-
Comment -
NRL Season 2012 77-67 +22.74
Round 19 5-3
Play #9
Roosters vs Rabbitohs OVER 44.5 2x 1.95
These are normally pretty torrid affairs and expecting tonight to be no different. Souths are looking for revenge after being embarrassed earlier in the year when the Roosters ran down a big Rabbitohs lead with 10mins to play. Warea-Hargreaves is a big loss for the Roosters and does a lot of work in defense - this should help the OVER. Greg Inglis, Adam Reynolds, Dave Taylor and Sam Burgess have been in amazing form.. you just can't go past the Rabbitohs for laying on plenty of points. Anasta returning for the Roosters should ensure they don't throw away points like last week against the Sharks.
Have this game as try-fest at 46points and rolling for 2x based on the form and strength of the Rabbitohs. GL
Comment -
On the Over 44.5 today!Comment -
Hoping the game is 36-16 rabbitohs. -10Comment -
Frustrating to watch.
Video ref robbed a try, plenty of opportunities butchered and the Roosters are just incapable of scoring points.Comment -
unfuknreal
unbelievable. won't complain about a bad beat for a long time
Comment -
unfucking real!! hahaha, left with 5 mins left to cook dinner, come back and spat my fuking rice all over the screen when i saw the scoreComment -
overs never in doubt, WOW, what a finish to cover....Comment -
updated: NRL Season 2012 78-67 +24.64
End Round 19 6-3
Great to see the Rabbitohs cover the OVER in the final 5mins. Variance was the b!tch tonight!
Can't complain with almost 5units of profit for one round. Roll on to next week. GLComment -
That was the best finish to an NRL game all season!!!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!
Comment -
'have this game as try-fest at 46 points'
Yeah would say that's spot on mate
Never in doubt TG
Great way to end punting weekend
Cheers againComment -
Give TG some points you tight pricks
Least we can give this bloke for another winning weekend
TG -sharpest punter on SBRComment -
Souths(& the over) were dead with 5 minutes to go! A stunning win, I'll remember this game for a long time!Comment -
Just a heads up that this bloke on Covers is NOT me.. even if the write ups & plays are the same.
covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=82&sub=101381110&pa ge=2
Comment -
Hopefully another good week mate ... whats everyone liking tonight ? I am just about to start looking into it ... I think it will be two close games tonightComment -
NRL Season 2012 78-67 +24.64
Round 20
Great looking round ahead. Think we'll be seeing more UNDERS going forward - despite OVERS cashing the last few rounds the match ups look much more equal this time around. Books have not lifted the numbers and are intent on opening some totals lower then previous rounds despite the OVER trend.
Not much time for write ups so I'll keep it brief for tonight.
Play #1
Sea Eagles vs Bulldogs UNDER 39.5 2x 1.95
This should be a close match at Brookvale despite previous blow outs between these sides. Cherry-Evans and Foran are off the boil and will be keen for breakout games. Defense needs to improve tonight for both sides and we should expect to see a tight tussle. For the Sea Eagles they will need to keep a very close eye on Barba and limit options - to do that we need controlled sets of 6. Model has this game at 34 and I'm rolling with 2x UNDER 39.5 at 1.95 GL
Play #2
Titans vs Broncos -6 1x 1.95
Broncos should be much stronger in this spot despite the Titans having some good wins the last few rounds - they've been lucky and haven't really been tested in close matches. Broncos should be too strong around the edges and missing Greg Bird will hurt the Titans badly tonight. Have the Broncos by 10 and locking in the Broncos -6 1x 1.95 GL
Comment -
on the broncos -5.5, sitting out the other match. GL lets cash 'em
Comment -
added: Play #3
Titans vs Broncos UNDER 40.5 1x 1.95
Game is great looking under - Titans roughly 70% UNDER this year and rely on defense in these tight games. The last few weeks their average points against per game has been blown out by letting teams score after they've well & truly won the match. Last week they let 4 tries in the last 15mins against the Raiders but against stronger teams like the Broncos we won't see that happen.
Rolling 1x on the UNDER. GL
Comment -
double upComment -
updated: NRL Season 2012 80-68 +26.25
Round 20 2-1
Great to cash the UNDERS including a 2unit play tonight - both were low scoring matches as suggested.
Broncos never turned up tonight but we're still ahead regardless. GL tomorrow.
Looking at a big play tomorrow night - possible 3-5 unit.
Comment -
Congrats TG. Nice work cashing both totals.
Is that big play on a Parra upset against the Storm?
Comment -
NRL Season 2012 80-68 +26.25
Round 20 2-1
More plays to come.. jumping on this early before we lose value.
Play #4
Rabbitohs vs Dragons UNDER 38.5 3x 1.92
Hitting this hard nice and early before the total drops or we lose value. Issac Luke missing for the Rabbitohs is a huge blow and they'll lose metres up the middle of the park - great for the UNDER. We've seen what the Dragons can do in defense and how they can cut down teams that rely on attack to give us soccer scores.. Titans / Raiders / Sharks are all teams that have been reduced to less than 18pts playing the Dragons. Tonight the visitors will not want a try fest because they'll lose. Expect a slow grind out game relying on positional play and Reynolds / Sowards kicking game... it's been a while since the Rabbitohs hit an UNDER but we should get one tonight. Model has this game at 36pts but if we take out games where the Rabbitohs have won by 3-4 tries it drops down to 28pts. If it's a close game tonight it cashes and with Luke out it looks very good. Rolling with this 3x at 1.92 GL
Comment -
added:NRL Season 2012 80-68 +26.25
Round 20 2-1
More plays to come.. jumping on this early before we lose value.
