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  • JBEX
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 01-02-12
    • 23449

    #5321
    probably just gulfstream tomorrow and saturday will be a triple header with dubai, florida and hong kong




    added another tourney play
    Comment
    • JBEX
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-02-12
      • 23449

      #5322
      added turfway park 4 8
      Comment
      • JBEX
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 01-02-12
        • 23449

        #5323
        gulfstream


        R1 #2 wahoowah (9-2)
        R2 #6 levy land (3-1)
        R3 #4 even beat (2-1)
        R4 #4 fafa foey (7-2)*
        R5 #10 jazzy beach (6-1)*
        R6 #5 highway flyer (7-2) *
        R7 pass
        R8 #7 rocketry (5-2)


        interesting resume..16 career races with the first 14 being on the turf.. first 2 races on the dirt
        he wins @ 1 5/8 miles @ belmont and then the breeders cup marathon @ 1 3/4 miles @ churchill..1 3/16 today so this is like a sprint to him.. has won at 1 1/4 miles having the lead at the stretch call and @ 1 1/8 was 2nd at the same call so shorter distance probably OK.. will be no great value though.. good for verticals



        R9 #2 dr edgar (4-1)
        R10 #1 marouba (12-1)

        graded stakes in france a little much for this gal.. but vs allowance and handicap horses competitive over there.. 1 3/8 miles vs grade 3 over here should be a good fit as domestic races are a step below the same level competition over there.. trainer was an assistant of one of the big guys who recently stepped out on her own.. worth a throw at a big price


        R11 #2 miss antonella (8-1)


        santa anita


        R5 #5 oggonis (8-1)


        all first time starters in this race and many high price tags..this one cost $750k which is always expensive but this ones pedigree specs don't warrant it..this is a big positive to me as i've mentioned before as usually
        means horse is something special physically ..working great but that's always a secondary thing with me
        Comment
        • JBEX
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-02-12
          • 23449

          #5324
          finished gulfstream
          Comment
          • JBEX
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-02-12
            • 23449

            #5325
            added santa anita 5
            Comment
            • JBEX
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 01-02-12
              • 23449

              #5326
              tS(tournament=NCAA,N=6)=2 and tournament=NCAA and p:ats margin <0 and pp:ats margin <0 and rest =4 and F


              sweet 16..
              non cover last 2..
              4 days rest..
              favorite



              0-3 o/u (-18.33)


              duke/v tech under143
              Comment
              • JBEX
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 01-02-12
                • 23449

                #5327
                meydan... 7:45 am 1st race

                R1 pass
                R2 #12 coal front (7-1)
                R3 #2 call the wind (3-1)


                R4 #2 sands of mali (8-1)
                R4 #3 lost treasure (20-1)
                R5 #3 golden jaguar (15-1)
                R5 #5 derma louvre (12-1)


                2 horses each R4 -5..these are extremely deep and difficult races.. small bets

                R6 pass
                R7 #3 deidre (15-1)
                R7 #6 lord glitters (20-1)

                2 horses R7


                R8 #3 magic wand (6-1)

                R9... $12M dubai world cup

                #10 yoshida (8-1)
                Comment
                • JBEX
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 01-02-12
                  • 23449

                  #5328
                  added R4-5
                  Comment
                  • JBEX
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 01-02-12
                    • 23449

                    #5329
                    finished meydan
                    Comment
                    • JBEX
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 01-02-12
                      • 23449

                      #5330
                      gulfstream

                      R3 #3 haunt (4-1)




                      R7 #9 dani's grace (20-1)
                      R8 #4 bella ciao (15-1)
                      R9 #1 go for a ride (12-1)

                      R11 #3 gleason (5-1)
                      R13 #9 bigger picture (6-1)?? don't get ml


                      R14 florida derby

                      #4 bourbon war (7-2)





                      santa anita


                      R4 #6 ellie arroway (8-1)
                      R10 #5 ameerah b (8-1)


                      both well bred expensive debut horses trained by sadler and ridden by baze.. not why i'm playing them but just happens to be so





