70% math plays 2009-10 tracking

[barts185]

I figured it's worth bringing up that Camby has been starting for the Blazers and he was out and hasn't been back for three games since his injury. The filters say that if a starter has been out, he must be back for three games or a week. I'm not saying that the Blazers were a bad bet, but I'm just bringing up points that may help with sticking to the integrity of the system. What majority rule wants to consider a play is of no real concern to me, and if people don't want my two cents then tell me directly. Not that I'm necessarily assuming that this was directed at me to begin with. :P

I hope this wasn't directed at you. I appreciate your comments, and as I've said, wasn't all that sure myself, but thought that since Camby only missed 1 game, it didn't count as him being out.


In your opinion, since Nash missed 1 game would that mean the Suns won't qualify for a week?


Also, to everyone:

For the record, I only started using this system when someone told me about this thread partway through this year. I am -NO- expert. I just happened to be able to put together a spreadsheet that I thought would help at least with the math portion of it since a lot of people seemed to be having trouble doing that.

I appreciate people wanting to keep the thread clean, and could do without the "Is it back to back, are there any plays today" questions (especially on days when it's already been posted as to whether or not there are plays), but would hope that we can keep the comments at least somewhat civil.

Take Care,
Bart

[sneak-a-peak]

Look guys this is a solid system with its filters. There have been roughly 825 games played in the NBA this year and this system has produced in the neighborhood of 30 games which is less than 4% (1 OUT OF 25) of the total possible amount of games played so it is extremely selective in its nature.

So lets stop turning the injury filter into rocket science. Mundane (who tracked this system last year and started this thread) followed the following guideline.

As far as injuries go: Wait a week to see if the starter comes back. If he does, business as usual from his first game back. If he does not, then assess how the team has done without him. Judgement call. Season ending injuries, you pretty much have to assume he is not a starter.

Seems simple enough to me- I have followed this guideline and all other filters and have been very pleased with the results. All in all with every filter in place this system is still only averaging 2-3 plays a week!- How much more selectiveness and patience could you possibly ask for?

[HoulihansTX]

I figured it's worth bringing up that Camby has been starting for the Blazers and he was out and hasn't been back for three games since his injury. The filters say that if a starter has been out, he must be back for three games or a week. I'm not saying that the Blazers were a bad bet, but I'm just bringing up points that may help with sticking to the integrity of the system. What majority rule wants to consider a play is of no real concern to me, and if people don't want my two cents then tell me directly. Not that I'm necessarily assuming that this was directed at me to begin with. :P

Of course it was not directed at you.

I'm talking about idiots asking what the play is, and injury nonsense.


It real simple... use barts excel sheet. then figure out who has been injured/ B2B. All of those things that are public info. No need to post questions.

[barts185]

Of course it was not directed at you.

I'm talking about idiots asking what the play is, and injury nonsense.


It real simple... use barts excel sheet. then figure out who has been injured/ B2B. All of those things that are public info. No need to post questions.

Actually, if you use the latest version of the spreadsheet (it's been posted, here it is again), it will even figure out the back to back and if the line is too high.

You still need to check that the line is correct, (sometimes the site I use puts up bad numbers) but I don't think that's asking too much since it's pretty clear (hopefully at least) where the line should go for the home team. In case it isn't clear - it's in column E, underneath where it says Home Line, and it's the line for the HOME team, not for the favorite, or the selected team, the line for the HOME team.

The only other scenario that should cause an issue (hopefully will get around to it someday) is if the winning percentage is exactly the same for both teams. I'm still not sure what to do with that, and the sheet might pick one.


Take Care,
Bart

[Welt446+]

I hope this wasn't directed at you. I appreciate your comments, and as I've said, wasn't all that sure myself, but thought that since Camby only missed 1 game, it didn't count as him being out.


In your opinion, since Nash missed 1 game would that mean the Suns won't qualify for a week?


