Against the Spread Fade System Thread

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  • primetimej
    SBR High Roller
    • 11-23-12
    • 141

    #1
    Against the Spread Fade System Thread
    I have been using a few different systems lately trying to get a feel for which one garners the best results and so far during the season it has been this. Basically what we are looking teams that have covered ATS a few games in a row vs teams that lost ATS a few games in a row, and fading the team that covered. The magic number for one team is four games in a row, and the magic number for two teams that play eachother is 4 games in a row. Example if Team A covers two in a row and they are playing team B who hasn't covered there last two games, the play would be team B. There will be 3 different plays that are for 1, 2, and 3 units. I judge this based on opening line, so if the line has jumped two points before tip-off it means nothing to me. I want the line that originated from the books themselves not based on the public line movement, however in most cases the public bets against this system anyway moving the line in our favor. I don't care about injuries, back to backs, etc. The books account for all this when the line originates.

    1 Unit Play - Team that have covered ATS 4 in a row or team that has lost ATS 4 in a row. Fade the winning team ATS or play the losing team ATS to win. If the combined ATS between both teams is 4 then fade the winning team. Ex. Team A has covered ATS 3 in a row vs Team B who lost the last game ATS or two and two. If streaks goes beyond 4, the play becomes a 2 Unit play against that team for the next game. (Since December 1, this is 12-7 ATS)

    2 Unit play - Teams that have covered ATS 5 in a row or team that has lost ATS 5 in a row. Fade the winning team ATS or play the losing team ATS to win. Same rule applies from 1 unit play with the combination of both the winning and losing teams ATS. If streak goes beyond 5, the play becomes a 3 unit play against that team for the next game. (Since December 1 this is 4-0 ATS)

    3 Unit play - Teams that have covered ATS 6 in a row or team that has lost ATS 6 in a row. Fade the winning team ATS or play the losing team ATS to win. Same rule applies from 1 unit play with the combination of both the winning and losing teams ATS. If streak goes beyond 6, the play becomes a 3 unit play every time until the streak breaks. (Since December 1 this is 1-0 ATS)

    Another example is the Thunder last night fell into the 2 Unit play category. They lost their last 4 ATS, and the Spurs covered their last game. This totaled to 5 making it a 2 Unit play.

    Let me know how you guys feel about this. Follow or fade the system, either way good luck in all your plays.
  • primetimej
    SBR High Roller
    • 11-23-12
    • 141

    #2
    Tonight the plays below fall into the system

    1 Unit Play
    Bobcats
    Bobcats vs Lakers
    Bobcats 0-2 ATS in last 2
    Lakers 2-0 ATS in last 2

    2 Unit Play
    Bucks
    Pacers vs Bucks
    Pacers 4-0 ATS in last 4
    Bucks 0-1 ATS in last 1

    Spurs
    Spurs vs Nuggets
    Spurs 0-1 ATS in last 1
    Nuggers 4-0 ATS in last 4

    Waiting on lines to come out for the three games to finalize.
    Comment
    • Riceboi
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-03-11
      • 857

      #3
      good luck, i hope you do good.
      Comment
      • primetimej
        SBR High Roller
        • 11-23-12
        • 141

        #4
        Thanks Riceboi, good luck with your picks as well!

        Lines are out so here's the games for tonight. With this system pushes are no good as we are tracking teams win/losses ATS. So, always buy a half point if the line is sitting at a flat number, and with regards to grading games that aren't getting bet, if they sit at a flat number I always add the 1/2 point to the favorite, as I assume the public to move the line more often than not for the favorite.

        1 Unit
        Bobcats +12.5 (Buy half)

        2 Units
        Bucks -2.5
        Spurs +2.5 (Buy half)
        Comment
        • altieriflyers
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 07-23-12
          • 777

          #5
          Best of luck primetimej
          Comment
          • figue
            SBR MVP
            • 07-23-10
            • 2524

            #6
            good luck
            Comment
            • k4cowboys4k
              SBR High Roller
              • 05-31-12
              • 200

              #7
              Goodluck, how has it done so far this year?
              Comment
              • primetimej
                SBR High Roller
                • 11-23-12
                • 141

                #8
                thanks for the best wishes guys!

                k4cowboys - thanks for the post, since December 1, (which was when I started this)
                1 unit plays are 12-7.
                2 unit plays are 4-0.
                3 Unit plays are 1-0.
                Comment
                • Pweasecova
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 12-17-12
                  • 74

                  #9
                  Good luck!
                  Comment
                  • primetimej
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 11-23-12
                    • 141

                    #10
                    1 Unit Play
                    Bobcats +12.5 - Win

                    2 Unit Play
                    Bucks -2.5 - Win
                    Spurs +2.5 - Lose

                    YTD 2-1
                    +1 Unit

                    2-1 on the night. I will post the plays I see for tonight once I add in the games from last night to my spreadsheet.
                    Comment
                    • primetimej
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 11-23-12
                      • 141

                      #11
                      Three games tonight fall into the system plays. There is one 3 Unit play tonight which are rare with this system. 3 unit plays are only 1-0 since December 1.

