Horse Racing questions and answers

[Madison]

GP R4 #2. Odds ridiculous. 4 of 6 off 200 days or more, him off 385. Looks to me like a possible Arrogate beast??

The late odds are just intolerable. The 2 was a huge underlay to place and show. With 0 time to go I placed a 40/40 plc and show. Late money comes in like 80K win and 40K to place and show. I make the right bet as he fades to 2nd and I get 2.10.

[Madison]

I still have not seen this horses form so I am assuming here. He laid 3rd and typically lays I assume more like 6-7th and back maybe 7-9 lengths early??

Yesterday with blinkers on, he breaks and the rider shakes the reins at him right way. The blinkers have him on the bit and he is fine with responding. And he does, and ends up inside with a horse leaning on him all the way down the backside. If you watch just your horses rider, watch how he continues to ask the horse to keep his right eye clear of the outside horse. Early down the backside, again as they approach the far turn . By that time he has been asked 3 times already and he is barely into the far turn.
now.. let’s stop for a moment.
Question: have any of you ever done a kind of workout or exercise routine where you do the same basic thing each time? Like walking for 30 minutes and maybe starting very normally and then picking it up for those last 5 minutes? Or inside and doing sit ups at a certain pace that might finish up faster than at the start?
It can be anything really but structured pace wise.
If you have , and you change the pace I will tell you what happens. You typically get winded towards the end if you pushed harder earlier than normal.
That is exactly what happened to this horse. His breathing and pace he was used to was changed up and he expelled too much energy than he was accustomed to and the result was, he was winded.
This sets up a potentially very solid effort next out but he will need the help of the people involved to either take those blinkers back off or cut the cup back a little and most importantly, allow him to run the race he is accustomed to. If they do that, he will drastically improve the effort next time.

If I could see his previous form and validate his previous performances that would help a lot.

But either way, the reason he flattened out was simply he was winded from lung capacity that was compromised by early asks on 3 separate occasions.

As always, much appreciated!!

[str]

Thanks Bud. I thought the blinkers might get him more in the race, which they did, and then he flattened like a pancake despite coming off closing well previously. ???

Yes, they put blinkers on and I suspected he might break better. He did and the value in my bet was him running 2 or 3rd. When he came out that sharp I was worrying that I made the wrong play and that he might win. Last of my thoughts that he would falter?

I still have not seen this horses form so I am assuming here. He laid 3rd and typically lays I assume more like 6-7th and back maybe 7-9 lengths early??

Yesterday with blinkers on, he breaks and the rider shakes the reins at him right way. The blinkers have him on the bit and he is fine with responding. And he does, and ends up inside with a horse leaning on him all the way down the backside. If you watch just your horses rider, watch how he continues to ask the horse to keep his right eye clear of the outside horse. Early down the backside, again as they approach the far turn . By that time he has been asked 3 times already and he is barely into the far turn.
now.. let’s stop for a moment.
Question: have any of you ever done a kind of workout or exercise routine where you do the same basic thing each time? Like walking for 30 minutes and maybe starting very normally and then picking it up for those last 5 minutes? Or inside and doing sit ups at a certain pace that might finish up faster than at the start?
It can be anything really but structured pace wise.
If you have , and you change the pace I will tell you what happens. You typically get winded towards the end if you pushed harder earlier than normal.
That is exactly what happened to this horse. His breathing and pace he was used to was changed up and he expelled too much energy than he was accustomed to and the result was, he was winded.
This sets up a potentially very solid effort next out but he will need the help of the people involved to either take those blinkers back off or cut the cup back a little and most importantly, allow him to run the race he is accustomed to. If they do that, he will drastically improve the effort next time.

If I could see his previous form and validate his previous performances that would help a lot.

But either way, the reason he flattened out was simply he was winded from lung capacity that was compromised by early asks on 3 separate occasions.

[Madison]

Couple of interesting races:

SA R2 #6 8-1 5th of 6 entries. Anyone think this guy outruns his ML?

GP R4 #2. Odds ridiculous. 4 of 6 off 200 days or more, him off 385. Looks to me like a possible Arrogate beast??

Other one is SUN R9 #4 Getaway Car. High expectations here. 9 is a Liams/Tiznow who has underperformed to date.

[Madison]

Well that didn't take long. You said this horse typically runs from well back early correct? Not laying 3rd. Please confirm that and I will explain.

Yes, they put blinkers on and I suspected he might break better. He did and the value in my bet was him running 2 or 3rd. When he came out that sharp I was worrying that I made the wrong play and that he might win. Last of my thoughts that he would falter?

[Madison]

I feel ya Madison.... Been there myself wondering how a horse finishes off the board....

Thanks Bud. I thought the blinkers might get him more in the race, which they did, and then he flattened like a pancake despite coming off closing well previously. ???

[str]

I think I'm about to give up.

I liked FG R9 #2 Cromwell. Didn't think he could be off the board. He has usually come from well back to be 2nd. Blinkers on he breaks stalking for 3rd with the 2 speed horses. I play 2/1357 and same with him 2nd and 3rd for $2 figuring he'd get stuck and grab a piece. He gets caught late for 3rd by the 1 and it runs 5/7/1/2. The .50 tri pays $150. That's a $600 beat by a horse I was cursing I didn't pound w/p/s on the break. How does a horse regress 10 lenghts in 3 weeks against the same competition??

BOL to all.

Madison, don't give up. You have too much of an eye with all your experience. Horses can run off races by 10 lengths or more. I will look at the replay and see if I see anything.

Well that didn't take long. You said this horse typically runs from well back early correct? Not laying 3rd. Please confirm that and I will explain.

[str]

I think I'm about to give up.

