2014/15 NBA Thread

[Seto]

BOL Seto. I like Bulls too. Only thing I worry about is their schedule. They haven't played since Friday and have been on the road for more than a week. Hopefully too much time off doesn't hurt them here like it did Okc a few weeks ago when they played Houston.

I inevitably thought about that game but I trust Thibs more than Scott Brooks to keep his guys sharp. They should be ready to go tonight.

[Seto]

Updating a previous report, Kevin Durant (toe) has officially been ruled out of Wednesday's game vs. the Pelicans.

Has been for a while now yeah. I would've gone huge on them if he was playing.

[Seto]

Damn you sure love your bulls. I hate betting that team, they never score for me lol

the team I dread betting on more than any other are the Pelicans...they just seem to know when i have anything on or against them...and use that information in the cruelest way possible...they have good enough personnel to kill you on any night when you go against them...but they're also one of the weakest-character teams...quick to roll over and die...just when you need 'em to perform

It's more their defense that has really been so fukking bad this year it's a disgrace. And I'm stuck supporting these bums game in and game out cause of futures. Now when I have bet them this year they have been pretty good to me.

[NBA Maniac]

Has been for a while now yeah. I would've gone huge on them if he was playing.

Didn't had time to look to the card, news, nothing.... (still at work)
Will throw a few darts ahahah

[fitguy67]

Seeters, i don't/can't have paddy...but i do have their sister book, will hill...

can you coach me to exactly where to find that WAS-10.5 alt-spread...don't want to be left without the 9x payout lottery ticket

the biggest payout alt-spread i can find now at willy is -4.5, +350

(is the -10.5 spread buried somewhere that i'm just missing, or is it only availlable at paddy and not willy...quite possible the two books, owned by the same conglomerate have some differences in what lines they offer)

[fitguy67]

nm.even tho' i can't have an ac, i can still view odds at paddy...

along with 365, they have a broad range of spreads (aka lots of ops to buy/sell points)...too bad not an option for me at this time

[chromebook1]

Penetrated !lmao

[downsouth]

Penetrated !lmao

Please keep posts that are nothing more than trolling out of the subforums, thanks

[chromebook1]

You're right... I'm sorry .. Seto, buddy,I hope you bounce back tomorrow strongly. I know tonight was a penetrating day, but you win some you lose some . Keep your head high buddy.

[t-wizzle]

Let's get this Mavs bet bro.

[leetreaper]

You're right I'm sorry .. Seto, buddy,I hope you bounce back tomorrow strogly. I know tonight was a penetrating day,but you win you lose some . Keep your head high buddy.

[chromebook1]

You like that don't you

[Seto]

Clippers+5 -110 (bet365) (riskng 3.3x to win 3x)

Will update yesterday's shitfest in a bit. Just rough times right now. Thought I might have turned the corner a couple days ago but it looks like I'll have to wait a bit more.

[Seto]

Clippers+5 -110 (bet365/paddy power) (riskng 4.4x to win 4x)

Will update yesterday's shitfest in a bit. Just rough times right now. Thought I might have turned the corner a couple days ago but it looks like I'll have to wait a bit more.

Clippers ml +170 (bet365) (risking 3x to win 5.1x)

Edited the post in the quote, added 1 unit.

[Seto]

Seeters, i don't/can't have paddy...but i do have their sister book, will hill...

can you coach me to exactly where to find that WAS-10.5 alt-spread...don't want to be left without the 9x payout lottery ticket

the biggest payout alt-spread i can find now at willy is -4.5, +350

(is the -10.5 spread buried somewhere that i'm just missing, or is it only availlable at paddy and not willy...quite possible the two books, owned by the same conglomerate have some differences in what lines they offer)

It's winning margins, they have teams by 1-10 and 11+. I just say -10.5 for convenience, it's the same really.

WH don't have those unfortunately... But they have decent alternates.

[Seto]

Yesterday: 1-8, -14.79x
Total: 118-200-2, +21.82x

[fitguy67]

It's winning margins, they have teams by 1-10 and 11+. I just say -10.5 for convenience, it's the same really.

