"70% math play" system tracking

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  • mundane
    SBR MVP
    • 02-25-08
    • 3592

    #106
    Originally posted by mmike032
    so the plays are Dallas and Atlanta, correct?
    or by" play the other team" it means NJ?
    NJ! the one in green.
    Comment
    • mmike032
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 09-11-08
      • 8905

      #107
      Originally posted by mundane
      NJ! the one in green.
      duhh, I see it now
      Comment
      • mmike032
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-11-08
        • 8905

        #108
        Hawks up to 10.5
        and NJ +3

        does this change the outcome of the system?
        Comment
        • mundane
          SBR MVP
          • 02-25-08
          • 3592

          #109
          Originally posted by pubster77
          Would cleveland be a play?

          cleveland win% = 840
          denver win % = 680

          So if the selected team is cleveland you get 840 -680 = 160
          160/20=8
          8-3=5
          5+1=6 (no play)

          However if denver is the selected team you get 680 -840 = -160
          -160/20=-8
          -8+3 =-5
          -5-1=-6 (play on the cavs).


          but i guess ilgauskaus is injured so its a no play anyways. But just wondering which interpretation is correct.
          i actually made a mistake on that line. shld have been +1. but yeah. ur first calculation is the correct one. u need to start with the team which has the better win% so u'll have a positive number to work with.

          btw, edit ur post and delete the quote on my posted screenshot. i made some mistakes on some calculations. thanks in advance!
          Comment
          • strictlywinners
            Restricted User
            • 07-17-07
            • 3377

            #110
            Originally posted by pubster77
            Would cleveland be a play?

            cleveland win% = 840
            denver win % = 680

            So if the selected team is cleveland you get 840 -680 = 160
            160/20=8
            8-3=5
            5+1=6 (no play)

            However if denver is the selected team you get 680 -840 = -160
            -160/20=-8
            -8+3 =-5
            -5-1=-6 (play on the cavs).

            but i guess ilgauskaus is injured so its a no play anyways. But just wondering which interpretation is correct.
            You can't select Denver as team, doesn't theory say you have to select team with the better record as the percentage that is being subtracted from. I'm just waiting for Jazz to go up to 3.5 so it becomes a play.
            Comment
            • porkchop817
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 11-29-08
              • 531

              #111
              I missed the atlanta play, thanks for the reminder mundane.
              Comment
              • pubster77
                SBR High Roller
                • 04-25-08
                • 215

                #112
                Originally posted by porkchop817
                I missed the atlanta play, thanks for the reminder mundane.
                I dont think atlanta is a play anymore because they are now double digit favourites.

                Also I dont think the system says bet on the jazz because boozer is injured.
                Comment
                • strictlywinners
                  Restricted User
                  • 07-17-07
                  • 3377

                  #113
                  OH yes you are absolutely right, sorry, I wonder how long a team would have to play without a player before they are considered to have a new starting lineup. I.E. Boozer is out for another 3 weeks, technically they have an injury to a starter, in reality they have a new starter by this point. Milsap has kind of filled this roll nicely.
                  Comment
                  • porkchop817
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 11-29-08
                    • 531

                    #114
                    Originally posted by strictlywinners
                    OH yes you are absolutely right, sorry, I wonder how long a team would have to play without a player before they are considered to have a new starting lineup. I.E. Boozer is out for another 3 weeks, technically they have an injury to a starter, in reality they have a new starter by this point. Milsap has kind of filled this roll nicely.

                    Once a team has played one week without that injured player, they are eligible for play. Atleast, thats the way I have interpreted it.
                    Comment
                    • willpies
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 12-18-08
                      • 128

                      #115
                      GAME Philidelphia at washington
                      win loss



                      selected team 11 14 -3 <- enter -3 (away) / +3 (home) other team 4 19 1 <- enter the spread
                      11.30 PLAY





                      SEE ABOVE FOR PLAY OR NO PLAY

                      NOTES: Is a play although brand is injured calculations 0.440 0.174 13.30



                      10.30 11.30




                      Below should say OK! Otherwise the system is fubar!
                      OK!




