AFL opening spreads

[brettels]

Good stuff alt. trying to point you for that but sbr isn't allowing it right now.

i like saints QT line. Saints aren't in a position to start resting players yet and will field best available side, and they almost always start very well.
geelong im not sure about will see who is playing, whos rested etc...
Carlton QT line looks the goods.
Possibly Essendon QT line given they start well most times. But its also a bit iffy wether or not to put something on it.
Port could challenge the pies for a quarter but still think the pies could cover that QT line.
Brisbane QT is worth a little punt.
Hawks maybe, like the cats it comes down to whos being selected this week. will find out tonight.
west coast QT line looks the goods aswell.

thats what im thinking now, after teams are announced i'll do some proper research but thats my gut feeling at first look.

[donkson]

Looked at some future bets, I think this one has great value, I got: Player To Win Coleman Medal 2011? 2913. T. Cloke 4.850 Risking 5.00 to Win 19.25 AUD

Definitely good value.

[donkson]

Essendon don't start well at all. They're 3-9 in their last 12 1Qs. Sydney are 7-4-1.

[brettels]

true, as i said i will look into it properly, i just remember there better starts like vs the best team in the league last weekend.

[Lookingtostart]

I like the Eagles quarter timeline too, Eagles start well, richmond's richmond, and they will be even more richmond playing at Subi (sorry brettels, no offence to richmond supporters).

[Alt75]

I like the Eagles quarter timeline too, Eagles start well, richmond's richmond, and they will be even more richmond playing at Subi (sorry brettels, no offence to richmond supporters).

You can't offend a Richmond supporter any worse than their own team can

Oh and don't worry about the points brettels, appreciate the thought mate but meh I'm happy to contribute in here, if I want more points I'll bet with what I have, cut my losses and let them build up by logging in every day.

[brettels]

Its true, richmond suck and i can't see them turning that corner any time soon.

[benrama]

First week in a while where I don't like any of the lines.

At the moment only looking at playing:

St Kilda 1H
West Coast 1H
Geelong -89.5

West Coast in particular is a very strong lean. West Coast is one of the strongest 1H teams and Richmond one of the weakest: http://afl.allthestats.com/index.php...ry=1&inyr=2011

If Geelong cover I will also be looking at the Collingwood game as these two are in an unofficial points margin race.

[Alt75]

Opening total on Saints v Dockers 170.5

First game of the year for Freo at Etihad, they're 9-26 all time at the ground. Pretty abysmal record against the Saints at 11-14. Last year 2-4 there, 15 point loss to Saints, 19 point loss to Tigers, 8 goal win over Essendon, 9 points over Carlton but got thrashed by North and Bulldogs. Not sure what to think about the line or margin

Saints 1-39 or Freo +36.5 going by the stats/history but I can also see a big win to the Saints if they fire and Freo chokes and plays like rubbish in Melbourne as they are frequently prone too.

Freo will want to bounce back from last weeks poor performance at home and Saints weren't really impressive against the Suns who they should have beaten by a much larger margin, but with Freo not playing there this year they may be a bit unfamiliar at the ground, they have a few injuries/omissions on both sides.

The teams and summary and article relevant to the game.

SUMMARY
Two top eight teams, one surging back from a disastrous start to the season, the other seemingly on the way out after fighting a valiant battle with a crippling run of injuries.

For Fremantle, it's win now or risk slipping from the finals radar.

Unfortunately for Mark Harvey's men, their 51-point home loss to Hawthorn featured yet more important players going down.

Rhys Palmer (ankle) and Matt de Boer (knee) have joined the likes of Aaron Sandilands (toe) and David Mundy (leg) on the sidelines, making the challenge of beating the in-form Saints at Etihad Stadium even greater.

St Kilda by comparison is purring along beautifully.

The Saints are on a five game winning streak and, with key players back in form, have likely September rivals nervous.

Midfielder Nick Dal Santo has been particularly damaging in recent weeks.

Throw in the history between the teams: the Saints have won their last seven against Freo, and have never lost to the men in purple at Etihad Stadium, and it's hard to mount a convincing case for the visitors.

FREMANTLE still has September firmly on its mind and believes it can make an impact in the finals despite losing its past two games.

Freo travelled to Melbourne on Thursday ahead of Friday night's clash against St Kilda, and assistant coach Barry Mitchell said the club needed to win at least three of the remaining five games to ensure a finals berth.

