big hole. But they would never put a huge amount and risk a huge chunk of their profit when they are running good and gambling with the books money. You have to up your bet sizes when up and deduct your bet sizes when down.

If you are tailing someone, I suggest tailing every single play and not picking and choosing. And don't just tail someone for 4-5 days, anyone can have a bad week. At least give them 3 weeks of tailing.

[Dexter]

i gained a lot of respect for you sweetjones - you're a sharp mutha fuka....granted you can do without the "Game of the Year" stuff......but its cool. haha

[sweetjones55]

i gained a lot of respect for you sweetjones - you're a sharp mutha fuka....granted you can do without the "Game of the Year" stuff......but its cool. haha

I appreciate the props Dexter, gained a lot of respect for you as well. I have said this a few times but I didn't post units during the regular season so that is my way of saying, I am pounding the hell out of this a lot more than normal.

Those "game of the year" 10+ Unit plays went 6-0 by the way so for superstitious sake you will see them again next year.

[sfi50]

darn it sweet respect you and will follow hate the canes as they sent troy aikmen packing and the best two okla. sooner teams i have seen ( 7 nat champs) and will ever seen. much respect any other plays please give advise humble sooner

[brumbies]

Sweetjones, how do you deal with a losing streak? I am now on a -12 units skid. Stupid World Cup.. I am so tempted to go all in to recover that 12 units lost. What do you do in this situation? Bet at the same amount? Lower it? Whats the longest losing streak you ever been on? Is that 0-5 start to the NBA playoffs your worst losing streak ever?

[capper123]

lakers win yeah i won so much these finals see ya next year!!!

[sweetjones55]

Sweetjones, how do you deal with a losing streak? I am now on a -12 units skid. Stupid World Cup.. I am so tempted to go all in to recover that 12 units lost. What do you do in this situation? Bet at the same amount? Lower it? Whats the longest losing streak you ever been on? Is that 0-5 start to the NBA playoffs your worst losing streak ever?

Ok my first question is do you really KNOW about betting the World Cup? Do you know about a decent majority of the players/teams and their strengths/weaknesses? I am getting the feeling that you are just betting the World Cup because you think it's a fun event. If this is the case then you just need to completely stop betting it all together. If you wanted to make plays on it from the start then you should have have just made them very small plays that didn't affect you if you went cold. Cut your losses and just take the L on this one.

Now to answer your more general questions. When you are on a losing streak you definitely lower the size of your plays. Wait til you start hitting a few again and get your confidence up and then slowly up your play sizes. DO NOT GO ALL IN, this may work once in a blue moon but eventually it will bury you.

In the NBA this year I don't think I had a losing streak longer than 5. The worst cold streak I think was a run where I went 3-10 this year. I had a very good year this year though so I was fortunate.

[brumbies]

Ok my first question is do you really KNOW about betting the World Cup? Do you know about a decent majority of the players/teams and their strengths/weaknesses? I am getting the feeling that you are just betting the World Cup because you think it's a fun event. If this is the case then you just need to completely stop betting it all together. If you wanted to make plays on it from the start then you should have have just made them very small plays that didn't affect you if you went cold. Cut your losses and just take the L on this one.

Yeah you couldn't be more right. I got caught up in this whole World Cup hype. I really regret it. I am basically betting for the sake of betting. I did not even cap the games. What I did was using the due theory. For example, the unders were on an absolute tear. The first six or seven games were unders! I thought to myself no way this will keep up. So I bet on the over each match regardless who is playing. And I got burned pretty bad as the unders kept on hitting! At the present moment, I think they are hitting on a 70 percent clip or something.

Speaking of which, what do you think of the due theory? Just a myth? Do you use it in your capping process?

[sweetjones55]

No, for the most part I do not use the due theory to make plays.