Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

by army mule..fairgrounds R7 #7 flick (10-1) @ 4:45

first time starter and trainer is bad at that..has a nice turf sprint pedigree (AM's run on grass and bottom also) but I think and sure str would agree the trainer info takes precedence .. considering that a good effort here would show a lot

Agree JBEX. The trainer stats usually should take precedent. In a perfect world, this horse breaks a bit tardy today, which goes to the preparation of a firster sometimes, shows hidden run, which I assume he has being by AM, and runs back next time in the same type of race, or lesser, which would be a gift as this does not look like a real tough event. When you watch for things, this is stuff that can really show up.
Am I surprised if he runs well today? No, they all seem to. But if what I mentioned happens, he could be a real decent play next out. Trainers win %'s probably increase a bit as a 2nd time starter, then 3rd. A horse to watch closely today IMO.
Thanks for the heads up. This one is worth following I think.

thanks str..

couple of more by AM today

turf paradise R2 @ 3:24
#2 come on mulitch (2-1)

turfway R8 @ 9:25
#4 top (8-1)




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[Madison]

Looked like a 1/9 shot.

[Madison]

Turfway R5 #12 8-1 Askari. OFF 517. Just came out of my stable. I had him flagged as "can't wait for next". Needless to say he owes me money.

Ran his first 3 in the Pletcher barn. First 2 on the turf at MON, then an off the turf at SAR. Slow, but looks like he can run forever. Shows up today GELDED since last and new barn Christopher Davis??

Anyone has a moment to look would appreciate a comment.

Best,

obviously a serious setback to be off that long and a mid level track makes sense to ease the level of competition .. trainer has solid numbers

you know he can run fresh

broke his maiden on the turf and tapit's primarily a dirt site (one of the premier ones) would lead me to believe he might take to the tapeta surface there

still owned by the breeders and he's not up for sale so connections feel he still has some ability..


side note: there's a by liam's map
#6 liam the brave (20-1) who doesn't look bad at that price

A couple of notes here. The gelding makes perfect sense. That now 5 year old would have gained so much weight as a colt/horse as a 4 and 5 yr. old, that it would have put his injury, whatever it was in harms way big time. Smart move IMO.

Owner retains the horse so they did and still do feel there is some potential there. The trainer had decent numbers and if he is known to Todd and the owners, that is good enough for me. Was he worth a small play? yeah, probably. Is he worth continuing to follow? Absolutely ! He will most likely win within his next two starts.
Hang on to him in the stable Madison and let's follow him for the next two races.

Madison, please do keep this horse in your stable and let us know when he runs back. I just saw the replay and that effort was actually full of promise with what went on that was difficult to see.

If you watch it again, watch for these things:

1. The horse was unprepared for the start as was the rider. The starter gave them no time to get set. That was not cool at all. I do understand with a 12 horse field but that was ridiculous.

2. The rider lost his inside iron when it hit the gate coming out. Took him a few strides to get it back. That, just like with Deterministic last year prompted the horse to react by running off into and around the first turn and early down the backside into a blistering early pace. A total waste of energy.

He was 6 wide all the way around the 1st turn and I am being generous.

Finally settles some, but not enough to be pleased with, half way down then backside and still has enough to try and finish. By now the race is starting to go really slow. The last 1/4 mile in 27 and change shows that. So the making up of ground which ended when this horse became out of gas about the 1/4 pole was totally acceptable IMO for his 1st race back and what had happened up to that point.
He also never switched leads through the lane which showed you that he was so concerned with tired that he forgot. The horse had no concentration whatsoever that last 1/4 mile. Yet, when galloping out, he does not stop early, he actually gallops out very decently.

IMO,. this race is a hidden gem. This is the kind of race I stuck around for the last race for all those years ago. If I picked this race apart horse by horse, there might be 3-4 horses in here that would be very eligible to be claimed due to the fast early time, the slow late time, and all the incidentals that occurred. I lived for these types of races back then.

PLEASE keep us posted on this horse !

If you are the type of handicapper that watches every race everyday at a track and bets selectively, this race is a dream come true.

The chart comment was: "Askari never menaced throughout."

It should have said, "was always menaced by something throughout".

