nba chase 12/13

[itsjhurley]

Thanks asset. Might have to buy some new underwear with you. Know any place that has cashmere underwear?

[CAPLOCKS]

So take Miami for our D bet as soon as the line comes out or Detroit. I'm so confused. Pretty sure its Miami but can somebody confirm this.

Yes take Miami for Detroit fade (D Bet) on Friday

[CAPLOCKS]

As of now the card for friday is looking like this

"NOT OFFICAL CARD"

S1
Detroit fade [D Bet]
Detroit-Detroit [A Bet]
SAS fade [C Bet]
Pacers-Pacers[A Bet]
NYK fade [A Bet]

S2
Clev fade [A Bet]

S4
Atlanta fade [A Bet]


"NOT OFFICAL CARD"

[Stifler]

Do you think it's gonna be double digits?

my line would probably somewhere around Miami -7 to -10

i have +7,5 on Miami.

no way, hammer it! Will get canceled anyway if ur really getting +7.5 points for Miami.

Just looked...bwin has miami -7.5 not +7.5. That would have been a freak line even if lebron, bosh and wade would be out. One thing is sure, if miami is willing to play they will cover -7.5 easily. We will see.

[kilrathi]

my line would probably somewhere around Miami -7 to -10



no way, hammer it! Will get canceled anyway if ur really getting +7.5 points for Miami.

i think he means mia-7.5 ... that is the current status at bwin

[kauro]

my line would probably somewhere around Miami -7 to -10



no way, hammer it! Will get canceled anyway if ur really getting +7.5 points for Miami.

Just looked...bwin has miami -7.5 not +7.5. That would have been a freak line even if lebron, bosh and wade would be out. One thing is sure, if miami is willing to play they will cover -7.5 easily. We will see.

-7,5 ofc, my mistake

[CrazyCarl]

no way, hammer it! Will get canceled anyway if ur really getting +7.5 points for Miami.

This really annoys me -- one time I typo'ed and accidentally bet 10x my normal unit amount on a bet, and even though this was very obviously the case, they refused to cancel this bet despite no line movement.

So, if the book typo's and give me a bad line, they get to fix it. If I typo and bet something wrong, they refuse to help me at all (even prior to any line movement).

[Grinder12000]

Remember, the Chase is two 1/2 point games from losing 3 "d" games. i have 3 loses because of bad lines. it was at that point when i decided to pay more attention to the lines. since then i have had better then the closing Cover.com line 60% of the time.

lesson learned. i was 1-2 last night . . . .too bad the 'A' bet was the winner

[Grinder12000]

Ever start a post and then write something completely different from what you thought you were going to write?

ANYWAY - Detroit has gone 65 games since that have covered the spread 4 times in a row.

They also lost in OT after a frantic comeback (perhaps some of you noticed that?) and while not a S4 pick it still will have wear and tear. Plus they are coming home which is a good thing as teams get lazy that 1st game of a home stand AND they play Milwaukee in game 2 which is more important then the Miami game.

Just sayin' - if you are looking for any silver lining - MY problem is I'll be away from the internet for 2.5 days starting Friday afternoon. hmmmmmm Not sure how I should handle this.

[Stifler]

MY problem is I'll be away from the internet for 2.5 days starting Friday afternoon. hmmmmmm Not sure how I should handle this.

welcome to the wonderful world of smartphones

oh well i should be quiet, im still running around with an iphone 2. Its so freaking 1950...time to get something new. Hopefully iphone 6 will be interesting.

[Grinder12000]

Yea - I have an iPhone and will use it but I would MUCH rather use my bigger iPad. iPhones are a pain for tiny numbers.
---------------------

SO - we will have a "A" game and a "D" game going against each other.

The EASY way is to just wager 1.1u on "A" and 10.19u on the "D"

BUT - according to CrazyCarl (which I happen to agree with) this is the +EV way to do this.

This is important especially on "D" bet games as you do not have a chance to get that juice back as you would in normal Chases. One and done on the"D" games.

