Zii's NBA Thread 2013

[Bostongambler]

Good job ziti. Good luck today.

[Zii]

Rough card for tonight with some really huge spreads. Anyway, trying to pull the best out of it. Some lines are not yet open, so I'm gonna post few early leans I have so far.

Early leans (04/02/2013):
Washington Wizards/LA Clippers: Over 187.5
LA Clippers: -3
Detroit Pistons: +10
Miami Heat/Charlotte Bobcats: Under 199.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: -3
Utah Jazz: Under 200.5
Orlando Magic: +8

*Not final and will be updated!

[Zii]

04/02/2013

Washington Wizards/LA Clippers Over 187.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Detroit Pistons +11 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Utah Jazz/Sacramento Kings Under 200.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Minnesota Timberwolves -3 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Miami Heat/Charlotte Bobcats Under 198.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Orlando Magic +9 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Locked and loaded fellas!

[Zii]

Washington Wizards/LA Clippers Over 187.5 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Detroit Pistons +11 (1 Unit) - LOSER
Utah Jazz/Sacramento Kings Under 200.5 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Minnesota Timberwolves -3 (1 Unit) - LOSER
Miami Heat/Charlotte Bobcats Under 198.5 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Orlando Magic +9 (1 Unit) - LOSER

Last night: 3 - 3 - 0
-0.3 Units

YTD: 16 - 17 - 1
-5.92 Units

It almost seems like O/U is my thing according to previous two days results

[Zii]

Early leans (05/02/2013):
Denver Nuggets/Milwaukee Bucks: Under 214.5
*Might even lock this in right now before that number starts to decrease.

Other leans and picks will be posted later though.

[Zii]

7 - 0
O/U record in past 2 days

[Zii]

Early leans (05/02/2013):
Denver Nuggets/Milwaukee Bucks: Under 214.5
Phoenix Suns: +8.5 & Over 182.5
Golden State Warriors: +2

These are my early leans from the first glance on todays card. Any useful comments, suggestions or feedback would be appreciated.

[Italy]

like suns +8,5..

if delfino and lin won't play,i like also GSW more the points

[Italy]

like suns +8,5..

if delfino and lin won't play,i like also GSW more the points

anyway risky bets in my opinion

[Zii]

anyway risky bets in my opinion

it would be such a good situation, if there were bets with no risk. Yeah, but I got your point

[Zii]

Went 4 - 0 last night (including one 2 team and one 5 team parlay), but due to SBR technical problems was not able to connect to the forum to post my plays. Will print-screen and post here my bookmakers transcripts of my picks, so that I can include them in my NBA record.

5 Team Parlay (0.2 Units) WINNER:
HOU -2.5
PHO +8.5
IND
DEN
LAL +5

2 Team Parlay (1 Unit) WINNER:
LAL
IND

HOU -2.5 (1 Unit) WINNER

MEM/PHO Over 182.5 (1 Unit) WINNER

Last night: +4.5 Units

YTD: 20 - 17 - 1
-1.42 Units

[Zii]

Early leans (06/02/2013):
Washington Wizards: +4
Miami Heat/Houston Rockets: Under 208.5
Philadelphia 76'ers/Indiana Pacers: Over 181.5

Maybe will add something more, but for me it will be a small NBA card for tonight, since I'll be all over football (soccer) international world friendlies. Comments and your thoughts on leans will be appreciated.

[Zii]

Some kind of nonsense is happening second night in a row, because I can not access the forums when I want to post my final picks before I go to sleep (because obviously I do live in different time zone). For the record - it was 2 - 2 night for me and 0.2 Unit Loss.

YTD: 22 - 19 - 1
-1.62 Units

[Zii]

I don't know what on the earth is going on, but I can't access forum in the evening and early in the morning (according to time zone I'm living in) and it has been like that for past few days. If it happens again tonight, in future I will prepare my plays as early as possible so that this thread does not become useless, outdated information. I apologise to those who actually followed my picks!