Mitchell said he was confident the team could not only do that but also shake up the top eight when the finals started on September 9.

"We've still got a couple of players who are around the corner to coming back, [Aaron] Sandilands and [David] Mundy, and they'll make an enormous difference to our side," Mitchell said at Melbourne's Junction Oval on Thursday night.

"We think once we get there, we can cause a bit of damage."

Fremantle is two premiership points behind the seventh-placed Saints, and there is just another two separating it from the ninth-placed Bombers.

Despite the Bombers, North Melbourne and Melbourne challenging for that eighth spot, Mitchell said the club didn't feel as though it was simply "hanging on".

"The whole aim of the season is to get into the finals and compete from there, so whether we're hanging on or not, that's up to perception or your interpretations," he said.

"We don't feel that's how we are. We feel we're a good side. We won a final last year and we'll look to do the same this year."

Last week's 51-point loss to Hawthorn, which was played in driving rain at Patersons Stadium, prompted a couple of changes to the line up with Ryan Crowley and Jack Anthony omitted, and Rhys Palmer (ankle) and Matt DeBoer (knee) out injured.

Luke McPharlin returns from a one-week suspension while Clayton Hinkley and Nick Suban are in along with big man Kepler Bradley, who last played seniors in round 14 against the Brisbane Lions.

Mitchell said the club hoped Bradley could help expose the Saints' depleted defence and had earned his recall.

"On the back of the performance last week, we felt we had to make some changes, so we did," he said.

"Kepler is a big man and we hope we can exploit that area a bit with [James] Gwilt and [Zac] Dawson out. So hopefully we can get the ball in quick enough to him and he can put some pressure on them.

"He kicked a number of goals early in the season and was going quite well, and he probably dried up for about three weeks.

"His form was OK but I think throughout the year you have to play a number of players anyway, as we see with all teams. You need 30 players playing.

"It's not the end of the world for him to go back to the WAFL for a couple of games. I think he's played well for West Perth and his performances earlier in the year probably warranted him getting another go."

Mitchell said maintaining a better standard of ball use was important this week after a sloppy display against the Hawks.

He said the players were feeling good despite the trying conditions of last week and the fact they travelled on a six-day break.

"It was very wet and the rain was probably as hard as I've seen a game being played in," he said.

"They've pulled up well... We haven't done a lot of training this week, it's been another six-day break so they've been well looked after and we should be fresh for the game."

[binomial]

short turn around for freo plus they are missing about 5 first team mid fielders.

thinking of playing saints.

[benrama]

Saints match up well with Freo, and thrashed them at Patersons. Friday night football is funny business though, that's what is making me stay away from the full game line. I can see Freo coming home strong and Saints faltering at the end of the game like they have many times this season.

[Lookingtostart]

Does anyone know if Bet365 or pinny ever open 1st quarter lines and when? I know Bet365 have 1st quarter money lines, but there's nothing in the points spread section.

I don't want to use sportsbet because their verification process is too complicated/unknown as I have a DC.

[Alt75]

Bet365 only have 1Q ML's, they have handicaps for the quarters in play. Maybe the 1Q one comes up shortly before start of the game.

Sportsbet is easy to verify with the e-identi thing, drivers licence, tax file number, medicare card #'s. You can use most banks debit cards or poli is a good option if you have pay anyone access enabled on your bank account. There's no credit surcharge, it's an instantly credited/approved b2b transfer.

[Lookingtostart]

Thanks, I'll try again, but it's withdrawing that I'm really worried about.

[Alt75]

Once you're verified as an Aus resident over 18 it's as easy as depositing when you've entered a payment method, mines set to bank transfer via DC. Enter the amount, your password and click make withdrawal.

I think the only reason sportsbet cops some flak is limiting sharps/big winners. It's an established Aus book, withdrawals are the least of your worries.

St.Kilda TT 102.5
Fremantle TT 67.5


edited to hide my retardation

[donkson]

Bet365 has a bad rep for limiting as well.

[Gee]

Alt you hamburger! The 85.5 is the half time o/u!