I liked FG R9 #2 Cromwell. Didn't think he could be off the board. He has usually come from well back to be 2nd. Blinkers on he breaks stalking for 3rd with the 2 speed horses. I play 2/1357 and same with him 2nd and 3rd for $2 figuring he'd get stuck and grab a piece. He gets caught late for 3rd by the 1 and it runs 5/7/1/2. The .50 tri pays $150. That's a $600 beat by a horse I was cursing I didn't pound w/p/s on the break. How does a horse regress 10 lenghts in 3 weeks against the same competition??

BOL to all.

Madison, don't give up. You have too much of an eye with all your experience. Horses can run off races by 10 lengths or more. I will look at the replay and see if I see anything.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Yes EZ. I recommend them. They also run weekend specials in certain races sometimes where you bet to win and if you run 2nd or 3rd, you get your money back. Certain horses within that race can be no brainers. Certainly worth a look if it is offered. Just a small perk but it beats a blank.

OK thx STR. I would recommend to you ESPN Bet if you have them in MD. Solid shop.

[str]

NO ADW's are open for business down here. I think NC priced themselves out of the market to do business and they need to revisit. If NYRA bets opens for business I will join. NYRA my favorite circuit and looks like a good book.

Yes EZ. I recommend them. They also run weekend specials in certain races sometimes where you bet to win and if you run 2nd or 3rd, you get your money back. Certain horses within that race can be no brainers. Certainly worth a look if it is offered. Just a small perk but it beats a blank.

[str]

I had to do a double take today at Fair grounds. Something I don't think I've ever seen... Warrior Johny was entered in both the 11th and 12th races. He scratched out of race 12.

I always thought you had to declare before entries were taken.

You can only do that if it is a stakes race and you have paid to nominate and enter. If either had been an allowance race with that small a field, he would have been "stuck" in the allowance race and would not have had the option.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Is NYRA Bets an option EZ?

NO ADW's are open for business down here. I think NC priced themselves out of the market to do business and they need to revisit. If NYRA bets opens for business I will join. NYRA my favorite circuit and looks like a good book.

[str]

^ cool good deal STR. BOL with the account. It is legal to wager pari- mutual in my state but still not an option for some reason. No ADW's have opened shop down here yet a year into legality. So I run contests on the forum and play Horse tourneys and Derby wars.

Is NYRA Bets an option EZ?

[str]

Straight No Chaser stretching his legs...

What a Hambone !!
He is looking right at the camera. Lol.

Ok Batt question for you. Do you know how many times those bandages that are on his legs go around the leg? Have to think you have put on your share. I'm a nut job so don't think you are supposed to. Most people don't but naturally, I over analyzed it when I was a groom and Mr. Berry, my groom mentor explained it to me and how to put them on so they never sag or come down.
I would bet that the groom in charge of that horse did not put those on. Maybe the exercise rider helped out? IDK, but I can tell they are different than they should be.
Don't mind me Batt, I'm a nut job.Lol.

[Easy-Rider 66]

^ cool good deal STR. BOL with the account. It is legal to wager pari- mutual in my state but still not an option for some reason. No ADW's have opened shop down here yet a year into legality. So I run contests on the forum and play Horse tourneys and Derby wars.

[str]

Thanks STR!

One other thing I would mention is foaling month... Being an April foal she could be up to 3 months behind others in her age group. A bigger factor early in their careers of course.

I know from the commercial selling / buying point the later the foal the bigger the discount.... as a general rule.

You are spot on Batt !
I have written about this from a few years ago, I guess, but try to remind everyone when May and June rolls around of their 2 yr. old year.
It is such a significant edge that I don't hear handicappers talk about that much if at all. Maybe they do and I just don't know about it, but it is a must for the public to realize when looking at babies running. A January foal is so much more advanced than a May foal until it all catches up into their 3 year old year.
Good stuff Batt. Great that you mention that.

[str]

Hey STR did you ever sign up to the above site?

No EZ. But I did sign up and put 200.00 in NYRA bets. I got a 200.00 free play match and have access to replays for a ton of tracks which was the main purpose. I've only bet a few times but I'm in good shape, used the free play, have funds to play if needed and the replays are great.
I would not have done that without your encouragement so thank you for that.

It really comes in handy watching replays. And in case there is a play I decide to make, I have funds to do so.

[JBEX]

by army mule..oak R10 #9 war mule (30-1)@ 6:23

arkansas bred who broke his maiden first out (last start) vs statebred msw..it was a muddy track and he earned a very low figure explains why the ml is so high

racing canceled after R5 due to bad weather

[batt33]

I think I'm about to give up.

I liked FG R9 #2 Cromwell. Didn't think he could be off the board. He has usually come from well back to be 2nd. Blinkers on he breaks stalking for 3rd with the 2 speed horses. I play 2/1357 and same with him 2nd and 3rd for $2 figuring he'd get stuck and grab a piece. He gets caught late for 3rd by the 1 and it runs 5/7/1/2. The .50 tri pays $150. That's a $600 beat by a horse I was cursing I didn't pound w/p/s on the break. How does a horse regress 10 lenghts in 3 weeks against the same competition??

BOL to all.

I feel ya Madison.... Been there myself wondering how a horse finishes off the board....

[Madison]

I think I'm about to give up.

I liked FG R9 #2 Cromwell. Didn't think he could be off the board. He has usually come from well back to be 2nd. Blinkers on he breaks stalking for 3rd with the 2 speed horses. I play 2/1357 and same with him 2nd and 3rd for $2 figuring he'd get stuck and grab a piece. He gets caught late for 3rd by the 1 and it runs 5/7/1/2. The .50 tri pays $150. That's a $600 beat by a horse I was cursing I didn't pound w/p/s on the break. How does a horse regress 10 lenghts in 3 weeks against the same competition??

BOL to all.