Zii's NBA Thread 2013

[Zii]

Okay, thanks.. BOL tonight

Have a good one you too! I've been in a slump lately, but I'm doing my best to catch some 'sunlight' again.

[Zii]

Memphis Grizzlies +8.5 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Toronto Raptors/Indiana Pacers UNDER 186.5 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Houston Rockets/Orlando Magic OVER 213 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Parlay (0.5 Units) - LOSER
Atlanta Hawks ML
Houston Rockets ML

01/03/2013: 3 - 1 - 0
+2.01 Units

YTD: 54 - 48 - 2
-3.87

That's the nigh I was looking for. That parlay was a stupid idea and blew up in my face, but oh well. A bit mad at myself for not playing Pacers, but was a bit too worried about the fact that public was all over them. I will start working on today's car soon after my breakfast (it's now 8 a.m. here in Latvia)

[Zii]

6 out of my 7 leans for 01/03 were accurate!

[Zii]

Early write-up and leans coming in.

Philadelphia 76'ers v. Golden State Warriors
*East v. West meet today at Philadelphia. This is a must win spot for Philadelphia, since they are on record high (this season) 7 game losing streak and playing an awful ball lately. Warriors, on the other hand, are on losing side as well - 3 lost games in a row and they are facing another tough night, since it will be their 4th game and 2nd 'back to back' game within 5 days, the upper side for that is that Golden State had to take a relatively short trip from Boston to Philadelphia.

Philadelphia came out as 2 point home favourites, but that number has dropped to 1 point already, however total came out super high, to my mind, 196.5 points. It will be a tough contest to predict, but, I believe, that some value can be found there.

76'ers L5 ATS record is 1-4 (currently on 2 game ATS losing streak), their YTD ATS record is 25-31-0 (44.6%), which does not speak in favour of Philly much. Philly has covered spread only 8 times out of 34 when facing Western conference opponents.

Golden State Warriors ATS record currently is 30-28-1 (51.7%), which is not great either, but their ability to cover that gap against Eastern conference opponent is quite high - 15-8-0 ATS (65.2%).

If we consider basic statistics then both teams match-up pretty equally, but there are some fields where difference is quite significant (look under "statistics").

Statistics:
- Golden State averages 9.1 points per game more than Philadelphia;
- Philadelphia 76'ers are allowing 5.7 points per game less than Warriors;
- Warriors are collecting 3.3 defensive rebounds more than 76'ers;
- 76'ers are averaging 3 personal fouls less than Warriors per game.
H2H:
- In L4 home side has won 3 out of 4 games (also covering spread);
- Philadelphia has won 3 out 4 games;
- Total went 'UNDER' in 3 out of 4 games.

Additional situational stats:
PHI- Philadelphia have won 7 out of 10 games in a 'home game after 10+ points loss' situation;
- 'OVER' was recorded in 10 out of 17 games when playing 'after 10+ points loss';
- 76'ers have won 3 out of 5 Saturday home games this season (2 loses were agains OKC and MIA).

GSW
- Warriors won 4 out of 7 games when 'playing b2b on the road after a loss';
- Warriors have won 4 out of 7 Saturday road games so far this season.

Overall
- Home side has won only 12 out of 39 times on the first Saturday of the month.

If Philadelphia 76'ers want to take away something from this they must try to slow down the pace and keep the score low, because they won't outscore Warriors straight up. If they will be able to keep them under 100 pts, they might have a chance here. So I'll probably stick with total here, however, we have to keep in mind - that line might drop by a point or two during the day.

My lean is UNDER 196.5 (might variate due to line movement).

[Zii]

Chicago Bulls v. Brooklyn Nets
*Two Eastern conference top teams meeting in Chicago where Bulls will host Brooklyn Nets, who are going on the road for a b2b game after getting struck by Dallas Mavericks on their home floor. Chicago, on the other hand, managed to wipe their home floor with Philadelphia 76'ers the other night and now are waiting for Nets with one day in between. Line opened at -5.5 points for Bulls as home favourites. Total, though, came out as low as it can get set at 177.5 points.

