NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[Ronald S.]

11/13 NBA SDQL Best Bet

508 Golden St -10 -105 (vs Brooklyn)

HF and p:HFL and p:line <= -7.5 and season >= 2008
SU: 116-20 (11.47, 85.3%)
ATS: 82-51-3 (3.27, 61.7%) avg line: -8.2
O/U: 68-64-4 (0.63, 51.5%) avg total: 197.1

HF and p:HFL and p:line <= -7.5 and season >= 2008 and line <= -10
SU: 46-4 (15.98, 92.0%)
ATS: 32-17-1 (3.88, 65.3%) avg line: -12.1
O/U: 28-22-0 (3.17, 56.0%) avg total: 199.4

Trend is fairly straightforward. Home favorites do very well following a straight up loss as a -7.5 home favorite or better in their previous game. Even better if spread is double digits or more. Warriors as home favorites following a loss as a home favorite were 5-1 last year. I also like the dynamic of a possible letdown for Brooklyn after losing a game last night that they had a large lead in.

[Ronald S.]

I went through the same process you did haha, wound up going with consensus and taking Bulls +2.5 and the Under, 1/2 unit each. BOL all.

Yep, I actually did end up taking the Under too but scrapped the parlay and just made 2 separate bets.

[pip2]

Only 2 queries found so more of a snack than a meal today:

phi covers vs dal From PunterBoss ATS:166-107-6 (1.77, 60.8%)
AD and WP < 50 and o:WP > 50 and ats streak < 0 and o:ats streak > 0 and playoffs = 0 and season>= 2003 and on:H and 8<=game number<=63

chi covers vs tor from jmon sitpost #1392 -- ATS: 45-9-2 (7.15, 83.3%)
A and -3 <= line <= 5 and p:H and p:margin > 10 and P:W and month != 3 and o:rest < 2 and 2011 <= season and D

Results
0-1 PunterBoss' query lost as phi got punted
1-0 jmon's query won as chi dominated tor for most of the 2nd half

[FlyinAir]

Not every game can be an winner, nor an under for the Grizzlies.

1-1 -0.10u

[hyahya]

A and p:HL and p:margin<-10 and op:ADW and WP<40

Away team coming off a beatdown at home against a team coming off a satisfying win on the road. I looked at a bunch of additional switches (month, rest, total, opponent wp) and it remained quite positive across the board.

[FlyinAir]

Bouncing back for Friday Nov 14th

Play Pacers -2 (-135)

SDQL : WP<28 and A and p:L and pp:L and po:FGM>40 and po: points>102.5 and op:W

Fade - A WP Less than 28% team coming off b2b losses, w/ previous oppt Making more than 40 FG & scoring more than 102.5 pts, and with current oppt (Ind)coming off a win.


In favor of Pacers:
Roy Hibbert: p: points>12 and team=Pacers and p:TO>13.5 and o:WP<39 and opo: points>99
WP>32.5 and p:TO>13 and p:W and po:FGP>41.5 and po: points<89 and o:WP<37 and op: points>99 and season > 2004

TOB 208AMCT flyinairsbrforum/spreadsheets as well

[dmitean]

AD and line < 5.5 and WP > 65 and p:HFL and season >= 2008

A good team, coming off a home loss as favorite and playing on the road as a dog, should try to focus on defense. That doesn't always work, but the Under comes through nicely and actually it's the dog, that usually puts a poor offense.

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 8-4 (+3.90)

Yesterday's recap 2-2 (+.05)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

1. JMon - 1-1 (+.10)

2. pip2 - 0-1 (-1.05)

3. nash13 - 1-0 (+1.00)

4. Ronald S. - 1-1 (-.05)

5. hyahya - 2-0 (+2.00)

6. Mako-SBR - 1-0 (+1.00)

7. FlyinAir - 1-1 (-.10)

8. Consigliere - 1-0 (+1.00)

9. Sports Mind - 0-0 (0.00)

10. Forty Six - 0-0 (0.00)

[hyahya]

H and total>205 and p:HL and po:P3-p:P3 + po:P4-p:P4>14 and season>=2008

H and tA(FTA)<=21 and month=11 and F and -8.5<=line<=-3 and 2008<=season and rest<4 and o:rest<3