Also, to everyone:

For the record, I only started using this system when someone told me about this thread partway through this year. I am -NO- expert. I just happened to be able to put together a spreadsheet that I thought would help at least with the math portion of it since a lot of people seemed to be having trouble doing that.

I appreciate people wanting to keep the thread clean, and could do without the "Is it back to back, are there any plays today" questions (especially on days when it's already been posted as to whether or not there are plays), but would hope that we can keep the comments at least somewhat civil.

Take Care,
Bart

I'm not sure how much of a factor Nash is. Some research might help with the one day injury question. Does anyone know how to find information on injuries and who was starting for past years? That's the only thing stopping me from researching past years :P

[Welt446+]

Looks like Denver is a play at -6 for the 25th IF you round the numbers up to a whole number. It falls at 9.75.

[barts185]

Denver line has dropped to -5.5. Without rounding (well, using 3 digits for the win percentage), Denver comes in at 10.25


Billups has been back since Feb. 9th
Anthony has been back since Feb. 9th
Martin missed 2 games on Feb. 9th and 11th, has now played in the last 3 games, Feb. 18th, 19th, 21st.

I think it's a play at -5.5 or less, would welcome other (useful) thoughts.


One note on another game, to hopefully avoid any questions about it - the Boston line moved from Boston -1 to Boston +2.5. This is because Pierce is definitely out and Daniels (not a starter, but would start in place of Daniels) is questionable. So while if the line got to Boston +3.5, they would qualify mathwise, they are not eligible.

Take Care,
Bart

[cashil]

Thanks yall.

[PacmanJr_00]

objective play but not official as we are supposed to use only the opening lines which for den is -6

[barts185]

Has anyone tracked how this has done with line moves vs. opening lines?

If it's only supposed to be opening lines, then Denver definitely doesn't count.

[Foals]

Is Houston the only play for today?

[barts185]

Friday, 02/26/10

OKC qualifies, but the opening line was -10, so no play if you're using opening lines. The line has since dropped to -9.5, your call. FWIW, OKC has not been a double digit favorite yet this season. Searching for games where they were 8 points or higher, they are 1-2 ATS with the one cover coming against the Nets on 12/28/09.

HOU qualifies, but Ariza has missed 1 game and is expected to miss at least 2 more while evaluating his hip pointer. Kevin Martin is new to the team (played in his first game with them on 02/20/10) and may move into a starting role, but he was coming off the bench until Ariza was injured. Martin has only started 1 game.



So, if you're being strict, no plays. Other than that, personal call.

Good Luck,
Bart

[og4667]

thank you for the info Bart! nice win on the nugs last night

[Lnn7]

system is hot! both wins tonight

[jim844]

hello just wanted to say how much i appreciated this system being shared with everyone
are the plays for todays NJ and MIL?
I dl'd the xlsx i followed the instructions but i fear i'm doing it wrong b/c yest it didn't tell me hou/okc were plays haha
any advice would be appreciated

[fsugolf]

In the words of NBA jam TE "he's heating up"

[barts185]

any advice would be appreciated

Not sure what advice I can give if you can't follow the instructions.


After writing that, I realized it might come across as a bad comment, but I didn't mean it that way. I just really don't know how to help if you can't read and understand the instructions.

[barts185]

Saturday, 02/27/10

Boston qualifies mathwise, but today they are a dd favorite so are eliminated. Also, Pierce is now being ruled out indefinitely, so everyone will have to make a judgement call on whether or not to use Boston while he's out. Pierce has now missed 2 games (today will be his 3rd), so he's missed games on 02/23 and 02/25 and now 02/27. After today, Boston's next game is on Tuesday, March 2nd, so you have a few days to decide.

Mathwise, Miami qualifies at -1.5 but there are a number of injury questions. The Miami injuries, Alston may return, he's missed 3 games (02/19, 02/20 and 02/23). Wade is definitely out, he's also missed 3 games (02/19, 02/20 and 02/23), this will be his 4th missed game. Richardson injured his leg in Tuesday's game, and didn't finish the game, but I haven't been able to find any status.