                      Pistons
                      Celtics
                      76ers

                      1 Unit Play
                      Celtics -8.5

                      Celtics 0-4 ATS in last four

                      2 Unit Play
                      76ers +7.5

                      76ers 0-4 ATS in last four
                      Rockets 1-0 ATS in last game

                      3 Unit Play
                      Pistons +2.5

                      Pistons 0-2 ATS in last two
                      Raptors 4-0 ATS in last four.
                      Comment
                      • ShotgunRua
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 09-12-12
                        • 376

                        #12
                        I love it! Seems to be working so far, best of luck mate!
                        Comment
                        • primetimej
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 11-23-12
                          • 141

                          #13
                          thanks Rua, best of luck with your plays tonight and moving forward!
                          Comment
                          • laca07
                            SBR Hustler
                            • 11-20-12
                            • 61

                            #14
                            Have you backtested? Would be interesting to see those numbers. BOL.
                            Comment
                            • primetimej
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 11-23-12
                              • 141

                              #15
                              hey laca,

                              Only since December 1 and the numbers have been overall pretty good, (see first post). Time will determine if the system will work or not. Thanks and best of luck to you as well.
                              Comment
                              • Pweasecova
                                SBR Hustler
                                • 12-17-12
                                • 74

                                #16
                                you can look at old stats to see how the system would have done in the past. Takes out the guess work by giving you a larger sample size.
                                Comment
                                • primetimej
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 11-23-12
                                  • 141

                                  #17
                                  good point cova ill look into thanks!
                                  Comment
                                  • degengamble
                                    SBR Rookie
                                    • 12-03-12
                                    • 39

                                    #18
                                    Interesting system - I think back testing is key to figure out if additional filters are required
                                    Comment
                                    • primetimej
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 11-23-12
                                      • 141

                                      #19
                                      thanks gamble, I'll do some backtesting this weekend.

                                      Last night Stats

                                      1 Unit Play
                                      Celtics -8.5 - Win

                                      2 Unit Play
                                      76ers +7.5 - Lose

                                      3 Unit Play
                                      Pistons +2.5 - Lose

                                      Night Stats
                                      1-2
                                      -4 Units

                                      YTD 3-3
                                      -3 Units

                                      Slow start, but these losses open up a few extra opportunities for the next games, seeing as a few winning streaks ATS did not break (Pistons, 76ers)
                                      Comment
                                      • primetimej
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 11-23-12
                                        • 141

                                        #20
                                        Tonight the play is the Trail Blazers, just waiting on a line.

                                        3 Unit Play
                                        Trail Blazers
                                        Nuggets 5-0 ATS in last 5
                                        Trail Blazers 0-1 ATS in last game.

                                        Play or fade either way best of luck!
                                        Comment
                                        • primetimej
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 11-23-12
                                          • 141

                                          #21
                                          Spread is out.

                                          3 Unit Play
                                          Trail Blazers +5 1/2
                                          Comment
                                          • primetimej
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 11-23-12
                                            • 141

                                            #22
                                            3 Unit Play
                                            Trail Blazers +5 1/2 - Win

                                            1 Unit Plays - 2-0 +2.00 Units
                                            2 Unit Plays - 1-2 -2.20 Units
                                            3 Unit Plays - 1-1 -0.30 Units
                                            YTD - 4-3 -50. Units

                                            Gotta add all the games to my sheets, and I'll post the plays once I have them.
                                            Comment
                                            • primetimej
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 11-23-12
                                              • 141

                                              #23
                                              1 Unit Play
                                              Mavericks +10.5
                                              Mavericks 0-1 ATS in last 1
                                              Grizzlies 3-0 ATS in last three

                                              2 Unit Play
                                              Pistons -5.5 (Buy half point)
                                              Wizards 2-0 ATS in last 2
                                              Pistons 0-3 ATS in last 3
                                              76ers +2.5
                                              76ers 0-5 ATS in last 5.

