Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

by army mule..oak R10 #9 war mule (30-1)@ 6:23

arkansas bred who broke his maiden first out (last start) vs statebred msw..it was a muddy track and he earned a very low figure explains why the ml is so high

racing canceled after R5 due to bad weather

[batt33]

I think I'm about to give up.

I liked FG R9 #2 Cromwell. Didn't think he could be off the board. He has usually come from well back to be 2nd. Blinkers on he breaks stalking for 3rd with the 2 speed horses. I play 2/1357 and same with him 2nd and 3rd for $2 figuring he'd get stuck and grab a piece. He gets caught late for 3rd by the 1 and it runs 5/7/1/2. The .50 tri pays $150. That's a $600 beat by a horse I was cursing I didn't pound w/p/s on the break. How does a horse regress 10 lenghts in 3 weeks against the same competition??

BOL to all.

I feel ya Madison.... Been there myself wondering how a horse finishes off the board....

[Madison]

I think I'm about to give up.

I liked FG R9 #2 Cromwell. Didn't think he could be off the board. He has usually come from well back to be 2nd. Blinkers on he breaks stalking for 3rd with the 2 speed horses. I play 2/1357 and same with him 2nd and 3rd for $2 figuring he'd get stuck and grab a piece. He gets caught late for 3rd by the 1 and it runs 5/7/1/2. The .50 tri pays $150. That's a $600 beat by a horse I was cursing I didn't pound w/p/s on the break. How does a horse regress 10 lenghts in 3 weeks against the same competition??

BOL to all.

[JBEX]

I guess it explains it.

My first thought was the oddsmaker was high. Lol.

didn't do it cruising on an easy lead either..guess he feels the public won't weigh the ky sire part very heavily..definitely an interesting bet at high odds

[batt33]

I had to do a double take today at Fair grounds. Something I don't think I've ever seen... Warrior Johny was entered in both the 11th and 12th races. He scratched out of race 12.

I always thought you had to declare before entries were taken.

[str]

field is almost completely made up of very cheap stallions except the army mule runner who not only won first out but is also a 3yo (forward potential)


by army mule..oak R10 #9 war mule (30-1)@ 6:23

arkansas bred who broke his maiden first out (last start) vs statebred msw..it was a muddy track and he earned a very low figure explains why the ml is so high
.

I guess it explains it.

My first thought was the oddsmaker was high. Lol.

[JBEX]

by army mule..oak R10 #9 war mule (30-1)@ 6:23

arkansas bred who broke his maiden first out (last start) vs statebred msw..it was a muddy track and he earned a very low figure explains why the ml is so high

field is almost completely made up of very cheap stallions except the army mule runner who not only won first out but is also a 3yo (forward potential)



.

[JBEX]

by army mule..oak R10 #9 war mule (30-1)@ 6:23

arkansas bred who broke his maiden first out (last start) vs statebred msw..it was a muddy track and he earned a very low figure explains why the ml is so high

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR did you ever sign up to the above site?

[Easy-Rider 66]

[batt33]

Straight No Chaser stretching his legs...

[batt33]

Another thing to mention for those that have not heard this here before is that this time of year, when races are written for 3 and 4 yr. old horses, the rule of thumb is with claiming maidens, a handicapper should take a close look at the 4 yr. olds vs. the 3 yr. olds especially going long. I know... where was this tip last week before the race ? I wish I had said it then, and have in the past, more than once but it is still a real handicapping tool to have until about May. Maiden special weights and allowance conditions is not necessarily the same at all so this is for only the races I mentioned. Don't mix the two different ages /conditions. It's apples and oranges. If this confuses anyone, let me know . It is all in this thread but realize it is long.

This horse had the following things going for her in that race.
First time stretch out.
High sale priced baby which tells you how solid the bloodlines are. Not a sore or problem filled horse, just a horse in search for the proper level.
Blinkers ON
Very solid jockey

If you look at the fractions of the last sprint and the mile race, you can see that she ran pretty much the same pace at the 1/2 mile and 3/4's times. Equate that beforehand and it was there to see but you have to look for it. Hope that makes sense.

