MrXYZ's NRL thread

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  • rohan22no
    SBR Sharp
    • 07-20-11
    • 365

    #1121
    See you next week XYZ
    Comment
    • MrXYZ
      SBR MVP
      • 02-18-11
      • 2342

      #1122
      Thanks guys. You're right, it's hard for me to stay away. Love the game too much. This has been the most difficult NRL season of my handicapping 'career.' Taking some time off & will most likely be back after Origin 3.
      Comment
      • swordsandtequila
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 02-23-12
        • 9757

        #1123
        Wrong thread...
        Comment
        • MrXYZ
          SBR MVP
          • 02-18-11
          • 2342

          #1124
          QLD wins tonight. Don't throw your money away on NSW ML looking for 'value.' This series will follow the script & head to a Game 3 decider. It happens just about every year and nothing I've seen has convinced me otherwise.
          Comment
          • 1Time!
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 12-24-08
            • 588

            #1125
            I have nsw +10.5 in a multi.
            should I be worried or do you think they'll cover that?
            Comment
            • Mase of Base
              SBR MVP
              • 07-24-12
              • 3622

              #1126
              Originally posted by 1Time!
              I have nsw +10.5 in a multi.
              should I be worried or do you think they'll cover that?
              If you've already nailed a few legs and this closes it a QLD ML bet or QLD -5.5 gives a reasonable margin for a middle. Going to take a special Blues defensive performance to win this but 10.5 on your side is nice to have.
              Comment
              • 1Time!
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 12-24-08
                • 588

                #1127
                Not a good start!
                Comment
                • MrXYZ
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-18-11
                  • 2342

                  #1128
                  Originally posted by 1Time!
                  I have nsw +10.5 in a multi.
                  should I be worried or do you think they'll cover that?
                  Sorry mate, I was out all night and couldn't get back to you in time.
                  Comment
                  • MrXYZ
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-18-11
                    • 2342

                    #1129
                    SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
                    Game Total OVER 37.5 @1.90 x 5

                    Souths have proven all season they can score in rainy conditions, and without their Origin stars, yet they'll have a near full strength team on the field tonight . Raiders meanwhile boast one of the worst defensive records in the NRL. Despite all this we get a low total because the books know average punters still believe rain = low scores. They would be posting 44.5 for tonight's game if not for the weather. Too much value to pass up and I'm rolling with the OVER for 5 units.
                    Comment
                    • MrXYZ
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-18-11
                      • 2342

                      #1130
                      NORTH QLD COWBOYS vs CRONULLA SHARKS
                      Game Total OVER 38.5 @2.00 x2.5

                      Fading the public on this one. If Cowboys stop Sharks from turning it into a grind we should see it land on 40 to cash the play.
                      Comment
                      • MrXYZ
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-18-11
                        • 2342

                        #1131
                        Buried myself on that Souths total. They had plenty of chances to score with 10 minutes left in the game. It almost cashed at full time with that last ditch Raiders effort but it tough luck for over backers.

                        Updated record:

                        0-1 -5.0 units -$250
                        NRL Season Record: 45-37 +11.50 units $575
                        Comment
                        • benrama
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-19-11
                          • 1499

                          #1132
                          Late but I'm liking NQ tonight, you?
                          Comment
                          • MrXYZ
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-18-11
                            • 2342

                            #1133
                            Cows will be too good today. ML is easy money.
                            Comment
                            • MrXYZ
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-18-11
                              • 2342

                              #1134
                              MANLY SEA EAGLES vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
                              Game Total OVER 33.5 @1.90 x9

                              Found this on Sportsbet. Much better value than TAB's 35.5. This would normally be for 2 units but after another losing day it's time to say fukk it, go big or go home in the NRL. "It's just house money" are famous last words but I'm very confident of this play.

                              Today: 0-1 -2.5 units -$125
                              NRL Season Record: 45-38 +9.0 units $450
                              Comment
                              • Vinnie Paz
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 03-27-12
                                • 12177

                                #1135
                                Nice gpnna pound the fukker with you X, lets eat
                                Comment
                                • Tim Gerry Mander
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 11-14-12
                                  • 869

                                  #1136
                                  Wow
                                  Comment
                                  • s2230011
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 06-14-10
                                    • 368

                                    #1137
                                    I am leaning Manly atm
                                    Comment
                                    • rohan22no
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 07-20-11
                                      • 365

                                      #1138
                                      Originally posted by MrXYZ
                                      MANLY SEA EAGLES vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
                                      Game Total OVER 33.5 @1.90 x9

                                      Found this on Sportsbet. Much better value than TAB's 35.5. This would normally be for 2 units but after another losing day it's time to say fukk it, go big or go home in the NRL. "It's just house money" are famous last words but I'm very confident of this play.

