Horse Racing questions and answers

[batt33]

Straight No Chaser stretching his legs...

[batt33]

Another thing to mention for those that have not heard this here before is that this time of year, when races are written for 3 and 4 yr. old horses, the rule of thumb is with claiming maidens, a handicapper should take a close look at the 4 yr. olds vs. the 3 yr. olds especially going long. I know... where was this tip last week before the race ? I wish I had said it then, and have in the past, more than once but it is still a real handicapping tool to have until about May. Maiden special weights and allowance conditions is not necessarily the same at all so this is for only the races I mentioned. Don't mix the two different ages /conditions. It's apples and oranges. If this confuses anyone, let me know . It is all in this thread but realize it is long.

This horse had the following things going for her in that race.
First time stretch out.
High sale priced baby which tells you how solid the bloodlines are. Not a sore or problem filled horse, just a horse in search for the proper level.
Blinkers ON
Very solid jockey

If you look at the fractions of the last sprint and the mile race, you can see that she ran pretty much the same pace at the 1/2 mile and 3/4's times. Equate that beforehand and it was there to see but you have to look for it. Hope that makes sense.

Looks like they will run back for 50k non winners of two going long. That sounds like a nice spot for her.

Congrats Batt ! Nice win.

Thanks STR!

One other thing I would mention is foaling month... Being an April foal she could be up to 3 months behind others in her age group. A bigger factor early in their careers of course.

I know from the commercial selling / buying point the later the foal the bigger the discount.... as a general rule.

[str]

lots of turf races,off tracks and other excuses imo..back 3-5 weeks ,go a little shorter,remain on the dirt (have to this time of year) think he could get it done within his next 3 starts..not a superstar but a useful horse that can often run nice races







.

Absolutely.

[str]

I remember Ferris Muler. We have talked about this one before. Just saw the chart and yes, that 7/8ths could set him up nicely for a cutback to 6 or 6 1/2. He most likely WILL improve next out as you know. Problem is, this is a horse that they are happy making money with the inflated purses for NY breds in that Maiden Special rank. I used to really dislike that but my mindset was always winning and not " getting checks" as they called it and, the purses were not near that big.
Where I usually knock that, in this exact case, I do get it. This horse could easily make over 150k by hanging around the MSW NY bred category and when he does finally win, rinse and repeat with the n/w of 2 lifetime NY breds. He made 4,440 yesterday.
Not the best for the horse as he will never learn how to win but... it is best for the ownership I guess , so I get it.

Again, I'm very surprised if he does not run a better race, number wise, whatever wise, next out hopefully in about 3 weeks or so.

I just saw his PP's. I remember having claimed a couple of cheap maidens that were 0 for a bunch of cheap races and getting 2 straight wins out of both. I got all sorts of compliments but all I did was give them a chance to thrive. They did it, not me.
That was exactly this. This horse is trying, no shock there being by Army Mule. He is making about 50k so far and never really had a chance. He will eventually win about 40k when he wins. So close to 100k and still having nw/2 lifetime to do it all over again.
I see he is still a horse and not gelded at age 5, yet gets 2 months off between races. That is ridiculous! Geld him and he will lose about 100 pounds which will help him, his legs, his breathing, etc. He will also gain about a ton of focus. Jeez, that deserves a C'mon Man ! This horse tries every race. The connections do not know how special that can be. IDK, maybe they do. But throw him a bone man.

He will feel so much better than he currently does. But here I go training again. Let the ship sail and sink str. Ok, I'm done. Lol.

[JBEX]

I remember Ferris Muler. We have talked about this one before. Just saw the chart and yes, that 7/8ths could set him up nicely for a cutback to 6 or 6 1/2. He most likely WILL improve next out as you know. Problem is, this is a horse that they are happy making money with the inflated purses for NY breds in that Maiden Special rank. I used to really dislike that but my mindset was always winning and not " getting checks" as they called it and, the purses were not near that big.
Where I usually knock that, in this exact case, I do get it. This horse could easily make over 150k by hanging around the MSW NY bred category and when he does finally win, rinse and repeat with the n/w of 2 lifetime NY breds. He made 4,440 yesterday.
Not the best for the horse as he will never learn how to win but... it is best for the ownership I guess , so I get it.