                      OK!
                      Comment
                      • nick2060
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-28-08
                        • 1051

                        #116
                        why is it a play even though brand is injured? or are you just breaking the rules? I must've missed something
                        Comment
                        • mmike032
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 09-11-08
                          • 8905

                          #117
                          so whats the plays now, lot of mixed messages here.
                          this morning it was ATL, NJ

                          now that the lines have moves ATL is no longer a play, NJ moved to +3.5
                          Comment
                          • madworld
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 08-08-08
                            • 251

                            #118
                            This is what I got:
                            Philly 440 (11/25*100)
                            Washington 174 (4/23 *100)
                            (440-174)/20 =13.3 -3 (away) =10.3 - 1 = 9.3 No Play

                            Originally posted by willpies
                            GAME Philidelphia at washington
                            win loss



                            selected team 11 14 -3 <- enter -3 (away) / +3 (home) other team 4 19 1 <- enter the spread
                            11.30 PLAY





                            SEE ABOVE FOR PLAY OR NO PLAY

                            NOTES: Is a play although brand is injured calculations 0.440 0.174 13.30



                            10.30 11.30




                            Below should say OK! Otherwise the system is fubar!
                            OK!




                            OK!
                            Comment
                            • madworld
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 08-08-08
                              • 251

                              #119
                              __Boston would be a play, but no play because they are a double digit favorite. Atlanta was a play at -9.5, but not -10.5, and New Jersey is at +3.5 and is still a play (-2.33<-1).
                              Comment
                              • mundane
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-25-08
                                • 3592

                                #120
                                Originally posted by nick2060
                                why is it a play even though brand is injured? or are you just breaking the rules? I must've missed something
                                look closely on my screenshot posts (see notes in brown). it's not a play!

                                again, this is not my system. questions and inquiries are bound to happen but unfortunately i dont have the answers. im merely tracking this system to the best of my understanding and using the opening lines as the base numbers. any fluctuations on the spread affecting a play to a non play or vice versa will not be reflected on my tracking thus will not be shown on my initial/official posts. although from time to time i will post 'possible plays' but that's just for leans (and betting purposes) and not official system plays. i will not be held responsible if this system doesn't pan out for you.

                                attached is the excel sheet. plug in the 'current' spread and decide if u want to play them. that's my suggestion for those people who always inquire about (game/s) if it's a play or not bcoz line has moved already. again it will not be considered an official system play. let's just say it's for ur betting purposes.

                                fair enough???
                                Attached Files
                                Comment
                                • willpies
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 12-18-08
                                  • 128

                                  #121
                                  Madworld you give philli one point u subtracted one point
                                  Comment
                                  • Rio DiNero
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-03-08
                                    • 2010

                                    #122
                                    I like the looks of this system, keep up the good work boys. Let's fine tune this thing! Both ATL and BOS became no plays because they were double digit favs, but they both won big!
                                    Comment
                                    • madworld
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 08-08-08
                                      • 251

                                      #123
                                      That was because at my book they were a one point favorite not dog, but I hope you still bet them and won. I took Boston even though they were a double digit and it worked for me
                                      Originally posted by willpies
                                      Madworld you give philli one point u subtracted one point
                                      Comment
                                      • willpies
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 12-18-08
                                        • 128

                                        #124
                                        Great job Mundane if im not mistaken u nabbed 2 out of 2 today
                                        Comment
                                        • mundane
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-25-08
                                          • 3592

                                          #125
                                          Originally posted by willpies
                                          Great job Mundane if im not mistaken u nabbed 2 out of 2 today
                                          not me... the system did it!
                                          Comment
                                          • BeeGirl
                                            SBR Rookie
                                            • 05-22-07
                                            • 38

                                            #126
                                            Mundane,

                                            I understand that this is not your system but much thanks for bringing it to our attention. I have been following and I'm impressed.

