New nba power rating system

[eanelson]

System plays were 0-3 yesterday. Losses were ATL, NJN, HOU.

System Record:
Win 34
Loss 22
Push 1
61.40%

[djpremier36]

Base on early line here are the following plays:
DEN - 6 or <

From my calculations I got:

DEN -9 or <

[Formulawiz]

NBA Play tonight

Right now there looks like one play tonight.
DEN - 6.5

[BigMoneyMan]

Before I begin with all the rules as how to use the NBA Power Rating System I would like to mention that I did not create this system and will not take credit for it. This system was developed by Sportrends and they deserve all the credit. I would also like to mention I have used this system for many years now and its made me quite a bit of money. I don't have or keep records that would be too much work for me and my intent is to make money not keep records. So if there is someone here on this forum who has the time to keep the records it would be appreciated.
Now lets get on with the rules.
1. Always make your wages 10 to 15 minutes prior to tip off. Like to see what the public is doing.
2. Never play a game with a double digit line. The win/loss seems to be at 50% so I stay away. Maybe we should not rule this out and keep an eye on it.
3. Dont play any game where team with lower PR is laying pts. Keep an eye on these games.
4. Only play games where PR's in any matchup are more then 1 pt apart.
5. I have also tried adding 3 points for the HC but found it drastically limits the number of plays due to the fact these power ratings are right on and do show where the value is. Again you can experiment with it.
6. Only play games that fall outside a 2 point overlay. If you look at the HOU/LAK game last night it will be obvious to you. Always use last column "Overall PR", LAK PR was 108 - HOU PR 102.5 = LAK = 5.5 (always round up or down). Now add the line of -4, LAK becomes a 1.5. You see the value was not outside the 2 point overlay. The bookies were slick by holding the line at 4 to 4.5 and not going to 5 or more. Therefore HOU was not a play.
7. My feeling is that injuries are irrelevant for the following reasons. The bookies take into account injuries and the publics perception of this and adjust the lines accordingly anyway. We all know that the lines for a particular team would be different if a starter were out as compared if he were playing. Again look at the HOU/LAK game. HOU had 2 major starters out and was a 4 point dog. Do you really think HOU would have been a 4 point dog if all their starters played. No Way!!
Ill try to think of other things as we go along. I am sure I am missing something. Attached is the NBA Power Rating Chart for today.
By the way if you want a good explanation as how the spreadsheet works go to
http://www.sportrends.com/excel%20program.htm

Is my only play on te Bobbies in your system and what was tonight? I agree in most your rules ecspesially the injured players. The diference between starters and third string is minute

[Formulawiz]

NBA PR Chart

Here is todays NBA PR Chart

[Formulawiz]

Plays testerday

Played 3 games last night and went 3-0
Our system 1-0 NBA w/DEN
Our system in college 1-0 w/WYOM
KENTUCKY went from - 9 to - 10 dropped, Rule # 2 & Rule # 6.
IOW ST went from -1 to Pickem dropped, Rule # 3.
Thats why its so important to wait 10 to 15 min prior to tip off. Watch the public, their usually wrong.

Also played sportrends PR play
ORL 104 + 3 hca =107 - IND 95 = ORL = 12 - 9 line = 3, outside 2 pt overlay.

By the way I missed the Christmas system play on ORL yesterday.

My plays will be up later today. As I posted yesterday the record keeping does not reflect my plays using this system but it makes things simpler. EX: on Monday I personally passed the 3 NBA games due to rule #3, but record indicated 0 - 3.

I will keep my own record which is 36 - 19 = 65.5

[peterpan19]

how wasnt hou a play on monday, it was pk or -1 for Hou ?
just wondering, the other 2 were rule 3, ATL had a better PR and got points, and the same for NJ

[NBA Hero]

whats the calculation on okc and minny?