WH don't have those unfortunately... But they have decent alternates.

yeah, i was hip to how "winning margin"/"handicap spread" lined up, just wondering if some of the choices you were getting at paddy were buried somewhere (willy has generally an awkward "markets withing markets within markets" structure...can take many clicks to get what you want, even when you know what and where it is...)

since i don't have paddy i figured out a way to pretty well "cobble together" any of your alt lines at whl and/or 365 using their "additonal spread" and/or "winning margin" slate

(i'm sure this is not news to you, but might be helpful to some)
basically, you can "dutch" all the "winning margins" above the appropriate cut-off

eg. last night wanted WAS -10.5/"to win by" 11+ (at +900)
at 365 they had WAS to win by
10-13, +2200
14-16, +4000
17-20, +4000
21+, +8000

dutching all of these using http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-t...ing-calculator
gave odds of +856 a bit lower than +900 of course, because using this slate of plays is equivalent to WAS -9.5 (since you'd cash on any winning margin of 10+ instead of 11+)...so here you can't get the -10.5, +900 quoted but you can "roll your own" -9.5,+856 or thereabouts...

good to know: these lines (which make up the "do it yourself" alt-line) seem to always be available on bet365 during live-betting...and they can swing wildly as teams exchange runs in the early going...and the lottery payout can be magnified greatly due to a relatively meaningless early run by the opposing team...so it's a good idea to re-run the calculator after q1 and consider beefing up your lottery payout for a tiny additional stake

tonight i'll have to pay attention to see if the single alt-spread lines available pre-game at whl/paddy are active during live betting ...would be a lot simpler to revisit these in-play or during breaks than running the calculator on a bunch of 365 live-lines

[nelsonrc24]

Seto, it seems like youre chasing Cleveland's opponents. Cavs are a bit different from the beginning of the season. You might even win this one, but i think youre going a bit too heavy on it.

[KRIT]

GL Seto, hope you hit those Clipp bets.

[chromebook1]

Rough week pal ...

[leetreaper]

Rough week pal ...

What do you expect from a 118-200, i.e. 37% capper, eventually it all evens out.

[Seto]

I'll answer the posts I care about a bit later.

Yesterday: 0-2, -7.4x
Total: 118-200-2, +14.42x

My decision making is just so off right now. Cavs have probably been a bad ATS team this year but I keep picking the wrong spots to fade them. Thought about playing Dallas but figured they might fall behind early and I might be able to get them at a good number live. Longest losing run I've had in over 2 years.

Now I get home and the SECOND I get home the OKC line moves from -4.5 to -6. Lol. Anyway fukk it I've liked this game all week now gonna get scared off now.

Thunder-6 -110 (bet365) (risking 7.7x to win 7x)
Thunder-12 +225 (bet365) (risking 3x to win 6.75x)

Pacers+6 -110 (bet365) (risking 1.65x to win 1.5x)
Pacers ml +210 (bet365) (risking 0.5x to win 1.05x)

[t-wizzle]

I like Pacers too bro. Cavs in for a tough game off a blowout. They probably win but it won't be easy.

[leetreaper]

118-202 now

[mlb]

Bodog still hanging the 4.5

[fitguy67]

Sports-Betting Disability: Public-Service Announcement

*WPF (win-percentage fascination)/BGB (bankroll-growth blindness)

to a victim of these common disabilities:
118-200,+14.42u is considered "hmmm...37%...must be bad"...while
200-118, -14.42u is considered "hmmm...63%...must be good"

there unfortunately is no cure for those who stubbornly CAN not see (the stupid), nor those who WILL not see (the stubborn)...

[chromebook1]

You've got to think the dude has learned a lesson ..

What do you expect from a 118-200, i.e. 37% capper, eventually it all evens out.

[KRIT]

I'll answer the posts I care about a bit later.

Yesterday: 0-2, -7.4x
Total: 118-200-2, +14.42x

My decision making is just so off right now. Cavs have probably been a bad ATS team this year but I keep picking the wrong spots to fade them. Thought about playing Dallas but figured they might fall behind early and I might be able to get them at a good number live. Longest losing run I've had in over 2 years.