                                            However, my only concern is in the equation we use the number 20 in the division. The only relevance I can see that this number has is that the system starts only after the first 20 games of the season. Would it be beneficial to divide by the # of games played instead of the 20? Does anyone think that this would further tighten up the picks?
                                            Comment
                                            • mundane
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-25-08
                                              • 3592

                                              #127
                                              beegirl, im still actually baffled why this system is working (so far, so good). im not sure where that '20' came from or what is it for. my suggestion would be if you could track what u just proposed and post the plays here. let's see how it pans out with the original formula.
                                              Comment
                                              • AdaBarber
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-05-08
                                                • 4424

                                                #128
                                                What's the plays for the day? I don't have excel just yet. Prob in the next two days.
                                                Comment
                                                • AdaBarber
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-05-08
                                                  • 4424

                                                  #129
                                                  I guess there aren't any. 24 Teams played last night. Only game I see is San Antonio and the spread is -10.5 and I don't think I need a formula to cap that game. Toronto sucks badly and they excessively suck against san antonio in san antonio.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mundane
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-25-08
                                                    • 3592

                                                    #130
                                                    12/19 went 2-0!

                                                    12/20 no plays.

                                                    ytd: 8-1 88.89%



                                                    Comment
                                                    • porkchop817
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 11-29-08
                                                      • 531

                                                      #131
                                                      for anyone that doesn't have excel, you can download the program suite "open office." Its freeware and comes with equivalents to all the MS Office programs. It works great, very powerful programs for the $$

                                                      just google Open Office
                                                      Comment
                                                      • McRich
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 10-26-07
                                                        • 961

                                                        #132
                                                        Originally posted by porkchop817
                                                        for anyone that doesn't have excel, you can download the program suite "open office." Its freeware and comes with equivalents to all the MS Office programs. It works great, very powerful programs for the $$

                                                        just google Open Office
                                                        Google also offers a free service called "Google Docs" that allows you to down load Excel docs and open them.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • willpies
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 12-18-08
                                                          • 128

                                                          #133
                                                          Tomorows lines are up!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • mundane
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-25-08
                                                            • 3592

                                                            #134
                                                            12/21

                                                            1 play Dallas -6 at Washington

                                                            please check below. don't forget to read the accompanying 'notes'.
                                                            lemme know if there are any mistakes. im only human.




                                                            Comment
                                                            • AdaBarber
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 12-05-08
                                                              • 4424

                                                              #135
                                                              Thanks guys for the info. I went ahead and took S.A. -10 at home against toronto. S.A. is not the same.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • willpies
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 12-18-08
                                                                • 128

                                                                #136
                                                                Just adding that Dallas line can be found at -5.5 so if dallas wins by 6 it is still a win for the "system"
                                                                Comment
                                                                • mundane
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-25-08
                                                                  • 3592

                                                                  #137
                                                                  Originally posted by AdaBarber
                                                                  Thanks guys for the info. I went ahead and took S.A. -10 at home against toronto. S.A. is not the same.
                                                                  san antonio was never a play.

                                                                  by the way is that sarcasm?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • AdaBarber
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 12-05-08
                                                                    • 4424

                                                                    #138
                                                                    Originally posted by mundane
                                                                    san antonio was never a play.

                                                                    by the way is that sarcasm?
                                                                    No it wasn't. I don't see how I could have been interpreted that way. I capped my first game and I was wrong. That's all. I have been tailing this system since the beginning. Losing it elsewhere but nevertheless, tailing.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • willpies
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 12-18-08
                                                                      • 128

                                                                      #139
                                                                      Another win!!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • pubster77
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 04-25-08
                                                                        • 215

                                                                        #140
                                                                        Originally posted by willpies
                                                                        Another win!!
                                                                        Damn. A few nights ago I picked the Mavs to cover against the Nets knowing full well that it went against this system. Ive learned my lesson. =)

                                                                        This system comes first, then my own handicapping lol. For now anyways
                                                                        Comment
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