Looks like they will run back for 50k non winners of two going long. That sounds like a nice spot for her.

Congrats Batt ! Nice win.

Thanks STR!

One other thing I would mention is foaling month... Being an April foal she could be up to 3 months behind others in her age group. A bigger factor early in their careers of course.

I know from the commercial selling / buying point the later the foal the bigger the discount.... as a general rule.

[str]

lots of turf races,off tracks and other excuses imo..back 3-5 weeks ,go a little shorter,remain on the dirt (have to this time of year) think he could get it done within his next 3 starts..not a superstar but a useful horse that can often run nice races







.

Absolutely.

[str]

I remember Ferris Muler. We have talked about this one before. Just saw the chart and yes, that 7/8ths could set him up nicely for a cutback to 6 or 6 1/2. He most likely WILL improve next out as you know. Problem is, this is a horse that they are happy making money with the inflated purses for NY breds in that Maiden Special rank. I used to really dislike that but my mindset was always winning and not " getting checks" as they called it and, the purses were not near that big.
Where I usually knock that, in this exact case, I do get it. This horse could easily make over 150k by hanging around the MSW NY bred category and when he does finally win, rinse and repeat with the n/w of 2 lifetime NY breds. He made 4,440 yesterday.
Not the best for the horse as he will never learn how to win but... it is best for the ownership I guess , so I get it.

Again, I'm very surprised if he does not run a better race, number wise, whatever wise, next out hopefully in about 3 weeks or so.

I just saw his PP's. I remember having claimed a couple of cheap maidens that were 0 for a bunch of cheap races and getting 2 straight wins out of both. I got all sorts of compliments but all I did was give them a chance to thrive. They did it, not me.
That was exactly this. This horse is trying, no shock there being by Army Mule. He is making about 50k so far and never really had a chance. He will eventually win about 40k when he wins. So close to 100k and still having nw/2 lifetime to do it all over again.
I see he is still a horse and not gelded at age 5, yet gets 2 months off between races. That is ridiculous! Geld him and he will lose about 100 pounds which will help him, his legs, his breathing, etc. He will also gain about a ton of focus. Jeez, that deserves a C'mon Man ! This horse tries every race. The connections do not know how special that can be. IDK, maybe they do. But throw him a bone man.

He will feel so much better than he currently does. But here I go training again. Let the ship sail and sink str. Ok, I'm done. Lol.

[JBEX]

I remember Ferris Muler. We have talked about this one before. Just saw the chart and yes, that 7/8ths could set him up nicely for a cutback to 6 or 6 1/2. He most likely WILL improve next out as you know. Problem is, this is a horse that they are happy making money with the inflated purses for NY breds in that Maiden Special rank. I used to really dislike that but my mindset was always winning and not " getting checks" as they called it and, the purses were not near that big.
Where I usually knock that, in this exact case, I do get it. This horse could easily make over 150k by hanging around the MSW NY bred category and when he does finally win, rinse and repeat with the n/w of 2 lifetime NY breds. He made 4,440 yesterday.
Not the best for the horse as he will never learn how to win but... it is best for the ownership I guess , so I get it.

Again, I'm very surprised if he does not run a better race, number wise, whatever wise, next out hopefully in about 3 weeks or so.

lots of turf races,off tracks and other excuses imo..back 3-5 weeks ,go a little shorter,remain on the dirt (have to this time of year) think he could get it done within his next 3 starts..not a superstar but a useful horse that can often run nice races







.

[str]

no problem str

in R4 ferris muler (off 15-1) battled on the front end and was within 2 lengths at the stretch call @ 7f..wound up 4th by 7 lengths..probably nicely set up for a cutback to 6f

the other R7 forward move did very little


.

I remember Ferris Muler. We have talked about this one before. Just saw the chart and yes, that 7/8ths could set him up nicely for a cutback to 6 or 6 1/2. He most likely WILL improve next out as you know. Problem is, this is a horse that they are happy making money with the inflated purses for NY breds in that Maiden Special rank. I used to really dislike that but my mindset was always winning and not " getting checks" as they called it and, the purses were not near that big.
Where I usually knock that, in this exact case, I do get it. This horse could easily make over 150k by hanging around the MSW NY bred category and when he does finally win, rinse and repeat with the n/w of 2 lifetime NY breds. He made 4,440 yesterday.
Not the best for the horse as he will never learn how to win but... it is best for the ownership I guess , so I get it.