                      _
                      Comment
                      • JBEX
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 01-02-12
                        • 23449

                        #5331
                        gulfstream 7-9 and florida derby
                        Comment
                        • JBEX
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 01-02-12
                          • 23449

                          #5332
                          added 11 13
                          Comment
                          • JBEX
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 01-02-12
                            • 23449

                            #5333
                            added santa anita
                            Comment
                            • JBEX
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 01-02-12
                              • 23449

                              #5334
                              couple of takeaways (not second guessing) from the florida derby.. the winner getting out to the front and slowing it down was not a far out possibility in this race ..sure hidden scroll could have been aggressively sent to the front but not a lot of other speed enlisted in this field...also jason servis is 23/67 1st attempt at a route

                              the 2nd place horse at 71-1 had a better last out figure in the brisnet's than the top 3 betting choices in this race.. it was on a fast track at 7f and he closed 3 lengths in the stretch.. the 7f is important to me as I definitely want that extra furlong with the 1 1/8 he's trying today..
                              Comment
                              • JBEX
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 01-02-12
                                • 23449

                                #5335
                                tS(tournament=NCAA,N=6)=3 and tournament=NCAA and p:ats margin >=10 and rest =1 and D and total >=133



                                3-10 o/u (-8.50)

                                2 overtimes in which 1 made the game go over and the other remained under anyway..adjusted numbers
                                more like 2-11 o/u (-11.9)..only conference matchup also went over (not in the query) so factoring would bring the number to 1-11 o/u (-13 ish)



                                duke/mich st under 151.5
                                Comment
                                • JBEX
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 01-02-12
                                  • 23449

                                  #5336
                                  tampa


                                  R2 #10 shanghai shuffle (7-2)
                                  R3 #9 ballie's dream (20-1) *
                                  R5 #1 march to the arch (3-1)

                                  R6 #7 ionic (6-1)
                                  R7 #6 jamaican (15-1)*
                                  R8 #2 mr wrench it (20-1)*


                                  R12 #10 storm protection (20-1) *

                                  gulfstream

                                  R5#2 get em up scout (9-2)*
                                  R6 #7 chiqui the gray (4-1)*
                                  R7 #8 victor lounge (5-2)


                                  oaklawn

                                  R7 #8 wrinkled rose (4-1)
                                  R9 #4 classic road (10-1)
                                  R9 #8 replete (15-1)*


                                  santa anita


                                  R7 #7 asaro (12-1)
                                  R9 #6 awesome amanda (7-2)*
                                  Comment
                                  • JBEX
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 01-02-12
                                    • 23449

                                    #5337
                                    still have to tally other .. all todays plays above


                                    3/31 sunday


                                    R3 #9 ballie's dream (20-1) 2WP
                                    R7 #6 jamaican (15-1) 1WP
                                    R8 #2 mr wrench it (20-1) 1WP

                                    R12 #10 storm protection (20-1) 1WP



                                    gulfstream

                                    R5 #2 get em up scout (9-2)2WP
                                    R6 #7 chiqui the gray (4-1)2WP




                                    oaklawn

                                    R9 #8 replete (15-1) 1WP



                                    santa anita

                                    R9 #6 awesome amanda (7-2)*




                                    parx monday 4/1





                                    R4 #7 he's incredible (3-1) 2WP

                                    R10 #1 lori's folly (30-1)1WP



                                    4/3 wednesday


                                    tampa





                                    R3 #8 school song (5-2)2WP
                                    R4 #8 top mission (8-1)2WP
                                    R10 #2 valentine nibbles (9-2)2WP






                                    Comment
                                    • JBEX
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 01-02-12
                                      • 23449

                                      #5338
                                      happy 30th birthday to ap indy...one of the all time great horses/sires combined.. that's gotta be up there for lifespan of a horse off the top of my head
                                      Comment
                                      • JBEX
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 01-02-12
                                        • 23449

                                        #5339
                                        added tampa and gulfstream.. just had an 8-1 and 44-1 finish in front of my 13-1 at tampa.. about 2 lengths behind winner
                                        Comment
                                        • dtp
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 09-17-09
                                          • 2106