They even threw the odds up on the upper left corner of the screen and blocked most from seeing this guy through the late stretch. Lol.

Watching, and possibly betting this horse in his next two starts is a must IMO.

Hope this transfers. First multi quote repost. Askari $13/$5/$4 wps last night TP R9.

[str]

by army mule..fairgrounds R7 #7 flick (10-1) @ 4:45

first time starter and trainer is bad at that..has a nice turf sprint pedigree (AM's run on grass and bottom also) but I think and sure str would agree the trainer info takes precedence .. considering that a good effort here would show a lot

Agree JBEX. The trainer stats usually should take precedent. In a perfect world, this horse breaks a bit tardy today, which goes to the preparation of a firster sometimes, shows hidden run, which I assume he has being by AM, and runs back next time in the same type of race, or lesser, which would be a gift as this does not look like a real tough event. When you watch for things, this is stuff that can really show up.
Am I surprised if he runs well today? No, they all seem to. But if what I mentioned happens, he could be a real decent play next out. Trainers win %'s probably increase a bit as a 2nd time starter, then 3rd. A horse to watch closely today IMO.
Thanks for the heads up. This one is worth following I think.

[JBEX]

by army mule..fairgrounds R7 #7 flick (10-1) @ 4:45

first time starter and trainer is bad at that..has a nice turf sprint pedigree (AM's run on grass and bottom also) but I think and sure str would agree the trainer info takes precedence .. considering that a good effort here would show a lot

[str]

[QUOTE=batt33;31405919]

looked at my notes ... STR! Thanks ![/QUOTE

okay in my stable alerts I had "STR likes" for the life of me can't find the post that you mentioned it.

Not sure either. Do you mean "like" in the next race off it's last effort to run real well, or the baby that is the life of the party who is my favorite baby so far?
Black Tie Optional is the goof ball with a great personality. He makes me laugh. And THAT, is the kind of stuff you wish you could see in the mornings training. I'm laughing inside just thinking about it.

[JBEX]

https://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2025-brown-using-tampa-derby-get-chancer-mcpatrick-rolling

chancer mcpatrick running in saturday's tampa bay derby..says in the article he had a tiny flake surgically removed from a front ankle after the bc juvenile .. said he also had a quarter crack on a hind foot..str do you think with the latter they mean it was something that happened during the race ?



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[batt33]

https://myracehorse.com/app/home

[batt33]

And Fyi "straight no chaser" looks no worse for the wear...... looks like the boss.... uhm because he is the bosshttps://x.com/AdolphsonRacing/status/1897131842060407020?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw% 7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1897131 842060407020%7Ctwgr%5E513b79b55dffa4b930 a291df29833cfb019937b4%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref _url=https%3A%2F%2Fmyracehorse.com%2Fapp %2Fhome

[batt33]

[QUOTE=batt33;31405916]looked at my notes ... STR! Thanks ![/QUOTE

okay in my stable alerts I had "STR likes" for the life of me can't find the post that you mentioned it.

[batt33]

I remember the name.... Cant remember why lol...

looked at my notes ... STR! Thanks !

[batt33]

35K 50K CLM. Looks like rain.

I remember the name.... Cant remember why lol...

[Madison]

Askari TP R9

35K 50K CLM. Looks like rain.

[JBEX]

It seems to me that some of these AM's that do not win within 4-5 starts are horses that are state breds and the trainers/owners do not want to drop down for class relief for fear of losing them in the claim box. I understand that but it makes it tough on the horse who is asked to improve through being well beaten.
Kind of a double edged sword if you ask me.

at mahoning today they have 4 allowance races ..3 of them are open 3up n2 or 3L with purses around $26k ..the other for ohio bred "3YO only" fillies has a $40k+ purse..not a small difference and you get to avoid older horses and run vs statebreds

[JBEX]

Yeah, I agree.

They call them whatever BRED, but it is really where they land when they are born, not conceived.

