Thanks guys. You're right, it's hard for me to stay away. Love the game too much. This has been the most difficult NRL season of my handicapping 'career.' Taking some time off & will most likely be back after Origin 3.
Comment
swordsandtequila
SBR Hall of Famer
02-23-12
9757
#1123
Wrong thread...
Comment
MrXYZ
SBR MVP
02-18-11
2342
#1124
QLD wins tonight. Don't throw your money away on NSW ML looking for 'value.' This series will follow the script & head to a Game 3 decider. It happens just about every year and nothing I've seen has convinced me otherwise.
Comment
1Time!
SBR Wise Guy
12-24-08
588
#1125
I have nsw +10.5 in a multi.
should I be worried or do you think they'll cover that?
Comment
Mase of Base
SBR MVP
07-24-12
3622
#1126
Originally posted by 1Time!
I have nsw +10.5 in a multi.
should I be worried or do you think they'll cover that?
If you've already nailed a few legs and this closes it a QLD ML bet or QLD -5.5 gives a reasonable margin for a middle. Going to take a special Blues defensive performance to win this but 10.5 on your side is nice to have.
Comment
1Time!
SBR Wise Guy
12-24-08
588
#1127
Not a good start!
Comment
MrXYZ
SBR MVP
02-18-11
2342
#1128
Originally posted by 1Time!
I have nsw +10.5 in a multi.
should I be worried or do you think they'll cover that?
Sorry mate, I was out all night and couldn't get back to you in time.
Comment
MrXYZ
SBR MVP
02-18-11
2342
#1129
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS Game Total OVER 37.5 @1.90 x 5
Souths have proven all season they can score in rainy conditions, and without their Origin stars, yet they'll have a near full strength team on the field tonight . Raiders meanwhile boast one of the worst defensive records in the NRL. Despite all this we get a low total because the books know average punters still believe rain = low scores. They would be posting 44.5 for tonight's game if not for the weather. Too much value to pass up and I'm rolling with the OVER for 5 units.
Comment
MrXYZ
SBR MVP
02-18-11
2342
#1130
NORTH QLD COWBOYS vs CRONULLA SHARKS Game Total OVER 38.5 @2.00 x2.5
Fading the public on this one. If Cowboys stop Sharks from turning it into a grind we should see it land on 40 to cash the play.
Comment
MrXYZ
SBR MVP
02-18-11
2342
#1131
Buried myself on that Souths total. They had plenty of chances to score with 10 minutes left in the game. It almost cashed at full time with that last ditch Raiders effort but it tough luck for over backers.
Updated record:
0-1 -5.0 units -$250 NRL Season Record: 45-37 +11.50 units $575
Comment
benrama
SBR MVP
01-19-11
1499
#1132
Late but I'm liking NQ tonight, you?
Comment
MrXYZ
SBR MVP
02-18-11
2342
#1133
Cows will be too good today. ML is easy money.
Comment
MrXYZ
SBR MVP
02-18-11
2342
#1134
MANLY SEA EAGLES vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS Game Total OVER 33.5 @1.90 x9
Found this on Sportsbet. Much better value than TAB's 35.5. This would normally be for 2 units but after another losing day it's time to say fukk it, go big or go home in the NRL. "It's just house money" are famous last words but I'm very confident of this play.
Today: 0-1 -2.5 units -$125 NRL Season Record: 45-38 +9.0 units $450
Comment
Vinnie Paz
SBR Posting Legend
03-27-12
12177
#1135
Nice gpnna pound the fukker with you X, lets eat
Comment
Tim Gerry Mander
SBR Wise Guy
11-14-12
869
#1136
Wow
Comment
s2230011
SBR Sharp
06-14-10
368
#1137
I am leaning Manly atm
Comment
rohan22no
SBR Sharp
07-20-11
365
#1138
Originally posted by MrXYZ
MANLY SEA EAGLES vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS Game Total OVER 33.5 @1.90 x9
Found this on Sportsbet. Much better value than TAB's 35.5. This would normally be for 2 units but after another losing day it's time to say fukk it, go big or go home in the NRL. "It's just house money" are famous last words but I'm very confident of this play.
Today: 0-1 -2.5 units -$125 NRL Season Record: 45-38 +9.0 units $450
I hope you win this one XYZ, cause I like your tips! Your analysis is great and well thought out, stay off tilt tho bro!
Comment
Mase of Base
SBR MVP
07-24-12
3622
#1139
Whoa that's some coin thrown down. Does anyone have a weather report/update? Weather seems good today? I don't really understand the total if it's dry, that's really low. Guess the ground will still be fairly cut up.