A and tA(ooints)>=103 and p:M2<=-10 and pp:M2<=-10

season>2009 and line>=-10 and P:margin<-20 and P:AL and p:LF and p:margin<=-15

H and line>4 and total>=195 and rest<2 and p:margin>=-8 and season>=2012

H and p:fouls<=14 and p:AD and 7 > line > -10

HD and line<=10 and p:AL and po:blocks>=10 and rest<4 and 2007<=season

A and p:L and total>=200 and p:margin>-4 and oS(points>100,N=3)=3

tA(FTA/FGA, N=3) > 0.35 and oA(FTA/FGA,N=3)<0.2 and playoffs = 0 and AF and season>2000

HD and rest = 1 and p:rest = 0 and p:A and pp:A and season >= 2009

(AD or HF) and p:PTP>=33 and pp:PTP>=33 and (p:W or p:FL) and rest<=2 and o:rest<=1 and game number<=80 and season>=2010

tA(FTA)<=21 and otA(FTA)>=26.5 and HD and line<10.5

AD and WP < 50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak < 0 and 0 < o:ats streak < 3

tA(FGA) > 84.3 and otA(FGA) > 84.4 and H and tA(turnovers) + otA(turnovers)<=30.5

[pip2]

A lot to digest:

phi covers vs hou From jmon sitpost#787 ATS: 97-49-2 (3.32, 66.4%)
A and tA(ooints)>=103 and p:M2<=-10 and pp:M2<=-10

den covers vs ind From J R ATS: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%)
AD and WP < 50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak < 0 and 0 < o:ats streak < 3

cle covers vs bos and Over from consigliere ATS:37-24-0 (1.11, 60.7%) O/U:42-18-1 (8.71, 70.0%)
tA(FTA/FGA, N=3) > 0.35 and oA(FTA/FGA,N=3)<0.2 and playoffs = 0 and AF and season>2000 and season

cha covers vs phx from Ronald ATS: 63-41-2 (2.69, 60.6%) works better 2nd half of season
A and p:L and total>=200 and p:margin>-4 and opoints>100 and oppoints>100 and opppoints>100

den and mil cover vs ind and orl from jmon ATS:14-36-0 (-5.22, 28.0%)
H and tA(FTA)<=21 and month=11 and F and -8.5<=line<=-3 and 2008<=season and rest<4 and o:rest<3 and losses>0 and o:wins<7 and o:losses<9

sa covers vs lal from jmon ATS: 18-45-3 (-3.58, 28.6%)
HD and line <=10 and p:AL and po:blocks>=10 and rest<4 and 2007< season

det covers vs okc From nash13 ATS: 91-158-7 (-2.05, 36.5%)
H and p:fouls<=14 and p:AD and 7 > line > -10

[pip2]

Freaky Deaky

The following jmon query is starting to freak me out a little bit:

H and tA(FTA)<=21 and month=11 and F and -8.5<=line<=-3 and 2008<=season and rest<4 and o:rest<3 and losses>0 and o:wins<7 and o:losses<9

SU: 39-22 (0.92, 63.9%)
ATS: 19-42-0 (-4.47, 31.1%) avg line: -5.4
O/U: 30-30-1 (1.15, 50.0%) avg total: 194.4


The bizarre thing about this query is that you can see it goes back to 2008 season, and at the beginning of this (2014) season the query had a sample size of 47, built up over 6 years. Now, maybe 2 weeks into this season, it has already caught 14 games, nearly a third of what it picked up over the previous 6 seasons!
Its ATS for this season is holding reasonably true so far, at 36%. Is there some higher and greater meaning to this?

[JMon]

The following jmon query is starting to freak me out a little bit:

H and tA(FTA)<=21 and month=11 and F and -8.5<=line<=-3 and 2008<=season and rest<4 and o:rest<3 and losses>0 and o:wins<7 and o:losses<9

SU: 39-22 (0.92, 63.9%)
ATS: 19-42-0 (-4.47, 31.1%) avg line: -5.4
O/U: 30-30-1 (1.15, 50.0%) avg total: 194.4


The bizarre thing about this query is that you can see it goes back to 2008 season, and at the beginning of this (2014) season the query had a sample size of 47, built up over 6 years. Now, maybe 2 weeks into this season, it has already caught 14 games, nearly a third of what it picked up over the previous 6 seasons!
Its ATS for this season is holding reasonably true so far, at 36%. Is there some higher and greater meaning to this?

Noticed it too!?! Fouls not being called???

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-14-14 - 10:04a CT

Play Denver ML +140

SDQL:

P:A and P:margin<=-20 and p:F and p:margin<=-15 and line>-10 and rest<3 and o:rest<2

SDQL: English

Play a team of no more than a 9.5pt fav, on no more than 2 days rest, that lost vs the oppt on the road by a blowout of 20 or more; coming off a loss as a fav of 15 or more and the oppt is on no more than 1 days rest.

