Johno's AFL Picks 2012

[johno35]

Been watching the radar and Geelong has been hit with a fair bit of rain. I'm on the under and Port to cover

Geelong/Port under 161.5 - 3 units
Port +51.5 - 3 units

GL, be back for afternoon games. I'm leaning on the under in the Lions game and need to look further into the saints game, North is so unpredictable this year

[johno35]

Lions/Dees under 185.5 - 3 units

The line has gone from 28.5 to 34.5 today, I'm not confident Brisbane can cover that and I dont trust Melbourne so staying away

[thecattery12]

Thecattery, do you think your boys will cover the 50 points?

Would have thought so if it wasnt for this weather. Didn't know it was this wet

[johno35]

Would have thought so if it wasnt for this weather. Didn't know it was this wet

Yeah I would have been on Geelong if it wasn't for the rain, it's hard to smash teams when it's wet

[johno35]

I'm having flashbacks to yesterday! A game that looked to be going comfortably under is going to go down to the wire...

[johno35]

Too close for comfort! Feel lucky but would have felt unlucky if it didn't go under. Fast start in the Lions game, has been a bit of a trend lately, high scoring first quarters followed by low scoring seconds

[johno35]

Been looking at the saints game and I have 2 plays on

Saints -18.5 - 3 units
Saints/Roos under 204.5 - 5 units

Not expecting a massive score in this game, the saints will not allow the roos to have the space and a free run in this game. Saints to win by 25+

[johno35]

The trend continues, only 25 points scored in that quarter

[Bic]

I am intrigued about the Saints game... Such a high game total, and still a 3 goal margin to give. I'm not a fan of playing under at Etihad.

Thinking North +10.5 HT. Saints off the bye to start slow, but finish strong in the second half. Not too sure yet.

[johno35]

Well I was way off with thinking that the saints wouldn't give space and run

[johno35]

That hurt, today was looking great up until that point

[johno35]

Collingwood games have been really bad for me this season, whether it be and over/under or on the spread I always seem to be on the wrong side. I'm confident the Pies can get the job done tonight and I like the under also with Carlton scoring problems of late

Pies -29.5 - 3 units
under 182.5 -3 units

GL

[Lookingtostart]

It's been an interesting season to cap, stay conservative, I'm on Collingwood as well, confident. Blues with an early injury early on.

[johno35]

It's been an interesting season to cap, stay conservative, I'm on Collingwood as well, confident. Blues with an early injury early on.

Yeah last season I started slow but finished strong. The problem is with the inconsistant teams i.e Kanga's

[johno35]

Lucky for the under, another game Collingwood fail to cover

[johno35]

I've been looking into the North game and I'm liking North in an upset. North generally put up a good showing against the Eagles and with the way they have been playing the last coupple of weeks I cant see why they couldn't win this one outright. Weather in Tasmania is perfect today so I'm also expecting a high score, not only for that reason but due to North's style of play, very attacking up the guts but also the lack of accountability makes all their games high scoring. The Eagles are also a very high scoring team.

North +15.5 - 3 units
North ML - Risk 1 unit
Over 197.5 - 3 units

GL

[johno35]

With the Melbourne/Richmond game I'm on the fence, I think first reaction is to go with Richmond at -31.5 but I'm not convinced, quite a few players missing this week, so I'm on the under, I always like the under when a team doesn't have a good forward line

Melb/Rich under 188.5 - 3 units

[garygroundwork]

any rain or wind there Johno?

[johno35]

any rain or wind there Johno?

No mate, sunny today. Just cant see Melbourne shooting a big score, I'm thinking about a 170 total

[johno35]

Essendon -18.5 - 5 units
over 199.5 - 1 unit

[johno35]

Adelaide under 39.5 - 3 units

[thecattery12]

This is the worst week ever.

[hedgejob]

Sat night AFL always throws suprises, very hard to cap. Reduce your stakes IMO.

[johno35]

any rain or wind there Johno?

Yeah Sat nights have been brutal! I really did not think the saints would win let alone by that much. I don't think anyone saw that coming. I was expecting a close encounter with the showdown match in Adelaide but no go with that one either.

[johno35]

I really can't see Hawks not winning this one under 100 points, I'm thinking the score will be something like 150-50, so

Hawks -92.5 - 3 unit
Over 189.5 - 1 unit

[Lookingtostart]

I don't like to bet against a team that got thrashed the previous week, but Hawks do well against poor teams. Stayed away from this one.

[johno35]

GC/Cats under 185.5 - 3 units

[johno35]

Freo/Dogs over 169.5 - 3 units
Freo -31.5 - 1 unit

[johno35]

Gonna claw some units back this weekend

North +4.5 - 3 units
Over 193.5 - 3 units

GL

[Lookingtostart]

I like North too, but I might leave it unless there's some significant line movement. Good Luck.

I was also thinking 1-39 on both teams.

[johno35]

I like North too, but I might leave it unless there's some significant line movement. Good Luck.

I was also thinking 1-39 on both teams.

Yeah I was thinking the same thing, can't see either team winning by more than 30 points

[johno35]

Will North be able to hold their nerve? Surely can't loose from here...

[Lookingtostart]

Glad I didn't go for 1-39, I went North +5.5.

[johno35]

Yeah I'm glad too! I was expecting North to win by not like that!

[johno35]

Anyone think Port can win today? I'm thinking without Hurley, Crameri, Ryder and Hocking the Bombers may struggle. I'm also leaning on the under