[Alt75]

Fucken hell 1 beer and I can't even tell the diff between "home team" and "half time"

[brettels]

Saints qt line is looking better than having a go at the over/under for now I reckon

[Alt75]

Saints 1Q line is down a point to -8.5, lead us all to salvation with your 1Q sharpness brettels

[donkson]

I need to sign up to a book that actually gives lines for 1Qs, I'm surprised centrebet only gives MLs.

Especially when they offer HT lines, seems weird.

[Lookingtostart]

How about quarter by quarter leader?

Quarter By Quarter Leader

collapse

Draw At End Of Any Quarter 8.00 St Kilda/St Kilda/St Kilda/St Kilda 1.53 St Kilda/St Kilda/St Kilda/Fremantle 36.00 St Kilda/St Kilda/Fremantle/St Kilda 34.00 St Kilda/St Kilda/Fremantle/Fremantle 35.00 St Kilda/Fremantle/St Kilda/St Kilda 24.00 St Kilda/Fremantle/St Kilda/Fremantle 134.00 St Kilda/Fremantle/Fremantle/St Kilda 36.00 St Kilda/Fremantle/Fremantle/Fremantle 30.00 Fremantle/Fremantle/Fremantle/Fremantle 13.00 Fremantle/Fremantle/Fremantle/St Kilda 24.00 Fremantle/Fremantle/St Kilda/Fremantle 69.00 Fremantle/Fremantle/St Kilda/St Kilda 16.00 Fremantle/St Kilda/Fremantle/Fremantle 62.00 Fremantle/St Kilda/Fremantle/St Kilda 58.00 Fremantle/St Kilda/St Kilda/Fremantle 83.00 Fremantle/St Kilda/St Kilda/St Kilda 8.00



Fecking copy/paste

[benrama]

Saints 1Q bet is a good one as they top in the league for winning their 1Q's, 14 won, higher than any other team.

LTS - I think the quarter by quarter leader bet is an excellent one, didn't think of that myself. Solid odds there.

Along with my normal bets for a bit of action I'm putting $25 on a Saints/Freo half-time/full-time bet at 20:1, if I win I'll shout you all a beer tomorrow

[Lookingtostart]

Good luck everyone,

Benrama, I'll be looking forward to downloading that beer somehow

[brettels]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sports-promotions-links/1166241-1st-bet-bonus-new-members.html

my sportsbet links page if you want a $150 free bet since some are thinking of joining. yeah im affiliate so choose as you wish. only $100 bonus without my link. no pressure but i would love it if i got some sign ups.

have gone with with saints qt line, not enough on the moneyline.

[Gee]

Under and saints 1q for 2x each. Just wanted to get this in before bounce.

[brettels]

gee, can you tell me where you get those avatars from? they have all been awesome.

why'd you take the under? i would have gone over but under in the 180's 90's, good luck i hope you win.

[brettels]

every one cashed qt line good!!


looks safe for the under so far gee

[brettels]

its looking overs now at half time. hope they slow down, saints usually do and get into defence mode. freo might win there first game in melbourne for 100 years, its tight.

[benrama]

$25 at 20:1, come on, one time! Haha! Saints are showing why they are still pretenders, long way to go in this game though.

Edited to add: unbelieveable that this 1Q STK streak continues, I'll be riding the streak with West Coast 1H too, can't put my finger on why these trends persist but the books don't adjust to them

[brettels]

bad luck on the unders gee. im outta here, back on for saturday games, peace

[Alt75]

No early totals on bet365 this morning, strange that all of a sudden they've not put them up by now. Was curious to see what they capped Cats v Suns at.

Either its one off slackness or they're been stung on them recently, although there was no diff between Saints v Dockers opening on bet365 and the Aus books. The bloody pommy bet365 staff are probably wagering over who can make the best tea and scones in the cafeteria.

[brettels]

It's early days! Even sportsbet havnt got em up yet! It's frustrating when they give you a short time before the bounce to make your play! Request after request and they won't put em up early! But Saturday's are usually up by now there too so maybe they are packing themselves over Geelong at all the books!

[Alt75]

As I've mentioned bet365 have Saturday's totals up as early Friday night 11pm to usually no later than 5am Saturday. Strange all of a sudden they aren't.




Now bet365 have them up pretty much the same.

Cats Suns 205.5
Blues Demons 183.5
Essendon Sydney 180.5
Port - Collingwood 187.5

[brettels]

I like over in all of them! I'm just an overs kind of guy 90% of the time