                                      Today: 0-1 -2.5 units -$125
                                      NRL Season Record: 45-38 +9.0 units $450

                                      I hope you win this one XYZ, cause I like your tips! Your analysis is great and well thought out, stay off tilt tho bro!
                                      Comment
                                      • Mase of Base
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 07-24-12
                                        • 3622

                                        #1139
                                        Whoa that's some coin thrown down. Does anyone have a weather report/update? Weather seems good today? I don't really understand the total if it's dry, that's really low. Guess the ground will still be fairly cut up.
                                        Comment
                                        • gotov
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 06-16-10
                                          • 198

                                          #1140
                                          I found this stat off nrl.com that supports your pick:
                                          The Sea Eagles have won their past five Allianz Stadium fixtures, scoring 33.8 points per game in the process, and are undefeated at the venue since 2010. Manly have won 12 of their past 15 matches against the Roosters too, and the boys from Bondi have only once defeated the Sea Eagles twice in a season… in more than 30 years!
                                          Good luch bro i might play the overs as well
                                          Comment
                                          • benrama
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-19-11
                                            • 1499

                                            #1141
                                            Some relevant stats for tonight:
                                            Manly on average give up 13.2 points, and are the #1 defense
                                            Roosters on average give up 13.7 points, and are the #2 defense
                                            The average score against top 8 opponents for Sydney is 35.6 points
                                            The average score against top 8 opponents for Manly is 33.1 points
                                            And the one time they met this season they scored 20 points total.

                                            So it seems to me like odds makers have this line pretty much nailed - in fact the lean based on stats would be under. What's the angle here that makes you feel so confident?
                                            Comment
                                            • s2230011
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 06-14-10
                                              • 368

                                              #1142
                                              Thanks Benrama for pulling those together, I am not leaning anything but 2 things to say that both team's defence are nowhere near what they were at the beginning of the year. Without looking at numbers I am pretty sure both are leaking more the last few games than at the start of the year.

                                              The other thing I want to say was that I remember the first game between those two sides very well and there was alot of butchered tries in the first half. It was fast and a few line breaks with the final passes going to ground. The game closed up in the second half and Eagles had a mountain of poessesion at the end against a 12 man defence but couldnt break.

                                              I have a feeling the best play is Manly
                                              Comment
                                              • rohan22no
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 07-20-11
                                                • 365

                                                #1143
                                                I've got
                                                1 unit Manly M/L,
                                                .2 of a unit manly 13+,
                                                1 unit over 33.5 total points

                                                I will be sweating XYZ's all in!!

                                                GOGOGOGOGOGOGOGO
                                                Comment
                                                • benrama
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-19-11
                                                  • 1499

                                                  #1144
                                                  Yea could be the defense is sliding, but for me there's only two recent anomalies - Manly vs Canterbury and Roosters vs Eels. And I can't see any fundamental reason for a slide, apart from maybe some SOO fatigue.

                                                  Maloney out for the Roosters will dent their attacking clout, but if Stewart plays for Manly I think the over starts to look more attractive - as does Manly, obviously.

                                                  I remember their last clash vividly too, and yes there were plenty of try scoring chances. Keep in mind though, one try - the only Manly try - was a bit fortuitous off the boot of Cherry Evans and one other try was in the last 2 minutes when the game was over. Take one of these away and give 3 others and it still would fall under.

                                                  There will be chances again tonight but what separates these teams is precisely their ability to keep teams out from close to the line. They slide well, read the offense well and are decent under the high ball.

                                                  Anyway I'm passing on the total so will cheer the over for mr XYZ, at this stage my strong lean is the Roosters - if Stewart doesn't play.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • s2230011
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 06-14-10
                                                    • 368

                                                    #1145
                                                    Stewart in but foran out.

                                                    Like sbw over
                                                    Still think edge to manly
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Sol
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 01-29-12
                                                      • 111

                                                      #1146
                                                      Good luck XYZ. I am rollin' with ya tonight. Hope for the best.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • benrama
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-19-11
                                                        • 1499

                                                        #1147
                                                        Strong late line movement to Roosters at Pinny, over at 33.5 has stayed firmly juiced at $1.77 (a good sign for the over backers, I have Pinny juiced totals hitting at >60% this season)
                                                        Comment
                                                        • MrXYZ
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 02-18-11
                                                          • 2342

                                                          #1148
                                                          Thanks guys for your insights. Been at work all day & haven't had time to respond. Stats may indicate a low scoring game but I'm expecting 36-38 points tonight. It's a theory of mine about defensive letfowns post-Origin. I reckon just about every game would've gone over this weekend if not for the rain.

                                                          tail or fade, good luck. This is the match of the round & it should be a thriller.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • MrXYZ
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-18-11
                                                            • 2342

                                                            #1149
                                                            Passing on a side but Manly ML would be my play.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • MrXYZ
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 02-18-11
                                                              • 2342

                                                              #1150
                                                              Buried. That's it for me. Bye fellas.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Mase of Base
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 07-24-12
                                                                • 3622

                                                                #1151
                                                                Two of the easier tries you'll see blown and then that chance at the end was a massive blow. Only chance is the Roosters turning this into a rout which although unlikely isn't out of the question with how they've played they just need their share of ball.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • YEP
                                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                                  • 06-17-13
                                                                  • 16

                                                                  #1152
                                                                  8-0 Roosters half time.

                                                                  A sheeit load of points left out there in that half
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • rohan22no
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 07-20-11
                                                                    • 365

                                                                    #1153
                                                                    Not over yet XYZ....only need 4 converted tries in the half, still a decent chance
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Tim Gerry Mander
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 11-14-12
                                                                      • 869

                                                                      #1154
                                                                      Geez, no Maloney - no conversions

                                                                      Need 26 points in the second half.

                                                                      5 tries - impossible? Stranger things have happened.

                                                                      Rooting for you buddy!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Mase of Base
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 07-24-12
                                                                        • 3622

                                                                        #1155
                                                                        That was incredibly unlucky it should of won quite easily. Missed conversions, two butchered tries and 3 times they got over the line but couldn't get it down, just one of those games.
                                                                        Comment
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