Again, I'm very surprised if he does not run a better race, number wise, whatever wise, next out hopefully in about 3 weeks or so.

lots of turf races,off tracks and other excuses imo..back 3-5 weeks ,go a little shorter,remain on the dirt (have to this time of year) think he could get it done within his next 3 starts..not a superstar but a useful horse that can often run nice races







.

[str]

no problem str

in R4 ferris muler (off 15-1) battled on the front end and was within 2 lengths at the stretch call @ 7f..wound up 4th by 7 lengths..probably nicely set up for a cutback to 6f

the other R7 forward move did very little


.

I remember Ferris Muler. We have talked about this one before. Just saw the chart and yes, that 7/8ths could set him up nicely for a cutback to 6 or 6 1/2. He most likely WILL improve next out as you know. Problem is, this is a horse that they are happy making money with the inflated purses for NY breds in that Maiden Special rank. I used to really dislike that but my mindset was always winning and not " getting checks" as they called it and, the purses were not near that big.
Where I usually knock that, in this exact case, I do get it. This horse could easily make over 150k by hanging around the MSW NY bred category and when he does finally win, rinse and repeat with the n/w of 2 lifetime NY breds. He made 4,440 yesterday.
Not the best for the horse as he will never learn how to win but... it is best for the ownership I guess , so I get it.

Again, I'm very surprised if he does not run a better race, number wise, whatever wise, next out hopefully in about 3 weeks or so.

[JBEX]

That does not seem to happen that often even if they are 15-1 and 9-1 or does it?

It will be interesting to see how others do. Typically they are very consistent at trying no matter the odds.

Thanks JBEX.

no problem str

in R4 ferris muler (off 15-1) battled on the front end and was within 2 lengths at the stretch call @ 7f..wound up 4th by 7 lengths..probably nicely set up for a cutback to 6f

the other R7 forward move did very little


.

[str]

[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Arrived at Sunland
[/COLOR]

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/IMG1671_1739499921803/MP4/IMG1671_1739499921803.mp4

Caldera arrived at Sunland Park in good order this evening and has settled right into his new digs. Enjoy the video above.

Ahh man. Classic horse making a new stall home. Digs to add padding for the body, rolls, gets up , looks out, gets some water, probably rolled again. And looking for a hay rack if he is allowed to have hay. If not, probably a toy hanging there.

Thanks Batt. Love seeing the barn stuff. Always a heart squeeze for me.

[str]

thanks str

I get what you're saying and certainly wouldn't be on the forefront of my thoughts coming at it from a handicappers point of view ..it is great info to know in general for when you cap these type of races which generally speaking I like to do ..as you know these are the typical races that are run at most tracks especially on weekdays

I do kind of feel his last race ,especially, was similiar to the race prior to his last win (including the class drop) and the trainer who currently has him seems decent by his record..right or wrong i get what you're saying about being a little leary when these cheap claimers change hands and possibly exposed to less than ideal preparation vs more expensive horses .. I feel that's the main takeaway here with this discussion and a very valid thing to keep in mind .. I definitely like to see a trainer with at least a decent record when playing a horse in these type of races ..not 4-7% over a large sample although even those guys will pop with a big number here and there

This is something that I learned as a trainer but never would have realized as a handicapper I don't think. Just don't see how I could have seen through to that angle without being a part of it . But trust me, in these claimers and not Saratoga but everyday tracks, it is very real.
And the weaker the track, the stronger the angle typically is.

[str]

[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Sweet Voyage Post-Race Follow-Up[/COLOR]

Sweet Voyage has exited Wednesday’s win in good order. She earned a 67 Beyer Speed Figure—about what we expected and faster than par for that level.
We will be pointing her to a $50K claimer for non-winners of two going the same one-mile distance on Mar. 7. We feel strongly that this is the proper spot for her and would expect her to fit well there. An allowance would still be a bit ambitious for her off of a win at the maiden $30K level, but there’s no reason she can’t work her way back up the class ladder from here.

