interesting resume..16 career races with the first 14 being on the turf.. first 2 races on the dirt
he wins @ 1 5/8 miles @ belmont and then the breeders cup marathon @ 1 3/4 miles @ churchill..1 3/16 today so this is like a sprint to him.. has won at 1 1/4 miles having the lead at the stretch call and @ 1 1/8 was 2nd at the same call so shorter distance probably OK.. will be no great value though.. good for verticals
R9 #2 dr edgar (4-1)
R10 #1 marouba (12-1)
graded stakes in france a little much for this gal.. but vs allowance and handicap horses competitive over there.. 1 3/8 miles vs grade 3 over here should be a good fit as domestic races are a step below the same level competition over there.. trainer was an assistant of one of the big guys who recently stepped out on her own.. worth a throw at a big price
R11 #2 miss antonella (8-1)
santa anita
R5 #5 oggonis (8-1)
all first time starters in this race and many high price tags..this one cost $750k which is always expensive but this ones pedigree specs don't warrant it..this is a big positive to me as i've mentioned before as usually
means horse is something special physically ..working great but that's always a secondary thing with me
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5324
finished gulfstream
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5325
added santa anita 5
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5326
tS(tournament=NCAA,N=6)=2 and tournament=NCAA and p:ats margin <0 and pp:ats margin <0 and rest =4 and F
sweet 16..
non cover last 2..
4 days rest..
favorite
0-3 o/u (-18.33)
duke/v tech under143
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5327
meydan... 7:45 am 1st race
R1 pass
R2 #12 coal front (7-1)
R3 #2 call the wind (3-1)
R4 #2 sands of mali (8-1) R4 #3 lost treasure (20-1) R5 #3 golden jaguar (15-1) R5 #5 derma louvre (12-1)
2 horses each R4 -5..these are extremely deep and difficult races.. small bets
R7 #9 dani's grace (20-1)
R8 #4 bella ciao (15-1)
R9 #1 go for a ride (12-1)
R11 #3 gleason (5-1)
R13 #9 bigger picture (6-1)?? don't get ml
R14 florida derby
#4 bourbon war (7-2)
santa anita
R4 #6 ellie arroway (8-1)
R10 #5 ameerah b (8-1)
both well bred expensive debut horses trained by sadler and ridden by baze.. not why i'm playing them but just happens to be so
_
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5331
gulfstream 7-9 and florida derby
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5332
added 11 13
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5333
added santa anita
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5334
couple of takeaways (not second guessing) from the florida derby.. the winner getting out to the front and slowing it down was not a far out possibility in this race ..sure hidden scroll could have been aggressively sent to the front but not a lot of other speed enlisted in this field...also jason servis is 23/67 1st attempt at a route
the 2nd place horse at 71-1 had a better last out figure in the brisnet's than the top 3 betting choices in this race.. it was on a fast track at 7f and he closed 3 lengths in the stretch.. the 7f is important to me as I definitely want that extra furlong with the 1 1/8 he's trying today..
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5335
tS(tournament=NCAA,N=6)=3 and tournament=NCAA and p:ats margin >=10 and rest =1 and D and total >=133
3-10 o/u (-8.50)
2 overtimes in which 1 made the game go over and the other remained under anyway..adjusted numbers
more like 2-11 o/u (-11.9)..only conference matchup also went over (not in the query) so factoring would bring the number to 1-11 o/u (-13 ish)
duke/mich st under 151.5
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5336
tampa
R2 #10 shanghai shuffle (7-2)
R3 #9 ballie's dream (20-1) *
R5 #1 march to the arch (3-1)
R5 #2 get em up scout (9-2)2WP
R6 #7 chiqui the gray (4-1)2WP
oaklawn
R9 #8 replete (15-1) 1WP
santa anita
R9 #6 awesome amanda (7-2)*
parx monday 4/1
R4 #7 he's incredible (3-1) 2WP
R10 #1 lori's folly (30-1)1WP
4/3 wednesday
tampa
R3 #8 school song (5-2)2WP
R4 #8 top mission (8-1)2WP
R10 #2 valentine nibbles (9-2)2WP
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5338
happy 30th birthday to ap indy...one of the all time great horses/sires combined.. that's gotta be up there for lifespan of a horse off the top of my head
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5339
added tampa and gulfstream.. just had an 8-1 and 44-1 finish in front of my 13-1 at tampa.. about 2 lengths behind winner
Comment
dtp
SBR MVP
09-17-09
2106
#5340
Ballies Dream a nice pick today ran 3rd. Good horse could have won but still learning how to race
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5341
finished tampa
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5342
Originally posted by dtp
Ballies Dream a nice pick today ran 3rd. Good horse could have won but still learning how to race
thanks dtp... the 5 like most 40-1's tough to come up with and the other a 5/2 ml going off at 8-1 usually not a good sign either
Comment
dtp
SBR MVP
09-17-09
2106
#5343
Yeah obv longshots do win and it's hard to predict. It just feels better when your horse runs well either way. You don't bet show on your picks? Show pays well sometimes like in this situation
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5344
Originally posted by dtp
Yeah obv longshots do win and it's hard to predict. It just feels better when your horse runs well either way. You don't bet show on your picks? Show pays well sometimes like in this situation
