nba chase 12/13

**J.M. Disciple** · 02-05-13, 11:23 AM

Some people like chase because it only takes 1 game to recover all your losses, but there is more risk to it. With the labby you are still down money when you lose A-B-C and win D. 10-10-10-10-20-30-40 (D win 50). You are still down 40 at this point. Labby line just carries onto the next series though. Chase is better until you get a couple of losses then everyone freaks out. No one really freaks out with the labby. Say this system goes 200-3, then yes chase is better. If you go 100-3 though you are only up like 50 units and I believe Labby is better at that point.

You can start with any amount of numbers on your line that you want. 4-6-8-10 or even 2. When I use to play baccarat I would just start with 1#. For example this series, I would basically chase A B, then C is when labby basically takes effect.

Labby is also meant for systems with low juice (-110) or under. Systems that have like -150 or even -300 juice its basically still a chase!

For systems like JM that does not have a lot of plays each day, I would prefer a labby to recover losses faster. I believe system is actually down this year chasing when you buy 3 points. The 7/5 system though is made for loss recovery so the system is up. Labby is built for loss recovery, so labby is up as well. I rather not wait 15 series to recover a loss. If a system wins 98% of series, maybe chase is better. There are different labby variations which I am not going to get into yet.

PS any plays? I see Stiff's post above mine, but that is his daily recap. Maybe post "no plays?" Trying to get my bets in before I go to work.

**OFS** · 02-05-13, 11:54 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

PS any plays? I see Stiff's post above mine, but that is his daily recap. Maybe post "no plays?" Trying to get my bets in before I go to work.

GS starts a 4 game road trip tonight and they're on the S3 list, so yes, maybe?

**Ji-a** · 02-05-13, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by OFS

GS starts a 4 game road trip tonight and they're on the S3 list, so yes, maybe?

And S2 Atlanta.

**noveggies** · 02-05-13, 12:02 PM

I would love some kind of link (PM, discussion, otherwise) about how to calculate probability for Kelley -- it just seems so abstract. For example, I didn't make this play yesterday, but my rough capping said the line for CHA/MIA should have been about 10.5, since CHA was getting +14, that seems like the type of thing that should have a high probability, but I can't calculate the probability without looking at how sure I am about my capping, which I don't really know how to consider? Do I go by it's W/L records ATS and that's how sure I am?

**Stifler** · 02-05-13, 12:05 PM

05.02.2013

S2

(A Bet) Atl: Atlanta - waiting on line movement

S3

(A Bet) GS fade: Houston -2,5 1,10u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**thelimit0310** · 02-05-13, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Some people like chase because it only takes 1 game to recover all your losses, but there is more risk to it. With the labby you are still down money when you lose A-B-C and win D. 10-10-10-10-20-30-40 (D win 50). You are still down 40 at this point. Labby line just carries onto the next series though. Chase is better until you get a couple of losses then everyone freaks out. No one really freaks out with the labby.

It's dependent on the person. I used labby for a little while but found that once you hit those losses your lines get HUGE. So while chasing it sucks to hit those losses, at least when the series is over your done worrying about it. As opposed to having to deal with those losses for days or weeks, making very heavy bets on a long line every day can really stress someone out. I think this is the #1 reason people don't win with a labby; recovery is good but its the process of doing it that scares a lot of people.

**Pickle2728** · 02-05-13, 03:31 PM

I was crunching the numbers on my Commodore 64 and it looks like we are in a tailspin!

**Grinder12000** · 02-05-13, 04:10 PM

Actually when you do the number crunching were only a couple games away from the back tested numbers. I'll post some cool stats after the city council meeting tonight.

**Stifler** · 02-05-13, 04:16 PM

- Atlanta line added.

05.02.2013

S2

(A Bet) Atl: Atlanta +6 1,10u

S3

(A Bet) GS fade: Houston -2,5 1,10u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**J.M. Disciple** · 02-05-13, 04:26 PM

Any other systems you all following for NHL or NBA?

NHL: NHL GOLD
NBA: Chase110, John Morrison, Stifler's

These are the four proven systems that I know about depending on how you play them. I think El Captain use to run a NHL system. Trying to increase my bankroll as fast as possible now that were in 2nd half of the season, I figured more systems have proven themselves.

**CrazyCarl** · 02-05-13, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Any other systems you all following for NHL or NBA?

NHL: NHL GOLD
NBA: Chase110, John Morrison, Stifler's

These are the four proven systems that I know about depending on how you play them. I think El Captain use to run a NHL system. Trying to increase my bankroll as fast as possible now that were in 2nd half of the season, I figured more systems have proven themselves.