[dmitean]

Love Cleveland bet, also can easily see Charlotte hanging on in Arizona.

[pip2]

I guess my entry yesterday was not valid. Today I went to the Counselor, who gave me an offer I could not refuse:

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-14-14 - 9:24am PST

Play Cleveland Cavaliers/Boston Celtics* Over 211 -105

SDQL:

tA(FTA/FGA, N=3) > 0.35 and oA(FTA/FGA,N=3)<0.2 and playoffs = 0 and AF and season>2000 and season

SDQL: English

Play the over on a game where (since 2000) a favored team playing away has had a high ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts for the past 3 games, and they are playing against a team that has had a low ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts for the past 3 games. Not sure why this works, but perhaps it has to do with one team making lots of points with the clock stopped, and the other team shooting a lot of outside shots

Basically, though, if you give me any kind of reasonable statistical evidence to indicate CLE is going Over, then I would probably jump at it.,,

[JMon]

pip2 I saw your post yesterday, however an official Best Bet shall be posted as transcribed in the rules. Reasoning is to avoid riffraff from those who follow our thread and to provide the most accurate tracking.

[SportsMind]

Gonna sit out today too. :-(

[nash13]

Short Question to all, do most of you transfer the queries to the spreadsheet or should i track back the last pages?

[hyahya]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-14-14 - 10:49am PST

Play Denver Nuggets/Inidana Pacers Over 196 -110

A and p:HL and p:margin<-10 and op:ADW and WP<40

Away team coming off a beatdown at home against a team coming off a satisfying win on the road.

[JMon]

Short Question to all, do most of you transfer the queries to the spreadsheet or should i track back the last pages?

A couple days ago, I took a quick look at many of the queries posted already and noticed some familiarity of my own posted from the previous years. Therefore I have not been in fear of double posting. However feel free to transfer any of mine as a contributor.

[nash13]

ok i will crosscheck last pages.

[Mako-SBR]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-14-14 - 11:55a PST

Play: New Orleans/Minnesota - Under 206 (-110)

SDQL:

H and 60>= WP>=51 and tS(ou margin, N=5)>=18 and 198<=total<=207 and C and season>=2006

SDQL: English

Home team with a slightly better than .500 record, against a conference opponent, in a game where the total is set between 198 and 207, with said home team blowing away the over in recent previous games to the point where the line is now likely too high and the contrarian play is the right one.

Two others I'll be playing today:

F and line<=-14.5 and WP>=57 and o:WP<=30 and rest in [1,3] and o:rest in [0,1,3] and season>=2006
(Houston/Philly, under 206)

HD and (pW or p:ADL) and (op:AD or op:AFL or op:HF) and po:blocks>=10 and 4<=line<=10 and season>=2006
(San Antonio -8, versus the Lakers...sure hope Pop is playing their damn starters...yikes)

[dmitean]

Under in NO sounds like a good play.
Rubio is out, so Lavine will get tons of minutes, but he is a rookie and doesn't run the offense as smoothly as Rubio.
Young also out and he is their main scorer.
Can easily see this one as 102 - 96 type of game.

[Mako-SBR]

Under in NO sounds like a good play.
Rubio is out, so Lavine will get tons of minutes, but he is a rookie and doesn't run the offense as smoothly as Rubio.
Young also out and he is their main scorer.
Can easily see this one as 102 - 96 type of game.

Nice, love to hear when "real life" issues match up with our league-wide systems heheh.

PS - Nice job yesterday all, the Bulls/Under rolled...even the GS -10 bet only missed by a basket...

JMon even scored with his big balls ML bet, very impressive!

[nash13]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-14-14 - 09:51 CET

Play Spurs -8 (-105)

HD and line<=10 and p:AL and po:blocks>=10 and rest<4 and 2007<=season

SDQL English: Play agains a Home Underdog who lost his previous Away Match in which their opponent had 10 blocks or more and the rest ist below 4 days. Only take games after 2007 into account.

[Consigliere]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-14-14 - 09:51 CET

Play Spurs -8 (-105)

HD and line<=10 and p:AL and po:blocks>=10 and rest<4 and 2007<=season

SDQL English: Play agains a Home Underdog who lost his previous Away Match in which their opponent had 10 blocks or more and the rest ist below 4 days. Only take games after 2007 into account.