The line on the CHI/IND game keeps moving up. It opened at PK, which is no play. At +3, Chicago qualifies mathwise, but they are on a back to back (overtime win last night against Portland), and the staus of Noah is questionable as he deals with plantar fasciitis, so no play.


Since I get questions every day from people wanting to know my opinion on the games, even though I've already said a number of times that I'm no expert, I'm not playing any of the games today.

Good Luck,
Bart

[mundane]

ur work is greatly appreciated bart!

[HoulihansTX]

ur work is greatly appreciated bart!

I concur.

[jakeandba]

hey barts thanks again for the write ups...i am a strict player of the system so the write up helps

[barts185]

This has been edited since the Suns are the dog. The question still applies, but I made a mistake when typing this up.


I appreciate the thanks, and the points . Just trying to help out with something that I think is very worthwhile.


Here's a question (just to show that I'm really not an expert on this), and this is something which the spreadsheet isn't doing.

From the article which was posted, http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/b...abetsystem.htm, it looks like if an underdog moves from a negative value before you add in the line to a positive value after you add in the line, it's supposed to be a play under Part Two of the system. Are we using these plays? Someone had pointed this out once before, but then failed to answer when I posted asking a question. Again, the spreadsheet, as of now, definitely is not pointing out these plays (unless the final value goes from negative to over 10, in which case it would qualify under part one of the system).


For Sunday, it looks to me (again, still uncertain) that the Suns could fall into this category. And, TO BE CLEAR, even if they DO fall into this category, the status of Tony Parker is still uncertain as far as I can tell as I write this, so that would need to be cleared up.

To go over the math.

Spurs 571
Suns 617

617-571=46

46/20=2.3

Suns are on the road, so Subtract 3, making the value -0.7

The line is Spurs -4 (Suns +4), so the value after adding in the line is 3.3, which doesn't fall into the regular parameters of higher than 10 or lower than -1.


But, does the value moving from -0.7 to 3.3 qualify under the second part of the system, where it talks about dogs that move from negative to positive based on the line?


Take Care,
Bart

[barts185]

For Sunday, 02/28/10

As of now (2:40am pacific), 3 games have no line (WAS/NJN, MIA/ORL, TOR/OKC). Other than the question posted above, none of the games which have lines posted qualify mathwise.

I'll be back in the morning with a recap once I see lines and look over injuries if applicable.

Take Care,
Bart

[barts185]

Sunday, 02/28/10, final update

Miami, opened +12, which would not qualify. At +12.5 they would qualify, but they are on a back to back, so are not eligible, and still have the inujury issues. Alston did start last night after missing 3 games. Wade will once again not play. This will be his 5th missed game, and he now is supposed to come back for their next game on Tuesday, which will raise more issues. Richardson did start, but only played 10 minutes, none at all in the second half of the game.

Toronto +7.5 qualifies mathwise. Chris Bosh is still out, will definitely miss today's game, and will also miss tomorrow's game. His earliest return is now slated for the game after Monday, which is Friday, 03/05 when they play NYK.

Bosh has missed 4 games.

02/19, TOR beat NJN 106-89 and covered.
02/20, TOR beat WAS 109-104 but didn't cover.
02/24, TOR lost to POR 87-101 as a 3 point favorite so didn't cover.
02/26, TOR lost to CLE 118-126 as a 5.5 point dog, so didn't cover.

There's also the matter of who's the starter, Calderon or Jack?

Either way you look at the Calderon/Jack question, with Bosh out, this will be a personal call. I'm passing the game. Good Luck if you decide to play it.

Take Care,
Bart

[cashil]

thanks bart

[RetardStrength]

Thanks for the write up

[Hawk007]

8.5 is a lot of points, but I will pass as well......