                                              3 Unit Play
                                              Magic +3.5
                                              Magic 0-1 ATS in last 1
                                              Raptors 5-0 ATS in last 5


                                              A two team tease on the 3 unit plays may be added a bit later as well, just waiting to see line movement.
                                              BOL to all tonight!
                                              Comment
                                              • primetimej
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 11-23-12
                                                • 141

                                                #24
                                                I removed the Teaser, as Thunderous pointed out a grading mistake on my end.
                                                Comment
                                                • Pweasecova
                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                  • 12-17-12
                                                  • 74

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by primetimej
                                                  3 Unit Play
                                                  Trail Blazers +5 1/2 - Win

                                                  1 Unit Plays - 2-0 +2 Units
                                                  2 Unit Plays - 1-2 -2 Units
                                                  3 Unit Plays - 1-1 +0 Units
                                                  YTD - 4-3 - +0 Units

                                                  Gotta add all the games to my sheets, and I'll post the plays once I have them.
                                                  do you not account for juice?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Blazer12
                                                    SBR Hustler
                                                    • 11-19-12
                                                    • 77

                                                    #26
                                                    great pick last night!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • primetimej
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 11-23-12
                                                      • 141

                                                      #27
                                                      good point cova, missed that. I updated it thanks!

                                                      thanks blazer!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • thunderous
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 06-05-12
                                                        • 1870

                                                        #28
                                                        Hawks are not 1-0 ATS, they lost to thunder in their last game.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • primetimej
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 11-23-12
                                                          • 141

                                                          #29
                                                          wow good call thundererous. I had in my spreadsheet at +6 92 100 and tagged the hawks as the ATS winner. I changed the sheets and now downgraded the 76ers to a 2 Unit play, as now they only qualify for that. I also pulled down the teaser as it no longer falls in-line with the plays. I would leave the plays as his, but then the system would give false results win or lose. Thanks again!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • thunderous
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 06-05-12
                                                            • 1870

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by primetimej
                                                            wow good call thundererous. I had in my spreadsheet at +6 92 100 and tagged the hawks as the ATS winner. I changed the sheets and now downgraded the 76ers to a 2 Unit play, as now they only qualify for that. I also pulled down the teaser as it no longer falls in-line with the plays. I would leave the plays as his, but then the system would give false results win or lose. Thanks again!
                                                            You are welcome , liking most of your plays just worried about 76ers
                                                            Comment
                                                            • primetimej
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 11-23-12
                                                              • 141

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by thunderous
                                                              You are welcome , liking most of your plays just worried about 76ers
                                                              ya, I see the concern. Also, the consensus is that the public is pounding the hawks, yet the line moved the other way. Open at sixers +2.5 and now is sixers +2, but we shall see. Best of luck with your plays tonight.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • degengamble
                                                                SBR Rookie
                                                                • 12-03-12
                                                                • 39

                                                                #32
                                                                Well it's generally a good idea to fade the public - the fact that the public bet was on ATL - and the system called to bet Sixers only reinforces the play IMO
                                                                Comment
                                                                • primetimej
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 11-23-12
                                                                  • 141

                                                                  #33
                                                                  1 Unit Play
                                                                  Mavericks +10.5 - WIN

                                                                  2 Unit Play
                                                                  Pistons -5.5 - WIN
                                                                  76ers +2.5 - WIN

                                                                  3 Unit Play
                                                                  Magic +3.5 - WIN

                                                                  1 Unit Plays - 3-0 +3 Units
                                                                  2 Unit Plays - 3-2 +1.5 Units
                                                                  3 Unit Plays - 2-1 +2.7 Units
                                                                  YTD - 8-3 +6.2 Units
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • k4cowboys4k
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 05-31-12
                                                                    • 200

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Officially my new favorite thread , thanks primetime
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • primetimej
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 11-23-12
                                                                      • 141

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Great night last night. I certainly don't have expectations like this, though these numbers have been over 70% since 12/1, so we'll see how this continues to progress.

                                                                      Tonight here's the plays

                                                                      1 Unit Play
                                                                      Jazz +9.5
                                                                      Jazz 0-1 ATS in last game
                                                                      Heat 3-0 ATS in last 3
                                                                      Cavs +8.5 (Buy half)
                                                                      Cavs 0-3 ATS in last 3
                                                                      Bucks 1-0 ATS in last game
                                                                      Suns +3.5 (Buy half)
                                                                      Suns 0-4 ATS in last 4.

                                                                      3 Unit Play
                                                                      Hawks -3.5
                                                                      Bulls 2-0 ATS in last 2
                                                                      Hawks 0-4 ATS in last 4.

                                                                      BOL to all tonight.
                                                                      Comment
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