Instead of

"A" 1.1u to win 1.0
"D" 10.19u to win 9.26u

Subtract the 1u from the 9.26u = 8.26u

8.26u is what you want to win so your wager at -110 would be 9.09u instead of 10.19u and do not wager on the "A" game.

Here are the results of both ways

Betting BOTH teams

"A" wins = +1.0
"D" loses = - 10.19
Total -9.19
"A" loses -1.1u
"D" wins +9.26
Total - +8.16

Subtraction method

"A" wins = No waager
"D" loses = - 9.09
Total -9.09
"A" loses no wager
"D" wins +8.26
Total - +8.26

As you can see - no matter what happens you gain by not betting both.

Thank you CrazyCarl

[Asset]

Yea - I have an iPhone and will use it but I would MUCH rather use my bigger iPad. iPhones are a pain for tiny numbers.
---------------------

SO - we will have a "A" game and a "D" game going against each other.

The EASY way is to just wager 1.1u on "A" and 10.19u on the "D"

BUT - according to CrazyCarl (which I happen to agree with) this is the +EV way to do this.

Instead of

"A" 1.1u to win 1.0
"D" 10.19u to win 9.26u

Subtract the 1u from the 9.26u = 8.26u

8.26u is what you want to win so your wager at -110 would be 9.09u instead of 10.19u and do not wager on the "A" game.

Here are the results of both ways

Betting BOTH teams

"A" wins = +1.0
"D" loses = - 10.19
Total -9.19
"A" loses -1.1u
"D" wins +9.26
Total - +8.16

Subtraction method

"A" wins = No waager
"D" loses = - 9.09
Total -9.09
"A" loses no wager
"D" wins +8.26
Total - +8.26

As you can see - no matter what happens you gain by not betting both.

Thank you CrazyCarl

I'm curious, what if the "A Bet" wins? Then we lose the "D Bet"? If so, that means we actually lose because we only placed our bet on the "D Bet" not "A Bet"(missing out on a win). I think if "A Bet" wins your actually up, so you would subtract the +1.0 from the "D Bet" don't you? I guess I'm trying to say is that I think Stif's way is the correct way of betting on both, because don't you just subtract your the +1 from the "D Bet" loss? Or maybe that's what you meant, sorry just wroke up Please correct me if I'm wrong I'm sorry, I'm just trying to understand...

[CrazyCarl]

I'm curious, what if the "A Bet" wins? Then we lose the "D Bet"? If so, that means we actually lose because we only placed our bet on the "D Bet" not "A Bet"(missing out on a win). I think if "A Bet" wins your actually up, so you would subtract the +1.0 from the "D Bet" don't you? Sorry I'm just trying to understand...

He already laid out that scenario.

Count "wins" and "losses" however you like, but by subtracting one unit from the D bet, you have already accounted for the scenario of if the A bet wins.

[Asset]

He already laid out that scenario.

Count "wins" and "losses" however you like, but by subtracting one unit from the D bet, you have already accounted for the scenario of if the A bet wins.

Your correct!! Thank-you Sorry I only comprehended all this now lol

[kilrathi]

so if i use that second method and if miami covers and D-bet wins it will end up with +1unit at the end?

[BuckeyeKaptn]

welcome to the wonderful world of smartphones

oh well i should be quiet, im still running around with an iphone 2. Its so freaking 1950...time to get something new. Hopefully iphone 6 will be interesting.

I have a droid and I use Google Chrome as my web browser for both laptop and phone.....I can access my laptop bookmarks on my phone...NICE!!!

[njb5572]

welcome to the wonderful world of smartphones

oh well i should be quiet, im still running around with an iphone 2. Its so freaking 1950...time to get something new. Hopefully iphone 6 will be interesting.

My guess is that it will be similar to the iPhone 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5.

[Grinder12000]

so if i use that second method and if miami covers and D-bet wins it will end up with +1unit at the end?

Yes - sort of. The "D" bet will end up as a one unit win - but the "A" bet will be a 1.1u loss with 3 games to go.