Again, I'm very surprised if he does not run a better race, number wise, whatever wise, next out hopefully in about 3 weeks or so.

[JBEX]

That does not seem to happen that often even if they are 15-1 and 9-1 or does it?

It will be interesting to see how others do. Typically they are very consistent at trying no matter the odds.

Thanks JBEX.

no problem str

in R4 ferris muler (off 15-1) battled on the front end and was within 2 lengths at the stretch call @ 7f..wound up 4th by 7 lengths..probably nicely set up for a cutback to 6f

the other R7 forward move did very little


.

[str]

[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Arrived at Sunland
[/COLOR]

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/IMG1671_1739499921803/MP4/IMG1671_1739499921803.mp4

Caldera arrived at Sunland Park in good order this evening and has settled right into his new digs. Enjoy the video above.

Ahh man. Classic horse making a new stall home. Digs to add padding for the body, rolls, gets up , looks out, gets some water, probably rolled again. And looking for a hay rack if he is allowed to have hay. If not, probably a toy hanging there.

Thanks Batt. Love seeing the barn stuff. Always a heart squeeze for me.

[str]

thanks str

I get what you're saying and certainly wouldn't be on the forefront of my thoughts coming at it from a handicappers point of view ..it is great info to know in general for when you cap these type of races which generally speaking I like to do ..as you know these are the typical races that are run at most tracks especially on weekdays

I do kind of feel his last race ,especially, was similiar to the race prior to his last win (including the class drop) and the trainer who currently has him seems decent by his record..right or wrong i get what you're saying about being a little leary when these cheap claimers change hands and possibly exposed to less than ideal preparation vs more expensive horses .. I feel that's the main takeaway here with this discussion and a very valid thing to keep in mind .. I definitely like to see a trainer with at least a decent record when playing a horse in these type of races ..not 4-7% over a large sample although even those guys will pop with a big number here and there

This is something that I learned as a trainer but never would have realized as a handicapper I don't think. Just don't see how I could have seen through to that angle without being a part of it . But trust me, in these claimers and not Saratoga but everyday tracks, it is very real.
And the weaker the track, the stronger the angle typically is.

[str]

[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Sweet Voyage Post-Race Follow-Up[/COLOR]

Sweet Voyage has exited Wednesday’s win in good order. She earned a 67 Beyer Speed Figure—about what we expected and faster than par for that level.
We will be pointing her to a $50K claimer for non-winners of two going the same one-mile distance on Mar. 7. We feel strongly that this is the proper spot for her and would expect her to fit well there. An allowance would still be a bit ambitious for her off of a win at the maiden $30K level, but there’s no reason she can’t work her way back up the class ladder from here.

Another thing to mention for those that have not heard this here before is that this time of year, when races are written for 3 and 4 yr. old horses, the rule of thumb is with claiming maidens, a handicapper should take a close look at the 4 yr. olds vs. the 3 yr. olds especially going long. I know... where was this tip last week before the race ? I wish I had said it then, and have in the past, more than once but it is still a real handicapping tool to have until about May. Maiden special weights and allowance conditions is not necessarily the same at all so this is for only the races I mentioned. Don't mix the two different ages /conditions. It's apples and oranges. If this confuses anyone, let me know . It is all in this thread but realize it is long.

This horse had the following things going for her in that race.
First time stretch out.
High sale priced baby which tells you how solid the bloodlines are. Not a sore or problem filled horse, just a horse in search for the proper level.
Blinkers ON
Very solid jockey

If you look at the fractions of the last sprint and the mile race, you can see that she ran pretty much the same pace at the 1/2 mile and 3/4's times. Equate that beforehand and it was there to see but you have to look for it. Hope that makes sense.

Looks like they will run back for 50k non winners of two going long. That sounds like a nice spot for her.

Congrats Batt ! Nice win.