NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

**pip2** · 11-03-14, 11:20 AM

Originally posted by FunkFreaker

Really enjoy the numbers here but what is the logic in this trend ? Really don't know if we can trust on that "tA(points)>=100" after only couple of games for Celts... they score 120 (home) and 90 (road).

I don't like the general idea of betting on Boston vs. Dallas because if they got blown out by Houston, it seems logical the same thing would happen at Dallas. I ran the query for game number less than 10, and it was 8-4. But when I ran it for game number less than 5, it was 0-1.

**dmitean** · 11-03-14, 12:06 PM

Originally posted by hyahya

H and line > -6 and p:AW and pp:AW and season >= 2011

I liked Pelicans regardless of this, but now I'm feeling a bit better, thanks

**dmitean** · 11-03-14, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by pip2

Nice one coming up tomorrow courtesy of mako himself...

AD and p:AL and p:margin<=-13 and tA(points)>=100 and o:WP>=60 and o:rest>0

AD and p:AL and p:margin<=-13 and tA(points)>=100 and o:WP>=60 and o:rest>0 and line>8 and line<11 and season>2008

If we look at lines closer to today's and recent years... it's not that great...

**Ronald S.** · 11-03-14, 01:35 PM

Hey guys I just started learning this sdql stuff. What do you think about this trend for tonight?

AD and p:ADW and rest = 0 and o:rest = 1

119-168-6 (-2.39, 41.5%)

avg total: 195.2

AD and p:ADW and rest=0 and o:rest=1 and p:line>9

12-25-0 (-4.96, 32.4%)

avg total: 194.7

Kings/Nuggets 202

**escism** · 11-03-14, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by dmitean

I liked Pelicans regardless of this, but now I'm feeling a bit better, thanks

I was on them today as well. Feel good about with a few different situations leaning me that way.

**hyahya** · 11-03-14, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by Ronald S.

Hey guys I just started learning this sdql stuff. What do you think about this trend for tonight?

AD and p:ADW and rest = 0 and o:rest = 1

119-168-6 (-2.39, 41.5%)

avg total: 195.2

AD and p:ADW and rest=0 and o:rest=1 and p:line>9

12-25-0 (-4.96, 32.4%)

avg total: 194.7

Kings/Nuggets 202

The query looks solid although I see this one going the other way. Total is down to 201 and Nuggs still playing at a top 5 pace but just not making shots. Nuggs also love to play extra fast when they have an opponent on a b2b. I really like the over here despite the trend outlined.

**FlyinAir** · 11-03-14, 03:29 PM

Glad to see this back around

**existential** · 11-03-14, 03:53 PM

where can you find statistics on pace? thanks

**pip2** · 11-03-14, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by hyahya

The query looks solid although I see this one going the other way. Total is down to 201 and Nuggs still playing at a top 5 pace but just not making shots. Nuggs also love to play extra fast when they have an opponent on a b2b. I really like the over here despite the trend outlined.

It looks like it was pure gold from around 1998 to 2007, but has slipped a bit in more recent years:
18 8-9-1 (-0.89, 47.1%) 199.3 season = 2006
15 3-11-1 (-10.23, 21.4%) 199.6 season = 2007
15 6-8-1 (-2.80, 42.9%) 193. season = 2008
12 6-6-0 (1.25, 50.0%) 197.6 season = 2009
14 6-7-1 (0.39, 46.2%) 202.0 season = 2010
17 8-9-0 (-2.68, 47.1%) 193.0 season = 2011
15 7-8-0 (-2.03, 46.7%) 198.4 season = 2012
18 8-9-1 (2.83, 47.1%) 202.8 season = 2013

**hyahya** · 11-03-14, 04:39 PM

p:margin>=25 and line>p:line and season>=2012

**hyahya** · 11-03-14, 04:40 PM

AD and rest<2 and p:HW and p:dps>=15 and p:margin>=10 and season>=2006

**Ronald S.** · 11-03-14, 05:25 PM

thanks for the feeback guys. I did it again with total >199.5 and it is somewhat weaker but I think I will go with the under anyway along with SAC +7. Interestingly, Kings 1st 3 games have all gone under.

AD and p:ADW and rest = 0 and o:rest = 1 and total > 199.5

36-53-4 (-1.81, 40.4%)

avg total: 207.4

and small sample size but pretty decent for 2013
AD and p:ADW and rest = 0 and o:rest = 1 and total > 199.5 and season = 2013

2-8-1 (-8.09, 20.0%)

avg total: 207.9

**JMon** · 11-03-14, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by nash13

One of the easiest:
HF and o:rest=0 and rest > 3

O/U:83-48-5 (5.57, 63.4%) avg total: 196.8

Nice on nash! Eliminate those end of the season games.

**FortySix** · 11-03-14, 06:43 PM

Hey fellas,

Trying to figure out a play on the Kings @ Nugs over. 202 seems low for a Nugs home game and I think after their bad efforts against OKC the other night the Nuggets can get their offense moving in the right direction. Kings on a back to back as well, can't see them playing too much defense in the Mile High City. Does anyone have any SDQL to fit this play?