when I used to read books about this a long time ago the consensus was that show is of no value over time.. remember the other side when your horse runs out you've saved money..different schools of thought but I've never been a show bettor
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5345
added oaklawn 7
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5346
added oaklawn 9
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5347
added santa anita 7 9
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5348
parx monday
R1 #4 march screamer (2-1)
broke maiden last out in his 5th career start.. it was the first time blinkers and fast track happened at the same time with this horse.. last out was at 7f and he was within 3 lengths at the first 2 calls.. today its mile 70 yards and got me thinking about the runner up in the florida derby at 71-1.. his last race was 7f also.. this one would have to travel 260 yards less to the wire.. unfortunately it will be at much lower odds
last time he came off a 53 day layoff 2 starts back he ran into a monster who won by 9 lengths and was about the same amount of lengths faster than par.. he ran an even 3rd and a repeat of that effort would do very well vs these... the 2nd place horse in that race came back to win next start and mine came back to run 2nd before being laid off (same race).. coming off about an 110 day layoff for this race
game number -o:game number =2 and game number <=5 and opo:runs <=3
kind of interesting..a team that's played <=5 games
that's played 2 more games than their opponent..their opponent allowed <=3 runs in their last game
0-6 o/u (-3.25)
pitt/stl under 7.5
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5349
did mahoning
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5350
added an afternoon mlb
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5351
keeneland kicks off its spring meet thursday.. starts off with a 2 year old msw @ the usual 4.5f distance ..the combined cost of horses 1 - 10 is $33,600.. #11 horse ridden by jose ortiz cost a whopping $28k..no auction info on #12 but cheap pedigree.. then there's wesley ward in the 13 hole who has a $230k yearling who worked 34:1 bg two back at kee ... he's an also eligible but with all the cheap crap inside of him they'll probably be a scratch and he'll draw in.. there's usually predominantly cheap horses in these races but this is as extreme as I ever remember seeing.. no pick just pointing it out.. will be looking at the whole card tomorrow
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5352
tampa bay
R2 #2 quickluckycoco (7-2)
R3 #8 school song (5-2)*
R4 #8 top mission (8-1)*
R7 #3 desert spring (7-2)
R8 #2 vaunt (4-1)
R9 #7 cerro (2-1)
looks like this one bought from the david jacobsen clearance sale.. hasn't race in 10 months and trainer is the owner.. only would have to be 70% of what he was to beat this field..we'll see if this 9yo has anything left in the tank.. maybe the below average trainer and 7lb bug rider will hide things a bit mutuelly
R10 #2 valentine nibbles (9-2)*
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5353
Originally posted by JBEX
keeneland kicks off its spring meet thursday.. starts off with a 2 year old msw @ the usual 4.5f distance ..the combined cost of horses 1 - 10 is $33,600.. #11 horse ridden by jose ortiz cost a whopping $28k..no auction info on #12 but cheap pedigree.. then there's wesley ward in the 13 hole who has a $230k yearling who worked 34:1 bg two back at kee ... he's an also eligible but with all the cheap crap inside of him they'll probably be a scratch and he'll draw in.. there's usually predominantly cheap horses in these races but this is as extreme as I ever remember seeing.. no pick just pointing it out.. will be looking at the whole card tomorrow
keeneland
R1 #11 nurse maggie sue (7-2)
2nd choice and probable favorite if ward doesn't draw in with #13 nayibeth.. not a workout person but for a 2yo in april to go 46.2 bg
1/29 at keeneland and jose ortiz jumps aboard to ride says something ..nothing fancy this race, just top 2 even from the extreme outside posts
R3 #5 storm ryder (15-1)
don't get this ml.. being to swayed by the troubled trip 3yo debut.. his two 2yo races as bad as they look would translate well to this level of competition msw-mcl 50k to mcl 30k today.. he's a calumet homebred by oxbow which is one of there's.. the dam has had 4 winners from 5 starters and nothing special amongst them.. drop doesn't bother me.. solid gaffalione rides
R4 #8 man of blues (20-1)
R5 #2 instilled regard (6-5)
not getting fancy here.. chad should blow them up @ odds on.. #5 frankincense (20-1) another ridiculous ml imo.. lightly raced homebred son of monster frankel ($223k stud fee.. euro conversion) who won his last two with a big closing kick.. 3rd place finisher in both of these races came back to win and possible others further back may have also.. with that pedigree could be anything going forward
R6 #1 ulele (4-1)
R7 #11 strike silver (12-1) half
R7 #1 yes I am free (10-1) half
R8 #4 trophy doll (5-1)
santa anita
R6 #3 urban light (8-1)
R7 #1 hard to come home (6-1)
Comment
JBEX
SBR Posting Legend
01-02-12
23449
#5354
afternoon mlb
game number <=15 and pp:runs =0 and ppp:runs =0 and A and -120<=line <= 190 and season >=2009
team shutout 2 and 3 games back before game 15.. they're away with above line parameters and since 2009