I've already got slightly more action than I want on NBA sides -- too many conflicting bets haha. NHL Gold has a lot of plays so I'm fairly happy there too.

However I'd be interested in trying to find trends for a totals system. I was trying to think of something I could use for MLB, but I figured with the pitchers switching so often it would be difficult to come up with anything.

Do you happen to know if on3 is going to run his thread again? I know it badly but I'm curious if it turns around this year.

**Wallco99** · 02-05-13, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by o2matic

I gave 10unit bet on it. HAHA

Good job, gutsy.

**J.M. Disciple** · 02-05-13, 06:37 PM

Originally posted by CrazyCarl

I've already got slightly more action than I want on NBA sides -- too many conflicting bets haha. NHL Gold has a lot of plays so I'm fairly happy there too.

However I'd be interested in trying to find trends for a totals system. I was trying to think of something I could use for MLB, but I figured with the pitchers switching so often it would be difficult to come up with anything.

Do you happen to know if on3 is going to run his thread again? I know it badly but I'm curious if it turns around this year.

Any system that can go on a 100 unit downswing is not worth playing even if it is just one bad year. I doubt on3 will run that system again unless there is a new strategy to it. That is a price we paid for having only like a 2 year back test on that system. Everyone paid the consequences for following blindly.

I do not know any total's system. I looked at a lot of things in the past where after 3 overs fade or follow type thing, but I didn't see anything worth following. I think Wilba told me a strategy in the past with the o/u but its not really a system. Similar to how we follow 3 wins ATS on this site, it was same for that system. There was one guy who mentioned why don't we keep following until it loses. That is basically what the o/u was doing. Say 3overs in a row, start betting Over for that team. Someone told me they seen 17 overs in a row before so thats +14 units.

Besides that, I do not know of much else. I was hoping STiff had a hockey system with similar methods of this one. 3 ATS loses fade, 3 ATS wins follow etc etc. Of course backtest would need to be done.

PS
With games today overlapping on HOU and GSW, I lose part of a unit betting both sides due to juice. But say you follow like 5 systems and get like 3 or 4 games overlapping. Its hard to keep track of which series to bet Bet etc etc, so I bite the bullet so to speak and lose out on part of a unit instead of trying to remember every game that overlapped on A or B. I just bet both sides and let the labby do the work for me eventually.

**Maleku** · 02-05-13, 07:45 PM

Message from Stifler to all books regarding the absolute tear he is about to go on come the 2nd half of the NBA schedule

**John Deere** · 02-05-13, 09:45 PM

Look like a 1-1 night.

**J.M. Disciple** · 02-05-13, 09:56 PM

ya not a good night overall. Long week ahead still. Labby better recover this loss soon! ahhaha. Want to make around 10 units this week.

**Grinder12000** · 02-05-13, 10:23 PM

NOT counting tonight. with 58% of the season over and taking 58% of the last 5 years (not counting last year) this is where we should be

These are just numbers - I'm not saying you should make bets any differently - REMEMBER - this is back tested for Chasing - nothing more.

S1
63.1-1.2 back test
56.0-2.0 REAL

S2
26.3-0.6 back test
27.0-1.0 REAL

S3
13.5-0.1 back test
15.0-2.0 REAL

S4
27.7-0.3 back test
40.0-1.0 REAL

A 72-66 .522 .549 back test
B 37-26 .587 .573
C 15-11 .577 .648
D 06-05 .545 .744

We are a combined 9 points from having a great year as 2 of those "D" loses were by 4 and 5 points and 8-3 is SO much better then 6-5.

Good bets

S1 follow
"B" 11-7
"C" 6-1

S2 Fade
"A" 11-5

S3 Follow
"A" 5-2

S4 Fade
"A" 24-16
"B" 11-5

Bad Bets

S1 Follow
"A" 11-19

S2 Fade
"B" 1-4

S3 Fade
"A" 2-6

Added a few trend lines for you stock watches :-)

You can see the bottom has a nice up trend and we're near the bottom. Confidence is high! It's a good time to buy!

**CrazyCarl** · 02-05-13, 10:35 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Any system that can go on a 100 unit downswing is not worth playing even if it is just one bad year. I doubt on3 will run that system again unless there is a new strategy to it. That is a price we paid for having only like a 2 year back test on that system. Everyone paid the consequences for following blindly.

I believe thelimit's version to play it was up until the very end of the year.

**J.M. Disciple** · 02-05-13, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by CrazyCarl

I believe thelimit's version to play it was up until the very end of the year.