                                          #5340
                                          Ballies Dream a nice pick today ran 3rd. Good horse could have won but still learning how to race
                                          Comment
                                          • JBEX
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 01-02-12
                                            • 23449

                                            #5341
                                            finished tampa
                                            Comment
                                            • JBEX
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 01-02-12
                                              • 23449

                                              #5342
                                              Originally posted by dtp
                                              Ballies Dream a nice pick today ran 3rd. Good horse could have won but still learning how to race


                                              thanks dtp... the 5 like most 40-1's tough to come up with and the other a 5/2 ml going off at 8-1 usually not a good sign either
                                              Comment
                                              • dtp
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 09-17-09
                                                • 2106

                                                #5343
                                                Yeah obv longshots do win and it's hard to predict. It just feels better when your horse runs well either way. You don't bet show on your picks? Show pays well sometimes like in this situation
                                                Comment
                                                • JBEX
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 01-02-12
                                                  • 23449

                                                  #5344
                                                  Originally posted by dtp
                                                  Yeah obv longshots do win and it's hard to predict. It just feels better when your horse runs well either way. You don't bet show on your picks? Show pays well sometimes like in this situation

                                                  when I used to read books about this a long time ago the consensus was that show is of no value over time.. remember the other side when your horse runs out you've saved money..different schools of thought but I've never been a show bettor
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JBEX
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 01-02-12
                                                    • 23449

                                                    #5345
                                                    added oaklawn 7
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JBEX
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 01-02-12
                                                      • 23449

                                                      #5346
                                                      added oaklawn 9
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JBEX
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 01-02-12
                                                        • 23449

                                                        #5347
                                                        added santa anita 7 9
                                                        Comment
                                                        • JBEX
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 01-02-12
                                                          • 23449

                                                          #5348
                                                          parx monday



                                                          R1 #4 march screamer (2-1)

                                                          broke maiden last out in his 5th career start.. it was the first time blinkers and fast track happened at the same time with this horse.. last out was at 7f and he was within 3 lengths at the first 2 calls.. today its mile 70 yards and got me thinking about the runner up in the florida derby at 71-1.. his last race was 7f also.. this one would have to travel 260 yards less to the wire.. unfortunately it will be at much lower odds


                                                          R4 #7 he's incredible (3-1) *
                                                          R5 #7 powerfully built (2-1)
                                                          R10 #1 lori's folly (30-1)*




                                                          mahoning

                                                          R1 #4 empiremeister (8-1)
                                                          R2 #3 lil' princessnellie (2-1)
                                                          R5 #1 heatherfromphoenx (3-1)
                                                          R7 #7 cascabria (5-1)
                                                          R8 #10 classic brew (8-1)

                                                          last time he came off a 53 day layoff 2 starts back he ran into a monster who won by 9 lengths and was about the same amount of lengths faster than par.. he ran an even 3rd and a repeat of that effort would do very well vs these... the 2nd place horse in that race came back to win next start and mine came back to run 2nd before being laid off (same race).. coming off about an 110 day layoff for this race






                                                          game number -o:game number =2 and game number <=5 and opo:runs <=3


                                                          kind of interesting..a team that's played <=5 games
                                                          that's played 2 more games than their opponent..their opponent allowed <=3 runs in their last game


                                                          0-6 o/u (-3.25)


                                                          pitt/stl under 7.5
                                                          Comment
                                                          • JBEX
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 01-02-12
                                                            • 23449

                                                            #5349
                                                            did mahoning
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JBEX
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 01-02-12
                                                              • 23449

                                                              #5350
                                                              added an afternoon mlb
                                                              Comment
                                                              • JBEX
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 01-02-12
                                                                • 23449