Another thing to mention for those that have not heard this here before is that this time of year, when races are written for 3 and 4 yr. old horses, the rule of thumb is with claiming maidens, a handicapper should take a close look at the 4 yr. olds vs. the 3 yr. olds especially going long. I know... where was this tip last week before the race ? I wish I had said it then, and have in the past, more than once but it is still a real handicapping tool to have until about May. Maiden special weights and allowance conditions is not necessarily the same at all so this is for only the races I mentioned. Don't mix the two different ages /conditions. It's apples and oranges. If this confuses anyone, let me know . It is all in this thread but realize it is long.

This horse had the following things going for her in that race.
First time stretch out.
High sale priced baby which tells you how solid the bloodlines are. Not a sore or problem filled horse, just a horse in search for the proper level.
Blinkers ON
Very solid jockey

If you look at the fractions of the last sprint and the mile race, you can see that she ran pretty much the same pace at the 1/2 mile and 3/4's times. Equate that beforehand and it was there to see but you have to look for it. Hope that makes sense.

Looks like they will run back for 50k non winners of two going long. That sounds like a nice spot for her.

Congrats Batt ! Nice win.

[str]

2 horses by army mule finished out of the money at aqueduct today..15-1 and 9-1

That does not seem to happen that often even if they are 15-1 and 9-1 or does it?

It will be interesting to see how others do. Typically they are very consistent at trying no matter the odds.

Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

2 horses by army mule finished out of the money at aqueduct today..15-1 and 9-1

[batt33]

[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Arrived at Sunland
[/COLOR]

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/IMG1671_1739499921803/MP4/IMG1671_1739499921803.mp4

Caldera arrived at Sunland Park in good order this evening and has settled right into his new digs. Enjoy the video above.

[batt33]

[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Sweet Voyage Post-Race Follow-Up[/COLOR]

Sweet Voyage has exited Wednesday’s win in good order. She earned a 67 Beyer Speed Figure—about what we expected and faster than par for that level.
We will be pointing her to a $50K claimer for non-winners of two going the same one-mile distance on Mar. 7. We feel strongly that this is the proper spot for her and would expect her to fit well there. An allowance would still be a bit ambitious for her off of a win at the maiden $30K level, but there’s no reason she can’t work her way back up the class ladder from here.

[JBEX]

Several things to address. The 2 for 2 coming back could certainly have been due to the training schedule and specific prepping by that trainer. But when these horses get claimed, the training usually changes, sometimes drastically. That does not happen in the big stakes races or higher quality horses as a rule. Most of those are trained somewhat the same. And that is, with no expense spared. Outfits with more money to pay help to do something specific for a horse.

For instance, Batt's horses he shows us, are in company when needed, pony when needed, correct equipment, out on the track at the better times of day, etc. Sometimes these cheap horses trained by cheaper outfits might miss a day of training because the trainer cannot afford to give the rider 10 bucks to gallop them. Or the rider gets on the guys horses as a side hustle after he is finished with his main job which has the horse training at 9:50 AM on a cut up track or not at all because he was tied up at the other barn and could not get by to get on the horse. Or the groom didn't show up , the trainer didn't show up , whatever.
So when you get to a lesser quality horse, and certainly to a lesser quality track, not that the fairgrounds is, but it's not Saratoga either, money comes into play. Some trainers do it the " right" way, meaning they train daily and run a barn similar to the higher priced barns. But when you get to medium tracks, like FG, you will have your top horsemen, decent horsemen, and your low end, low budget trainers. It's all about money available to do the job correctly, or cut corners. I have no idea who the trainer is. Could have 50 horses, or 2. So this is more of a general answer than an exact one. I think that once you see a horse getting claimed around, you need to know the trainers somewhat to be able to determine if the same pattern has a chance to hold from trainer A to trainer B.