**JMon** · 11-03-14, 07:03 PM

The basis of this is fading a home fav that is poor at drawing fouls.

H and tA(FTA)<=21 and month=11 and F and -8.5<=line<=-3 and 2002<=season and rest<4 and o:rest<3 and losses>0 and o:wins<7 and o:losses<9

**Mako-SBR** · 11-03-14, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by pip2

Nice one coming up tomorrow courtesy of mako himself...

AD and p:AL and p:margin<=-13 and tA(points)>=100 and o:WP>=60 and o:rest>0

Originally posted by FunkFreaker

Really enjoy the numbers here but what is the logic in this trend ? Really don't know if we can trust on that "tA(points)>=100" after only couple of games for Celts... they score 120 (home) and 90 (road).

Agree Funk, this is a good scenario once teams have more games under their belts, am also not playing it yet.

Actually I'm holding off until next Monday to start my NBA betting across the board for that same reason, the beginning of the season (and the end of the regular season for that matter) introduce too many variables for me to follow a query unless said query is specifically targeting those time frames.

Hard to hold back, believe me, JMon and everyone else make it tough to resist!!

**pip2** · 11-03-14, 08:07 PM

Sorry I didn't lay this down before, too busy. This might be worth saving for the future. To me it is interesting because today's game seems very counter intuitive. It is from a guy named Tom on the Google group and shows a decent chance the 76ers will cover vs. the Rockets...

H and (line>10 or line<-15) and p:L and rest+p:rest+pp:rest>1 and rest<3 and playoffs=0 and p:line<=15

**SportsMind** · 11-04-14, 01:04 AM

Really loving this thread, especially to confirm picks that you come to using other methods.

HF and p:AD and p:margin<0 and p:fouls>25 and rest=0 and line>-6 and o:rest>0

35-21 (2.38, 62.5%)
25-30-1 (-0.75, 45.5%)	avg line: -3.1
37-18-1 (5.78, 67.3%)	avg total: 195.6

A quality team with no rest after a tough game in which they weren't expected to win, and they got into foul trouble. The next game they go home and play more loose on defense against a quality opponent who has rest.

Feel free to criticize.

**FlyinAir** · 11-04-14, 02:21 AM

Not bad for your first post +1

**SportsMind** · 11-04-14, 05:31 AM

Originally posted by FlyinAir

Not bad for your first post +1

Thanks!

Updates to queries brought to you by Nash13. They are all similar but lead to one conclusion.

AF and p:AFL and 1 <= rest <= 2 and season>2007

95-35 (6.70, 73.1%)
80-46-4 (1.59, 63.5%)	avg line: -5.1
56-72-2 (-1.24, 43.8%)	avg total: 197.1

p:margin < -15 and AF and season > 2007 and total>199

45-14 (6.92, 76.3%)
42-17-0 (2.82, 71.2%)	avg line: -4.1
29-29-1 (-0.42, 50.0%)	avg total: 206.8

AF and p:AFL and p:line >= -4 and season > 2007 and total>199

42-11 (7.74, 79.2%)
39-13-1 (2.91, 75.0%)	avg line: -4.8
26-27-0 (-0.42, 49.1%)	avg total: 206.6

**FortySix** · 11-04-14, 05:36 AM

AD and p:HWF and op:HWF and total >190

Looking at Knicks ML

**Ronald S.** · 11-04-14, 07:44 AM

An interesting one I came across yesterday. No games fit this today but I like the underlying theory behind it... that b2b on the road maybe aren't so important early in the season. (Or at least, the books put more emphasis on it than it really is)

AD and p:AD and rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and month = 11 and line < 4

32-17 (1.31, 65.3%)
37-12-0 (3.71, 75.5%)	avg line: 2.4

Interestingly though, you would expect it to fall off as the season progresses which it did in December:
AD and p:AD and rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and month = 12 and line < 4

25-25 (-2.16, 50.0%)
28-22-0 (0.57, 56.0%)	avg line: 2.7
21-28-1 (-3.06, 42.9%)	avg total: 193.4

But the ATS record for January is phenomenal!
AD and p:AD and rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and month = 1 and line < 4

35-24 (1.95, 59.3%)
39-19-1 (4.23, 67.2%)	avg line: 2.3
35-24-0 (4.96, 59.3%)	avg total: 194.6

February on and it was pretty much 50/50

**Ronald S.** · 11-04-14, 07:51 AM

And I just ran it again with no stipulations on the previous game and it follows the same trend as before! Phenomenal in November, and a slight uptick in January. Anyone have an idea why this is the case?