[peterpan19]

OKC game: 93.5 -92.5 - 7.5 = -6.5 -> Mem is a play

Minn game: 96.5 - 99.5 + 1 = -2 -> no play in my oppinion right now, as it is right on 2

Was look like plays right now too, but its too early to tell

[Formulawiz]

how wasnt hou a play on monday, it was pk or -1 for Hou ?
just wondering, the other 2 were rule 3, ATL had a better PR and got points, and the same for NJ

Go back and read the rules. Ill tell you this for the last time. On 1/26
NYK -1, MIA -3 and OKL -1.5. Every team laying pts had a lower PR rating. This is rule # 3. NO PLAY
MIN fell inside the 2 pt overlay

[peterpan19]

well my books show that Hou ended as a pk or -1 -> thats why it would have been a play on my book
so which book do you use wiz ? bc it is so damn close this games when they are around pk, maybe best to lay off this games completely

[Formulawiz]

well my books show that Hou ended as a pk or -1 -> thats why it would have been a play on my book
so which book do you use wiz ? bc it is so damn close this games when they are around pk, maybe best to lay off this games completely

Again your not reading the posts and keep asking the same questions.
Whether the line is pickem or -1 its still falls under rule #3. The better team has to be laying pts. Now Pickem means 0, therefore the better team is laying 0. OK.

Secondly, Here is one of my previous posts to your question

" Great question. I use SBR's site. They have quite a few offshore casinos I use for reference. Lets look at todays ex: MIN was -8.5 when I originally posted. Now 15 minutes before each game I check all the casino lines and if the majority have MIN - 9 which was the case here I back off the game even though I can get -8.5 from BODOG. Some of the main Offshore lines I look at are from Pinnacle, CRIS, The Greek and etc.
One other thought, to be fair, we should use the closing lines where most casinos are in agreement to keep the PR systems win/loss record consistent."

Please remember this.

[jtnguyen79]

formula why dont you just post the picks with the line that you need and that'sthe line you keep for record keeping it just seems you keep getting same questions asked

so just post the plays and the lines if anyone plays any other lines its their fault for not buying that half or 1 pt

best of luck and keep it up

[Formulawiz]

formula why dont you just post the picks with the line that you need and that'sthe line you keep for record keeping it just seems you keep getting same questions asked

so just post the plays and the lines if anyone plays any other lines its their fault for not buying that half or 1 pt

best of luck and keep it up

This system does not work with buying points.

[peterpan19]

ok formula I got it now, wasnt sure what to do with a pk, now I know

[Formulawiz]

NBA plays today

Based on early lines here are todays plays. plays must meet the required min or max lines which already include the 2 pt overlay.
WAS + 8.5 or >
MEM + 3.5 or >
PHI + 5 or >
GS + 6.5 or >

[NBA Hero]

does the play come with filters like avoiding teams with the worst record etc

[Formulawiz]

does the play come with filters like avoiding teams with the worst record etc

In the past I did use a filter. I did not play the last 4 teams with the lowest PR's. But I am not sure if it matters if you look at heir spread records.
OKL 29-16
LAC 20-24
SAC 21-25
MEM 15-28
It seems you have a good idea. Except for OKL maybe we should not play the other teams and only play against them when the play is there.

[NBA Hero]

coz some teams are so poor ats and SU like memphis. maybe when they got their act together then its possible to put our money on them

[eanelson]

System plays were 1-0 yesterday. Win was DEN
System Record:
Win 36
Loss 22
Push 1
62.07%

EDIT: Had to add an extra win b/c I missed cleveland on 1/24 I believe.

[MaurySline]

System plays were 0-3 yesterday. Losses were ATL, NJN, HOU.

System Record:
Win 34
Loss 22
Push 1
61.40%

so its 1-4 in the last two days, tonites should win

[Formulawiz]

so its 1-4 in the last two days, tonites should win

No 1-0 last 2 days if you followed the rules and my plays.
36 - 19 = 65.5 since we started thread

The other record neglects Rule #3 and 4

[Hawk007]

Why don't you people just let him post his plays and keep his own record if he wants.