Total for this game is the lowest total given by books, when these two teams are playing against each other, since year 2004, when it was even 170 for one game. That is why I won't touch this one tonight, it seems a bit too fishy.
(*side note: both teams have gone UNDER in 4 out of 5 last games)

However, I see some real value in that spread. Both teams are great teams, but struggle to cover those spreads given by books from time to time. Bulls ATS record 22-33-0 sits at 43.1% overall, while Nets ATS record 26-30-3 looks a bit better at 46.4%. Since it is a bit useless to look for any strong points, I checked wether I can find any flaws and I did find something in favour of Brooklyn. These are the numbers you might want to take into consideration:

- Bulls ATS record 'after a win' 10-22-0 (31.2%)
- Bulls ATS record 'as home favourites' 6-18-0 (25%)

Stat-wise both teams are levelling out each other pretty well:

- Nets are scoring 95.2 PPG, Bulls - 92.6 PPG;
- Bulls are allowing 91.3 PPG, Nets - 94.9 PPG.

All other aspects are pretty equal. Nothing is really popping out.

Both teams have met this season 2 times already and series are tied at 1-1 right now. Both games were close ones 1 point victory for Chicago at home, 4 point win for Nets at home. In previous 5 meeting between these two teams home side has won 3 out of 5 games; Bulls have won 3 out of 5 games by average margin of 4.2 points.

Alternative situational stats:
- Chicago Bulls have won only 2 out of 5 games this season when listed as '(-4) to (-6) point home favourites';
- Chicago has won 3 out of 8 home games when facing a team with winning road record.

Injuries:
- L. Deng (CHI) listed as 'PROBABLE'
- R. Hamilton (CHI) listed as 'QUESTIONABLE'

L. Deng is Bulls top scorer and R. Hamilton is averaging double digits as well, if one of them is out or even both, then it might cause some trouble for Chicago and Brooklyn will take advantage of that.

All in all, I doubt that this game will be decided by more than 3 to 5 points. Brooklyn will be highly motivated to bounce back after loss against Dallas and will try to snatch that win on the so that they can afterwards win the series with Chicago at home. And I actually have ar really strong feeling that they are more than capable of winning this one straight up, but to be on the safe side I'm gonna take those extra points as well.

My lean for this game is Brooklyn Nets +5.5.

[Zii]

Milwaukee Bucks v. Toronto Raptors
*Bucks are hosting Toronto Raptors who are on the road for a b2b game after that hopeless loss against Pacers. This one is a must win spot for Milwaukee to get on the other side of those .500. Bucks seem like they finally found their game again by winning last two road games agains Houston and Dallas. Raptors, on the other hand, look miserable throughout - they can not score and they can not defend either, Bucks will outscore them from beyond the arc and penetrate right to the basket. I just can not see Raptors stepping up for this one in particular situation, it seems like they are done playing basketball this season.

Statistics:
- Milwaukee Bucks are currently on a 2 game winning streak;
- Toronto Raptors 'enjoying' 3 game losing streak;
- Bucks have won 9 out of 10 last meetings between these two teams, covering spread in 8 of them;

Toronto, however, currently has a better ATS record:
- Overall: 30-28-1; MIL: 27-29-0
- After a loss: 19-15-1; MIL (after a win): 12-15-0
- As away underdog: 8-7-0; MIL (as home favourite): 4-3-0
- B2B: 10-3-0 (this one is impressive, but I highly doubt that they will improve it tonight); MIL (2 days off): 8-8-0
- Conference games: 18-14-1; MIL: 20-17-0

Even though, a lot of trends seem to be in favour of Toronto Raptors, I'm gonna go against them in this case. I just don't believe, that Toronto can bounce back going on a b2b game on the road after that double digit loss yesterday.

My only concern is that B. Jennings and M. Dunleavy are both listed as 'PROBABLE' for Buck, but so does R. Gay for Toronto. This is what I'll keep my eye on.

My lean for this game is Milwaukee Bucks -5.

*It is worth considering OVER 200 as well.

[Zii]

Damn, was out and did not manage to post my plays here but locked them in from a cell phone.

Philadelphia 76'ers UNDER 199 (0.5 Units) - LOCKED

Brooklyn Nets +5.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zii]

LIVE - Philadelphia 76'ers +3.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zii]

Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zii]

God damn it, one possession too many to at least push that UNDER.

Brooklyn is done.


1 - 2 - 0 so far

[Zii]

Portland Trail Blazers 1Q -2.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zii]

LIVE - Portland Trail Blazers 1H Total UNDER 101.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zii]

HOLLLYYY S*IT, WHAT DID BUCKS JUST DO!
With that bombshell I'm out tonight and will try to sleep a bit since I've been up all night saving my today's record and it's already 6 a.m. here where I live See you all tomorrow!