As you know, I do like spotting running patterns with horses. It does work sometimes. But when a horse like this that has limited wins and gets claimed around like this one did, chances are pretty good that it is being trained differently and therefore cannot stay as consistent from barn to barn with the same patterns.
Now, if this horse was 7 or 8 years old with a dozen wins, then maybe because the horse is taking care of itself and is an old vet. But in this case, there IMO, is not enough winning to be able to compare and too many trainers that are running in low end beaten races with a horse that just turned 5 but has been passed around and without being at all familiar with the trainers and how they train, it is impossible for me to draw a conclusion or similarity in days off, or waking up from a dull effort.

I do hope that makes some sense. I know what I am trying to say but I'm not sure I am saying it well enough for you.

Let me know if that makes sense or not. It's kind of important to understand where I am going with this. These cheaper horses can go on and off form much more readily than the better quality horses. And at least half of the time it is not the horse, it is the connections either doing things just right and the horse responds positively, or screwing things up and the horse can only respond negatively.


And as for the eligibility on the conditions? Yes. The 5,000 or less not considered, is most likely correct.

thanks str

I get what you're saying and certainly wouldn't be on the forefront of my thoughts coming at it from a handicappers point of view ..it is great info to know in general for when you cap these type of races which generally speaking I like to do ..as you know these are the typical races that are run at most tracks especially on weekdays

I do kind of feel his last race ,especially, was similiar to the race prior to his last win (including the class drop) and the trainer who currently has him seems decent by his record..right or wrong i get what you're saying about being a little leary when these cheap claimers change hands and possibly exposed to less than ideal preparation vs more expensive horses .. I feel that's the main takeaway here with this discussion and a very valid thing to keep in mind .. I definitely like to see a trainer with at least a decent record when playing a horse in these type of races ..not 4-7% over a large sample although even those guys will pop with a big number here and there

[str]

hey str

fairgrounds R5 @ 3:45..#6 julia's warrior (8-1) realize I like doing this and you may not agree it's meaningful..whenever this horse combined lengths behind last 2 calls is between 10-15 and he returns in the same amount of days (10-15) he's 2 for 2 (fact days and lengths is the same just a coincidence and has no relevancy to me) ..one other time (16d/13.5L) he cut back and just missed by a half length but I don't like that move .. he followed up that ,albeit off a 2 month layoff with a convincing win in a sprint

doing the same thing today and returning to the level of the claim ..also nicely in the middle time and lengths behind at 13 for both..curious what you think

only way this horse makes this condition i believe is if one of his first 2 wins was for a $5k or less tag

also thought you'd get a kick out of #7 reckless ransom..12 years old and an amazing record over that time ..great year in 2024..obviously this one has been very well managed by at least a good majority of the one's who have claimed him..I don't think he's a bad fit at all 2nd off short layoff


if you're busy no problem;it's a write-up for the race

Several things to address. The 2 for 2 coming back could certainly have been due to the training schedule and specific prepping by that trainer. But when these horses get claimed, the training usually changes, sometimes drastically. That does not happen in the big stakes races or higher quality horses as a rule. Most of those are trained somewhat the same. And that is, with no expense spared. Outfits with more money to pay help to do something specific for a horse.

For instance, Batt's horses he shows us, are in company when needed, pony when needed, correct equipment, out on the track at the better times of day, etc. Sometimes these cheap horses trained by cheaper outfits might miss a day of training because the trainer cannot afford to give the rider 10 bucks to gallop them. Or the rider gets on the guys horses as a side hustle after he is finished with his main job which has the horse training at 9:50 AM on a cut up track or not at all because he was tied up at the other barn and could not get by to get on the horse. Or the groom didn't show up , the trainer didn't show up , whatever.
So when you get to a lesser quality horse, and certainly to a lesser quality track, not that the fairgrounds is, but it's not Saratoga either, money comes into play. Some trainers do it the " right" way, meaning they train daily and run a barn similar to the higher priced barns. But when you get to medium tracks, like FG, you will have your top horsemen, decent horsemen, and your low end, low budget trainers. It's all about money available to do the job correctly, or cut corners. I have no idea who the trainer is. Could have 50 horses, or 2. So this is more of a general answer than an exact one. I think that once you see a horse getting claimed around, you need to know the trainers somewhat to be able to determine if the same pattern has a chance to hold from trainer A to trainer B.