                                                                #5351
                                                                keeneland kicks off its spring meet thursday.. starts off with a 2 year old msw @ the usual 4.5f distance ..the combined cost of horses 1 - 10 is $33,600.. #11 horse ridden by jose ortiz cost a whopping $28k..no auction info on #12 but cheap pedigree.. then there's wesley ward in the 13 hole who has a $230k yearling who worked 34:1 bg two back at kee ... he's an also eligible but with all the cheap crap inside of him they'll probably be a scratch and he'll draw in.. there's usually predominantly cheap horses in these races but this is as extreme as I ever remember seeing.. no pick just pointing it out.. will be looking at the whole card tomorrow
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JBEX
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 01-02-12
                                                                  • 23449

                                                                  #5352
                                                                  tampa bay


                                                                  R2 #2 quickluckycoco (7-2)
                                                                  R3 #8 school song (5-2)*
                                                                  R4 #8 top mission (8-1)*
                                                                  R7 #3 desert spring (7-2)
                                                                  R8 #2 vaunt (4-1)
                                                                  R9 #7 cerro (2-1)

                                                                  looks like this one bought from the david jacobsen clearance sale.. hasn't race in 10 months and trainer is the owner.. only would have to be 70% of what he was to beat this field..we'll see if this 9yo has anything left in the tank.. maybe the below average trainer and 7lb bug rider will hide things a bit mutuelly


                                                                  R10 #2 valentine nibbles (9-2)*
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • JBEX
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 01-02-12
                                                                    • 23449

                                                                    #5353
                                                                    Originally posted by JBEX
                                                                    keeneland kicks off its spring meet thursday.. starts off with a 2 year old msw @ the usual 4.5f distance ..the combined cost of horses 1 - 10 is $33,600.. #11 horse ridden by jose ortiz cost a whopping $28k..no auction info on #12 but cheap pedigree.. then there's wesley ward in the 13 hole who has a $230k yearling who worked 34:1 bg two back at kee ... he's an also eligible but with all the cheap crap inside of him they'll probably be a scratch and he'll draw in.. there's usually predominantly cheap horses in these races but this is as extreme as I ever remember seeing.. no pick just pointing it out.. will be looking at the whole card tomorrow

                                                                    keeneland

                                                                    R1 #11 nurse maggie sue (7-2)

                                                                    2nd choice and probable favorite if ward doesn't draw in with #13 nayibeth.. not a workout person but for a 2yo in april to go 46.2 bg
                                                                    1/29 at keeneland and jose ortiz jumps aboard to ride says something ..nothing fancy this race, just top 2 even from the extreme outside posts

                                                                    R3 #5 storm ryder (15-1)

                                                                    don't get this ml.. being to swayed by the troubled trip 3yo debut.. his two 2yo races as bad as they look would translate well to this level of competition msw-mcl 50k to mcl 30k today.. he's a calumet homebred by oxbow which is one of there's.. the dam has had 4 winners from 5 starters and nothing special amongst them.. drop doesn't bother me.. solid gaffalione rides

                                                                    R4 #8 man of blues (20-1)
                                                                    R5 #2 instilled regard (6-5)

                                                                    not getting fancy here.. chad should blow them up @ odds on.. #5 frankincense (20-1) another ridiculous ml imo.. lightly raced homebred son of monster frankel ($223k stud fee.. euro conversion) who won his last two with a big closing kick.. 3rd place finisher in both of these races came back to win and possible others further back may have also.. with that pedigree could be anything going forward


                                                                    R6 #1 ulele (4-1)

                                                                    R7 #11 strike silver (12-1) half
                                                                    R7 #1 yes I am free (10-1) half


                                                                    R8 #4 trophy doll (5-1)



                                                                    santa anita

                                                                    R6 #3 urban light (8-1)
                                                                    R7 #1 hard to come home (6-1)
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JBEX
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 01-02-12
                                                                      • 23449

                                                                      #5354
                                                                      afternoon mlb


                                                                      game number <=15 and pp:runs =0 and ppp:runs =0 and A and -120<=line <= 190 and season >=2009

                                                                      team shutout 2 and 3 games back before game 15.. they're away with above line parameters and since 2009


                                                                      6-0 (5.50) big avg margin

                                                                      bos -104
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • JBEX
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 01-02-12
                                                                        • 23449

                                                                        #5355
                                                                        finished keeneland
                                                                        Comment
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