I wonder if anyone ever said the mare had the foal in the van while going to a certain state, they pulled over just before birth and happened to be right on the state line between NJ and N.Y.
That way they might be both. Lolol. Have to think some racetracker tried it.

that would certainly be the border to be at lol..ny is the best and I would think nj,md and pennsylvania are probably contenders for 2nd to 4th

[JBEX]

From a betting perspective, if you did not play these state breds that are kind of trapped in this situation, I have to think the ROI with most of the others is decent. And because it seems that as many are 8, to 10-1 or higher, it would be interesting to see a win/place ROI on selective plays. I'm not much of a place, show bettor but that is up to the individual. And it seems we see quite a few that run 2nd at 30-1 or whatever. That might work. Certainly playing those that fit races well would seem to fit as well in that, it does not seem that then public is aware of this situation. IDK. Maybe they are but with a 10.00 win mutual on the Linda Rice 2nd time starter who won from the 1 post first out at Aqueduct the other day, that one was certainly overlooked. I was really surprised at that price.

at big odds they are probably great horses to key in 3rd and 4th in verticals .. i've always been a big fan in general of that strategy .. WP figure there's a lot of potential to move forward when they're lightly raced and flash some talent or are stepping up aggressively ..imo want them a little bit camouflaged to get some value

[str]

guess when they use a ky sire like AM (in ohio) they want to give the horse every chance to be good enough to run in statebred stakes races especially for a young 3yo ..much more lucrative if successful..if it doesn't work out there's the low tag claiming races and if they do well at that level good chance they'll lose the horse to a claim anyway .. in general (everywhere) i think with army mule's running in sb programs (except ny) giving it more than avg chances to be good makes some sense..huge difference in earnings potential over the course of their career

I think he's a perfect sire to breed to for mid-atlantic track sb programs if they allow horses by out of state sires in sb races which I believe is at least mostly the case .. not too expensive but also not a $10k sire either plus we feel he's an overachiever at the $20k fee anyway




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Yeah, I agree.

They call them whatever BRED, but it is really where they land when they are born, not conceived.

I wonder if anyone ever said the mare had the foal in the van while going to a certain state, they pulled over just before birth and happened to be right on the state line between NJ and N.Y.
That way they might be both. Lolol. Have to think some racetracker tried it.

[JBEX]

by army mule..weds gulfstream R9 #5 molly's a bullet (8-1)
@ 5:06


full sister to bel pensiero who missed by a nose last Sunday at the same distance and surface..making her 9th career start and still a maiden .. just don't want it confused that because I gave the pedigree info that she was a first time starter..feel she's priced about right (ml)




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scratched

[JBEX]

It seems to me that some of these AM's that do not win within 4-5 starts are horses that are state breds and the trainers/owners do not want to drop down for class relief for fear of losing them in the claim box. I understand that but it makes it tough on the horse who is asked to improve through being well beaten.
Kind of a double edged sword if you ask me.

guess when they use a ky sire like AM (in ohio) they want to give the horse every chance to be good enough to run in statebred stakes races especially for a young 3yo ..much more lucrative if successful..if it doesn't work out there's the low tag claiming races and if they do well at that level good chance they'll lose the horse to a claim anyway .. in general (everywhere) i think with army mule's running in sb programs (except ny) giving it more than avg chances to be good makes some sense..huge difference in earnings potential over the course of their career

I think he's a perfect sire to breed to for mid-atlantic track sb programs if they allow horses by out of state sires in sb races which I believe is at least mostly the case .. not too expensive but also not a $10k sire either plus we feel he's an overachiever at the $20k fee anyway




.

[str]

It seems to me that some of these AM's that do not win within 4-5 starts are horses that are state breds and the trainers/owners do not want to drop down for class relief for fear of losing them in the claim box. I understand that but it makes it tough on the horse who is asked to improve through being well beaten.
Kind of a double edged sword if you ask me.

From a betting perspective, if you did not play these state breds that are kind of trapped in this situation, I have to think the ROI with most of the others is decent. And because it seems that as many are 8, to 10-1 or higher, it would be interesting to see a win/place ROI on selective plays. I'm not much of a place, show bettor but that is up to the individual. And it seems we see quite a few that run 2nd at 30-1 or whatever. That might work. Certainly playing those that fit races well would seem to fit as well in that, it does not seem that then public is aware of this situation. IDK. Maybe they are but with a 10.00 win mutual on the Linda Rice 2nd time starter who won from the 1 post first out at Aqueduct the other day, that one was certainly overlooked. I was really surprised at that price.