All these questions, GEEEEEEEEZ, can't follow his plays because of all the GARBAGE in here!!

GL FW

[Achilles15]

System plays were 0-3 yesterday. Losses were ATL, NJN, HOU.

System Record:
Win 34
Loss 22
Push 1
61.40%

so now these losses monday dont count? why does every "system" have an exception for every loss ? "well that didnt count cuz technically..blah blah blah, "

so what is the actual play today ? i will bet the thing and i will tell you if it wins or losses,

[Formulawiz]

so now these losses monday dont count? why does every "system" have an exception for every loss ? "well that didnt count cuz technically..blah blah blah, "

so what is the actual play today ? i will bet the thing and i will tell you if it wins or losses,

You guys have to start reading posts. Look at post 331

[milton50]

1-28 PR and Prophet Picks

Wiz,

I just wanted to confirm these with you. I currently have the following plays in the NBA with both the Prophet software and your PR sheet matching. Of course all will finalize in the final 10-15 minutes before tipoff.

Washington
Memphis (Prophet doesnt like Memphis @ current spread)
Phil
Golden State


NCAA
Michigan
Syracuse
Ohio University

Now the prophet software also gave me Florida St and Colorado St today and the excel PR confirms this but the spread is above 10. In this situation do you still make the plays because the software tells you to or do need both the software and PR sheet to match?

There were others in NCAA hoops that qualified according the PR sheet but these were the only ones where both systems agreed.

~Milton

[Formulawiz]

so now these losses monday dont count? why does every "system" have an exception for every loss ? "well that didnt count cuz technically..blah blah blah, "

so what is the actual play today ? i will bet the thing and i will tell you if it wins or losses,

You need not tell us what games won or lost, thats not your job. Your problem is you need to read posts to get your daily plays and understand how the system works. No one told you to play those games. If you understood the rules you would have skipped them.
Thank you for your input anyway

[Formulawiz]

NBA yesterday

Not too good last night in the NBA 1 -3
College 3 - 3
Took sportrends only NBA PR playa DET won
overall for me a small losing night.

Lost an OT game and should have stayed away from MEM, they really suck

NBA System Record now 37 - 22 = 62.7

[Formulawiz]

Todays NBA-PR Chart

Todays NBA PR Chart

[MJAZER]

new gismo

Hi Guys

I might be out of order here or you already know about it but wsex as a gismo called SideLines which you download and it feeds live updates on injuries and prices, I am just getting into NBA and don’t know the players yet so this could help me and even you guys who know all about these teams

Hope it helps as Formulawiz as mentioned to keep our eyes on movements on the spread within the last 15 mins before the off

[Formulawiz]

NBA Plays today

No NBA plays today

[Achilles15]

yesterday, football jesus 3-0 in NBA, knicks, mavs, and 76ers, what was the chart on these yesterday? anyway, he says he has a play tonite in nba and its free, since there are no plays here , i will play it when it comes out.

[Formulawiz]

yesterday, football jesus 3-0 in NBA, knicks, mavs, and 76ers, what was the chart on these yesterday? anyway, he says he has a play tonite in nba and its free, since there are no plays here , i will play it when it comes out.

No one cares about football Jesus, Football Joesph or Football Mary's plays. This thread is strictly for plays generated by our NBA PR spreadsheet. Start your own thread call Football Jesus and by the way I suggest you have your plays up the day before and not after the fact.

[eanelson]

Formulawiz - You should keep track of the system record from now on. I am not grasping some of the reasons a few of the plays aren't being counted. I think it would be easier if you took care of that.

[Formulawiz]

Formulawiz - You should keep track of the system record from now on. I am not grasping some of the reasons a few of the plays aren't being counted. I think it would be easier if you took care of that.

I will take care of the records from now on. It will be based on the original rules set up in my first post. I thank you for all your help. Just follow my record to make sure there are no error.