Play #4
Rabbitohs vs Dragons UNDER 38.5 3x 1.92
Hitting this hard nice and early before the total drops or we lose value. Issac Luke missing for the Rabbitohs is a huge blow and they'll lose metres up the middle of the park - great for the UNDER. We've seen what the Dragons can do in defense and how they can cut down teams that rely on attack to give us soccer scores.. Titans / Raiders / Sharks are all teams that have been reduced to less than 18pts playing the Dragons. Tonight the visitors will not want a try fest because they'll lose. Expect a slow grind out game relying on positional play and Reynolds / Sowards kicking game... it's been a while since the Rabbitohs hit an UNDER but we should get one tonight. Model has this game at 36pts but if we take out games where the Rabbitohs have won by 3-4 tries it drops down to 28pts. If it's a close game tonight it cashes and with Luke out it looks very good. Rolling with this 3x at 1.92 GL
Play #5
Warriors -10 vs Knights 1x 1.95
Warriors defense was tested last week against the Broncos and came out fairing very well. They'll have more attacking opportunities this week and should put the Knights away - especially with their horrible record away from home. Uate's right edge will have the Warriors worried but there is much more strike power with the Kiwis who will be keen to maintain their position on the ladder. Warriors are extremely positive this week and with the return of Hurrell plus Johnson, they should carve up the Knights down the middle. Have the Warriors winning by 18 on the model - so this is a 1x lock. GL
Play #6
Eels vs Storm UNDER 41.5 1x 1.95
This is a must win game for the Storm who have not lost four in a row since 2002. Tonight Bellamy says they'll be concentrating on dominating the ruck and completing sets of 6. Less crazy plays and loose ball carries means less points. The Storm are preparing for a game that Eels honestly believe they can win, so we should have a much tighter scoreline for both teams. No Slater or Hayne helps the UNDER as well and I think we'll get a tight game of meat n' potatoes boring football - team with less errors wins.
Have this game at 32points and rolling with 1x at 1.95 on the UNDER 41.5. GL
Comment -
<b style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); ">NRL Season 2012 81-70 +23.20<br><b>Round 20 3-3<br></b></b><br>Rabbitohs play didn't turn out as planned and cost us. Dragons intent on playing expansive football with no regard for ball control... hurt us tonight. Great to hit the UNDER on Eels game.... Round 20 still looking positive with some plays t/m. GLComment -
NRL Season 2012 81-70 +23.20
Round 20 3-3
Rabbitohs play didn't turn out as planned and cost us. Dragons intent on playing expansive football with no regard for ball control... hurt us tonight. Great to hit the UNDER on Eels game.... Round 20 still looking positive with some plays t/m. GLComment -
Not much time for writeups today.. Here's what I got:
(will try to add more detail later)
Play #7
Sharks vs Raiders UNDER 44.5 2x 1.95
Play #8
Sharks -6 1x 1.92
Play #9
Roosters +2.5 1x 1.92
GLComment -
Good luck on that Sharks total. It's already dropped to 41.5. It's a tough one to call. Raiders let in 25+ points every week but the Sharks without Gallen & Smith will struggle to rack up tries. I don't think we'll see a repeat for the 44-22 scorefest from Round 8 though.Comment -
Added:
Play #10
Panthers vs Rooters OVER 42.5 2x 1.95Comment -
NRL Season 2012 83-72 +25.00
Round 20 5-5
Great to have both 2x unit plays cash today. Starting to think I should lay off the team picks.. 5-1 with totals so far this round and 0-4 with team plays! Unbelievable round so far with some results well against models / predictions
Still in the positive heading into MNF.. Good luck!
Apologies for no write up. O/S with bad internet connection and was hoping to update prior to plays.. should be fine for t/m night.Comment -
Nice job reading the totals as always mate. Underdogs came up huge this weekend. Shame i was oblivious to all the value out there! GL tomorrow night.Comment -
NRL Season 2012 83-72 +25.00
Round 20 5-5
Play #10
Cowboys vs Tigers OVER 44 2x 1.95
Keen to end a round on a winner and this looks good tonight. We have the best attacking team in the comp ready to fire at home - Cowboys now average 23.6 pts per game and Thurston & Bowen should be lethal. Last time these teams met the total was 44pts but the amount of tries disallowed via video ref was astounding - could have easy hit 50plus total points and should do tonight. Tigers thru Ellis, Blair and Woods have a lot of points and have been playing more attacking style of play recently.. less hard defense and solid sets of 6 that we saw earlier in the year. Advanced stats show that in the past 6 weeks these sides are 1 and 2 in most points scored.. tonight should be a try fest and I'm rolling with the OVER 44 for 2x 1.95. GL
Play #11
Cowboys -2.5 vs Tigers / TOTAL OVER 44 0.5 x 3.75
Having a small play on this at my book. Total is good value and the Cowboys at home should be hard to beat. Thurston, Bowen, Tamou, Scott and Tate should be way too powerful for the Tigers. GLComment -
You have any leans on a side?
My site doesnt hve totals
Comment