02/03/2013: 4 - 2 - 0
+2.1 Units

YTD: 58 - 50 - 2
-1.77 Units

[Zii]

Will take a closer look on these games today:

Miami Heat v. NY Knicks
Oklahoma City Thunder v. LA Clippers
Dallas Mavericks v. Houston Rockets
Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls (If I will be able to overcome the disturbance by the fact that Noah is retarded, heh..)
Atlanta Hawks v. LA Lakers

I'm not gonna post very detailed write-ups, though, because I had only 4 hours of sleep last night because of NBA and I'm simply too tired to do that and will probably catch some sleep time during the day. Stay tuned!

[Zii]

Early Leans (03/02/2013):

Miami Heat v. New York Knicks
*Big time match up early today at Madison Square Garden - Knicks hosting Miami Heat. Let's admit there is really nothing much to say about this one, if we look at all ATS trends, then they look pretty alike. Knick, though, have won 2 out of 2 games as home underdogs this season, but Heat are red hot right now and not stopping at 13, they need that 14th against Knicks badly, since New York blew them up two times already this season. It's all about this one game today, no historical and no future trends matter, Heat on the wave v. mediocre playing Knicks. Do Knicks have what it takes to get a 'hat-trick' today? I highly doubt it, but, if they do, I'm willing to pay that 1 unit to witness it tonight.

Locking in already - Miami Heat -4 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zii]

LIVE - NYK/MIA Under 198.5 (0.5 Units) - LOCKED

[Zii]

LIVE - NYK/MIA Under 202.5 (0.5 Units) - LOCKED

[Zii]

OKC/LAC Over 204 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zii]

Ho, ho, hoooo!!! How's 3 - 0 for a start?

[Zii]

Hedged that over in OKC/LAC game, with a chance to hit them both, though.

LIVE - OKC/LAC Under 208.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zii]

AAAAhhhhh, soooo close...If only Paul would had missed that last one with 1.0 sec to go. But I'll take that 4 - 1 as well. Finally got my overall back on the bright side. I'm out for tonight, what is enough is enough. See you all tomorrow!

03/02/2013: 4 - 1 - 0
+1.91 Units

YTD: 62 - 51 - 2
+0.14 Units

[Zii]

11 - 4 (73.3%) since the beginning of March.

[Zii]

Early leans (04/03/2013)
New Orleans Hornets (OVER 194)
Denver Nuggets (UNDER 212)

Any thoughts? I would like to hear your opinions or suggestions as well. Other leans will follow later on.

[HoldinMygroin]

Its a difficult game card tonight in my opinion.. I may take the night off, although my book have just 3 games out right now, the others are OTB at the moment. Will wait to see if I find any value when the other games comes out.

Hawks is b2b against Nuggets.. Will it effect their defense?

[Christo0pher]

Hope to bounce back tonight with just four games in todays card.

[Zii]

Leans (04/03/2013):
Milwaukee Bucks -4
Miami Heat -9
Atlanta Hawks +10.5

[Zii]

And again I messed up and fell asleep yesterday, before I managed to lock in my plays...Pass night for me. Small card today, will try to get the best out of it.

[Zii]

Early leans (05/03/2013):
Boston Celtics (-2)
Denver Nuggets (UNDER 222)

Thoughts?

[Zii]

So here we go!

05/03/2013:

Denver Nuggets -4 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

BOS/PHI UNDER 184 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

LAL/OKC OVER 212.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Good luck to all of you tonight!

[Zii]

Adding:

Los Angeles Lakers +9 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zii]

05/03/2013: 2 - 2 - 0
-0.2 Units

YTD: 60 - 52 - 2
-0.06 Units

[Zii]

Huge card today, might come up with some parlays as well. Stay tuned!

[Zii]

Early leans (06/03/2013):
New York Knicks (-3)
Miami Heat (OVER 202)
Los Angeles Lakers (-1)
LA Clippers (OVER 204)
Utah Jazz (-1)

Your thoughts, please?

[HoldinMygroin]

Any locked plays?

[Zii]

Any locked plays?

Not yet. Now I'm busy with UEFA CL, will get to NBA afterwards