-
Comment -
Opening MLs out. No surprises. Will be keeping an eye on the spreads to come out later today.
What a great weekend. I realize I haven't posted my SS for a while, but it all correlates with my posts in here. Reason - pure laziness. I haven't really been good at updating SS since bali. Got out of the habit then. This doesn't include that 1.5x live bet i was talking about earlier... Last few weeks that I haven't posted this have been up a few hundred, nothing special.
Overall season record is: Win Percentage 62.25% | 94-57 Net: $5,289.61
Comment -
Lol, the good luck from the weekend continues.
I had a fight with sportbet about the eagles/tigers game. I accidentally bet Tigers +41.5. I basically went all in $165.00), as I had deposited $200 there, so it didn't look like i was just going to rort them on the $500 in FPs I have coming... I got onto live chat as soon as I placed the bet and they told me they wouldn't refund it.
I told them that I was going to have to bet the eagles at pinny and i wouldn't be reloading with them when the Tigers lost and that pinny had better lines anyway.
I checked today and the bet was voided
Not sure why or when that happened, but there is no record of it AT ALL anywhere. So that was +$365 on eagles game. Nice.. Would have been pissed if eagles didn't cover and it was voided... that would have hurt.
As for tonight, I'm going to go with Sth Sydney... Centrebet touting the dog again.Comment -
Did you get an email about Parra from Centerbet?Comment -
centrebet said: Eels $2.27 to make Rabbit stew!
Enough to have a monday night 1 unit bet!Comment -
I really hate betting on/against the Rabbitohs, they lose games they should win and win games they should lose. Screwed me heaps this year. Might just take the over and hope for a high scoring game.Comment -
Yeah. I have been looking more into it and I don't know if I can take the Rabbitoh's or a side in this one.
I have a few late meetings and would only get to watch the 2nd half. I think I will pass today.
Totals seem like a crapshoot in NRL for me, but good luck on your over alt!
Whilst I would normally fade centrebet at every opportunity, the email wasn't as convincing as it usually is. I also think there is a good chance we are getting RLMed on this one too. I see (at betfair) over 75% on the Rabbitoh's ML, yet I know the line opened at 4 at some places and is now at 3.5. In those circumstances, I can't play it.
The obvious angle is the Eels will stop trying now and South have everything to play for. We know that historically across all sports that doesn't necessarily mean jack. Good luck to those of you who play it!Comment -
sportsbet have already paid out on judd to win the brownlow
here is the article. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/af...-1226110940877Comment -
I learn something new everyday about sports betting (I only started researching about it this year). Why would they do that?Comment -
I heard that this morning brettels. Its stupid IMO. We all know crazy things happen in brownlows and the favourite rarely wins.
Its a calculated punt on publicity vs winning i suppose... sportsbet is one of those books that puts a ridiculous amount of money into advertising, rather than having a better service. Aussies aren't the type to shop around for books, whereas I have about 6 outs - sportsbet isn't one of them. sportbet is though
kings: I have basically been fading centrebet all year. I have not kept a record, but I would predict about 55-60% ats. Just wish I'd got on last night... the fact it was such a square play scared me off, but the email was telling me not to worry about that... i didn't listen
Last edited by Gee; 08-08-11, 07:37 PM.Comment -
All the suckers will think Judd is a cert to win the Brownlow now and jump on at $1.90. They win on the juice for what should still be a +ev bet. If he loses, the money on brownlow futures paid out would be far less than what they take on the brownlow after the minor season has finished. If he wins they still win on the juice, paid out on winning future bets which they would have done anyway and either way free advertising across all Aus sporting media and get a bunch of Herald Sun reading squares to sign up and load up on sportsbet thinking they are the Mahatma freakin Gandhi of sportsbetting.Comment -
Alt nailed it on the head. It's simply a smart business play on their part to generate favourable publicity and get punters (old and new) talking about them.Comment -
It's simply an advertising/marketing campaign on sportsbets site.
Gee, I know what u mean by square play but sometimes we need to be square lolComment -
Not sure if anything's changed since the opening:
...Comment -
The spreads are the same as I got... but some of the Mls have changed.
e.g. Essendon opened at 1.7, now its 1.77.