As you know, I do like spotting running patterns with horses. It does work sometimes. But when a horse like this that has limited wins and gets claimed around like this one did, chances are pretty good that it is being trained differently and therefore cannot stay as consistent from barn to barn with the same patterns.
Now, if this horse was 7 or 8 years old with a dozen wins, then maybe because the horse is taking care of itself and is an old vet. But in this case, there IMO, is not enough winning to be able to compare and too many trainers that are running in low end beaten races with a horse that just turned 5 but has been passed around and without being at all familiar with the trainers and how they train, it is impossible for me to draw a conclusion or similarity in days off, or waking up from a dull effort.

I do hope that makes some sense. I know what I am trying to say but I'm not sure I am saying it well enough for you.

Let me know if that makes sense or not. It's kind of important to understand where I am going with this. These cheaper horses can go on and off form much more readily than the better quality horses. And at least half of the time it is not the horse, it is the connections either doing things just right and the horse responds positively, or screwing things up and the horse can only respond negatively.


And as for the eligibility on the conditions? Yes. The 5,000 or less not considered, is most likely correct.

[str]

Sorry I missed , I will catch up tomorrow.

[JBEX]

hey str

fairgrounds R5 @ 3:45..#6 julia's warrior (8-1) realize I like doing this and you may not agree it's meaningful..whenever this horse combined lengths behind last 2 calls is between 10-15 and he returns in the same amount of days (10-15) he's 2 for 2 (fact days and lengths is the same just a coincidence and has no relevancy to me) ..one other time (16d/13.5L) he cut back and just missed by a half length but I don't like that move .. he followed up that ,albeit off a 2 month layoff with a convincing win in a sprint

doing the same thing today and returning to the level of the claim ..also nicely in the middle time and lengths behind at 13 for both..curious what you think

only way this horse makes this condition i believe is if one of his first 2 wins was for a $5k or less tag

also thought you'd get a kick out of #7 reckless ransom..12 years old and an amazing record over that time ..great year in 2024..obviously this one has been very well managed by at least a good majority of the one's who have claimed him..I don't think he's a bad fit at all 2nd off short layoff


if you're busy no problem;it's a write-up for the race

mine out of money @ 12-1..the easy winner @ 1-5 won his last start by almost 8L in a clm 20kn3l and ran here for clm 7.5k n4l..my guess they were just trying to recover as much as they could off the expensive claim at oaklawn 4 back and this explains the big drop in class along with the quick return ..sure they weren't surprised they lost him to the claim

[batt33]

[QUOTE=JBEX;31397901]

congrats on the impressive win ! hopefully they'll find a good path forward for her so she can have continued success

Thanks JBEX! And STR!

[JBEX]

hey str

fairgrounds R5 @ 3:45..#6 julia's warrior (8-1) realize I like doing this and you may not agree it's meaningful..whenever this horse combined lengths behind last 2 calls is between 10-15 and he returns in the same amount of days (10-15) he's 2 for 2 (fact days and lengths is the same just a coincidence and has no relevancy to me) ..one other time (16d/13.5L) he cut back and just missed by a half length but I don't like that move .. he followed up that ,albeit off a 2 month layoff with a convincing win in a sprint

doing the same thing today and returning to the level of the claim ..also nicely in the middle time and lengths behind at 13 for both..curious what you think

only way this horse makes this condition i believe is if one of his first 2 wins was for a $5k or less tag

also thought you'd get a kick out of #7 reckless ransom..12 years old and an amazing record over that time ..great year in 2024..obviously this one has been very well managed by at least a good majority of the one's who have claimed him..I don't think he's a bad fit at all 2nd off short layoff


if you're busy no problem;it's a write-up for the race