I'm on the same.
NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-14-14 - 09:16 CET

Play Spurs -8 (-105)

HD and line<=10 and p:AL and po:blocks>=10 and rest<4 and 2007<=season

SDQL English: Play agains a Home Underdog who lost his previous Away Match in which their opponent had 10 blocks or more and the rest ist below 4 days. Only take games after 2007 into account.

[JMon]

Mako...will need your odds to make the play official!

[Mako-SBR]

Mako...will need your odds to make the play official!

Ooops, updated it, -110.

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-14-14

Plays- some maybe pending..

FlyinAir - IND -2 (1.35 to win 1)

JMon - DEN ML (1 to win 1.40)

pip2 - CLEV OV (1.05 to win 1)

hyahya - DEN OV 196 (1.10 to win 1)

Mako-SBR - NO UN 206 (1.10 to win 1)

nash13 - SA -8 (1.05 to win 1)

Consigliere - SA -8 (1.05 to win 1)

-please let me know of any errors-

[Ronald S.]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-14-14

Plays- some maybe pending..

FlyinAir - IND -2 (1.35 to win 1)

JMon - DEN ML (1 to win 1.40)

pip2 - CLEV OV (1.05 to win 1)

hyahya - DEN OV 196 (1.10 to win 1)

Mako-SBR - NO UN 206 (1.10 to win 1)

nash13 - SA -8 (1.05 to win 1)

Consigliere - SA -8 (1.05 to win 1)

-please let me know of any errors-

Sorry been very busy today... no play for me

[figue]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 8-4 (+3.90)

Yesterday's recap 2-2 (+.05)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

1. JMon - 1-1 (+.10)

2. pip2 - 0-1 (-1.05)

3. nash13 - 1-0 (+1.00)

4. Ronald S. - 1-1 (-.05)

5. hyahya - 2-0 (+2.00)

6. Mako-SBR - 1-0 (+1.00)

7. FlyinAir - 1-1 (-.10)

8. Consigliere - 1-0 (+1.00)

9. Sports Mind - 0-0 (0.00)

10. Forty Six - 0-0 (0.00)

nice work guys

muy buen trabajo muchahos

[dmitean]

Nice, love to hear when "real life" issues match up with our league-wide systems heheh.

The problem was that there were two teams on the floor and when Pelicans score 139 points (yikes), it won't help that Minny did struggle on offense and scored only 91 points. Sixers must be feeling a lot better today about the loss to Dallas (and having almost won the game in Houston)

[JMon]

dmitean... It seems you have alot to say. You want to take the place of 46?

[pip2]

A lot to digest:

phi covers vs hou From jmon sitpost#787 ATS: 97-49-2 (3.32, 66.4%)
A and tA(ooints)>=103 and p:M2<=-10 and pp:M2<=-10

den covers vs ind From J R ATS: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%)
AD and WP < 50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak < 0 and 0 < o:ats streak < 3

cle covers vs bos and Over from consigliere ATS:37-24-0 (1.11, 60.7%) O/U:42-18-1 (8.71, 70.0%)
tA(FTA/FGA, N=3) > 0.35 and oA(FTA/FGA,N=3)<0.2 and playoffs = 0 and AF and season>2000 and season

cha covers vs phx from Ronald ATS: 63-41-2 (2.69, 60.6%) works better 2nd half of season
A and p:L and total>=200 and p:margin>-4 and opoints>100 and oppoints>100 and opppoints>100

den and mil cover vs ind and orl from jmon ATS:14-36-0 (-5.22, 28.0%)
H and tA(FTA)<=21 and month=11 and F and -8.5<=line<=-3 and 2008<=season and rest<4 and o:rest<3 and losses>0 and o:wins<7 and o:losses<9

sa covers vs lal from jmon ATS: 18-45-3 (-3.58, 28.6%)
HD and line <=10 and p:AL and po:blocks>=10 and rest<4 and 2007< season

det covers vs okc From nash13 ATS: 91-158-7 (-2.05, 36.5%)
H and p:fouls<=14 and p:AD and 7 > line > -10

RESULTS

1-0: jmon's query correctly calls phi cover vs hou (excellent!)
1-0: JR 's query wins where den covers vs ind
1-1: consigliere query calls cle/bos over but misses on cle covers vs bos
1-0: ronald query hits on cha covering vs phx
1-1: jmon query splits and ut covers vs ny while mil goes down vs orl
1-0: jmon query correctly calls sa covering vs lal
1-0: nash query correctly calls det covering vs okc

7-2 if you played all these, which I definitely did not do...

[dmitean]

dmitean... It seems you have alot to say. You want to take the place of 46?

What do you mean?