Now I get home and the SECOND I get home the OKC line moves from -4.5 to -6. Lol. Anyway fukk it I've liked this game all week now gonna get scared off now.

Thunder-6 -110 (bet365) (risking 7.7x to win 7x)
Thunder-12 +225 (bet365) (risking 3x to win 6.75x)

Pacers+6 -110 (bet365) (risking 1.65x to win 1.5x)
Pacers ml +210 (bet365) (risking 0.5x to win 1.05x)

I like the Pacers here too. I think this is a bounce-back day for you

[smize]

8 teamer 50$ All ML

- SA Spurs
- Orlando Magic
- Cavaliers
- Brooklyn Nets
- Phoenix Suns
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Houston Rockets
- St. Louis Blues (NHL sorry)

[KRIT]

Lets get it Seto. I just unloaded on Indiana. See you at the finish line bud.

[Vinnie Paz]

Scott brooks blows

[Seto]

Scott brooks blows

I can't believe he didn't leave Waiters in the starting lineup after how well he did and bench Roberson. What a fukking joke that guy is.

[Seto]

I like the Pacers here too. I think this is a bounce-back day for you

This day is just a summary of this whole bad run. Every time it looks like I'm about to turn the corner, I get kicked in the teeth twice as hard.

Honestly every other run I've had similar to this - ever - has been much shorter, and a good half of them have been due to going on tilt. That's what kills me here - this is literally unkown territory to me. I'd love to have lost this money because I went on tilt. Fixing "going on tilt" is easy - you just calm down and stop being a dumbass. Fixing "sucking at picking games for 2 weeks" is much harder though.

I mean I really just can't believe OKC couldn't put them away when they went up double digits once or twice. I actually can't. Maybe this New Orleans team is better than I give them credit for, I dunno, but I really just can't believe it. And that's all you can ask for - there's no regrets to be had here. I just picked the wrong side. I thought I might be given a lifeline with OT but no. Hell, maybe I look back at this in May if I cash my Davis MVP +5000 ticket and say "It was all for greater good". But I'm in the now so it sucks and I think they could've covered in OT, maybe I'm crazy, whatever.

Anyway, I'm not going to be shattered by this. I don't know how to give up so I'll just keep trying. Eventually this has to turn around. It really sucks though.

On a positive note, outside of the fact I finally got one fully right fading them - the Cavs finally lost. Now they can go on a fukking losing streak hopefully. I have Bulls Central Division futures for 5 grand so yeah.

[Seto]

Today: 2-2, -8.15x
Total: 120-202-2, +6.27x

[No coincidences]

This day is just a summary of this whole bad run. Every time it looks like I'm about to turn the corner, I get kicked in the teeth twice as hard.

Honestly every other run I've had similar to this - ever - has been much shorter, and a good half of them have been due to going on tilt. That's what kills me here - this is literally unkown territory to me. I'd love to have lost this money because I went on tilt. Fixing "going on tilt" is easy - you just calm down and stop being a dumbass. Fixing "sucking at picking games for 2 weeks" is much harder though.

I mean I really just can't believe OKC couldn't put them away when they went up double digits once or twice. I actually can't. Maybe this New Orleans team is better than I give them credit for, I dunno, but I really just can't believe it. And that's all you can ask for - there's no regrets to be had here. I just picked the wrong side. I thought I might be given a lifeline with OT but no. Hell, maybe I look back at this in May if I cash my Davis MVP +5000 ticket and say "It was all for greater good". But I'm in the now so it sucks and I think they could've covered in OT, maybe I'm crazy, whatever.

Anyway, I'm not going to be shattered by this. I don't know how to give up so I'll just keep trying. Eventually this has to turn around. It really sucks though.

On a positive note, outside of the fact I finally got one fully right fading them - the Cavs finally lost. Now they can go on a fukking losing streak hopefully. I have Bulls Central Division futures for 5 grand so yeah.

Really pathetic effort from OKC tonight. Zero sense of urgency.