What was his version?

**CrazyCarl** · 02-05-13, 10:49 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

What was his version?

5/2 or something like that.

**noveggies** · 02-05-13, 11:17 PM

The pacers and the bucks can just penetrate right off, IMO.

**cambertos** · 02-06-13, 12:42 AM

Originally posted by Maleku

Message from Stifler to all books regarding the absolute tear he is about to go on come the 2nd half of the NBA schedule

hahahahahaha, so good

**J.M. Disciple** · 02-06-13, 01:05 AM

Originally posted by CrazyCarl

5/2 or something like that.

I thought he was going to back test it, but never seen him post the results... only talk about back testing it. Maybe I missed some thing. I think 5/2 is way too high juice. Unless its 5/2 or something on the -1.5 RL. A loss recovery system.

**J.M. Disciple** · 02-06-13, 01:09 AM

Looking at the lines tomorrow, why is NYK only a 4pt favorite over Washington? I dont see any key injuries.... I was thinking line should be around -10... What am I missing? Also opened -4.5 dropped to -4... Im very

**noveggies** · 02-06-13, 01:23 AM

Somehow my spreadsheet for calculating totals has been correct 59% of the time, since I went live with it, and I'm up on Stiff's, yet somehow I'm down ~25u over that same time span. Very frustrating.

**CrazyCarl** · 02-06-13, 01:24 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Looking at the lines tomorrow, why is NYK only a 4pt favorite over Washington? I dont see any key injuries.... I was thinking line should be around -10... What am I missing? Also opened -4.5 dropped to -4... Im very

Wizards aren't so bad. Since Wall came back, they are 7-7 with a win over the Clippers, Bulls, and Nuggets.

**miczz14** · 02-06-13, 07:23 AM

any plays for tom? stif has been posting late these days. my book will close in a couple of hours

**Stifler** · 02-06-13, 08:29 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

05.02.2013

S2

(A Bet) Atl: Atlanta +6 1,10u

S3

(A Bet) GS fade: Houston -2,5 1,10u

records:
S1: W 49 | L 2 (+12,10 units)
S2: W 25 | L 2 (-11,90 units)
S3: W 16 | L 0 (+16,00 units)
S4: W 40 | L 1 (+23,55 units)
additional: -1,10 units Den fade

pending:
- S1 Sac fade, B Bet on 09.02.2013
- S1 Chic, B Bet on 07.02.2013
- S2 Atl, B Bet on 11.02.2013

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**thelimit0310** · 02-06-13, 11:09 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

I thought he was going to back test it, but never seen him post the results... only talk about back testing it. Maybe I missed some thing. I think 5/2 is way too high juice. Unless its 5/2 or something on the -1.5 RL. A loss recovery system.

Actually, average loss is just -16 units. I finished it and briefly ran it last year in On3s thread. It finished slightly negative unfortunately but what do you expect when the original system crashes. I tested it for 9 years and only 2 have gone negative (including last year), the only other season to go negative was 2007 with only -9 units for the season. It's actually very easy consistent growth, runs very smooth and I will most likely run it again this coming MLB season.

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/1641805-on3s-mlb-2012-opening-game-system-thread-194-8-last-year-60-units-p23.html#post14556872

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

**J.M. Disciple** · 02-06-13, 11:32 AM

Looking forward to it Limit. 5/2 similar to 7/5 where you skip the first game of the series? I guess I shouldn't clog this thread. I'll just wait for MLB to start ahha. Thanks for the link and answer.

**Stifler** · 02-06-13, 11:55 AM

06.02.2013

S1

(A Bet) Atl fade: Memphis -1,5 1,10u
(A Bet) Brook fade: Detroit -2 1,10u

S2

(A Bet) Bos fade: Toronto -3 1,10u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**Alwarrete** · 02-06-13, 11:56 AM

3 picks for today right? Im just tryin to undestand the system rules and I see S2 Bos Fade, S1 Atl Fade and S1 Bkn fade.

EDIT: LOL posted at the same time xD

**Askii** · 02-06-13, 12:07 PM

Good luck stiffmeister. Hope to cash all of those tomorrow

**igorp3** · 02-06-13, 12:26 PM

I hope you can post the plays earlier stiff. Betting is already closed in our country.

maybe 5hours earlier than this post?

**OFS** · 02-06-13, 12:37 PM

Originally posted by igorp3

I hope you can post the plays earlier stiff. Betting is already closed in our country.

maybe 5hours earlier than this post?

Where do you live that they close the books 7 hours before the beginning of the games?