If you use the OTHER method you will actually profit 0.9u instead of 1.0u

It's getting pretty picky but if you want to be anal about it I say it's the +EV way to go. If it's too much of a bother - it's not that big of deal. Betting $100 it's an extra dollar-ish into your bankroll. Do it 10 times a year it's a free $10 for doing a little math once every 2 weeks.

[Nino7]

If you use the OTHER method you will actually profit 0.9u instead of 1.0u

I disagree

[laca07]

FYI - Miami (Det fade) line is up @ -8.5 in some US accessible books. Houston +8.5 (SanA fade) also.

[Asset]

Okay I have a scenario I want to ask & of course am curious about so here we go...

Lets say I have a "B bet" with a "D bet" how would you play it?

Btw, I'm not trying to prove any1 wrong by asking this question. I'm just trying to have a deeper understanding about this betting system...thanks

[Huego]

betonline is offering Miami -8.5. Would you guys suggest to take this or wait? I'm not good at predicting line moves at all.

[Nino7]

Okay I have a scenario I want to ask & of course am curious about so here we go...

Lets say I have a "B bet" with a "D bet" how would you play it?

Btw, I'm not trying to prove any1 wrong by asking this question. I'm just trying to have a deeper understanding about this betting system...thanks

Go check post #850 i explained the deep math logic you can adapt to B vs D

[laca07]

betonline is offering Miami -8.5. Would you guys suggest to take this or wait? I'm not good at predicting line moves at all.

I'm waiting for public % to start showing up. Miami will probably get the majority and this *may* increase the line. We'll see. Either way, I'm probably buying half a point.

[alexknyc]

I'm waiting for public % to start showing up. Miami will probably get the majority and this *may* increase the line. We'll see. Either way, I'm probably buying half a point.

How would public money on Miami drop the line?

[Asset]

Go check post #850 i explained the deep math logic you can adapt to B vs D

Thanks a bunch Nino7, I've got it

[laca07]

How would public money on Miami drop the line?

increase, typo'd and corrected.

[Nino7]

k i locked miami

[Grinder12000]

Not clear to me at all!

so you just skip both 1,1 like in the first exemple and bet 9,09 on D then if D bet wins you ll bet 2,2 to win 2 on B (if that serie end up losing you saved 0,11 + what needed to make up on C and D)
if A bet wins you lost -9.09 so you saved 0,1

What?? skip both and bet 9.09 on D? what?? How are we different? We're both (CrazyCarl actually) and are coming out wit the same number.

Are you disagreeing that YOUR way is worse?? What?

Nino7 - using this way of showing

Betting BOTH teams

"A" wins = +1.0
"D" loses = - 10.19
Total -9.19
"A" loses -1.1u
"D" wins +9.26
Total - +8.16

Subtraction method

"A" wins = No waager
"D" loses = - 9.09
Total -9.09
"A" loses no wager
"D" wins +8.26
Total - +8.26

Show me what you are talking about without using so many words "A" vs "D"

[Nino7]

We got the same numbers but i disagree this

If you use the OTHER method you will actually profit 0.9u instead of 1.0u

[Grinder12000]

OH - hmmmmm Yea - I don't know what the hell I was saying there.

[Nino7]

k i locked miami

sigh the line moved our way.

Anyone explain me the line moving mechanism regarding to the % concensus?

I thought that more % your team got,worse its line will get...

Thx

[Stifler]

just for the info: I already placed Miami -7,5

[Asset]

sigh the line moved our way.

Anyone explain me the line moving mechanism regarding to the % concensus?

I thought that more % your team got,worse its line will get...

Thx

To my understanding you can never tell which way the line is gonna go. If the wiseguys(smartmoney) place a big bet on a team the line will move. The good thing is we still have about 24hrs. left b4 game time, so lets wait and see...

Btw I also locked in at -8 & bought the hook so...

I'm starting to hate 5dimes and their lines...and now the line is @ -7.5 F*CK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Miami just better blow them out totally.

[rustie]

Sorry if this has been answered but , what happens
when we have a situation where it's two "A" bets opposing ?


Ex. S2 - cleveland fade ( A Bet) play is Atlanta

S4- Atlanta fade (A Bet) play is Cleveland

Thanks.