[nolaswede]

Yeah, think im sitting this one out

[snapstick]

Thanks for all your time and effort bart.

[JohnAnthony]

Any qualified plays today guys?

[barts185]

Monday, 03/01/10

I can appreciate that people want to know, and I guarantee you that I'm posting this as soon as I finish it. Asking if there are any plays isn't going to get it done any faster, and will actually slow me down as I look at the response in my e-mail. Having said that, there are times where other things come up. If anyone else wants to do these, no problem from me.


Cleveland qualifies mathwise, but they are a dd favorite, so aren't eligible. Also, with Shaq out, likely for the rest of the season (at the very least until the playoffs), going to have to make a judgement call. With the still recent addition of Jamison (has started 3 games), and now this, I think it would be prudent to wait the week and see how Cleveland plays. Personally, I'm not a fan of Shaq's and think they'll do fine without him, and think that Varejao will do well. Also, James took a couple of hits in the last game, but I don't really expect those to slow him down, especially having had a couple of days to recover.


Hornets qualify mathwise (actually a play against the Spurs), but are on a back-to-back, so are not eligible. Obvliously, by now, will have to have made a judgement call with Paul having been out for a month. Personally, I will use them if they qualify. But, again, today they are on a back to back, so are not eligible.


Memphis / Portland is a bit of a question for me. The opening line was Memphis -1.5. Portland is the selected team, 565 to 508. The math comes out to -0.15 before adding in the line. Adding in the opening line of Memphis -1.5 / Portland +1.5, this would make Portland fall into the category of going from negative to positive, which I'm still trying to get more answers on. Since then, the line has moved to Portland being the favorite. With a line of Portland -1 / Memphis +1, Memphis now would become the play (fading Portland with the final value for the selected team, which is Portland, including the line of Portland -1 coming in at -1.15). Add to this that Camby is still relatively new to the team, or starting role, and it comes up as a question mark for me.
So, in summary, using the starting number (Memphis -1.5), no play under part one of the system, part two is still a question to me, but could indicate Portland as a play. With the current line (Portland -1 / Memphis +1), Memphis would qualify as a Portland fade at -1.15.


So, after all that, I guess the final summary for today is that there are no plays based on the opening lines and filters, unless you count Portland under part two of the system, which I'm still not clear on.


Take Care,
Bart

[nolaswede]

Thanks for taking the time to write all of this (and explaining it as well)

[PatrickBateman]

Barts185,

You are awesome for doing this...I am no longer going to post in this thread, just want to say thanks. I hope people follow the no post idea and just make their decisions on whether to play or not based on your info that way this thread can become a little less confusing. Again, just wanted to says THANKS and keep up the awesome work

[Lnn7]

Memphis should be a play right now at the current line. The opening really shouldnt have any effect on the formula. It doesnt matter what it opens at, as long as u can get the current line to fit the formula it should be a play. The formula basically is saying if you teams have this much difference in their winning %, given the home/road factor, when the spread reach a certain number there's a big mathematical advantage to taking the team which the spread favors. Another, opening line doesn't matter, whatever current line u get that qualify that's when you know one of the team is giving too much point and u should take the pick.

[barts185]

Another, opening line doesn't matter, whatever current line u get that qualify that's when you know one of the team is giving too much point and u should take the pick.

FWIW, I agree with this point, but that's not the way it seeems it was agreed upon before I got involved, so will continue making the suggestions as per the opening lines, and making comments if the line has moved by the time I post.

The spreadsheet should allow anyone to put in the new lines if they move. Just put the home line in Column E, and you can see the calculations and decide if you want to make a bet or not. And, as I said in my post, on Today's Memphis / Portland game, it seems as though the closeness of the line and the calculation makes it seem like you should have bet both sides if you are playing part one and part two. Although, again, just to be clear, I'm not an expert on this, am just trying to follow the article.

Take Care,
Bart