I don't pay that much attention to ML's unless its a v. close game.
ps. thanks for the post. Even though I send myself a daily email, sometimes i find myself on SBR looking through this thread for some reason... Some good insight here worth reading before having a bet usually anyway
Nothing really stands out...Comment -
St Kilda line might be playable. Have to take a closer look of course.Comment -
And the swans line!Comment -
screenshot some QT lines again.
Any guesses on the totals?Comment -
-
hmmm, west coast and brisbane for now. brisbane should beat GC this time.Comment -
Mr. Gee? Where is your brain?Comment -
Sportsbet won't let me verify. Screw them, they can go to hell
Comment -
Why won't they let you verify?Comment -
I have absolutely no idea, it seems that my only option now is to go through the certified documentation process and I'm not willing to do that.Comment -
Call them if you havnt already. It's worth it if you can be bothered.Comment -
Friday night preview by brettels
St.kilda(6) vs Collingwood(1) Etihad stadium
odds line QT line
saints 6.35 saints +37.5 1.92 saints +9.5 1.92
pies 1.12 pies -37.5 1.92 pies -9.5 1.92
Both sides have won there last 5!
Last time they played in round 11 at the mcg the quarter time score was collingwood 2.4.16 - saints 2.1.13, collingwood went on to win the match by 56 points, but the saints play their best footy at Etihad stadium and their form has greatly improved since. The saints have won 15 first quarters in 2011 so far to collingwoods 13. The last time these two played at Etihad was in round 3 2010, on a friday night. The saints won the first quarter 2.2.14 to 1.4.10 and won the game 69-41! Saints have beaten collingwood 4 out of the last 5 at Etihad, but the last 5 between these two including the finals have been pies, pies, draw, pies, saints. If there is a trend from those recent games its that the pies have beaten the saints by 40+ each time and all at the mcg.
Other bets that might be worth a shot.
Qtr by Qtr leader
Saints/pies/pies/pies 8.00
milne most goals 5.50
I'm going for a good start to the saints and taking the +9.5 Quarter time line. Collingwood to win SU but the saints to cover the +37.5 line, only because its at Etihad stadium where the saints shine. Or, the pies 1-39 might be of good value.
Will do a write up on the total match points when they are up tommorow.Comment -
I definitely like Saints/pies/pies/pies 8.00, I was going to post the same thing. I also like milne most goals.
For a fun $1 bet, think about Milne to kick first goal.
Another good one imo is crows/cats/cats/cats and crows to win the first quarter, when the lines open for that.Comment -
Crows QT line +12.5
Crows to lead at quarter time 3.90Comment -
Total for Saints v Pies up on bet365 175.5
Was expecting a bit higher, maybe take an early play on the over.
Not digging Milne for most goals, think O'Brien/Davis and Collingwoods defence will keep him quiet and shut down Saints forward line. Cloke imo should get the best delivery in a sterile ground like Etihad.
Milne or Blair for first goal, is worth a shot, although I don't play those props.
I was leaning Pies to cover 1Q and possibly cover, win comfortably. St.Kilda haven't really beaten any one aside West Coast at Etihad. I don't think the result will be much different than the MCG in rd11. St.Kilda to come back down to earth and realise they haven't got a chance in hell in September.Comment -
I was predicting the total to be 177.5! not bad. will wait to see what sportsbet put the total as. already thinking overComment -
I would have expected 185/195 for the total, considering Collingwood's scoring prowess. Saints struggle to score against decent comp though. My early lean is Collingwood by 120ish to Saints 80ish
It's already dropped to 174.5, someones jumped on early on the under.Comment -
I also like the Pies/St over, Pies should penetrate Saint's defence well enough.Comment -
If centrebet/sportsbet have a similar total the Pies TT can't be more than 100/110. That could be a solid bet.
Do you follow UFC brettels?
I dunno if they've made an error but they have 2 props for this weekends UFC Live. Chris Lytle and Benson Henderson by ko/tko at $13.50 and $15.25 respectively. I put a dollar on each and the double to win $300.
Lytle should outclass/experience Dan Hardy and is a much better boxer, tko/ko is definitely possible. Henderson is a strong wrestler fighting Jim Miller, predominantly a grappler. Henderson will be able to dictate the fight and while he is usually a decision machine a tko via refs stoppage isn't out of the realm of possibility. Worth a shot at 300/3 if you wanna chance a few bucks
Last edited by Alt75; 08-11-11, 08:54 AM.Comment -
ALT, do you often compare the bet365 totals to sportsbet/centrebet? If so are they different and by how much?Comment