[Zii]

Leans (08/02/2013):
Washington Wizards/Brooklyn Nets: Over 185.5
Utah Jazz/Chicago Bulls: Over 184.5
New Orleans Hornets: +4.5
Houston Rockets: -7
Golden State Warriors: +3.5
Cleveland Cavaliers: -6.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: +6.5
Oklahoma City Thunder/Phoenix Suns: Over 205.5

These are just leans and final picks will follow in 3 hours. Any comments or suggestions will be appreciated!

[Zii]

08/02/2013:

Houston Rockets -6.5 (2 Units) - LOCKED

New Orleans Hornets +5 (1.5 Units) - LOCKED

Washington Wizards -1 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Washington Wizards/Brooklyn Nets Over 185.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Utah Jazz/Chicago Bulls Over 184.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

My final picks for the night. Since it is my 20th birthday tonight, I'll try to prepare a present for myself tonight. Good luck and have fun all of you!

[Zii]

Houston Rockets -6.5 (2 Units) - WINNER
New Orleans Hornets +5 (1.5 Units) - WINNER
Washington Wizards -1 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Washington Wizards/Brooklyn Nets Over 185.5 (1 Unit) - LOSER
Utah Jazz/Chicago Bulls Over 184.5 (1 Unit) - LOSER

Last night: 3 - 2 - 0
+1.77 Units

YTD: 25 - 21 - 1
+0.15 Units

Not the best night and not the worst ether. Two multiple unit plays pulled me out of red in YTD record and that is enough for one night. Will try to build up the green line tonight a little bit more.

[Zii]

Early leans (09/02/2013):
Cleveland Cavaliers/Denver Nuggets: Under 216

[Zii]

Charlotte Bobcats: +9
Dallas Mavericks: -5.5
Sacramento Kings: +1

NB! These are only leans, final picks will follow.

[Zii]

09/02/2013:

Dallas Mavericks -5.5 (1.5 Units) - LOCKED

Cleveland Cavaliers/Denver Nuggets Under 215.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Denver Nuggets -5.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Sacramento Kings ML (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Charlotte Bobcats +9.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Five picks for me tonight - tail them or fade them. Best of luck!

[Zii]

Dallas Mavericks -5.5 (1.5 Units) - WINNER
Cleveland Cavaliers/Denver Nuggets Under 215.5 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Denver Nuggets -5.5 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Sacramento Kings ML (1 Unit) - WINNER
Charlotte Bobcats +9.5 (1 Unit) - LOSER

Last night (09/02/2013): 4 - 1 - 0
+2.9 Units

YTD: 29 - 22 - 1
+3.05 Units

Rolling!

[Zii]

Early leans (10/02/2013):
New York Knicks: -3.5
Memphis Grizzlies/Minnesota Timberwolves: Under 185
Boston Celtics: -2
New Orleans Hornets: +4.5
Phoenix Suns: +9

Here are my leans after the first glance on today's card. However, will follow line movement and do some deeper stat analysis later.

[Italy]

great work last night,congrats...I still don't know why i played also a parlay...could be 2-0 instead of 2-1

good luck

[Zii]

great work last night,congrats...I still don't know why i played also a parlay...could be 2-0 instead of 2-1

good luck

Thanks man! Any early thoughts about today's card?

[Italy]

I still have to check more stats,injuries and schedules...but at first glance I like minnesota +9,5..I mean,memphis can cover (ats stats are in favour of memphis),but they are very inconsistent: they lost to suns and won to GSW for example...and the spread seems high...like NY at home,but clippers can came back to the victory in every moment..finally I know hornets are a good ats team...but I don't trust fade toronto at home...and I think I'll stay away from suns-thunder

[Zii]

I still have to check more stats,injuries and schedules...but at first glance I like minnesota +9,5..I mean,memphis can cover (ats stats are in favour of memphis),but they are very inconsistent: they lost to suns and won to GSW for example...and the spread seems high...like NY at home,but clippers can came back to the victory in every moment..finally I know hornets are a good ats team...but I don't trust fade toronto at home...and I think I'll stay away from suns-thunder

Hornets ar so hot when it comes to ATS. Like them a lot lately

[Bostongambler]

Good luck Ziti

[Zii]

Will post live picks for early NY Knicks/LA Clippers game! Stay tuned!