AD and rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and month = 11 and line < 4

81-60 (-0.09, 57.4%)
93-46-2 (2.35, 66.9%)	avg line: 2.4
69-67-5 (0.17, 50.7%)	avg total: 194.0

AD and rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and month = 12 and line < 4

56-78 (-2.53, 41.8%)
67-66-1 (0.06, 50.4%)	avg line: 2.6
65-67-2 (-1.02, 49.2%)	avg total: 194.1

AD and rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and month = 1 and line < 4

73-83 (0.04, 46.8%)
85-67-4 (2.38, 55.9%)	avg line: 2.3
87-68-1 (3.06, 56.1%)	avg total: 194.0

Needless to say, be on the lookout for short road dogs on a b2b in November. Tremendous value not just ATS but on the moneyline too!

**Ronald S.** · 11-04-14, 08:18 AM

One last thing on this trend... It is stronger when the previous game was also on the road, especially on the moneyline!

AD and p:A and rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and month = 11 and line < 4

50-31 (0.38, 61.7%)
57-24-0 (2.78, 70.4%)	avg line: 2.4

AD and p:H and rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and month = 11 and line < 4

31-29 (-0.72, 51.7%)
36-22-2 (1.76, 62.1%)	avg line: 2.5

**Ronald S.** · 11-04-14, 08:39 AM

Originally posted by FortySix

AD and p:HWF and op:HWF and total >190

Looking at Knicks ML

Not crazy about this one... Those include big underdogs too.

AD and p:HWF and op:HWF and total >190 and line<4

63-84 (-1.30, 42.9%)

AD and p:HWF and op:HWF and total >190 and line<3

36-40 (-0.41, 47.4%)

Specifying line at 1 or 1.5 actually favors washington though small sample size.
AD and p:HWF and op:HWF and total > 190 and line<2

14-8 (1.00, 63.6%)

**pip2** · 11-04-14, 09:18 AM

This is one from a person named Samantha on the Google group, showing the Suns covering vs Lakers:

AF and p:AL and p:steals < op:steals and p:rebounds < op:rebounds and season > 2008

**pip2** · 11-04-14, 09:29 AM

Originally posted by SportsMind

Really loving this thread, especially to confirm picks that you come to using other methods.

HF and p:AD and p:margin<0 and p:fouls>25 and rest=0 and line>-6 and o:rest>0

35-21 (2.38, 62.5%)
25-30-1 (-0.75, 45.5%)	avg line: -3.1
37-18-1 (5.78, 67.3%)	avg total: 195.6

A quality team with no rest after a tough game in which they weren't expected to win, and they got into foul trouble. The next game they go home and play more loose on defense against a quality opponent who has rest.

Feel free to criticize.

Thanks, that looks great!

**dmitean** · 11-04-14, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by Ronald S.

And I just ran it again with no stipulations on the previous game and it follows the same trend as before! Phenomenal in November, and a slight uptick in January. Anyone have an idea why this is the case?

Actually I think it makes a lot of sense and I was using similar logic, without running the numbers.

The logic is simple. Public/ bookies always add a point or sometimes even two in B2B spots. But, in the beginning of the season, when the teams are still fresh, B2B has zero impact or at least very close to zero and shouldn't be part of the formula. On the other hand, in December/ January, fatigue starts to kick in and then, the numbers on the success rate go down...

**hyahya** · 11-04-14, 09:59 AM

Can someone provide guidance on how I would be able to find the google group? Thanks.

**pip2** · 11-04-14, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by FortySix

AD and p:HWF and op:HWF and total >190

Looking at Knicks ML

Gees, the moneyline is -120, and you have a 600+ sample size giving NY a 71% to win straight up. That really does look inviting.

**pip2** · 11-04-14, 10:01 AM

the sportsdatabase forum on groups . google . com,

**JMon** · 11-04-14, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by hyahya

Can someone provide guidance on how I would be able to find the google group? Thanks.

or from the killersports page there is a link at the bottom.

**hyahya** · 11-04-14, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by pip2

the sportsdatabase forum on groups . google . com,

Thanks Pip2.

**pip2** · 11-04-14, 10:18 AM

Originally posted by Ronald S.

Not crazy about this one... Those include big underdogs too.

AD and p:HWF and op:HWF and total >190 and line<4

63-84 (-1.30, 42.9%)

AD and p:HWF and op:HWF and total >190 and line<3

36-40 (-0.41, 47.4%)

Specifying line at 1 or 1.5 actually favors washington though small sample size.
AD and p:HWF and op:HWF and total > 190 and line<2

14-8 (1.00, 63.6%)

Heh! Nice catch Ronald. I should have read it 10 minutes earlier!

**Ronald S.** · 11-04-14, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by dmitean

Actually I think it makes a lot of sense and I was using similar logic, without running the numbers.

The logic is simple. Public/ bookies always add a point or sometimes even two in B2B spots. But, in the beginning of the season, when the teams are still fresh, B2B has zero impact or at least very close to zero and shouldn't be part of the formula. On the other hand, in December/ January, fatigue starts to kick in and then, the numbers on the success rate go down...

Yep I said something similar in the post right before it but what I was wondering though was why it picked back up in january as opposed to continuing to fade like it did in december... (AD and p:AD was 39-19-1 in January though just AD was a bit more modest at 85-67-4 but still better than December)