Comment
gotov
SBR High Roller
06-16-10
198
#1140
I found this stat off nrl.com that supports your pick:
The Sea Eagles have won their past five Allianz Stadium fixtures, scoring 33.8 points per game in the process, and are undefeated at the venue since 2010. Manly have won 12 of their past 15 matches against the Roosters too, and the boys from Bondi have only once defeated the Sea Eagles twice in a season… in more than 30 years!
Good luch bro i might play the overs as well
Comment
benrama
SBR MVP
01-19-11
1499
#1141
Some relevant stats for tonight:
Manly on average give up 13.2 points, and are the #1 defense
Roosters on average give up 13.7 points, and are the #2 defense
The average score against top 8 opponents for Sydney is 35.6 points
The average score against top 8 opponents for Manly is 33.1 points
And the one time they met this season they scored 20 points total.
So it seems to me like odds makers have this line pretty much nailed - in fact the lean based on stats would be under. What's the angle here that makes you feel so confident?
Comment
s2230011
SBR Sharp
06-14-10
368
#1142
Thanks Benrama for pulling those together, I am not leaning anything but 2 things to say that both team's defence are nowhere near what they were at the beginning of the year. Without looking at numbers I am pretty sure both are leaking more the last few games than at the start of the year.
The other thing I want to say was that I remember the first game between those two sides very well and there was alot of butchered tries in the first half. It was fast and a few line breaks with the final passes going to ground. The game closed up in the second half and Eagles had a mountain of poessesion at the end against a 12 man defence but couldnt break.
I have a feeling the best play is Manly
Comment
rohan22no
SBR Sharp
07-20-11
365
#1143
I've got
1 unit Manly M/L,
.2 of a unit manly 13+,
1 unit over 33.5 total points
I will be sweating XYZ's all in!!
GOGOGOGOGOGOGOGO
Comment
benrama
SBR MVP
01-19-11
1499
#1144
Yea could be the defense is sliding, but for me there's only two recent anomalies - Manly vs Canterbury and Roosters vs Eels. And I can't see any fundamental reason for a slide, apart from maybe some SOO fatigue.
Maloney out for the Roosters will dent their attacking clout, but if Stewart plays for Manly I think the over starts to look more attractive - as does Manly, obviously.
I remember their last clash vividly too, and yes there were plenty of try scoring chances. Keep in mind though, one try - the only Manly try - was a bit fortuitous off the boot of Cherry Evans and one other try was in the last 2 minutes when the game was over. Take one of these away and give 3 others and it still would fall under.
There will be chances again tonight but what separates these teams is precisely their ability to keep teams out from close to the line. They slide well, read the offense well and are decent under the high ball.
Anyway I'm passing on the total so will cheer the over for mr XYZ, at this stage my strong lean is the Roosters - if Stewart doesn't play.
Comment
s2230011
SBR Sharp
06-14-10
368
#1145
Stewart in but foran out.
Like sbw over
Still think edge to manly
Comment
Sol
SBR High Roller
01-29-12
111
#1146
Good luck XYZ. I am rollin' with ya tonight. Hope for the best.
Comment
benrama
SBR MVP
01-19-11
1499
#1147
Strong late line movement to Roosters at Pinny, over at 33.5 has stayed firmly juiced at $1.77 (a good sign for the over backers, I have Pinny juiced totals hitting at >60% this season)
Comment
MrXYZ
SBR MVP
02-18-11
2342
#1148
Thanks guys for your insights. Been at work all day & haven't had time to respond. Stats may indicate a low scoring game but I'm expecting 36-38 points tonight. It's a theory of mine about defensive letfowns post-Origin. I reckon just about every game would've gone over this weekend if not for the rain.
tail or fade, good luck. This is the match of the round & it should be a thriller.
Comment
MrXYZ
SBR MVP
02-18-11
2342
#1149
Passing on a side but Manly ML would be my play.
Comment
MrXYZ
SBR MVP
02-18-11
2342
#1150
Buried. That's it for me. Bye fellas.
Comment
Mase of Base
SBR MVP
07-24-12
3622
#1151
Two of the easier tries you'll see blown and then that chance at the end was a massive blow. Only chance is the Roosters turning this into a rout which although unlikely isn't out of the question with how they've played they just need their share of ball.
Comment
YEP
SBR Rookie
06-17-13
16
#1152
8-0 Roosters half time.
A sheeit load of points left out there in that half
Comment
rohan22no
SBR Sharp
07-20-11
365
#1153
Not over yet XYZ....only need 4 converted tries in the half, still a decent chance
Comment
Tim Gerry Mander
SBR Wise Guy
11-14-12
869
#1154
Geez, no Maloney - no conversions
Need 26 points in the second half.
5 tries - impossible? Stranger things have happened.
Rooting for you buddy!
Comment
Mase of Base
SBR MVP
07-24-12
3622
#1155
That was incredibly unlucky it should of won quite easily. Missed conversions, two butchered tries and 3 times they got over the line but couldn't get it down, just one of those games.