[Zii]

NY Knicks/LA Clippers Under 192 (1.5 Units) - LOCKED

[Zii]

Miami Heat/LA Lakers Over 202.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

[Zii]

Locking in late plays.

Boston Celtics -2 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Boston Celtics/Denver Nuggets Under 206.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Orlando Magic +3 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Minnesota Timberwolves +9 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Houston Rockets -6 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

Brooklyn Nets +2.5 (1 Unit) - LOCKED

New Orleans Hornets +4.5 (1.5 Units) - LOCKED

[Zii]

NY Knicks/LA Clippers Under 192 (1.5 Units) - WINNER
Miami Heat/LA Lakers Over 202.5 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Boston Celtics -2 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Boston Celtics/Denver Nuggets Under 206.5 (1 Unit) - LOSER
Orlando Magic +3 (1 Unit) - WINNER
Minnesota Timberwolves +9 (1 Unit) - LOSER
Houston Rockets -6 (1 Unit) - LOSER
Brooklyn Nets +2.5 (1 Unit) - LOSER
New Orleans Hornets +4.5 (1.5 Units) - LOSER

Last night: 4 - 5 - 0
-1.2 Units

YTD: 33 - 27 - 1
+1.85 Units

Good start followed by a disaster. Red night for me, but I see a lot of value in todays games.

[GreenT]

Monday's greens will make us forget Sunday night's reds...

[Zii]

Monday's greens will make us forget Sunday night's reds...

Hopefully, hopefully man. Btw will post my leans supported by some analytical write-up for todays card in an hour.

[Zii]

Early leans (11/02/2013):

Charlotte Bobcats/Boston Celtics
*Boston going on road after a though win over Denver for a b2b game against Bobcats. Even though, Celts seem to be hot lately, I can predict that they might run out of fire-powder in Charlotte. Boston are on 7 game winning streak right now, on the other side Bobcats - 7 loses in a row, and this is the game when both streaks end. What concerns me about Celts is their ATS cover percentage 'as a road favourites' - only 25% covered ATS. I really do believe that this might be the game where Bobcats will show that they are actually a basketball team.
Lean: Charlotte Bobcats +4

Cleveland Cavaliers/Minnesota Timberwolves
*Even though, Cavaliers do look good lately, I predict, that Puppies will stay within a spread or even win this one. The line moved from -5.5 to -7 in favour of Cavaliers and public is all over them now, that is why I like Minny here even more.
Lean: Minnesota Timberwolves +7

Detroit Pistons/New Orleans Hornets
*It my sound stupid and biased, but I like Hornets and their ability to cover spreads a lot, covering the spread with high 66.7% as 'road underdogs'. However, what concerns me is the fact that they are b2b against Pistons who had a day off and playing really well last couple of games. Over in this game looks really attractive though and I'm leaning towards it more, if I put something on this game at all.
Lean: Over 194.5

Milwaukee Bucks/Washington Wizards
*I know a lot of you will probably fade me (if I play it) with this one, and it is really hard to go against Wizards at this point, their ATS cover percentage is outstanding (taking into account all the factors for todays game), but, on the other hand, this is such a huge match for Bucks, if we look back at their performance lately. They are on the edge and if they don't pull themselves out of the slump now then I don't know if they should carry on playing basketball.
Leans: Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 & Under 197.5

Indiana Pacers/Brooklyn Nets
*All I can say about this matchup is that it is screaming UNDER! Over/Under trend for both teams is without any doubts saying that this is going under. This is one of those 'low total' trap games in todays card and a lot of public will be on over, but it will definitely be a low scoring game, especially, for Nets who will not be able to recover after a blow-out loss yesterday against Spurs not even playing with all their best resources.
Lean: Under 183.5

Dallas Mavericks/Atlanta Hawks
*What is interesting about this match-up is that Hawks have not once covered ATS coming out after 2-3 days off (0 - 10). Dallas rolling big right now and will cover this as well against Hawks struggling on the road. Over looks good as well.
Lean: Dallas Mavericks -4.5 & Over 202.5

NB! These are only leans for now, final plays still to come! Comments and your thought will be appreciated!